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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
13
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
2
2
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0
comments
5
forecasters
When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?
Current estimate
May 2037
9
comments
40
forecasters
Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?
1
comment
40
forecasters
Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?
result
Yes
42
comments
143
forecasters
Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?
Together for the Republic
78.3%
Other
8.1%
No Prime Minister
3.9%
6 others
10%
4
comments
9
forecasters
Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?
111
comments
127
forecasters
What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
83.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
2
comments
44
forecasters
How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 5 days
1
comment
46
forecasters
Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?
PVV
49.3%
Gl/PvdA
22%
CDA
18.9%
5 others
10%
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