Background

Since Monday of last week, violence between Palestine and Israel has seen dramatic escalation, with over 212 Palestinians being killed and 3000 missiles being fired at Israel in the last eight days alone. The outcome of this conflict has significant implications for the Israel and Netanyahu, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Palestinian Authority, the rest of the Middle East, as well as for the foreign actors which have involved themselves in the conflict over the last eight days.

However, the outcome of this conflict is far from certain. Will Israel continue to launch airstrikes at Gaza? Will Hamas and Islamic Jihad continue to fire missiles at Israel? Will violence break out in the West Bank? When will there be a ceasefire? Will other powers get directly involved?

Instead of asking a single question like “When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestinian conflict?” or “How many Palestinians will be killed by the IDF in 2021?” we wanted to choose a set of questions that would contextualize the ongoing situation more accurately. The aim of these six questions is to put this conflict in the context of past conflicts between Israel and Palestine, as well as to help us understand the trajectory of the conflict.

Sources for live-updates:

Question

For this question, you are asked to forecast:

Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?

Implications: (A) Would pass the common threshold for war in terms of deaths per year, (B) Would become the third deadliest year / conflict between Israel-Palestine since at least 2008.

Read our forecast with the significant signals and constraints we've identified, find more background information, and listen to our podcast on this question at globalguessing.com.

Israel-Palestine Crisis 2021 Forecasting Series

Have another question you think should be added to the series? Reach out to us in the comments, on our website, or on Twitter.

Base-Rate Data

UN data on deaths per year: https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties

Deaths in 2021 so far (updated daily by 10pm Mountain): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6162754/

Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel per year: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173124/

Number of rockets, mortars, and missiles fired at Israel in 2021 so far (updated daily): https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/6173157/

Question with Resolution Criteria

Will more than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict?

This question will resolve positively if on February 15, 2022, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports over 1,000 Palestinian deaths in 2021.