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We marked some states “Safe Democrat” or “Safe Republican” based on historical election data. If you believe we should include forecasts for more states, let us know!","shareOnFacebook":"Share on Facebook","shareOnTwitter":"Share on Twitter","shareInComment":"Share in comment","youPredicted":"You predicted","embed":"embed","share":"share","270VotesToWin":"270 votes to win","expectedElectoralVotes":"Expected Electoral Votes","electoralVotes":"Electoral Votes","0Votes":"0 Votes","538Votes":"538 Votes","electionHubDescription":"Explore Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election","2024USElectionHub":"2024 US Election Hub","safeParty":"Safe {party}","partyWinProbability":"{party} Win Probability ↗","settingsPreferences":"Preferences","settingsSubscriptions":"Subscriptions","nTriggers":"{n} triggers","settingsQuestionNotifications":"Question Notifications","settingsEmailNotifications":"Email Notifications","settingsUserEmail":"User Email","settingsNewEmail":"New Email","settingsNewQuestionsInTournament":"New questions in tournaments I follow","settingsEmailChangeDescription":"Enter a new email address and a password, and we'll send you a link to change your email.","settingsChangeEmailAddress":"Change email address","settingsChangeEmailAddressSuccess":"A confirmation email has been sent to your new address. Please follow the link inside to activate it.","settingsMentionsInComments":"Mentions in comments","settingsQuestionResolution":"Resolved Questions","settingsSignificantMovementOnPredictedQuestions":"Significant movement on predicted questions","settingsSignificantMovementOnPredictedQuestionsTooltip":"You will receive a notification email when the Community Prediction changes by more than 10% on any question you've predicted. Emails are batched every hour.","newsLetter":"Newsletter","research":"Research","updates":"Updates","posts":"posts","notebook":"notebook","existingQuestion":"Existing Question","questionId":"Question ID","addQuestion":"Add Question","addExistingQuestion":"Add Existing Question","existingQuestionExample":"Add an existing Metaculus question to your Community","notebookExample":"text-based content that is not a question","conditionalPair":"conditional pair","conditionalPairExample":"If it rains today, will it rain tomorrow?","dateGroup":"date group","dateGroupExample":"When will it rain for the following cities?","numericGroup":"numeric group","numericGroupExample":"How much will it rain for these cities?","binaryGroup":"binary group","binaryGroupExample":"Will it rain in these cities today?","binaryQuestion":"binary question","binaryQuestionExample":"Will it rain today?","numericQuestion":"numeric question","numericRange":"numeric range","numericRangeExample":"How much rain next month?","dateRange":"date range","dateRangeExample":"When will it rain?","multipleChoiceExample":"Which city will get the most rain?","discrete":"discrete question","discreteExample":"How many days of rain next month?","discreteGroup":"discrete group","discreteGroupExample":"How many days of rain for these cities?","questionGroup":"question group","singleQuestion":"single question","createNewContent":"create new content","onlyRegisterUserCanCreate":"Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now!","createQuestionDescription1":"Check out our question writing guide for tips. Good questions are approved faster, and get more predictions. If you just have an idea, or don't want to fill out the whole submission form, post your idea in our suggestion thread.","createQuestionDescription2":"We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.","binaryQuestionDescription":"Binary questions are generally of the form \"Will X happen?\" They either resolve as Yes or No.","multipleChoiceDescription":"Multiple choice questions are generally of the form \"Which of the following will happen?\". 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If there is some simple math that will need to be done to resolve this question, define the equation in markdown: \\[ y = ax^2+b \\].","closingDate":"closing date","resolvingDate":"resolving date","choices":"Choices","choicesSeparatedBy":"Choices (separated by ,)","projects":"projects","FABPrizePool":"PRIZE POOL","FABPrizeValue":"$$30,000","FABStartDate":"START DATE","FABEndDate":"ENDED ON","FABStartDateJuly8":"July 8","FABStartDateOct8":"October 8","FABStartDateJan20":"January 20","FABStartDateApr21":"April 21","FABEndDateSep30":"September 30","FABEndDateDec31":"December 31","FABdesc1":"Compete with API credits provided courtesy of OpenAI and Anthropic.","FABdesc2":"Features Multiple Choice, Numeric, and Binary questions.","FABdesc3":"New questions open once every 2hr for most the week and continue through the night, to build confidence that there is no human in the loop.","FABRulesTitle":"Basic rules","FABRulesRule1":"No human in the loop","FABRulesRule2":"Bots must post a comment explaining reasoning alongside each forecast","FABRulesRule3":"One bot per user","FABRulesRule4":"Bot makers must be willing to share code or a description of how their bot works, and allow a member of Metaculus to inspect their code.","FABdesc4":"Bot performance benchmarked against the Metaculus community and Metaculus Pro Forecasters.","FABHeroTitle":"AI Forecasting","FABHeroSubtitle":"Benchmark Series","FABHeroDesc":"Benchmarking the state of the art in AI forecasting against the best humans on real-world questions.","FABGettingStarted":"Getting Started","FABRegisterBot":"Register your bot for the tournament","FABCreateBot":"Create a Bot Account","FABSeparateBotAccount":"Your bot needs a separate Metaculus account. Make sure to log out of your main account and come back to this page.","FABBotRegistered":"Your bot is successfully registered for the tournament.","FABShowToken":"Show My Token","FABTournamentPage":"The Questions","FABHowItWorks":"Getting Started","FABCreateBotAccount":"Create a Bot Account","FABBotAlreadyCreated":"Create a bot account to participate. If you already have one, close this window, click the 'Log in' button in the upper-right corner of this page, and log in with your bot account.","FABTokenInfo":"Your token is needed for your bot to interact with the Metaculus API.","FABQ3Conclude":"Q3 is concluded, but Q4 is underway.","FABQ4Conclude":"2025's Q2 tournament is underway!","FABQ3ConcludeButton":"Click to learn more and get started","FABQ4Start":"Q4 has started, but the Q3 tournament has concluded! Click for the final rankings.","FABQ1Start":"Check out the final rankings for last year's Q4 tournament!","inReviewStatusBox1":"This question now needs to be approved by a Metaculus Moderator. Questions that conform to our Question Writing Guidelines, and concern one of our core topics, have better chances of being approved, and faster.","inReviewStatusBox2":"All Metaculus users are encouraged to give feedback on questions during Review, and upvote the questions they find interesting and/or well written. Questions with a positive vote balance will receive priority attention from Administrators. Questions with a significantly negative vote balance will be rejected by default.","inReviewStatusBox4":"Note that this question cannot be approved until both its parent and child have been approved.","inReviewStatusBox5":"This question now needs to be approved by an administrator. You can notify administrators by tagging @admins in a comment.","inCommunityReviewStatus1":"This question needs approval from a Community curator like you. You can also make edits, tag the author in a comment below, send the question back to Drafts for revision, or reject the question.Some suggestions for high-quality questions:","inCommunityReviewStatus2":"

Define terms and be concrete. Links are helpful.

Questions should be simple to resolve and not require a great deal of admin effort.

The title and wording of the question should align with the resolution criteria.

Try this test: People in the future agree on how this question resolved. If they can’t, it may need clarification

","draftStatusBox1":"Your submission is now a Draft.","draftStatusBox2":"Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!","draftStatusBox3":"Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by administrators. Thank you!","newSubquestion":"new subquestion","bulkEdit":"Bulk Edit","bulkEditDescription":"Edit question attributes in bulk.","subquestionDetails":"subquestion details","subquestions":"subquestions","binaryQuestionGroup":"binary question group","binaryQuestionGroupDescription":"Binary question groups contain questions that generally have the form \"Will X happen?\" and resolve as Yes or No.","numericQuestionGroup":"numeric question group","numericQuestionGroupDescription":"Numeric question groups contain questions that ask about the value of an unknown future quantity and resolve within a specified range.","dateQuestionGroup":"date question group","dateQuestionGroupDescription":"Date question groups contain questions that ask when something will happen and resolve within a specified date range.","discreteQuestionGroup":"Discrete question group","discreteQuestionGroupDescription":"Discrete question groups contain questions that ask about the value of an unknown future quantity and resolve within a specified range.","groupVariableDescription":"What the subquestion labels represent (e.g. year, country, etc).","categoryPickerDescription":"A name for the parameter which varies between subquestions, like \"Option\", \"Year\" or \"Country\"","subquestionLabel":"Subquestion label","subquestionLabelDescription":"The label or parameter which identifies this subquestion, like \"Option 1\", \"2033\" or \"France\"","conditionalPairDescription":"A Conditional Pair is a special type of Question Group that elicits conditional probabilities. 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The x-axis shows prediction ranges (e.g. 17.5% - 22.5%) and the y-axis shows the actual \"Yes\" resolution rate for within each range. Yellow diamonds represent these observed rates. The gray lines along the diagonal (y=x) are what you would get by forecasting the \"true\" probability on a large number of questions. The shaded area is the 90% credible interval around the perfect calibration, the width of which depends on how many predictions the forecaster has made in that x-axis range. If the forecaster had been perfectly calibrated, the diamond would have been in that range 90% of the time.","calibrationCurveInfo":"The closer a diamond is to the grey line, the better calibrated the predictions in that probability range. If a diamond is closer to y=50% than the grey bar, that suggests the forecaster is overconfident.","condition":"condition","facebook":"Facebook","xTwitter":"X / Twitter","copyFromBranch":"copy from {branch}","parentResolvesAsYes":"Parent Resolves as Yes","parentResolvesAsNo":"Parent Resolves as No","othersCount":"{count} others","selectAll":"select all","deselectAll":"deselect all","forecastDataIsEmpty":"Forecast data is empty","noForecastsYet":"No forecasts yet","RevealTemporarily":"Reveal Temporarily","CPIsHidden":"Community Prediction is hidden","createdByUserOnDate":"Created by {user} on {date}","edited":"edited","tournamentHidePostsToMainFeed":"Hide tournament posts in main feed","me":"me","forecastDisclaimer":"Based on {predictionCount} predictions by {forecasterCount} forecasters","embedCodeSnippet":"You can use the below code snippet to embed this page on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.","embedThisPage":"embed this page","selectATheme":"Select a theme","selectAGraphZoom":"Select a graph zoom","light":"light","dark":"dark","all":"all","2m":"2m","1w":"1w","1d":"1d","errorDeletingComment":"error deleting comment:","numeric":"numeric","date":"date","filterBy":"filter by","closeFilter":"close filter","biosecurity":"biosecurity","biosecurityDescription":"Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemics","aiProgress":"AI progress","aiProgressDescription":"Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to society","nuclearSecurity":"nuclear security","nuclearSecurityDescription":"Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing future","climateChange":"climate change","climateChangeDescription":"Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activity","cookiesTitle":"We use cookies 🍪 to understand how you use Metaculus and to improve your experience.","cookiesSubtitle":"Learn more about how we use cookies in our Privacy Policy","customize":"Customize","acceptAndClose":"Accept and close","cookiePreferences":"Cookie Preferences","cookieServices":"Metaculus uses cookies for the following types of services.","learnMoreFromPrivacyPolicy":"Learn more from our Privacy Policy.","necessaryOnly":"Necessary only","necessaryCookies":"Necessary cookies","cannotBeUnchecked":"Cannot be unchecked","analytics":"Analytics","helpsImprovePlatform":"Helps us improve the platform","saveSelected":"Save Selected","onboardingStep1Question1":"Should I bring an umbrella?","onboardingStep1Question2":"Are we headed for a recession?","onboardingStep1Question3":"Will my team come out on top?","onboardingStep1Paragraph1":"You make predictions all the time, on topics big and small. It's a skill, and Metaculus helps you hone it.","onboardingStep1Paragraph2":"Let's make a few quick predictions to get you started.","onboardingStep1Paragraph3":"First, pick a topic you care about.","skipTutorial":"Skip Tutorial","remindMeLater":"Remind me later","onboardingRemindMeLaterDescription":"(You can always find the tutorial later in the menu at the top of every page)","skipQuestions":"Skip question","onboardingStep2Title":"Here's a real Metaculus question about {topicName}:","onboardingStep2CommunityThinks":"Other forecasters tend to think this is","onboardingStep2CommunityGives":"They give it","onboardingStep2WhatDoYouThink":"What do you think? Do you agree with","onboardingStep2Disagree":"Disagree?","onboardingStep2LessLikely":"Less likely","onboardingStep2AboutRight":"About right","onboardingStep2MoreLikely":"More likely","onboardingStep2Excellent":"Excellent. Below you can see your prediction quantified next to the community's. Does that look about right? If not, you can grab and drag the slider. Click 'Predict' when you're ready to continue.","onboardingStep2Predict":"Predict","onboardingStep2Error":"An error occurred while submitting your forecast.","onboardingStep3Title":"Great! Here's another question about {topicName}:","onboardingStep3CommunityThinks":"Other forecasters tend to think this is","onboardingStep3CommunityGives":"They give it","onboardingStep3WhatDoYouThink":"How likely do you think this is?","onboardingStep3Predict":"Predict","onboardingStep4Factors":"Here are some of the factors other forecasters are considering.","onboardingStep4ConsideringOthers":"Considering others' views is an important step in forecasting accurately!","onboardingStep4WhatDoYouThink":"What do you think? Did any of those factors make you want to change your prediction? If not, that's fine too.","onboardingStep4AlmostDone":"You are almost done with this tutorial!","onboardingStep4Predict":"Predict","onboardingStep4Error":"An error occurred while submitting your forecast.","onboardingStep5NiceWork":"Nice work!","onboardingStep5WellDone":"Well done!","onboardingStep5SavePredictionsParagraph":"Would you like to save the predictions you've made?","onboardingYouPredicted":"You predicted","onboardingStep5AnyoneCanImprove":"Anyone can improve at forecasting by practicing and thinking through what factors could influence outcomes.","onboardingStep5DidYouKnow":"Did you know?","onboardingStep5ForecastingCompetition":"In a series of forecasting competitions conducted by University of Pennsylvania professor Philip Tetlock, skilled forecasters outperformed CIA analysts without access to classified intelligence.","onboardingStep5ReadyToExplore":"You are now ready to explore Metaculus by yourself. What would you like to do next?","onboardingStep5ViewYourPredictions":"View Your Predictions","onboardingStep5ForecastAnother":"Forecast Another","onboardingStep5Question":"Question","onboardingStep5ViewQuestionFeed":"View Question Feed","communityName":"Community Name","communityNameDescription":"This is how your community appears to others.","communitySlug":"Community Slug","communitySlugDescription":"Your community can be accessed via the following URL:","communityDescription":"Community Description","youArePostingAPrivateComment":"You are posting a private comment","unread":"unread","contentTranslatedHeaderText":"Some content on this page is automatically translated, and may be inaccurate.","showOriginalContent":"Show original","nextQuestion":"Next Question","next":"Next","fullName":"Full Name","country":"Country of Residence","undergraduateStudentQuestion":"Are you currently an undergraduate student?","institution":"Institution","major":"Major","graduationYear":"Expected Graduation Year","finishRegistration":"Finish Registration","keyFactor":"Key Factor","keyFactors":"Key Factors","notAvailable":"Not available","indexesTitle":"Project","indexScore":"Index value: {value}","indexQuestion":"Question","indexWeight":"Weight","indexCP":"CP","weeklyMovementChange":"{value} this week","noChange":"No change","percentagePoints":"percentage points","proForecastersTitle":"About Metaculus Pro Forecasters","proForecastersDescription":"For certain projects Metaculus employs Pro Forecasters who have demonstrated excellent forecasting ability and who have a history of clearly describing their rationales. Pros forecast on private and public sets of questions to produce well-calibrated forecasts and descriptive rationales for our partners.

If you’re interested in hiring Metaculus Pro Forecasters for a project, contact us at support@metaculus.com with the subject \"Project Inquiry\".","meetProForecasters":"Meet a few of our Pro Forecasters:","whyUseProForecastersTitle":"Why Use Pro Forecasters?","whyUseProForecastersInfo":"The Metaculus community has demonstrated excellent accuracy and calibration on the questions it has forecasted. However, sometimes there are questions of particular importance – either to the world or to certain stakeholders – where excellent calibration and transparent reasoning are of the utmost importance. Pro Forecasters are selected from the most accurate Metaculus forecasters and describe their reasoning when making forecasts, providing enhanced confidence in the calibration of the predictions and ensuring that stakeholders can understand what is driving the forecasts.","selectingProForecastersTitle":"Selecting Pro Forecasters","selectingProForecastersInfo":"Pro Forecasters are carefully selected from forecasters who have fulfilled certain criteria to ensure the quality of their predictions and reasoning.","excellentForecastAbilityTitle":"Excellent Forecasting Ability","excellentForecastAbilityInfo":"Pro Forecasters must demonstrate excellent forecasting ability. This means not only that they have excellent accuracy, but also that they have a history of making insightful comments that clearly explain their reasoning. Accuracy alone is not enough, a Pro Forecaster must be able to both make accurate forecasts and explain the underlying reasoning behind those forecasts.

Our Pro selection methodology uses the Metaculus Leaderboards, combining the Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, and Comments leaderboards to produce a weighted average score across those leaderboards and across different leaderboard periods. Pros are selected from forecasters who have the highest score on this combined metric, representing the very best forecasters from all of Metaculus. Note that while the Peer score is weighted highest in this combined metric, the weighting is such that forecasters must have good scores in all categories.","robustTrackRecordsTitle":"Robust Track Records","robustTrackRecordsInfo":"Pro Forecasters must have at least 75 resolved questions and must have made predictions across multiple subject areas, with at least one year of experience making predictions.

We also consider recruiting forecasters who have demonstrated excellent forecasting ability elsewhere.","clearCommentsAndCommunicationTitle":"Clear Comments and Communication","clearCommentsAndCommunicationInfo":"Our Pros work on projects for external partners who value clear reasoning to better interpret the forecasts. We select Pros who have a history of making clear and insightful comments, and who are willing to disagree with their peers, but in a polite and respectful manner.","expressionOfInterestFormMessage":"We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are great at providing constructive feedback on submitted questions to become paid moderators. Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.","dateInputDetails":"Date and time is in your local timezone [{timezone}]","postCreateErrorMinSubquestions":"A question group must have at least one subquestion","insertEquation":"Insert Equation","choseEquationType":"Choose the type of equation you want to add. To edit it, simply click on it within the editor.","inline":"Inline","block":"Block","accountInactiveModalTitle":"You've got mail!","accountInactiveModalBody":"Please confirm your email associated with your {login} account to be able to log in.","accountInactiveModalResendButton":"Resend activation email","welcomeToMetaculusCommunity":"Welcome to the Metaculus community!","reviewCommunityGuidelines":"Before posting a comment, please take a moment to review our Community Guidelines. We value thoughtful, respectful, and constructive contributions that help foster meaningful discussions.","keepCivilStayOnTopic":"Keep it civil, stay on topic, and avoid low-effort comments. Reasoning copied directly from AI tools is not allowed. We will delete comments that violate our Community Guidelines.","understand":"I understand","editProfile":"Edit Profile","forecastingPerformance":"Forecasting Performance","totalPrizes":"Total Prizes","totalEarned":"Total Earned","currentRank":"Current Rank","bestEver":"Best Ever","questionsBy":"Questions by","closeDateError":"The close date must be after the open date. Change the open date here or edit the question to change the close date.","table":"Table","slider":"Slider","lowerBound":"Lower bound","quartiles":"Quartiles","upperBound":"Upper bound","leaderboardCpInfo":"This is the main prediction aggregated from all forecasters on each question.

Learn how it's computed here.","aggregationDataIsNotAvailable":"Aggregation data is not available","noAggregationData":"No aggregation data","selectParentQuestion":"Select Parent Question","selectChildQuestion":"Select Child Question","pickQuestion":"Pick Question","viewQuestions":"View Questions({count})","predictionFlow":"Prediction Flow","started":"Started","starts":"Starts","lastDayForPrizeParticipation":"Last day for prize participation","questionsResolved":"Questions resolved","winnersAnnounced":"Winners announced","closedForForecasting":"Closed for forecasting","markdownHelp":"Markdown help","sourceMode":"Source mode","deleteRejectPostDescription":"Are you sure you want to {destructiveAction} this question?","sendBackToReview":"Send back to review","forecastRevealed":"Forecast revealed","closedForForecastingDescription":"This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.","invalidQuestionType":"Invalid question type","invalidQuestionStatus":"Question status should be open or upcoming","chance":"chance","closedForForecastingGroupDescription":"This question is closed for forecasting.

Latest Community predictions were:","and":"and","invalidQuantileInput":"Invalid quantile input","unexpectedError":"Unexpected error","quantileEmptyError":"Quantile can't be empty","q1LessThanError":"Your 25th percentile must be less than your 50th and 75th percentiles","q2BetweenError":"Your 50th percentile must be between your 25th and 75th percentiles","q3GreaterThanError":"Your 75th percentile must be greater than your 25th and 50th percentiles","probabilityRangeError":"Probability must be between 0.1 and 99.9%","probabilitySumError":"Sum of probabilities must not be greater than 99%","quantileBelowBoundError":"Quantile can't be at or below closed lower bound","quantileAboveBoundError":"Quantile can't be at or above closed upper bound","q1BelowRangeError":"When your 25th percentile is below range, your probability below the lower bound should be ≥ 25%","q1AboveRangeError":"When your 25th percentile is above range, your probability above the upper bound should be ≥ 75%","q2BelowRangeError":"When your median is below range, your probability below the lower bound should be ≥ 50%","q2AboveRangeError":"When your median is above range, your probability above the upper bound should be ≥ 50%","q3BelowRangeError":"When your 75th percentile is below range, your probability below the lower bound should be ≥ 75%","q3AboveRangeError":"When your 75th percentile is above range, your probability above the upper bound should be ≥ 25%","emptyCdfError":"continuous_cdf is required for continuous questions","invalidCdfLengthError":"continuous_cdf must have 201 values","quantileTooCloseError":"Your quantiles are too close to each other, please space them out.","quantileTooCloseToClosedBound":"Your quantiles are too close to a closed bound, please add space between them and the edge.","questionRangeError":"range_min and range_max must be defined","chartDataError":"There was an error generating the chart data","percentileBoundsError":"The given percentiles must emcompass upper and lower bounds","q1InRangeProbBelowError":"When your 25th percentile is in range, your probability below the range should be ≤ 25%","q1InRangeProbAboveError":"When your 25th percentile is in range, your probability above the range should be ≤ 75%","q2InRangeProbBelowError":"When your 50th percentile is in range, your probability below the range should be ≤ 50%","q2InRangeProbAboveError":"When your 50th percentile is in range, your probability above the range should be ≤ 50%","q3InRangeProbBelowError":"When your 75th percentile is in range, your probability below the range should be ≤ 75%","q3InRangeProbAboveError":"When your 75th percentile is in range, your probability above the range should be ≤ 25%","manualSubquestionOrder":"Manual (Click the arrows to reorder)","cpAscendingSubquestionOrder":"Community Prediction (Ascending)","cpDescendingSubquestionOrder":"Community Prediction (Descending)","groupSorting":"Group sorting","groupSortingDescription":"The order of the subquestions in the group","summarizeAggregations":"Summarize aggregations","questionData":"Question data","commentData":"Comment data","anonymize":"Anonymize","scoreData":"Score data","includeUserData":"Include user data","aggregationMethods":"Aggregation methods","configuration":"Configuration","loginConfigurationMessage":"Log in to select different options","downloadData":"Download data","emailData":"Email me this data","today":"Today","forecastCopyToAll":"Copy to all","forecastCopyTo":"Copy to…","forecastCopyToRich":"Copy to {name}","forecastCopyFrom":"Copy from…","forecastCopyFromRich":"Copy from {name}","forecastCopyToAllToastMessage":"Distribution copied to all other questions","forecastCopyFromToastMessage":"Distribution copied from ''{name}''","forecastCopyToToastMessage":"Distribution copied from ''{from_name}'' to ''{to_name}''","result":"result","communityDisclaimer":"Contributed by the community. 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