FTX is a cryptocurrency exchange, a platform for exchanging cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency derivatives, headquartered in the Bahamas and founded by American entrepreneur Sam Bankman-Fried. FTX also operates FTX.US is an affiliated US-based exchange. FTX.US products including derivatives, options, volatility products, and leveraged tokens.

On November 6th, 2022, FTX began to unravel. Reportedly, SBF himself lost 94% of his net worth and dropped out of the billionaires' club. However, as of November 10th, 2022, SBF stated that "this shitshow" would have no financial impact on FTX.US, which remained "100% liquid".

Before 2023, will FTX.US default or delay for more than 120 hours on payment to at least one FTX.US user?

This question will resolve Yes if credible published reports indicate that FTX.US has defaulted, suspended payments, or otherwise failed to furnish assets in response to an FTX.US user's valid demand, and that this demand had still not been fulfilled at least 120 hours after being initially issued.

In determining resolution, Metaculus administrators will use their best considered judgement to interpret reports appearing in reliable published sources.

Absence of evidence will be considered evidence of absence; the question will resolve No if no such reports are found at resolution time. Resolution may be delayed briefly if an FTX.US crisis happens to be ongoing during the last days of the year.