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Future of work & AIFuture of the US workforce as AI advances
5 comments
30 forecasters
Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the contiguous US, before 2027?
70%chance
37.1% this week
4 comments
22 forecasters
What will SpaceX's stock price be at the end of August 2026?
Current estimate
159 $
22 comments
123 forecasters
Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country other than Spain before September 2026?
97%chance
85% this week
3 comments
4 forecasters
What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?
Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails)67.1%
Greater than 50% and less than 53%21.2%
Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%8.9%
Greater than or equal to 56%2.7%
19 comments
74 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Chad Bianco0.1%
Steve Hilton5%
Katie Porter0.1%
Xavier Becerra94.6%
19 comments
62 forecasters
Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?
Current estimate
Revealedin 4 days
%chance
0 comments
11 forecasters
Will any host nation (USA, Mexico or Canada) reach the semifinals of the 2026 World Cup?
5%chance
37 comments
819 forecasters
Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
23%chance
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will OpenAI publicly file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?
70%chance
0 comments
4 forecasters
Will there be a Cockroach Janta Party protest with at least 20,000 participants before 2027?
50%chance
1 comment
50 forecasters
How many WSOP bracelets will the 2026 Main Event winner hold at the end of the 2026 WSOP season?
Current estimate
1.81 bracelets
2 comments
5 forecasters
Will the UK Parliament approve the target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 87 per cent by 2040?
80%chance