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What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?
1.1ร10ยนโท
125 forecasters
41
43 comments
43
Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?
15%
153 forecasters
6
7 comments
7
Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?
51%
26 percentage points this week
24 forecasters
-1
3 comments
3
AGI Outcomes
When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?
2031-01-25
91 forecasters
20
26 comments
26
Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?
Resolved :
No
23%
139 forecasters
38
26 comments
26
Are we in a simulated reality? Part I
Resolved :
No
16%
146 forecasters
24
19 comments
19
New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017?
Resolved :
No
55%
45 forecasters
10
1 comment
1
Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?
1.5%
430 forecasters
49
16 comments
16
Seeing single photons: more research to come?
Resolved :
Yes
95%
28 forecasters
7
13 comments
13
If you die today and get cryonically frozen, will you "wake up"?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
6%
437 forecasters
56
42 comments
42
Playing God Series
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