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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

12 Jan 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?

Singapore75%
Vietnam70%
Taiwan67%
and 9 others

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

18 Aug 2025

Human-Level Language Models

36
16 comments16

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Patchwork Future: An Exercise in Interpolation

5
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

Deep Learning ourselves into the unknown

3
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8