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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
420 forecasters
36
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
condition
Chinese volume production using EUV by 2033?
8 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
65%
65%
Chinese GDP Greater than US by 2041?
50%
50%
1
2 comments
2
When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?
Oct 2028
25 forecasters
12
10 comments
10
AI in China
Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?
80%
28 forecasters
11
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?
Resolved :
No
59%
132 forecasters
21
9 comments
9
To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?
Resolved :
No
50%
132 forecasters
27
14 comments
14
When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?
Closed
2056
80 forecasters
13
6 comments
6
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
3%
175 forecasters
12
9 comments
9
Ragnarรถk Series
Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?
10%
83 forecasters
12
8 comments
8
Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
42%
74 forecasters
12
37 comments
37
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