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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
55 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
2 comments
36 forecasters

When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

Current estimate
04 Nov 2025

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

10
11 comment
6 comments
103 forecasters

Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?

Abu Dhabi67.6%
Qatar30.2%
Las Vegas2%
9 comments
88 forecasters

Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?

58%chance
3 comments
41 forecasters

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

Current estimate
61.1%
12 comments
86 forecasters

What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies?

TSLAresult: 0.39 $
AMD (annulled)Annulled
AAPL1.76
6 comments
45 forecasters

What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Current estimate
14.8 pp
3 comments
58 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet32.7%
OpenAI23.2%
Anthropic18%
99 comments
297 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

43%chance