Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ฅ
Communities
๐ญ
Bridgewater 2025
๐ค
AI Benchmarking
๐
USAID Outlook
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Ragnarรถk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due "other risks"?
20%
31 forecasters
3
9 comments
9
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
19%
31 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years
26
16 comments
16
When will a benchtop DNA synthesizer be available for sale that can synthesize DNA with the following lengths?
5,000 bases
Oct 2028
10,000 bases
Mar 2030
2
23 comments
23
If a benchtop DNA synthesizer that can synthesize DNA with 5,000 bases is commercially available in 2030, what will be the cost of the cheapest model (in 2024 US dollars)?
189k
9 forecasters
3
11 comments
11
How many benchtop DNA synthesizers will have been sold worldwide before 2030 that can synthesize DNA with the following base lengths?
5,000 bases
Annulled
5,000 bases
71.4
1,000 bases
107
2
13 comments
13
