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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

28%chance

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.06
weapons

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

result2

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?

resultYes