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5 comments
12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%
Anish Giri99.9%
R Praggnanandhaa99.9%
1 comment
13 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

33%chance
4% today
1 comment
20 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

2 comments
10 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

40%chance
45% this week
4 comments
1 forecaster

How much will using AI add to (or subtract from) the time it takes developers to do a task, in METR's second impact study?

Current estimate
3.41%
0 comments
19 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach β‰₯4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

128 comments
295 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

48%chance

Key Factors

15 comments
16 forecasters

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H3N283.6
H1N119.4
H5<0.1
1 comment
15 forecasters

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

10%chance
40% this week
16 comments
37 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate
1891 deaths