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5 comments
12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%
R Praggnanandhaa99.9%
Wei Yi99.9%
0 comments
27 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach β‰₯4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments
18 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments
11 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

1 comment
15 forecasters

How many chlorination grants will GiveWell recommend after September 20, 2024, and before January 1, 2026?

6 or more41.1%
420.2%
520.2%
20 comments
48 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

10%chance

Key Factors

1 comment
1 forecaster

Will the following countries enact mandatory military service before 2040?

Australia10%
Belgium20%
Canada10%
1 comment
21 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

48%chance
15% this week
7 comments
6 forecasters

When will a space-based data center first become operational?

Current estimate
Sep 2043

Key Factors

2 comments
5 forecasters

How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?

Current estimate
409k vehicles