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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

3

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?

6

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

469 forecasters

58

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

9

When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?

Closed31 Dec 2025

4

When will a biocomputer be able to perform an SHA-256 hash?

15

Will a cryptocurrency be created using a quantum random number generator by 2036?

9

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled77%

1

Nuclear Risk Tournament

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

When will a biological attack against crops or livestock result in at least 100 deaths or $1 billion (2021 USD) in damages?

5