Various criminal offenses against the United States include as a potential penalty legal disqualification from holding federal office, theoretically including the presidency of the United States.

These offenses include (inter alia) those under 18 U.S. Code § 2071, which states:

(a)Whoever willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away any record, proceeding, map, book, paper, document, or other thing, filed or deposited with any clerk or officer of any court of the United States, or in any public office, or with any judicial or public officer of the United States, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both.

(b)Whoever, having the custody of any such record, proceeding, map, book, document, paper, or other thing, willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, falsifies, or destroys the same, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than three years, or both; and shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States. As used in this subsection, the term “office” does not include the office held by any person as a retired officer of the Armed Forces of the United States.

In early August 2022, federal agents executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago, the primary residence of Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, in the course of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there. It has been speculated that Trump may eventually be charged with a crime in relation to these documents, potentially including an offense under 18 U.S. Code § 2071.

According to Reuters:

While the Presidential Records Act does not specify an enforcement mechanism, taking presidential records from the White House could open Trump up to charges of conspiring to impede the proper functioning of the National Archives, said Jeffrey Cohen, an associate professor at Boston College Law School and former federal prosecutor.

He could also be charged under a law, known by its code number 2071, making it a crime to conceal or destroy U.S. public documents, or laws making it illegal to steal or damage government property.

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A provision of 2071 states that anyone convicted will be barred from holding federal office and face a prison term of up to three years.

However, Reuters also notes:

But experts said that provision may not be constitutional. The U.S. Constitution sets forth the qualifications for holding federal elected office, and previous Supreme Court rulings have held that Congress cannot limit who can run for the presidency, the Senate or the House.

If convicted and disqualified from office, Trump would likely challenge it in court, where the outcome would be far from certain.

Another Metaculus question, 'Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?,' asks whether Trump will be disqualified from the presidency before inauguration day in 2025. This question asks, contingent on that happening, whether that disqualification will subsequently be ruled unconstitutional prior to inauguration day in 2025.

If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?

This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, the question 'Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20th 2025?' resolves as Yes, and if such disqualification is later ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of the United States; OR if such disqualification is ruled unconstitutional by an appellate court inferior to the US Supreme Court, AND the US Supreme Court refuses to hear an appeal against a lower court's prior ruling that such a disqualification is unconstitutional.