Related Questions on Metaculus:

If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?
If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, what percent of voters will vote in favor?

On July 30, 2022, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the government would be proposing a federal referendum to change the Australian Constitution and enshrine an Indigenous Voice to Parliament (Reuters, ABC).

As of August 2022, there have been a total of 44 referendums in Australia’s history, of which only 8 have passed. The last referendum occurred in 1999, and received a majority of the vote in only one state or territory. In 2013, a constitutional amendment was proposed (and planned), but was abandoned before it could be formally put to the Australian people via a referendum.

A national referendum is the only way to change the Australian Constitution. To pass, a referendum requires a ‘double majority’, which is both:

A national majority of voters in the states and territories, and
A majority of voters in a majority of states (ie, at least four out of six states).

As with ordinary Federal Elections in Australia, voting is compulsory for all eligible voters. Details of the process can be found here and here.

Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?

This question will resolve as Yes if a national referendum is held in Australia which concerns an amendment to the constitution to create an Indigenous "Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026, as reported by the Australian Electoral Commission.

The final referendum question must propose a constitutional amendment which establishes some form of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander representation or advisory body to the Australian Parliament. The precise wording of the referendum question is not relevant to resolution, provided the subject matter of the referendum is clear.