Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events3 comments
10 forecasters
Will atomic chess be solved by 2100, and if so, what result?
Win for White29.4%
Draw20.3%
Win for Black6.9%
No Proof by 210043.4%
6 comments
17 forecasters
Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?
71%chance
51% this week
0 comments
15 forecasters
What will be the Global Peace Index score for the United States in 2026?
Current estimate
2.47
0 comments
55 forecasters
Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?
15%chance
5% today
9 comments
9 forecasters
Who will win the Maryland Montgomery County Public Schools 2026 Student Member of the Board Election?
Leul DawitHidden
Reemey GhermayHidden
0 comments
59 forecasters
Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?
65%chance
15% this week
35 comments
105 forecasters
When will the 2026 US partial government shutdown end?
Current estimate
>01 May 2026
26 comments
20 forecasters
How many people worldwide will have completed vaccination with the M72 tuberculosis vaccine before 2040?
Current estimate
184M People
23 comments
19 forecasters
When will new bans on the open-environment release of gene-drive mosquitoes cover 200 million people?
Current estimate
Dec 2037
0 comments
47 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on May 14, 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed in 2 days
3 comments
10 forecasters
Which Party will win the next Turkish presidential election? (2028)
CHP18.5%
AKP59.6%
Other8.7%
No winner before 20298.7%
23 comments
21 forecasters
What will be the lower 95% confidence bound for the vaccine efficacy of the M72 tuberculosis vaccine in the Phase 3 Gates MRI trial?
Current estimate
19.6%