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5
comments
8
forecasters
Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
R Praggnanandhaa
99.9%
Anish Giri
99.9%
Hikaru Nakamura
99.8%
18 others
0
comments
18
forecasters
Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?
1
comment
19
forecasters
Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?
5
comments
9
forecasters
If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?
41%
chance
38%
this week
6
comments
1
forecaster
Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?
20%
chance
26
comments
66
forecasters
What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?
Current estimate
0.832 °C
Key Factors
Expectation to be below 2023 and 2024
Current trend is going towards higher values, November is likely to start over 0.6
Past two years had El Niño warming impact
1
comment
15
forecasters
Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?
11%
chance
39%
this week
2
comments
9
forecasters
Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?
44%
chance
41%
this week
25
comments
9
forecasters
What will the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate be in Australia, for the following months?
Revealed
in 3 days
41
comments
196
forecasters
Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?
18%
chance
22%
this week
Key Factors
Emanuel Clase betting scandal impact
MLB plans to discipline players soon
Distinction between paid and unpaid
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