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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

2327 forecasters

249

176 comments176

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?

9

Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?

8

Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?

13

Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?

Resolved :No0.1%

8

Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?

157 forecasters

17

Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast

12

Introducing Community Manager Evan Harper

21

Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?

6