In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution.

The possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point between January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2030, there is a large-scale armed conflict in Russia, according to credible media reports. For this question, a “a large-scale armed conflict” is a conflict which meets these criteria:

results in at least 1,000 deaths in Russia
has at least 100 participants directly involved in the killings,
with the majority of the participants on both sides being Russian citizens.

Some examples of such events from the Russian history include the Russian Revolution, the Russian Civil War, the First and Second Chechen Wars. We ignore such events if they happen mostly in Crimea or any other territory occupied by Russia since 2014.

In case there are several smaller deadly events (e.g. a series of terrorist attacks), and it's unclear if they should be counted together as one conflict, then we use the following additional criterion:

there should be a page on Wikipedia about the conflict.