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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

1 comment

19 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

5 comments

8 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

5 comments

6 forecasters

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

99%chance

26 comments

66 forecasters

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

0.831 °C

Key Factors

45 comments

170 forecasters

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

16 Mar 2029

6 comments

1 forecaster

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

20%chance

1 comment

15 forecasters

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

11%chance

39% this week

2 comments

9 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

44%chance

41% this week

26 comments

17 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?

Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

What will be the seasonally adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index in the following months?