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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

78%chance
9% this week

Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?

90%chance

When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?

Ambiguous

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

28%chance

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Looking ahead to 2050: Charting scenarios without transformative AI

7
3 comments3
AI Progress Essay Contest

What percent of the world's primary energy will come from fossil fuels in the following years?

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years

26
8 comments8