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Will humans go extinct before 2100?

1443 forecasters

77

349 comments349

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

16

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

3

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

When will Gross World Product exceed 1 quadrillion USD?

16

Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?

10

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

6

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31

2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31

2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31

23

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

Human Extinction by 2100

Human Extinction by 2100

14