Question Feed | Metaculus

Topics

🗳️

US Democracy Index

❓

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

0 comments

11 forecasters

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

0 comments

10 forecasters

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

13 comments

37 forecasters

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

15%chance

5% today

Key Factors

5 comments

12 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Anish Giri99.9%

Hikaru Nakamura99.9%

137 comments

317 forecasters

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

39%chance

Key Factors

22 comments

45 forecasters

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Current estimate

>2193 deaths

1 comment

17 forecasters

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

34%chance

4% this week

6 comments

11 forecasters

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

34%chance

46% this week

1 comment

21 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

Will the habeas corpus be suspended for any group of people within the United States in any of the following years?

In the following years, will any U.S. state or the District of Columbia no longer have a previously existing anti-SLAPP law?

Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?

What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?

Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?