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Will humans go extinct before 2100?
0.6%
1443 forecasters
77
349 comments
349
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?
Resolved :
No
25%
39 forecasters
5
4 comments
4
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
30%
37 forecasters
10
16 comments
16
Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?
75%
26 forecasters
5
7 comments
7
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?
20%
31 forecasters
3
9 comments
9
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
19%
31 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
24.2%
57 forecasters
10
14 comments
14
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
16 comments
16
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
2026
63%
2030
40%
2036
29%
9
6 comments
6
Future of AI
Securing a Flourishing Future by Forecasting Nuclear Risks
no comments
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