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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

2320 forecasters

248

176 comments176

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11

Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?

240 forecasters

51

What will be the largest number of digits of π to have ever been computed by December 31, 2025?

9

Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?

274 forecasters

41

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

270 forecasters

36

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

117 forecasters

33

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

242 forecasters

49

Will Singapore be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

4

When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?

5