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Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
356 forecasters
37
25 comments
25
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?
14%
39 forecasters
2
3 comments
3
Will Turkey be a member of the European Union by 2040?
5%
47 forecasters
4
3 comments
3
Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?
Resolved :
No
112 forecasters
12
6 comments
6
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
125 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?
99%
206 forecasters
24
20 comments
20
Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?
Resolved :
No
128 forecasters
31
32 comments
32
Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?
Resolved :
No
52 forecasters
7
3 comments
3
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
62%
27 forecasters
1
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?
Resolved :
No
91 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
Nuclear Risk Tournament
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