On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.

Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on February 28, March 3, and March 7, 2022, on the Belarus–Ukraine border, with further talks held on March 10 in Turkey prior to a fourth round of negotiations which began on March 14. The Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on July 13 that peace talks are frozen for the time being.

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?

This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2024.

The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.