The Supreme Court is currently planning to hear a case, National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross, which will have massive near-term impacts on the welfare of farmed animals raised in the worst conditions.

Proposition 12 was a California ballot proposition that expanded upon California's already existing ban on caged farming systems (egg-laying hens kept in battery cages and pregnant sows kept in gestation crates). Under Proposition 12, not only would production of animal products made under intensive caged farming systems be illegal in the state, but so would the sale of such products (regardless of where they were made).

The National Pork Producers Council is hoping that the Supreme Court will find California's law in violation of the Dormant Commerce Clause, while California is hoping that the court will consider banning caged farming a legitimate reason to burden interstate commerce and thus uphold their law.

Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross by the end of 2023?

This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court rules in National Pork Producers Council v. Karen Ross that California's Ballot Proposition 12 is unconstitutional. If SCOTUS delivers a mixed ruling that only part of Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, this question will resolve as Yes if that part is the more significant part, according to Metaculus' discretion. If SCOTUS remands the case to a lower court, this question will resolve as Yes if the final outcome of this case, or a successor case comprised of the merger of this case and others, finds that Proposition 12 is unconstitutional, and litigation for this case ends before 2024. Otherwise, this question will resolve as No.