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Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?

6

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?

118 forecasters

11

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

3

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?

133 forecasters

12

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?

Resolved :No0.4%

113 forecasters

5

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?

Resolved :Annulled17%

124 forecasters

12

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?

Resolved :Annulled20%

Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?

Resolved :Annulled34%

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

2

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

4

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project