Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A large-scale protest movement emerged and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.

Opposition figure Valery Tsepkalo predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks' back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a previous Metaculus question asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.

However, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented after a referendum in early 2022. Lukashenko has previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted. The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.