5 comments
30 forecasters

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?

70%chance
37.1% this week
4 comments
22 forecasters

What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?

Current estimate
159 $
22 comments
123 forecasters

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?

97%chance
85% this week
3 comments
4 forecasters

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails)67.1%
Greater than 50% and less than 53%21.2%
Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%8.9%
Greater than or equal to 56%2.7%
19 comments
74 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Chad Bianco0.1%
Steve Hilton5%
Katie Porter0.1%
Xavier Becerra94.6%
19 comments
62 forecasters

Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?

Current estimate
Revealedin 4 days
%chance
0 comments
11 forecasters

Will any host nation (USA, Mexico or Canada) reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup?

5%chance
37 comments
819 forecasters

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

23%chance
2 comments
8 forecasters

Will OpenAI publicly file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

70%chance
0 comments
4 forecasters

Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?

50%chance
1 comment
50 forecasters

How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?

Current estimate
1.81 bracelets
2 comments
5 forecasters

Will the UK Parliament approve the target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 87 per cent by 2040?

80%chance
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