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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

5 comments

6 forecasters

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

99%chance

19% today

3 comments

34 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Current estimate

14 Nov 2025 20:16

4 comments

47 forecasters

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

Current estimate

74.4 People

Key Factors

45 comments

170 forecasters

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

16 Mar 2029

5 comments

8 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

1 comment

32 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

98.1%chance

34.1% this week

26 comments

64 forecasters

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

0.858 °C

Key Factors

26 comments

17 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months?