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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes

28%chance

Key Factor

Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Mar 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

Key Factor

call girls in pune

28 Aug 2025

Key Factor

call girls in pune

Who will be elected US President in 2024?

Donald Trumpresult: Yes
Gretchen Whitmerresult: No
Pete Buttigiegresult: No
and 17 others

Will the Universe end?

70%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

25 Apr 2027

Key Factor

AI become student of arts university in Vienna

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

50%chance

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

1%chance