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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
22 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
5 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate
May 2037
9 comments
40 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

1 comment
40 forecasters

Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?

resultYes
4 comments
9 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

42 comments
143 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic78.3%
Other8.1%
No Prime Minister3.9%
111 comments
127 forecasters

What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Latest estimate
83.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

3 comments
44 forecasters

How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?

Current estimate
Revealed in 5 days
3 comments
11 forecasters

When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?

Current estimate
Revealed in 5 days