MetaculusM

Questions
Tournaments

Leaderboards
News
create

Bridgewater 2025

AI Benchmarking

Topics

categories

See all categories

About
API

FAQ
forecasting resources
For Journalists

Careers

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?

5

Regulation of AI

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

7

Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

3

Chinese AI Chips

When will 6DoF enabled virtual and augmented reality headset sales exceed 50 million units per year?

3

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

11

122 comments122

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016?

Resolved :No51%

35

by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?

Resolved :No59%

132 forecasters

21

Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?

Resolved :No19%

108 forecasters

8

Image projection patent implemented in the new Nintendo Switch?

Resolved :No29%

3

50% hit rate for the Kepler optical planet detections?

Resolved :Ambiguous54%

9