• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🏆
Leaderboards
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🏦
Big Beautiful Bill
🗽
State of the Union
⏳
AI 2027
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Israel be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

40%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Looking ahead to 2050: Charting scenarios without transformative AI

7
3 comments3
AI Progress Essay Contest

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8

By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?

resultNo

Will photonic tensor cores be ubiquitous in machine learning by 2030?

12%chance

When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?

Oct 2034

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

04 Sep 2029

How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?

1.28
logMAR