Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Libya
Annulled
Haiti
?
52 others
34
210 comments
210
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Venezuela
?
Russia
?
United States
?
70 others
30
82 comments
82
Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?
Resolved :
No
3%
125 forecasters
6
7 comments
7
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO African region by March 27?
Resolved :
2.42k
2.36k
57 forecasters
11
20 comments
20
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?
Closed
5.45
103 forecasters
15
40 comments
40
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?
Resolved :
No
13%
45 forecasters
12
25 comments
25
Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?
Resolved :
No
1%
65 forecasters
15
13 comments
13
Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
Resolved :
No
1%
69 forecasters
9
27 comments
27
When will at least 10 countries formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state?
Jul 2045
23 forecasters
5
6 comments
6
Verity
Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?
Resolved :
No
3%
85 forecasters
14
22 comments
22
Future Perfect 2022 Series
Load More