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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)
9
1
1
comment
3
comments
36
forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
64.8%
3
comments
38
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
37.3%
OpenAI
23.3%
Other
14.4%
3 others
25%
8
comments
61
forecasters
How many times will Starship reach an altitude of 160 kilometers in 2025?
3
95%
4
4.6%
0
0.1%
3 others
0%
4
comments
35
forecasters
When will Adelita Grijalva be sworn in?
Current estimate
03 Nov 2025
5
comments
14
forecasters
Will Tesla operate 400,000 driverless robotaxis over any three consecutive months before 2032?
65%
chance
50%
this week
condition
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
1
forecaster
if yes
if no
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?
1
1
comment
1
1
forecaster
2
comments
55
forecasters
Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?
5%
chance
condition
Will Donald Trump's 100% tariff on China take effect on November 1, 2025?
6
forecasters
if yes
if no
What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?
6514
What will the open value of the S&P 500 be on November 2, 2025?
6789
2
0
comments
6
6
forecasters
Current Events⚡
0
comments
50
forecasters
Who will win the 2025 Bolivian presidential election?
Jorge Quiroga
60%
Rodrigo Paz Pereira
40%
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