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When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?
L5
10 Nov 2029
L4
Oct 20, 2020
L3
Apr 15, 2021
11
122 comments
122
Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
28%
98 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
๐ฐ The Sagan Space Tournament ๐ฐ
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
3.12
41 forecasters
7
4 comments
4
๐ฐ The Sagan Space Tournament ๐ฐ
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
8%
151 forecasters
13
2 comments
2
Ragnarรถk Series
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
469 forecasters
58
67 comments
67
Will synthetic biological weapons infect 100 people by 2030?
30%
159 forecasters
31
19 comments
19
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?
75%
101 forecasters
10
21 comments
21
The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?
Resolved :
No
19%
85 forecasters
15
12 comments
12
Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?
Resolved :
No
17%
15 forecasters
5
3 comments
3
Has North Korea tested a boosted fission nuclear device?
Resolved :
No
40%
10 forecasters
9
6 comments
6
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