Related Questions on Metaculus:

Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?
Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

In 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and held a sham referendum on becoming incorporated to Russia. Ukraine declared that Russia was illegally occupying their land, and the two sides began a protracted, small-scale war. In February 2022, the conflict escalated significantly.

Although Crimea has seen a few attacks, including the explosion on the Crimean Bridge on October 8, 2022, Russia has maintained de facto control of the peninsula since the 2014 annexation.

Crimea's total area is estimated to be around 27,000 km^2.