On Feb 23, 2022 peace in Europe was shattered when Russia began a full scale invasion of Ukraine. At this critical time, trustworthy forecasts are greatly needed to help both the public and policymakers track and understand the evolving conflict and its implications.

Forecasts in this series will be updated over the coming days and weeks, and will cover a range of topics:

Likelihood of invasion into new territories
Troop movements
Conflict casualties
Social and political implications
Energy infrastructure
Sanctions and other policy responses
US-Russia diplomacy
Chinese response
Economic impact

In the runup to the invasion, the Metaculus Community rated the possibility of a Russian invasion as greater than many commentators, with a Community Prediction in mid-January indicating invasion was more likely than not. This was the history of the community’s steadily increasing forecast on whether Russia would invade Ukraine in 2022, before the invasion on the 23rd of February:

35% on Dec 12th
52% on Jan 18th
65% on Feb 12th
75% on Feb 19th
89% on Feb 22nd

Our aim at Metaculus is to serve as a trustworthy source of information on likely outcomes, and to help people take action to avert unnecessary suffering.

We strongly believe that credible forecasting can help clarify and ground discussions, while pointing to opportunities for de-escalation. We appreciate the contributions of the entire forecasting community to this series

If you have any questions that you believe are important or useful, we are eager to hear your suggestions, which you can post as a comment in this thread.