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Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
2%
43 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%
120 forecasters
11
34 comments
34
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
2035
23 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?
Resolved :
No
0.1%
166 forecasters
27
36 comments
36
Red Lines in Ukraine