Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ฅ
Communities
๐ญ
Bridgewater 2025
๐ค
AI Benchmarking
๐
ACX 2025
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฝ๐ณ๏ธ
US Election Stakes
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Kessler syndrome occur before 2050?
15%
434 forecasters
47
80 comments
80
If Kessler syndrome is not triggered, when will peak space debris be reached?
2040-08-02
11 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7%
46 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
When will the first space mission remove more than one piece of space debris from orbit?
2028-10-09
17 forecasters
1
2 comments
2
What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?
59.3
9 forecasters
2
4 comments
4
What total mass (in tonnes) of space debris will be removed by active measures by 2040?
11.2
11 forecasters
2
4 comments
4
Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome
8
1 comment
1
Metaculus Journal Archives
What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?
2035
Annulled
2030
Annulled
2025
Annulled
9
16 comments
16
๐ฐ The Sagan Space Tournament ๐ฐ
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
1.07k
33 forecasters
7
no comments
0
๐ฐ The Sagan Space Tournament ๐ฐ
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
16 comments
16
Load More