Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api
{ "count": 5806, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "previous": null, "results": [ { "id": 39326, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "short_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "url_title": "FIDE Grand Swiss 2025", "slug": "fide-grand-swiss-2025", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T22:16:52.739008Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T13:37:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-30T12:51:49.018270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T13:41:45.181121Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T13:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38677, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds win the Open section of the FIDE Grand Swiss 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T22:16:52.739502Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T13:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-29T13:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-29T13:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-15T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a player other than one of the top 10 seeds wins the FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756558298.831931, "end_time": 1759128693.22, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756558298.831931, "end_time": 1759128693.22, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2651525150628087 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Fide Grand Swiss](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament) is a large, Swiss-style chess tournament organised by FIDE every year, and forms part of the qualifying cycle for the Candidates Tournament - the top 2 players in the Grand Swiss qualify for the candidates. \n\n[The Tournament this year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIDE_Grand_Swiss_Tournament_2025) will take place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, and will consist of 11 rounds of classical chess from the 3rd to the 16th of September 2025. There are 116 players qualified for the tournament - the top 101 rated players who accept their invitation, plus 4 continental qualifiers, 4 nominees from the host country, and 6 nominees by the president of FIDE. \n\nFull tournament regulation [are here](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/Regulations_for_the_FIDE_Grand_Swiss_2025.pdf).\n\nThe top 10 seeded players are: \n\n1. Praggnanandhaa R\n2. Gukesh D\n3. Erigaisi Arjun\n4. Abdusattorov, Nodirbek\n5. Firouzja, Alireza\n6. Giri, Anish\n7. Mamedyarov, Shakhriyar\n8. Nepomniachtchi, Ian\n9. Aronian, Levon\n10. Niemann, Hans Moke" }, { "id": 39324, "title": "Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?", "short_title": "Will the US National Guard shoot a civilian?", "url_title": "Will the US National Guard shoot a civilian?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-guard-shoot-a-civilian", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T19:45:04.605211Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T13:42:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T23:26:07.890458Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T13:43:34.230826Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T13:42:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đïž", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38675, "title": "Will a civilian be shot by the US national guard on US soil before the end of Trump's second term?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T19:45:04.605645Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T13:42:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T13:42:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T13:42:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. National Guard is a reserve military force that operates under both state and federal authority. During peacetime, Guard units are typically controlled by state governors and respond to local emergencies like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, the president can federalize National Guard troops, bringing them under federal control for domestic missions, [a power that bypasses normal restrictions on military involvement in civilian law enforcement when operating under Title 32 status](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890)\n\nIn August 2025, the U.S. National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C, [with around 2,000 troops activated under a declared \"crime emergency\"](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/23/national-guard-dc-streets-scene/) [As of August 24, 2025, the majority of these troops began carrying M17 pistols and some carry M4 rifles, authorized to use weapons for self-protection and \"as a last resort\"](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890). Earlier in June 2025, [approximately 4,000 Guard members and 700 Marines were deployed in Los Angeles amid protests tied to immigration enforcement operations.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-immigration-protests-live-updates-trump-deploys-2000/?id=122621279) [This federal presence remained active for \\[about 60 days before the Pentagon ended the deployment in mid-July.](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/16/nx-s1-5469676/la-national-guard-deployment)\n\nThe administration signed an executive order in late August 2025 directing the [establishment of \"a standing National Guard quick reaction force\" for \"nationwide deployment\".](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/) [Internal Pentagon documents reveal plans for a \"Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force\" of 600 troops stationed in Alabama and Arizona, ready to deploy to American cities within hours.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/) [Trump has indicated willingness to deploy Guard troops to cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Oakland, even over the objections of local officials. ](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/)The combination of armed troops in civilian areas, expanded law enforcement authorities, and rapid-deployment capabilities creates multiple scenarios where confrontations between National Guard personnel and civilians could escalate to the use of deadly force.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, during Donald Trumpâs 2025â2029 presidential term, a civilian located on U.S. soil is shot by a National Guard member while deployed for domestic operations.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"shot\" means being struck by a live round that was discharged from a firearm.\n\nIf Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, and no qualifying incident has occurred, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "post_id": 39324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. National Guard is a reserve military force that operates under both state and federal authority. During peacetime, Guard units are typically controlled by state governors and respond to local emergencies like natural disasters or civil unrest. However, the president can federalize National Guard troops, bringing them under federal control for domestic missions, [a power that bypasses normal restrictions on military involvement in civilian law enforcement when operating under Title 32 status](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890)\n\nIn August 2025, the U.S. National Guard was deployed in Washington, D.C, [with around 2,000 troops activated under a declared \"crime emergency\"](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/08/23/national-guard-dc-streets-scene/) [As of August 24, 2025, the majority of these troops began carrying M17 pistols and some carry M4 rifles, authorized to use weapons for self-protection and \"as a last resort\"](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/national-guard-troops-dc-begin-carrying-firearms-rcna226890). Earlier in June 2025, [approximately 4,000 Guard members and 700 Marines were deployed in Los Angeles amid protests tied to immigration enforcement operations.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/la-immigration-protests-live-updates-trump-deploys-2000/?id=122621279) [This federal presence remained active for \\[about 60 days before the Pentagon ended the deployment in mid-July.](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/16/nx-s1-5469676/la-national-guard-deployment)\n\nThe administration signed an executive order in late August 2025 directing the [establishment of \"a standing National Guard quick reaction force\" for \"nationwide deployment\".](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/) [Internal Pentagon documents reveal plans for a \"Domestic Civil Disturbance Quick Reaction Force\" of 600 troops stationed in Alabama and Arizona, ready to deploy to American cities within hours.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/12/national-guard-civil-unrest/) [Trump has indicated willingness to deploy Guard troops to cities like Chicago, Baltimore, and Oakland, even over the objections of local officials. ](https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2025/08/trump-orders-quick-reaction-force-guard-troops-law-enforcement/407676/)The combination of armed troops in civilian areas, expanded law enforcement authorities, and rapid-deployment capabilities creates multiple scenarios where confrontations between National Guard personnel and civilians could escalate to the use of deadly force." }, { "id": 39322, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-device-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43.561301Z", "published_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-29T19:39:27.397450Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-27T16:47:11.150962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "âąïž", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38673, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-27T16:46:43.561729Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> âWe are closer to this situation than at any point since North Koreaâs last nuclear tests,â said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, Russia conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39322, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> âWe are closer to this situation than at any point since North Koreaâs last nuclear tests,â said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)" }, { "id": 39314, "title": "Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "short_title": "US undergraduate enrollment decline by 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "url_title": "US undergraduate enrollment decline by 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "slug": "us-undergraduate-enrollment-decline-by-10-from-2024-to-2030", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-25T20:10:46.831789Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T02:06:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:24:15.376557Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-28T02:13:28.335952Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T02:06:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đŒ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38667, "title": "Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?", "created_at": "2025-08-25T20:10:46.832255Z", "open_time": "2025-08-29T02:06:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T02:06:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T02:06:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-11-02T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States saw a significant decline in undergraduate enrollment in the last decade, with numbers peaking at approximately [<u>18.1 million students in 2010 before dropping to about 15.4 million by 2021, a 15% reduction</u>](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data on undergraduate enrollment trends from fall 2010 to fall 2021. An impending \"enrollment cliff,\" projected to begin around 2025, is linked to a shrinking college-age population, with the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) estimating a[<u> 13% decrease in high school graduates between 2025 and 2041</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/) due to this demographic shift. This decline has been attributed to[<u> lower birth rates following the 2007-2009 recession, with rates falling from 14.3 to 11.1 per 1,000 people between 2007 and 2022</u>](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN), as reported by the World Bank.\n\nSome analyses, including those from WICHE's \"[<u>Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-Knocking-at-the-College-Door-final.pdf)\" (11th edition), suggest a potential \\~4.2% decline in high school graduates between 2025-26 and 2028-29 (from 3.84 million to 3.68 million), with a 10.3% decline overall between 2023 and 2041, and regional variations possibly exceeding this rate.\n\nHowever, recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Centerâs \"Current Term Enrollment Estimates\" for spring 2025 indicates a[<u> 3.2% increase in total postsecondary enrollment</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), with undergraduate enrollment [<u>rising 3.5% to 15.3 million</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), suggesting resilience from older learners and nontraditional students. Despite this uptick, the long-term trend raises questions about whether enrollment will drop by 2030, due to factors like immigration, online learning adoption, and institutional adaptability.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for Fall 2030, the total undergraduate enrollment in degree-granting post-secondary institutions in the United States falls by 10% or more from the Fall 2024 levels, according to the [National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Research Center](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/).\n\nThe baseline undergraduate enrollment for Fall 2024 is 15,955,978 students, according to [<u>NSC Research Center data</u>](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/researchcenter/viz/CTEEFall2024dashboard/CTEEFall2024) (which reflects a 4.7% increase of \\~716,000 students from Fall 2023). Accordingly, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the total undergraduate enrollment for Fall 2030 is less than 14,360,381.", "fine_print": "This question refers to total undergraduate enrollment across all institution types (public, private nonprofit, and private for-profit, and two-year and four-year programs) and attendance statuses (full-time and part-time) across the United States.\n\nIf NSC data is unavailable, this question may resolve using data from the [National Center for Education Statistics](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha). In this case, resolution will be determined only when official enrollment data for Fall 2030 is published and verified by NCES. Provisional or estimated data will not be used unless it is the final available data by December 31, 2031.", "post_id": 39314, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States saw a significant decline in undergraduate enrollment in the last decade, with numbers peaking at approximately [<u>18.1 million students in 2010 before dropping to about 15.4 million by 2021, a 15% reduction</u>](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/cha), according to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) data on undergraduate enrollment trends from fall 2010 to fall 2021. An impending \"enrollment cliff,\" projected to begin around 2025, is linked to a shrinking college-age population, with the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) estimating a[<u> 13% decrease in high school graduates between 2025 and 2041</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/knocking/) due to this demographic shift. This decline has been attributed to[<u> lower birth rates following the 2007-2009 recession, with rates falling from 14.3 to 11.1 per 1,000 people between 2007 and 2022</u>](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN), as reported by the World Bank.\n\nSome analyses, including those from WICHE's \"[<u>Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates</u>](https://www.wiche.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024-Knocking-at-the-College-Door-final.pdf)\" (11th edition), suggest a potential \\~4.2% decline in high school graduates between 2025-26 and 2028-29 (from 3.84 million to 3.68 million), with a 10.3% decline overall between 2023 and 2041, and regional variations possibly exceeding this rate.\n\nHowever, recent data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Centerâs \"Current Term Enrollment Estimates\" for spring 2025 indicates a[<u> 3.2% increase in total postsecondary enrollment</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), with undergraduate enrollment [<u>rising 3.5% to 15.3 million</u>](https://nscresearchcenter.org/current-term-enrollment-estimates/), suggesting resilience from older learners and nontraditional students. Despite this uptick, the long-term trend raises questions about whether enrollment will drop by 2030, due to factors like immigration, online learning adoption, and institutional adaptability." }, { "id": 39312, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?", "short_title": "Will the number of UFO sightings exceed 350 for September 2025?", "url_title": "Will the number of UFO sightings exceed 350 for September 2025?", "slug": "will-the-number-of-ufo-sightings-exceed-350-for-september-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-23T21:47:26.689129Z", "published_at": "2025-08-24T15:09:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T17:33:54.074878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-27T16:55:00.651995Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38665, "title": "Will the number of UFO sightings reported by the National UFO Reporting Center exceed 350 for September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-23T21:47:26.689524Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-29T15:09:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-29T15:09:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. The purpose is not really to learn about UFOs (although feel free to do that too!), but instead to learn to watch the pace of event occurrences and their trajectory and gain an intuition about doing that type of forecast.*  \n\nNewsNation: [Over 2K UFO sightings reported in first half of 2025](https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/2000-ufo-sightings-first-half-2025/)\n\n> There have been [more than 2,000 sightings of UFOs](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) in the first half of 2025, according to data from the National UFO Reporting Center, or NUFORC.\n\n> The nonprofit organization collects reports of UFOs and investigates cases of unexplained sightings. The 2,174 sightings are an increase from previous years. In 2024, the agency logged 1,492 sightings between the beginning of January and the end of June, and in 2023, 2,077 were recorded in the same time frame.\n\n...\n\n> Those numbers likely only represent a small number of actual sightings, said Christian Stepien, the groupâs chief technology officer. Based on anecdotal evidence, he believes roughly 5% of sightings get reported.\n\n> The group takes reports from everyday citizens as well as air traffic controllers, police and members of the military.\n\nAccording to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/):\n\n> The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Centerâs primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts greater than 350 UFO/UAP sighting reports at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) for the month of September 2025, as displayed when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39312, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756661623.632603, "end_time": 1759005142.665, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756661623.632603, "end_time": 1759005142.665, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5450627997369125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. The purpose is not really to learn about UFOs (although feel free to do that too!), but instead to learn to watch the pace of event occurrences and their trajectory and gain an intuition about doing that type of forecast.*  \n\nNewsNation: [Over 2K UFO sightings reported in first half of 2025](https://www.newsnationnow.com/space/ufo/2000-ufo-sightings-first-half-2025/)\n\n> There have been [more than 2,000 sightings of UFOs](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) in the first half of 2025, according to data from the National UFO Reporting Center, or NUFORC.\n\n> The nonprofit organization collects reports of UFOs and investigates cases of unexplained sightings. The 2,174 sightings are an increase from previous years. In 2024, the agency logged 1,492 sightings between the beginning of January and the end of June, and in 2023, 2,077 were recorded in the same time frame.\n\n...\n\n> Those numbers likely only represent a small number of actual sightings, said Christian Stepien, the groupâs chief technology officer. Based on anecdotal evidence, he believes roughly 5% of sightings get reported.\n\n> The group takes reports from everyday citizens as well as air traffic controllers, police and members of the military.\n\nAccording to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/):\n\n> The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Centerâs primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals." }, { "id": 39303, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "short_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "url_title": "Will Cracker Barrel have falling sales for its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025)?", "slug": "will-cracker-barrel-have-falling-sales-for-its-q1-fy2026-august-october-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-21T21:57:17.015267Z", "published_at": "2025-08-22T00:03:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T10:17:26.747938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-22T00:04:19Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đŒ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38647, "title": "Will Cracker Barrel's revenues decline in its Q1 FY2026 (August-October 2025) compared to the previous year?", "created_at": "2025-08-21T21:57:17.015814Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-27T00:03:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-27T00:03:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> âThis risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,â she told CNN. âIn Cracker Barrelâs case, theyâve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.â\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel âstand out less and risks diluting the brandâs uniqueness,â but the âchallenge is ensuring that modernization doesnât come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.â\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Cracker Barrel, Inc.'s first quarter total revenue in its fiscal year 2026 is less than its first quarter total revenue in FY 2025.  \r\n\r\nThe Q1 2026 total revenue figure is expected to encompass the 13-week period through October 31, 2025, and Q1 2025 encompassed the 13-week period through November 1, 2025. Question resolves according to results posted at [SEC Edgar](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1067294\\&owner=exclude) or Cracker Barrel's [Investor Relations](https://investor.cbrlgroup.com/) page.\r\n\r\nQ1 2025 [had](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067294/000155837024016001/cbrl-20241101x10q.htm#CONDENSEDCONSOLIDATEDSTATEMENTSOFINCOMEL) total revenue of \\$845.089 million. Thus, the question resolves as **Yes** if Q1 2026 total revenue is less than that amount.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756635436.638488, "end_time": 1758515431.694, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756635436.638488, "end_time": 1758515431.694, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4935446516429384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 2.199310118214844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cracker Barrel [unveiled](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cracker-barrel-teams-up-with-country-music-star-jordan-davis-to-invite-guests-to-discover-all-the-more-this-fall-302533419.html) a new logo an hour before market open on August 19, 2025. Over the next three days, the stock price plunged from \\$60.87 to a low of \\$50.27 on August 21, which was a decline of 17%. From there, the stock rallied to \\$54.80 at the end of the day, up 9% from the low. \r\n\r\n<img height=\"266\" width=\"472\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-21_at_7.28.56PM.png\" />Cracker Barrel's CEO, Julie Felss Masino, [said](https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/food/story/cracker-barrel-ceo-announces-campaign-jordan-davis-hints-124769888) regarding the rebranding and other restaurant redesigns and changes, \"The buzz is so good, not only from our customers, but from our team,\" adding that the feedback had been \"overwhelmingly positive.\" \r\n\r\nAccording to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/21/food/cracker-barrel-new-logo), however:  \r\n\r\n> Cracker Barrel risks confusing its customers with a rebrand, especially with its recognizable logo and decor, according to Anjali Bal, associate professor of marketing at Babson College.\r\n\r\n> âThis risk is amplified if the company misjudges the market or fails to communicate the change effectively,â she told CNN. âIn Cracker Barrelâs case, theyâve retained their color palette but altered their iconic logo, which is likely to face resistance simply because of how recognizable it is. That could spark curiosity among new customers, but it may also upset long-time patrons.â\r\n\r\n> Bal added that the updated logo makes Cracker Barrel âstand out less and risks diluting the brandâs uniqueness,â but the âchallenge is ensuring that modernization doesnât come at the expense of brand recognition or emotional connection.â\r\n\r\nIn past quarters, Cracker Barrel's quarterly revenues have been: \r\n\r\n| Period | Revenues in millions | YoY growth |\r\n| ------- | ----------------------- | ---------- |\r\n| Q1 2023 | 839.5 | |\r\n| Q2 2023 | 933.9 | |\r\n| Q3 2023 | 832.7 | |\r\n| Q4 2023 | 836.7 | |\r\n| Q1 2024 | 823.8 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q2 2024 | 935.4 | 0.16% |\r\n| Q3 2024 | 817.1 | -1.87% |\r\n| Q4 2024 | 894.4 | 6.90% |\r\n| Q1 2025 | 845.1 | 2.59% |\r\n| Q2 2025 | 949.4 | 1.50% |\r\n| Q3 2025 | 821.1 | 0.49% |\r\n| Q4 2025 | Expected Sept 23, 2025 | |\r\n| Q1 2026 | Expected early Dec 2025 | |\r\n\r\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you are encouraged to post your forecasting rationale and give and receive constructive feedback. The purpose is to become a stronger forecaster, with this question having the goal of learning to forecast the future of a business, especially one that is in the public spotlight with a wide dispersion of possibilities." }, { "id": 39300, "title": "Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "short_title": "By Dec 1, 2025, will ErdoÄan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "url_title": "By Dec 1, 2025, will ErdoÄan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "slug": "by-dec-1-2025-will-erdogan-be-legally-permitted-to-run-for-another-term", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-21T12:59:22.649709Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:42:07.692656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:42:07.675203Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "đłïž", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38644, "title": "Before December 1, 2025, will Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan be legally permitted to run for another term?", "created_at": "2025-08-21T12:59:22.650214Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:41:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), co-authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: \n\n> We do know that many rigged-election systems impose term limits, but that these are routinely overturned when a leaderâs âlegalâ term is drawing to a close.\n\nTurkish president Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term, and officially this (at the time of this question) is his final term, as he is subject to term limits. ErdoÄan is reportedly working on several options to permit him to run for another term, such as a [new constitution](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-legal-expert-156d44cd84104f0be076a3d2287fc501) or a [constitutional amendment](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fresh-term-turkeys-erdogan-on-our-agenda-ruling-party-spokesman-says-2025-01-13/). At the same time, he has also [said](https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/22/erdogan-says-he-has-no-intention-of-running-again-renews-push-for-new-constitution/), \"I have no ambition to be elected again or to be a candidate again.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2025, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan is, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), legally able run for another consecutive term as president of Turkey (officially the President of the Republic of TĂŒrkiye).", "fine_print": "This may come about through amending or changing the Turkish constitution, a ruling by the Constitutional Court of Turkey, the government enacting a new law, or any other mechanism that legally permits ErdoÄan to run for another consecutive presidential term in the [next Turkish presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Turkish_presidential_election). ", "post_id": 39300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), co-authored by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith: \n\n> We do know that many rigged-election systems impose term limits, but that these are routinely overturned when a leaderâs âlegalâ term is drawing to a close.\n\nTurkish president Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan [was](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) re-elected in 2023 for a five-year term, and officially this (at the time of this question) is his final term, as he is subject to term limits. ErdoÄan is reportedly working on several options to permit him to run for another term, such as a [new constitution](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-new-constitution-legal-expert-156d44cd84104f0be076a3d2287fc501) or a [constitutional amendment](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/fresh-term-turkeys-erdogan-on-our-agenda-ruling-party-spokesman-says-2025-01-13/). At the same time, he has also [said](https://www.turkishminute.com/2025/05/22/erdogan-says-he-has-no-intention-of-running-again-renews-push-for-new-constitution/), \"I have no ambition to be elected again or to be a candidate again.\"" }, { "id": 39295, "title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "short_title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80+%?", "url_title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80+%?", "slug": "will-samia-suluhu-hassan-win-the-next-tanzanian-election-with-80", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T22:01:32.631322Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:29.875976Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:41:29.857076Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "đłïž", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38641, "title": "Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the next Tanzanian election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T22:01:32.631680Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:41:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to serve as president of Tanzania, was sworn in on March 19, 2021, following the death of President John Magufuli. President Magufuli had pushed Tanzania deeper into authoritarianism, according to his [obituary](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/world/africa/tanzania-president-magufuli-dead.html) in the New York Times. Suluhu, at that time vice president of Tanzania, [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/africa/tanzania-samia-suluhu-hassan-president-intl/) the death of President Magufuli of heart disease, although his death was marked by rumors of other causes of death, such as it being from complications of COVID-19 or even [poisoning](https://mythdetector.com/en/what-caused-the-death-of-the-tanzanian-president/).\n\nIn the 2021 election, Magufuli, with Suluhu as his running mate, [won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tanzanian_general_election) with 84.4% of the vote. In the 2015 election, he won with 58.46% of the vote. Previous elections in Tanzania have had the winner receive 62.83%, in 2010, and 80.28% in 2005. \n\nIn the upcoming October 2025 election, the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been [barred](https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/tanzania%E2%80%99s-main-opposition-chadema-party-barred-upcoming-elections) from the election due to failing to sign a mandatory code of conduct form. According to *The Dictator's Handbook* in Chapter 10: \n\n> True, meaningful elections might be the final goal, but elections *for their own sake* should never be the objective. When the international community pushes for elections without being careful about how meaningful they are, all that is accomplished is to further entrench a nasty regime. International inspectors, for instance, like to certify whether people could freely go to the polling place and whether their votes were properly counted, as if that means there was a free and fair election. Thereâs no reason to impede the opportunity to vote or to cheat when counting votes if, for instance, a regime first bans parties that might be real rivals, or if a government sets up campaign constraints that make it easy for the governmentâs party to tell its story and makes it impossible for the opposition to do the same.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Samia Suluhu Hassan wins the next presidential election in Tanzania, currently [scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Tanzanian_general_election) for October 29, 2025, with 80% or more of the votes cast. If Suluhu receives less than 80% of the votes cast, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": " If the election is changed to a date other October 29, 2025, the question may resolve on the new date. However, if no presidential election is held in Tanzania before December 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Samia Suluhu Hassan, the first woman to serve as president of Tanzania, was sworn in on March 19, 2021, following the death of President John Magufuli. President Magufuli had pushed Tanzania deeper into authoritarianism, according to his [obituary](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/world/africa/tanzania-president-magufuli-dead.html) in the New York Times. Suluhu, at that time vice president of Tanzania, [announced](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/19/africa/tanzania-samia-suluhu-hassan-president-intl/) the death of President Magufuli of heart disease, although his death was marked by rumors of other causes of death, such as it being from complications of COVID-19 or even [poisoning](https://mythdetector.com/en/what-caused-the-death-of-the-tanzanian-president/).\n\nIn the 2021 election, Magufuli, with Suluhu as his running mate, [won](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Tanzanian_general_election) with 84.4% of the vote. In the 2015 election, he won with 58.46% of the vote. Previous elections in Tanzania have had the winner receive 62.83%, in 2010, and 80.28% in 2005. \n\nIn the upcoming October 2025 election, the main opposition party, CHADEMA, has been [barred](https://www.ictj.org/latest-news/tanzania%E2%80%99s-main-opposition-chadema-party-barred-upcoming-elections) from the election due to failing to sign a mandatory code of conduct form. According to *The Dictator's Handbook* in Chapter 10: \n\n> True, meaningful elections might be the final goal, but elections *for their own sake* should never be the objective. When the international community pushes for elections without being careful about how meaningful they are, all that is accomplished is to further entrench a nasty regime. International inspectors, for instance, like to certify whether people could freely go to the polling place and whether their votes were properly counted, as if that means there was a free and fair election. Thereâs no reason to impede the opportunity to vote or to cheat when counting votes if, for instance, a regime first bans parties that might be real rivals, or if a government sets up campaign constraints that make it easy for the governmentâs party to tell its story and makes it impossible for the opposition to do the same." }, { "id": 39294, "title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "short_title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with â„80% of the vote?", "url_title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with â„80% of the vote?", "slug": "will-paul-biya-win-the-next-cameroon-election-with-80-of-the-vote", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T19:49:40.266173Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:31.667761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:39:31.650037Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "đłïž", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38640, "title": "Will Paul Biya win the next Cameroon election with 80% or more of the votes cast?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T19:49:40.266641Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:39:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Paul Biya, age 92 has served as President of Cameroon since 1982. He won the past few elections with the following percentages:\n\n* [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 71.28%\n* [2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 77.99%\n* [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 70.92%\n* [1997](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 92.57%\n* [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 39.98%\n\nCameroon has [barred](https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/06/cameroon-doubles-down-on-excluding-opposition-candidate-from-elections) key opposition figure Maurice Kamto from the election. There have been [calls](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/election-season-rekindles-fears-in-anglophone-cameroon) from certain groups to boycott the election.\n\nAccording to the 2003 book [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), which had as contributors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (who co-authored *The Dictator's Handbook*) (pages 502-3): \n\n> Cameroon was led by its first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, from 1960 until 1982 when he voluntarily stepping down, citing exhaustion and ill health. He was replaced by his prime minister, Paul Biya, who continues in office as of this writing (2002). Ahidjo first won office in 1960 with a small majority in a closely contested election. However, using opposition violence as a justification, Ahidjo suspended the constitution in 1962, dispensed with competitive elections, and presided over a one-party state, ruling through presidential emergency powers. He stood for re-election several times, but without any opportunity for meaningful electoral opposition. Paul Biya, himself inclined toward dictatorship, later indicted and tried Ahidjo in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup dâetat for which Ahidjo was sentenced to death. Ahidjo, exiled in France, died peacefully. Biya continues to rule over Cameroon, having been âre-electedâ several times by nearly 100 percent of the vote. Of course, it helps with re-election that the Cameroon government permits no opposition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Paul Biya wins the next presidential election in Cameroon, currently [scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election) for October 12, 2025, with 80% or more of the votes cast. If Biya receives less than 80% of the votes cast, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": " If the election is changed to a date other October 12, 2025, the question may resolve on the new date. However, if no presidential election is held in Cameroon before December 1, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 39294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Paul Biya, age 92 has served as President of Cameroon since 1982. He won the past few elections with the following percentages:\n\n* [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 71.28%\n* [2011](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 77.99%\n* [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 70.92%\n* [1997](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 92.57%\n* [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election) 39.98%\n\nCameroon has [barred](https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/08/06/cameroon-doubles-down-on-excluding-opposition-candidate-from-elections) key opposition figure Maurice Kamto from the election. There have been [calls](https://www.genocidewatch.com/single-post/election-season-rekindles-fears-in-anglophone-cameroon) from certain groups to boycott the election.\n\nAccording to the 2003 book [The Logic of Political Survival](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227458612_The_Logic_of_Political_Survival), which had as contributors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith (who co-authored *The Dictator's Handbook*) (pages 502-3): \n\n> Cameroon was led by its first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo, from 1960 until 1982 when he voluntarily stepping down, citing exhaustion and ill health. He was replaced by his prime minister, Paul Biya, who continues in office as of this writing (2002). Ahidjo first won office in 1960 with a small majority in a closely contested election. However, using opposition violence as a justification, Ahidjo suspended the constitution in 1962, dispensed with competitive elections, and presided over a one-party state, ruling through presidential emergency powers. He stood for re-election several times, but without any opportunity for meaningful electoral opposition. Paul Biya, himself inclined toward dictatorship, later indicted and tried Ahidjo in absentia for allegedly plotting a coup dâetat for which Ahidjo was sentenced to death. Ahidjo, exiled in France, died peacefully. Biya continues to rule over Cameroon, having been âre-electedâ several times by nearly 100 percent of the vote. Of course, it helps with re-election that the Cameroon government permits no opposition." }, { "id": 39293, "title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections before November 24, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections before November 24, 2025?", "slug": "will-guinea-bissau-hold-elections-before-november-24-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T18:43:13.676072Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:27:17.575424Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:27:17.540355Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "đłïž", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38639, "title": "Will Guinea-Bissau hold elections for the National People's Assembly and the president before November 24, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T18:43:13.676514Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau's general elections, originally scheduled for November 24, 2024, were [postponed](https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/report/guinea-bissau/november-2024) by President Umaro Sissoco EmbalĂł to November 30, 2025 and then [moved up](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-bissau-hold-presidential-legislative-vote-november-23-2025-03-07/) to November 23, 2025. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau/freedom-world/2025) Guinea-Bissau as 41/100 or \"partly free.\"  \n\nAs the head of the opposition party at the time, in the 2019 President EmbalĂł [defeated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) the then-incument president in an election characterized by [accusations](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-election-polls-close-amid-fraud-claims/a-51396435) of fraud. In 2024, the opposition [accused](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-opposition-fears-dictatorship/a-68641868) EmbalĂł of seeking dictatorship after dissolving parliament and arresting opposition figures in response to coup attempt.  \n\nAccording to Chapter 8 of *The Dictator's Handbook*:\n\n> Dictators seem to like to hold elections. Whether they do so to satisfy international pressure (and gain more foreign aid), to dispel domestic unrest, or to gain a misleading sense of legitimacy, their preference is to rig the vote count. Elections are nice, but winning is nicer. Still, sometimes the people seize the moment of an election to shock the incumbent, voting so overwhelmingly for someone else that it is hard to cover up the true outcome.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Y**es** if, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reports, the [general elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election) for both president and National People's Assembly are held in Guinea-Bissau before November 24, 2025.", "fine_print": "If there are multiple days of voting, it counts as long as the date of the first day of in-person voting takes before November 24, 2025.", "post_id": 39293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau's general elections, originally scheduled for November 24, 2024, were [postponed](https://www.idea.int/democracytracker/report/guinea-bissau/november-2024) by President Umaro Sissoco EmbalĂł to November 30, 2025 and then [moved up](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/guinea-bissau-hold-presidential-legislative-vote-november-23-2025-03-07/) to November 23, 2025. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau/freedom-world/2025) Guinea-Bissau as 41/100 or \"partly free.\"  \n\nAs the head of the opposition party at the time, in the 2019 President EmbalĂł [defeated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) the then-incument president in an election characterized by [accusations](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-election-polls-close-amid-fraud-claims/a-51396435) of fraud. In 2024, the opposition [accused](https://www.dw.com/en/guinea-bissau-opposition-fears-dictatorship/a-68641868) EmbalĂł of seeking dictatorship after dissolving parliament and arresting opposition figures in response to coup attempt.  \n\nAccording to Chapter 8 of *The Dictator's Handbook*:\n\n> Dictators seem to like to hold elections. Whether they do so to satisfy international pressure (and gain more foreign aid), to dispel domestic unrest, or to gain a misleading sense of legitimacy, their preference is to rig the vote count. Elections are nice, but winning is nicer. Still, sometimes the people seize the moment of an election to shock the incumbent, voting so overwhelmingly for someone else that it is hard to cover up the true outcome." }, { "id": 39292, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:41.816301Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:04.803733Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-20T17:45:10.596859Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-01T01:17:05.034337Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38638, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:41.816681Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-25T17:43:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-25T17:43:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup dâĂ©tat in any country on the African continent or Latin America after August 21, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup dâĂ©tat (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 39292, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756689413.802908, "end_time": 1758515461.611, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756689413.802908, "end_time": 1758515461.611, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.30091213294393343 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7050288072910238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8290023480542336, 0.704933984898323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 39291, "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her dad, Kim Jong Un, before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her dad, Kim Jong Un, before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-kim-ju-ae-appear-alongside-her-dad-kim-jong-un-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T16:42:05.130033Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:34.008346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:33.988591Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38637, "title": "Will Kim Ju Ae appear alongside her father, Kim Jong Un, at any official ceremonies before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T16:42:05.130439Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been [speculation](https://archive.ph/jZduA) that the assumed successor of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might be his \\~12 year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae. They have appeared in several public ceremonies, [such as](https://apnews.com/article/politics-north-korea-government-kim-jong-un-united-states-d5bb73116705610eca6cec2210dd4303) at a North Korean military parade in 2023. There is a [likely](https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-upgrading-military-parade-training-base-ahead-of-likely-oct-event/) military parade being held in October 2025. \n\nAccording to Chapter 2 of The Dictator's Handbook: \n\n> Health concerns for North Koreaâs Kim Jong Il and Cubaâs Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation. Both have attempted to stave off defection by their essential coalition members by nominating heirs. Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul, to president when Fidelâs survival was in doubt following major surgery. By designating heirs who might keep the existing winning coalition largely intact, these leaders sought to prevent the incumbency advantage from disappearing as their ability to deliver on political promises was brought into jeopardy.\n\n> Impending death often induces political death. The sad truth is that if you want to come to power in an autocracy you are better off stealing medicalrecords than you are devising fixes for your nationâs ills.\n\nChapter 1: \n\n> *Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible.* A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures.\n\n> Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea \\[father of Kim Jong Un]. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.\n\nThe Kim family has dominated the North Korean leadership since 1948, with the rulers being Kim Il Sung, who led the country from 1948 until 1994; Kim Jong Il, who led from 1994 to 2011; and present leader, Kim Jong Un, who has led North Korea since 2011, technically under the title of [General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Workers%27_Party_of_Korea). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un make a public appearance together. ", "fine_print": "\"Public appearance\" is defined as Kim Ju Ae and Kim Jong Un presenting themselves in front of an in-person audience at an official ceremony. Virtual appearances, such as a joint televised address, do not count unless made in front of an in-person audience.\n\n\"Together\" is defined as occupying the same physical space closely enough at a public venue that they can see and hear each other through direct un-intermediated exchange of photons and sound waves.", "post_id": 39291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been [speculation](https://archive.ph/jZduA) that the assumed successor of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un might be his \\~12 year-old daughter, Kim Ju-ae. They have appeared in several public ceremonies, [such as](https://apnews.com/article/politics-north-korea-government-kim-jong-un-united-states-d5bb73116705610eca6cec2210dd4303) at a North Korean military parade in 2023. There is a [likely](https://www.nknews.org/pro/north-korea-upgrading-military-parade-training-base-ahead-of-likely-oct-event/) military parade being held in October 2025. \n\nAccording to Chapter 2 of The Dictator's Handbook: \n\n> Health concerns for North Koreaâs Kim Jong Il and Cubaâs Fidel Castro have engendered similarly intense political speculation. Both have attempted to stave off defection by their essential coalition members by nominating heirs. Kim Jong Il promoted his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to a variety of posts, including the rank of four-star general, even though his son has no military experience. Fidel Castro likewise promoted his brother, Raul, to president when Fidelâs survival was in doubt following major surgery. By designating heirs who might keep the existing winning coalition largely intact, these leaders sought to prevent the incumbency advantage from disappearing as their ability to deliver on political promises was brought into jeopardy.\n\n> Impending death often induces political death. The sad truth is that if you want to come to power in an autocracy you are better off stealing medicalrecords than you are devising fixes for your nationâs ills.\n\nChapter 1: \n\n> *Rule 1: Keep your winning coalition as small as possible.* A small coalition allows a leader to rely on very few people to stay in power. Fewer essentials equals more control and contributes to more discretion over expenditures.\n\n> Bravo for Kim Jong Il of North Korea \\[father of Kim Jong Un]. He is a contemporary master at ensuring dependence on a small coalition.\n\nThe Kim family has dominated the North Korean leadership since 1948, with the rulers being Kim Il Sung, who led the country from 1948 until 1994; Kim Jong Il, who led from 1994 to 2011; and present leader, Kim Jong Un, who has led North Korea since 2011, technically under the title of [General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Workers%27_Party_of_Korea). " }, { "id": 39289, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-ahmed-al-sharaa-lose-power-as-president-of-syria-before-december-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.048800Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:19.254122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:17:19.236160Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đïž", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 38636, "title": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa lose power as President of Syria before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T13:49:28.049262Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:17:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards donât come cheaply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be the [President of Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Syria) before December 1, 2025, for any reason. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Long-time Syrian dictator Bashar-al-Assad fled into exile in December 2024, with [Ahmed al-Sharaa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ahmed_al-Sharaa \"Ahmed al-Sharaa\") sworn in as transitional president on January 29, 2025. \n\nAccording to *The Dictator's Handbook* in chapter 3:\n\n> Although autocrats survive longer, they find surviving the initial period in office particularly difficult. During their first half year they are nearly twice as likely to be deposed as their democratic counterparts. However, if they survive those first turbulent months, then they have a much better chance of staying in power than democrats. Those early months are difficult because they have not yet worked out where the money is, making them unreliable sources of wealth for their coalition, and they have yet to work out whose support they really need and who they can dump from their transitional coalition.\n\nRisk of ouster by type of government:\n\n<img height=\"394\" width=\"530\" src=\"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_9.57.12AM.png\" />\n\n> Staying in power right after having come to power is tough, but a successful leader will seize power, then reshuffle the coalition that brought him there to redouble his strength. A smart leader sacks some early backers, replacing them with more reliable and cheaper supporters. But no matter how much he packs the coalition with his friends and supporters, they will not remain loyal unless he rewards them. And as we will see in the next chapter, rewards donât come cheaply." }, { "id": 39288, "title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before Dec 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before Dec 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-russian-elites-die-under-suspicious-circumstances-before-dec-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-20T00:09:53.763626Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:48.713664Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-21T15:16:48.695786Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đïž", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32825, "name": "A Dictatorâs Diary: The Strategic Logic of Political Survival", "type": "community", "slug": "cor131", "description": "Class tournament for Flagler College COR 131 Fall 2025. These forecasting questions help us understand the two fundamental questions of the class:\n\n1. How do dictators achieve power?\n2. How do dictators maintain power?", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12.15.08PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-08-20_at_12_HQEBgnA.15.08PM.png", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 241241, "username": "furprincess8", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 38635, "title": "Will any Russian elites die under suspicious circumstances before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-20T00:09:53.764057Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-26T15:16:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For a historical list, please see from Wikipedia [Suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022). Note, however, that not all would have counted for purposes of this question.\n\nChapter 3 of *The Dictator's Handbook* says: \n\n> In fact, having competent ministers, or competent corporate board members, can be a dangerous mistake. Competent people, after all, are potential (and potentially competent) rivals.\n\n> The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty. Successful leaders surround themselves with trusted friends and family, and rid themselves of any ambitious supporters. Carly Fiorina had a hard time achieving that objective and as a result she failed to last long. Fidel Castro, by contrast, was a master (of course, he had fewer impediments to overcome in what he could do than did Fiorina) and he lasted in power for nearly half a century.\n\n> The implications of this aspect of political logic are profound, particularly in small coalition governments. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, like Idi Amin in Uganda and so many other eventual national leaders, started as a street thug. Autocrats donât need West Point graduates to protect them. Once in power, people like Amin and Hussein wisely surround themselves with trusted members of their own tribe or clan, installing them in the most important positionsâthose involving force and moneyâand killing anyone that may turn out to be a rival.\n\nAnd then from Chapter 8:\n\n> A prudent dictator nips rebellion in the bud. That is why we have reiterated the claim that only people willing to engage in really nasty behavior should contemplate becoming dictators. The softhearted will find themselves ousted in the blink of an eye", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, any Russian elite dies under suspicious circumstances, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. \n\n\"Elite\" is defined as any current or former member of the Russian [cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Russia#Current_Cabinet); a current or former member of the [State Duma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Duma) or [Federation Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federation_Council_of_Russia); an oligarch, which is defined as any Russian with a net worth of at least \\$100 million or anyone who is currently CEO, chairman, controlling shareholder, or founder of a public company; any current member of the Russian military with a rank of [lieutenant-general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Army_ranks_and_insignia_of_the_Russian_Federation#Officers), [vitse-admiral, ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Navy#Commissioned_officer_ranks)or higher; or any current or former head of a Russian[ federal subject](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_federal_subjects_of_Russia). \n\n\"Suspicious circumstances\" is defined as ICD-10 Version:2019 [external causes of morbidity and mortality](https://icd.who.int/browse10/2019/en#/XX) V01-X59 Accidents, X60-X84 Intentional self-harm, X85-Y09 Assault, and Y10-Y34 Event of undetermined intent.\n\nIf no such reported deaths occur after August 31, 2025 and before December 1, 2025, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "An example that would have counted is YevgenyâŻPrigozhin, who had a reported net worth greater than \\$100 million and [died in a plane crash](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/who-killed-yevgeny-prigozhin). Another who would have counted is Transport Minister Roman Starovoit, who \"[shot himself](https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-former-transport-minister-starovoit-has-shot-himself-izvestiya-cites-2025-07-07/)\" on July 7, 2025. An example that would not have counted for purposes of this question is Dmitri Osipov, chairman of [Urakali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uralkali) who died suddenly on August 12, 2025, but [reportedly](https://news.rambler.ru/incidents/55128524-v-vozraste-59-let-ot-raka-umer-byvshiy-gendirektor-uralkaliya-dmitriy-osipov/) of cancer. Nor would Mikhail Kenin, founder of Samolet, who [died ](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/property-mogul-links-putin-regime-35711683)suddenly on August 11, 2025, though with no cause of death publicly reported at the time of this question other than \"acute heart failure.\"", "post_id": 39288, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For a historical list, please see from Wikipedia [Suspicious Russia-related deaths since 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_Russia-related_deaths_since_2022). Note, however, that not all would have counted for purposes of this question.\n\nChapter 3 of *The Dictator's Handbook* says: \n\n> In fact, having competent ministers, or competent corporate board members, can be a dangerous mistake. Competent people, after all, are potential (and potentially competent) rivals.\n\n> The three most important characteristics of a coalition are: (1) Loyalty; (2) Loyalty; (3) Loyalty. Successful leaders surround themselves with trusted friends and family, and rid themselves of any ambitious supporters. Carly Fiorina had a hard time achieving that objective and as a result she failed to last long. Fidel Castro, by contrast, was a master (of course, he had fewer impediments to overcome in what he could do than did Fiorina) and he lasted in power for nearly half a century.\n\n> The implications of this aspect of political logic are profound, particularly in small coalition governments. Saddam Hussein in Iraq, like Idi Amin in Uganda and so many other eventual national leaders, started as a street thug. Autocrats donât need West Point graduates to protect them. Once in power, people like Amin and Hussein wisely surround themselves with trusted members of their own tribe or clan, installing them in the most important positionsâthose involving force and moneyâand killing anyone that may turn out to be a rival.\n\nAnd then from Chapter 8:\n\n> A prudent dictator nips rebellion in the bud. That is why we have reiterated the claim that only people willing to engage in really nasty behavior should contemplate becoming dictators. The softhearted will find themselves ousted in the blink of an eye" }, { "id": 39268, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "url_title": "SAF-RSF face-to-face peace talks by end of 2025?", "slug": "saf-rsf-face-to-face-peace-talks-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T19:03:50.129162Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T01:13:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-28T05:06:55.676181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T01:15:12Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T01:13:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "đ", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đïž", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38610, "title": "Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T19:03:50.129515Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T01:13:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-24T01:13:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-24T01:13:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T20:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **YES** if credible media reports or official statements confirm that both Sudanese Armed Forces ([SAF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces)) and Rapid Support Forces ([RSF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces)) delegations are physically present at the same location simultaneously for peace negotiations before December 31, 2025. Both delegations must be present at the same venue during overlapping time periods (not virtual participation). Any official delegation level qualifies, including military commanders, political representatives, or designated negotiators.\n\nSources for resolution include, but are not limited to, reports from Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera, UN statements, African Union announcements, or official statements from the SAF or RSF.", "fine_print": "Informal or track-two meetings without official delegation status do not qualify. Meetings must be explicitly characterized as peace negotiations, ceasefire talks, or political dialogueânot merely humanitarian coordination. Sequential meetings where parties attend the same venue at different times do not qualify.", "post_id": 39268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756357605.260489, "end_time": 1758474094.394, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756357605.260489, "end_time": 1758474094.394, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.1920640093202917 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The war between Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has run since April 15, 2023, causing [over 11 million internal displacements](https://dtm.iom.int/sudan) and widespread humanitarian catastrophe. Despite multiple international mediation efforts, including initiatives by the African Union, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Saudi Arabia, and the United States, the warring parties have not engaged in meaningful face-to-face negotiations. \n\nIn the latest [Geneva peace talks](https://www.usip.org/publications/2024/09/without-sudans-warring-parties-geneva-whats-next-peace-talks) co-hosted by the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland in August 2024, the RSF delegation did attend in person, but the SAF did not physically participate. \n\nPrevious peace efforts have been hampered by mutual distrust, with each side setting preconditions for talks. The SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (also known as Hemedti), have participated in separate international forums but avoided direct bilateral negotiations. The [Jeddah talks](https://2021-2025.state.gov/joint-statement-on-commitments-from-jeddah-talks-between-sudanese-armed-forces-and-rapid-support-forces/) in 2023 achieved limited humanitarian agreements but collapsed without substantive political progress.\n\nRegional and international pressure for negotiations has intensified as the humanitarian crisis deepens, with calls from the UN Security Council, African Union Peace and Security Council, and neighboring countries for immediate ceasefire and political dialogue." }, { "id": 39265, "title": "Will the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses in Pensacola increase by at least 25% in 2028 versus baseline 2024 figures?", "short_title": "25% Increase in Minority Business Share?", "url_title": "25% Increase in Minority Business Share?", "slug": "25-increase-in-minority-business-share", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:32.644014Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:45.719150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:45.696473Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-28T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38607, "title": "Will the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses in Pensacola increase by at least 25% in 2028 versus baseline 2024 figures?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:32.644420Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-28T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Economic opportunity remains unequally distributed in Pensacola, with minority entrepreneurs facing systemic barriers to business ownership. Increasing the share of minority-owned businesses among new startups would signal progress toward economic equity, create wealth in underserved communities, and strengthen the city's economic resilience through diversification.\n\n**Current Disparities**\n\nThe business ownership gap reflects broader inequities:\n- Black residents comprise 28% of Pensacola population but own <10% of businesses\n- Hispanic residents are 7% of population but own <5% of businesses\n- Minority-owned businesses receive <2% of venture capital nationally\n- Average white family wealth is 8x that of Black families\n- Business ownership is primary wealth-building vehicle\n\nThis gap perpetuates cycles of poverty and limits economic mobility.\n\n**Understanding the Metric**\n\nThe \"share\" measurement focuses on new business formation:\n- Baseline: Percentage of 2024 new business licenses that are minority-owned\n- Target: That percentage increased by 25% (relative, not absolute)\n- Example: If 20% of 2024 new businesses are minority-owned, target is 25% (a 25% increase)\n\nThis measures entrepreneurship trends, not existing business composition.\n\n**Barriers Minority Entrepreneurs Face**\n\nSystemic obstacles include:\n\n**Capital Access**:\n- Lower approval rates for business loans\n- Less personal/family wealth for startup capital\n- Limited angel investor networks\n- Predatory lending targeting minorities\n- Collateral requirements disadvantaging renters\n\n**Network Gaps**:\n- Fewer business owner role models\n- Limited mentorship opportunities\n- Exclusion from informal business networks\n- Less access to professional services\n- Weaker supplier relationships\n\n**Institutional Barriers**:\n- Discrimination in commercial leasing\n- Zoning that limits home-based businesses\n- Occupational licensing requirements\n- Complex regulatory compliance\n- Language barriers for immigrants\n\n**Market Challenges**:\n- Customer bias affecting revenue\n- Difficulty accessing corporate contracts\n- Geographic isolation from markets\n- Limited marketing resources\n- Credit discrimination affecting operations\n\n**Proven Strategies for Growth**\n\nSuccessful cities employ multiple interventions:\n\n**Access to Capital**:\n- Microloan programs ($500-$50,000)\n- Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)\n- Crowdfunding platforms\n- Guarantee programs reducing lender risk\n- Grant programs for startups\n\n**Business Support Services**:\n- Incubators in minority communities\n- Free legal and accounting assistance\n- Mentorship matching programs\n- Peer learning circles\n- Industry-specific training\n\n**Procurement Opportunities**:\n- Minority business enterprise (MBE) certification\n- Set-asides for city contracts\n- Supplier diversity programs\n- Corporate partnership facilitation\n- Anchor institution commitments\n\n**Real Estate Solutions**:\n- Affordable commercial space programs\n- Pop-up shop opportunities\n- Shared kitchen/maker spaces\n- Home-based business zoning reform\n- Commercial land trusts\n\n**Ecosystem Building**:\n- Minority entrepreneur associations\n- Culturally relevant business education\n- Success story amplification\n- Community investment funds\n- Youth entrepreneurship programs\n\n**Potential Pensacola Initiatives**\n\nSpecific actions that could drive growth:\n\n**City Programs**:\n- Small business grant fund ($1-2M annually)\n- Streamlined licensing for low-impact businesses\n- Mobile business license office in underserved areas\n- Multilingual business support services\n- Vacant storefront activation program\n\n**Partnerships**:\n- UWF entrepreneurship program expansion\n- Chamber of Commerce diversity initiative\n- Bank CRA commitment leverage\n- Corporate mentor programs\n- Faith-based business ministries\n\n**Policy Changes**:\n- Zoning reform allowing more home businesses\n- Reduced licensing fees for microbusinesses\n- Expedited permitting for minority-owned businesses\n- Procurement policy strengthening\n- Commercial affordability requirements\n\n**The 25% Increase Target**\n\nWhy 25% is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Baseline Context** (estimated):\n- Current minority-owned share: 15-25% of new businesses\n- Target increase: 19-31% share\n- Represents 50-100 additional minority-owned businesses annually\n\n**Comparable City Results**:\n- Durham: 30% increase over 3 years\n- Minneapolis: 25% increase over 2 years\n- Portland: 20% increase over 3 years\n- Richmond: 35% increase over 4 years\n\nSuccess requires sustained, multi-faceted effort.\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nAchieving 25% increase would generate:\n\n**Direct Benefits**:\n- 50-100 new minority-owned businesses annually\n- 200-500 new jobs created\n- $10-25M in new economic activity\n- $1-3M in additional tax revenue\n\n**Indirect Benefits**:\n- Wealth building in minority communities\n- Role models for youth\n- Reduced unemployment\n- Neighborhood revitalization\n- Economic resilience through diversity\n\n**Multiplier Effects**:\n- Minority businesses hire more minority employees\n- Profits circulate within communities\n- Success breeds more entrepreneurship\n- Cultural economy strengthens\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nEarly signs of progress:\n- Minority business support programs launched\n- Capital access initiatives funded\n- Business license applications increasing\n- Minority chamber membership growing\n- Success stories gaining visibility\n- Corporate commitments announced\n\n**Measurement Considerations**\n\nTracking requirements:\n- Self-identification of minority status\n- Consistent data collection methods\n- Quarterly reporting recommended\n- Demographic category definitions\n- Verification processes\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving target:\n- Economic downturn reducing all startups\n- Gentrification displacing minority residents\n- Limited program funding\n- Political resistance to targeted programs\n- Data collection gaps\n- Definition disputes\n\n**The Equity Imperative**\n\nBusiness ownership equity matters because:\n- Wealth gaps won't close without ownership\n- Diverse economies are stronger economies\n- Innovation comes from diverse perspectives\n- Democratic capitalism requires broad participation\n- Communities thrive with local ownership\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nGulf Coast minority entrepreneurship:\n- New Orleans: Strong Black business tradition\n- Birmingham: Growing minority tech sector\n- Atlanta: Black entrepreneurship capital\n- Miami: Hispanic business hub\n\nPensacola can learn from and compete with these markets.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the share of minority-owned businesses among new business licenses issued in Pensacola increases by at least 25% in 2028 compared to the 2024 baseline.\n\n**Calculation Method**:\n1. 2024 Baseline: (Minority-owned new licenses / Total new licenses) Ă 100\n2. 2028 Target: (Minority-owned new licenses / Total new licenses) Ă 100\n3. Increase: ((2028 share - 2024 share) / 2024 share) Ă 100 â„ 25%\n\n**Example**:\n- If 2024: 100 minority-owned out of 500 total = 20% share\n- Target 2028: At least 25% share (125 minority-owned out of 500)\n- This represents a 25% relative increase in the share\n\n**\"Minority-Owned\" Definition**:\nBusiness where one or more minority individuals own at least 51% of the business. Minorities include:\n- Black/African American\n- Hispanic/Latino\n- Asian\n- Native American/Alaska Native\n- Pacific Islander\n- Middle Eastern/North African (if tracked)\n- Multiracial individuals\n\n**\"New Business License\" Definition**:\n- Initial business tax receipt/license issued\n- Not renewals or transfers\n- All business types (retail, service, professional, etc.)\n- Home-based businesses included\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n\n**Data Sources** (in order of preference):\n1. City of Pensacola business license database with demographics\n2. Pensacola Chamber of Commerce diversity report\n3. City economic development reports\n4. University of West Florida economic studies\n5. State of Florida minority business statistics (city-specific)\n\n**Self-Identification Requirements**:\n- Based on voluntary self-identification\n- City must collect this data for both years\n- If multiple owners, count if any qualify as minority\n- No verification/certification required beyond self-reporting\n\n**What Counts**:\n- Sole proprietorships\n- Partnerships\n- Corporations\n- LLCs\n- Non-profits operating businesses\n- Franchise owners (if minority-owned)\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Business license renewals\n- Transfers of existing businesses\n- Businesses outside city limits\n- Government entities\n- Inactive licenses (must operate in year)\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n- If boundaries change, use 2024 boundaries for both years\n\n**Time Period**:\n- 2024: January 1 - December 31, 2024\n- 2028: January 1 - December 31, 2028\n- Full year data required for both\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If demographic data not collected in 2024: Use 2025 as baseline\n- If data collection methods change: Attempt consistent comparison\n- Missing demographic data: Only count known minority-owned\n- If city stops issuing licenses: AMBIGUOUS\n- Joint ventures: Count if minority partner has â„51% ownership", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Economic opportunity remains unequally distributed in Pensacola, with minority entrepreneurs facing systemic barriers to business ownership. Increasing the share of minority-owned businesses among new startups would signal progress toward economic equity, create wealth in underserved communities, and strengthen the city's economic resilience through diversification.\n\n**Current Disparities**\n\nThe business ownership gap reflects broader inequities:\n- Black residents comprise 28% of Pensacola population but own <10% of businesses\n- Hispanic residents are 7% of population but own <5% of businesses\n- Minority-owned businesses receive <2% of venture capital nationally\n- Average white family wealth is 8x that of Black families\n- Business ownership is primary wealth-building vehicle\n\nThis gap perpetuates cycles of poverty and limits economic mobility.\n\n**Understanding the Metric**\n\nThe \"share\" measurement focuses on new business formation:\n- Baseline: Percentage of 2024 new business licenses that are minority-owned\n- Target: That percentage increased by 25% (relative, not absolute)\n- Example: If 20% of 2024 new businesses are minority-owned, target is 25% (a 25% increase)\n\nThis measures entrepreneurship trends, not existing business composition.\n\n**Barriers Minority Entrepreneurs Face**\n\nSystemic obstacles include:\n\n**Capital Access**:\n- Lower approval rates for business loans\n- Less personal/family wealth for startup capital\n- Limited angel investor networks\n- Predatory lending targeting minorities\n- Collateral requirements disadvantaging renters\n\n**Network Gaps**:\n- Fewer business owner role models\n- Limited mentorship opportunities\n- Exclusion from informal business networks\n- Less access to professional services\n- Weaker supplier relationships\n\n**Institutional Barriers**:\n- Discrimination in commercial leasing\n- Zoning that limits home-based businesses\n- Occupational licensing requirements\n- Complex regulatory compliance\n- Language barriers for immigrants\n\n**Market Challenges**:\n- Customer bias affecting revenue\n- Difficulty accessing corporate contracts\n- Geographic isolation from markets\n- Limited marketing resources\n- Credit discrimination affecting operations\n\n**Proven Strategies for Growth**\n\nSuccessful cities employ multiple interventions:\n\n**Access to Capital**:\n- Microloan programs ($500-$50,000)\n- Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs)\n- Crowdfunding platforms\n- Guarantee programs reducing lender risk\n- Grant programs for startups\n\n**Business Support Services**:\n- Incubators in minority communities\n- Free legal and accounting assistance\n- Mentorship matching programs\n- Peer learning circles\n- Industry-specific training\n\n**Procurement Opportunities**:\n- Minority business enterprise (MBE) certification\n- Set-asides for city contracts\n- Supplier diversity programs\n- Corporate partnership facilitation\n- Anchor institution commitments\n\n**Real Estate Solutions**:\n- Affordable commercial space programs\n- Pop-up shop opportunities\n- Shared kitchen/maker spaces\n- Home-based business zoning reform\n- Commercial land trusts\n\n**Ecosystem Building**:\n- Minority entrepreneur associations\n- Culturally relevant business education\n- Success story amplification\n- Community investment funds\n- Youth entrepreneurship programs\n\n**Potential Pensacola Initiatives**\n\nSpecific actions that could drive growth:\n\n**City Programs**:\n- Small business grant fund ($1-2M annually)\n- Streamlined licensing for low-impact businesses\n- Mobile business license office in underserved areas\n- Multilingual business support services\n- Vacant storefront activation program\n\n**Partnerships**:\n- UWF entrepreneurship program expansion\n- Chamber of Commerce diversity initiative\n- Bank CRA commitment leverage\n- Corporate mentor programs\n- Faith-based business ministries\n\n**Policy Changes**:\n- Zoning reform allowing more home businesses\n- Reduced licensing fees for microbusinesses\n- Expedited permitting for minority-owned businesses\n- Procurement policy strengthening\n- Commercial affordability requirements\n\n**The 25% Increase Target**\n\nWhy 25% is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Baseline Context** (estimated):\n- Current minority-owned share: 15-25% of new businesses\n- Target increase: 19-31% share\n- Represents 50-100 additional minority-owned businesses annually\n\n**Comparable City Results**:\n- Durham: 30% increase over 3 years\n- Minneapolis: 25% increase over 2 years\n- Portland: 20% increase over 3 years\n- Richmond: 35% increase over 4 years\n\nSuccess requires sustained, multi-faceted effort.\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nAchieving 25% increase would generate:\n\n**Direct Benefits**:\n- 50-100 new minority-owned businesses annually\n- 200-500 new jobs created\n- $10-25M in new economic activity\n- $1-3M in additional tax revenue\n\n**Indirect Benefits**:\n- Wealth building in minority communities\n- Role models for youth\n- Reduced unemployment\n- Neighborhood revitalization\n- Economic resilience through diversity\n\n**Multiplier Effects**:\n- Minority businesses hire more minority employees\n- Profits circulate within communities\n- Success breeds more entrepreneurship\n- Cultural economy strengthens\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nEarly signs of progress:\n- Minority business support programs launched\n- Capital access initiatives funded\n- Business license applications increasing\n- Minority chamber membership growing\n- Success stories gaining visibility\n- Corporate commitments announced\n\n**Measurement Considerations**\n\nTracking requirements:\n- Self-identification of minority status\n- Consistent data collection methods\n- Quarterly reporting recommended\n- Demographic category definitions\n- Verification processes\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving target:\n- Economic downturn reducing all startups\n- Gentrification displacing minority residents\n- Limited program funding\n- Political resistance to targeted programs\n- Data collection gaps\n- Definition disputes\n\n**The Equity Imperative**\n\nBusiness ownership equity matters because:\n- Wealth gaps won't close without ownership\n- Diverse economies are stronger economies\n- Innovation comes from diverse perspectives\n- Democratic capitalism requires broad participation\n- Communities thrive with local ownership\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nGulf Coast minority entrepreneurship:\n- New Orleans: Strong Black business tradition\n- Birmingham: Growing minority tech sector\n- Atlanta: Black entrepreneurship capital\n- Miami: Hispanic business hub\n\nPensacola can learn from and compete with these markets." }, { "id": 39264, "title": "Will annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) traffic incidents on two priority Pensacola corridors fall by at least 30% by December 31, 2028?", "short_title": "30% Traffic KSI Reduction by 2028?", "url_title": "30% Traffic KSI Reduction by 2028?", "slug": "30-traffic-ksi-reduction-by-2028", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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injured) traffic incidents on two priority Pensacola corridors fall by at least 30% by December 31, 2028?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:30.409272Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-31T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Traffic violence claims lives and devastates families across Pensacola every year. The city's wide, high-speed arterials designed for vehicle throughput have become killing fields for pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists alike. Achieving a 30% reduction in killed or seriously injured (KSI) incidents on priority corridors would save lives, reduce suffering, and demonstrate that Vision Zero - the goal of eliminating traffic deaths - is achievable.\n\n**The Current Crisis**\n\nPensacola's traffic safety statistics reveal an urgent problem:\n- Traffic fatalities increased 45% from 2018-2023\n- Pedestrian deaths at 20-year high\n- Serious injuries creating lifelong disabilities\n- Disproportionate impact on low-income communities\n- Children and elderly most vulnerable\n\nKey corridors account for majority of KSI incidents despite representing small fraction of road network.\n\n**Understanding KSI Metrics**\n\nKSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) includes:\n- **Killed**: Death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Injuries requiring hospitalization, involving:\n - Broken/fractured bones\n - Severe lacerations\n - Internal injuries\n - Traumatic brain injuries\n - Spinal cord damage\n\nThree-year rolling averages smooth annual variations while showing trends.\n\n**Priority Corridors Likely Candidates**\n\nBased on crash data, priority corridors likely include:\n\n**Davis Highway (US 90)**:\n- Highest crash frequency in city\n- Multiple pedestrian fatalities\n- Wide lanes encouraging speeding\n- Limited safe crossings\n- Adjacent to low-income neighborhoods\n\n**Cervantes Street (US 90 Alt)**:\n- Major east-west arterial\n- History of severe crashes\n- Mix of commercial and residential\n- High traffic volumes\n- Multiple conflict points\n\n**Mobile Highway (US 90)**:\n- Western gateway to city\n- High-speed traffic entering urban area\n- Limited pedestrian infrastructure\n- Commercial corridor with many driveways\n\n**Ninth Avenue**:\n- Connects multiple neighborhoods\n- School zones with child safety concerns\n- Narrow with poor visibility\n- Speeding issues\n\n**Navy Boulevard**:\n- Major north-south route\n- High traffic volumes\n- Wide crossing distances\n- Adjacent to shopping centers\n\n**Proven Safety Interventions**\n\nEvidence-based strategies that reduce KSI:\n\n**Engineering Solutions** (most effective):\n- Road diets: 19-47% crash reduction\n- Protected bike lanes: 44% injury reduction\n- Raised crosswalks: 45% speed reduction\n- Roundabouts: 72% injury crash reduction\n- Median islands: 56% pedestrian crash reduction\n- Leading pedestrian intervals: 60% pedestrian crash reduction\n\n**Speed Management**:\n- Speed limit reductions: 20-30% KSI reduction\n- Automated enforcement: 20-25% reduction\n- Traffic calming: 40% speed reduction\n- Variable speed warnings: 5-10% reduction\n\n**Systemic Approaches**:\n- Complete Streets policies\n- Safe Systems approach\n- High-injury network focus\n- Quick-build demonstrations\n- Tactical urbanism pilots\n\n**The 30% Reduction Target**\n\nAchieving 30% KSI reduction is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Comparable Cities' Success**:\n- Jersey City: 35% reduction in 3 years\n- San Francisco: 41% reduction in 5 years\n- Seattle: 30% reduction in 4 years\n- Minneapolis: 40% reduction in 3 years\n\n**Key Success Factors**:\n- Political commitment to Vision Zero\n- Dedicated funding for safety improvements\n- Quick-build approach for rapid implementation\n- Data-driven corridor selection\n- Community engagement and support\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting safety improvements:\n- **Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A)**: $5B over 5 years\n- **Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)**: Formula funding\n- **RAISE Grants**: Major corridor reconstructions\n- **Carbon Reduction Program**: Mode shift projects\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida DOT safety funds\n- Local option gas tax\n- Red light camera revenues\n- General fund allocations\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical safety improvement progression:\n- **Year 1 (2025)**: Planning, design, quick-build pilots\n- **Year 2 (2026)**: Major construction, signal upgrades\n- **Year 3 (2027)**: Additional improvements, refinements\n- **Year 4 (2028)**: Full implementation, measurement\n\nQuick-build advantage allows testing and rapid deployment.\n\n**Community Benefits Beyond Safety**\n\nSafety improvements deliver multiple benefits:\n\n**Economic**:\n- Reduced crash costs ($500K+ per fatality)\n- Lower insurance rates\n- Increased property values\n- Business district vitality\n\n**Health**:\n- Increased walking and cycling\n- Reduced air pollution\n- Lower stress levels\n- Improved mental health\n\n**Equity**:\n- Safe access for non-drivers\n- Environmental justice\n- Reduced burden on families\n- Mobility independence\n\n**Environmental**:\n- Reduced vehicle miles traveled\n- Lower emissions\n- Less noise pollution\n- Urban heat mitigation\n\n**Measuring Success**\n\nData collection requirements:\n- Consistent crash reporting\n- Hospital injury data integration\n- Before/after studies\n- Control corridor comparisons\n- Regular public reporting\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving 30% reduction:\n- State DOT control of some corridors\n- Political resistance to lane reductions\n- Business concerns about parking\n- Driver pushback on speed enforcement\n- Funding gaps for comprehensive improvements\n- Construction delays\n\n**The Moral Imperative**\n\nEvery KSI represents:\n- Preventable tragedy\n- Family devastation\n- Community trauma\n- Economic loss\n- Moral failure\n\nNo traffic death is acceptable when proven solutions exist.\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns of progress toward 30% reduction:\n- Vision Zero adoption by city\n- Safety improvements beginning construction\n- Speed limit reductions implemented\n- Federal grant awards announced\n- Community support mobilizing\n- Quick-build projects deployed", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the annual average KSI (killed or seriously injured) incidents on two designated priority corridors in Pensacola falls by at least 30% comparing the 2028 three-year average to the 2024-2026 baseline.\n\n**KSI Definition**:\n- **Killed**: Fatal injuries resulting in death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Incapacitating injuries requiring hospitalization (not just ER treatment)\n\n**Calculation Method**:\n1. Baseline: Average annual KSI for 2024-2026 on the two corridors\n2. Target Period: Average annual KSI for 2026-2028 on the same corridors\n3. Reduction: ((Baseline - Target) / Baseline) Ă 100 â„ 30%\n\n**Priority Corridors**:\n- Must be designated by City of Pensacola by December 31, 2025\n- If not designated, use the two corridors with highest 2024 KSI counts\n- Corridors must be within city limits\n- Minimum 1 mile length each\n\n**Data Requirements**:\n- Official law enforcement crash statistics\n- Must use consistent reporting standards throughout period\n- Include all crashes on corridor regardless of fault\n- Pedestrian, bicycle, and vehicle incidents all count\n\n**Three-Year Rolling Average Example**:\n- 2024-2026 baseline: (2024 KSI + 2025 KSI + 2026 KSI) / 3\n- 2026-2028 target: (2026 KSI + 2027 KSI + 2028 KSI) / 3\n- Note: 2026 counts in both averages\n\n**Data Sources** (in order of preference):\n1. Pensacola Police Department official statistics\n2. Florida Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles crash database\n3. City of Pensacola Vision Zero or safety reports\n4. Escambia County Sheriff's Office (if applicable)\n5. FDOT District 3 crash data\n\n**Geographic Boundaries**:\n- Full corridor length within city limits\n- Intersections at both ends included\n- Side street crashes within 250 feet of corridor count\n\n**What Counts as \"Seriously Injured\"**:\n- Incapacitating injury per police report\n- Hospital admission (not just ER visit)\n- Injuries preventing normal activities\n- Based on officer assessment at scene\n\n**Resolution Requirements**:\n- Both corridors must achieve 30% reduction individually\n- If one achieves 30% and other doesn't: Resolves NO\n- Combined average not sufficient - each must meet target\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If city limits change: Use 2024 boundaries\n- If corridor is reconstructed/closed: Use available data\n- If reporting standards change: Attempt consistent comparison\n- Missing data: Interpolate if <3 months, otherwise AMBIGUOUS\n- If no corridors designated and no clear top 2: AMBIGUOUS", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Traffic violence claims lives and devastates families across Pensacola every year. The city's wide, high-speed arterials designed for vehicle throughput have become killing fields for pedestrians, cyclists, and motorists alike. Achieving a 30% reduction in killed or seriously injured (KSI) incidents on priority corridors would save lives, reduce suffering, and demonstrate that Vision Zero - the goal of eliminating traffic deaths - is achievable.\n\n**The Current Crisis**\n\nPensacola's traffic safety statistics reveal an urgent problem:\n- Traffic fatalities increased 45% from 2018-2023\n- Pedestrian deaths at 20-year high\n- Serious injuries creating lifelong disabilities\n- Disproportionate impact on low-income communities\n- Children and elderly most vulnerable\n\nKey corridors account for majority of KSI incidents despite representing small fraction of road network.\n\n**Understanding KSI Metrics**\n\nKSI (Killed or Seriously Injured) includes:\n- **Killed**: Death within 30 days of crash\n- **Seriously Injured**: Injuries requiring hospitalization, involving:\n - Broken/fractured bones\n - Severe lacerations\n - Internal injuries\n - Traumatic brain injuries\n - Spinal cord damage\n\nThree-year rolling averages smooth annual variations while showing trends.\n\n**Priority Corridors Likely Candidates**\n\nBased on crash data, priority corridors likely include:\n\n**Davis Highway (US 90)**:\n- Highest crash frequency in city\n- Multiple pedestrian fatalities\n- Wide lanes encouraging speeding\n- Limited safe crossings\n- Adjacent to low-income neighborhoods\n\n**Cervantes Street (US 90 Alt)**:\n- Major east-west arterial\n- History of severe crashes\n- Mix of commercial and residential\n- High traffic volumes\n- Multiple conflict points\n\n**Mobile Highway (US 90)**:\n- Western gateway to city\n- High-speed traffic entering urban area\n- Limited pedestrian infrastructure\n- Commercial corridor with many driveways\n\n**Ninth Avenue**:\n- Connects multiple neighborhoods\n- School zones with child safety concerns\n- Narrow with poor visibility\n- Speeding issues\n\n**Navy Boulevard**:\n- Major north-south route\n- High traffic volumes\n- Wide crossing distances\n- Adjacent to shopping centers\n\n**Proven Safety Interventions**\n\nEvidence-based strategies that reduce KSI:\n\n**Engineering Solutions** (most effective):\n- Road diets: 19-47% crash reduction\n- Protected bike lanes: 44% injury reduction\n- Raised crosswalks: 45% speed reduction\n- Roundabouts: 72% injury crash reduction\n- Median islands: 56% pedestrian crash reduction\n- Leading pedestrian intervals: 60% pedestrian crash reduction\n\n**Speed Management**:\n- Speed limit reductions: 20-30% KSI reduction\n- Automated enforcement: 20-25% reduction\n- Traffic calming: 40% speed reduction\n- Variable speed warnings: 5-10% reduction\n\n**Systemic Approaches**:\n- Complete Streets policies\n- Safe Systems approach\n- High-injury network focus\n- Quick-build demonstrations\n- Tactical urbanism pilots\n\n**The 30% Reduction Target**\n\nAchieving 30% KSI reduction is ambitious but achievable:\n\n**Comparable Cities' Success**:\n- Jersey City: 35% reduction in 3 years\n- San Francisco: 41% reduction in 5 years\n- Seattle: 30% reduction in 4 years\n- Minneapolis: 40% reduction in 3 years\n\n**Key Success Factors**:\n- Political commitment to Vision Zero\n- Dedicated funding for safety improvements\n- Quick-build approach for rapid implementation\n- Data-driven corridor selection\n- Community engagement and support\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting safety improvements:\n- **Safe Streets and Roads for All (SS4A)**: $5B over 5 years\n- **Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)**: Formula funding\n- **RAISE Grants**: Major corridor reconstructions\n- **Carbon Reduction Program**: Mode shift projects\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida DOT safety funds\n- Local option gas tax\n- Red light camera revenues\n- General fund allocations\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical safety improvement progression:\n- **Year 1 (2025)**: Planning, design, quick-build pilots\n- **Year 2 (2026)**: Major construction, signal upgrades\n- **Year 3 (2027)**: Additional improvements, refinements\n- **Year 4 (2028)**: Full implementation, measurement\n\nQuick-build advantage allows testing and rapid deployment.\n\n**Community Benefits Beyond Safety**\n\nSafety improvements deliver multiple benefits:\n\n**Economic**:\n- Reduced crash costs ($500K+ per fatality)\n- Lower insurance rates\n- Increased property values\n- Business district vitality\n\n**Health**:\n- Increased walking and cycling\n- Reduced air pollution\n- Lower stress levels\n- Improved mental health\n\n**Equity**:\n- Safe access for non-drivers\n- Environmental justice\n- Reduced burden on families\n- Mobility independence\n\n**Environmental**:\n- Reduced vehicle miles traveled\n- Lower emissions\n- Less noise pollution\n- Urban heat mitigation\n\n**Measuring Success**\n\nData collection requirements:\n- Consistent crash reporting\n- Hospital injury data integration\n- Before/after studies\n- Control corridor comparisons\n- Regular public reporting\n\n**Potential Challenges**\n\nObstacles to achieving 30% reduction:\n- State DOT control of some corridors\n- Political resistance to lane reductions\n- Business concerns about parking\n- Driver pushback on speed enforcement\n- Funding gaps for comprehensive improvements\n- Construction delays\n\n**The Moral Imperative**\n\nEvery KSI represents:\n- Preventable tragedy\n- Family devastation\n- Community trauma\n- Economic loss\n- Moral failure\n\nNo traffic death is acceptable when proven solutions exist.\n\n**Leading Indicators**\n\nSigns of progress toward 30% reduction:\n- Vision Zero adoption by city\n- Safety improvements beginning construction\n- Speed limit reductions implemented\n- Federal grant awards announced\n- Community support mobilizing\n- Quick-build projects deployed" }, { "id": 39263, "title": "Will Bruce Beach's next phase of redevelopment be completed and open to the public by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Bruce Beach Phase Complete by 2027?", "url_title": "Bruce Beach Phase Complete by 2027?", "slug": "bruce-beach-phase-complete-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:28.163557Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:24.141401Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:24.118714Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "meta_description": 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"exclude_and_hide" } }, "question": { "id": 38605, "title": "Will Bruce Beach's next phase of redevelopment be completed and open to the public by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:58:28.164008Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bruce Beach stands as one of Pensacola's most significant waterfront redevelopment opportunities. This historically important site, with deep cultural significance to the African American community, is undergoing a multi-phase transformation that balances recreation, resilience, and remembrance. The next phase represents a critical test of the city's ability to deliver on promises to underserved communities while creating world-class public space.\n\n**Historical Significance**\n\nBruce Beach holds unique importance:\n- Served as the only beach accessible to Black residents during segregation\n- Named after Guy Bruce, who fought for beach access\n- Site of community gatherings and celebrations for decades\n- Symbol of both segregation's injustices and community resilience\n- Living memory for many longtime residents\n\nThe redevelopment must honor this history while creating inclusive future spaces.\n\n**Current Conditions and Progress**\n\nPhase 1 achievements:\n- Initial site stabilization and cleanup\n- Basic parking and access improvements\n- Historical markers and interpretive elements\n- Community engagement process established\n\nRemaining challenges:\n- Significant erosion and shoreline degradation\n- Limited amenities and accessibility\n- Stormwater management issues\n- Lack of programming and activation\n- Deferred maintenance from decades of underinvestment\n\n**Next Phase Vision**\n\nThe upcoming phase is expected to include:\n\n**Recreation Amenities**:\n- Playground equipment for various age groups\n- Picnic pavilions and gathering spaces\n- Walking/biking trails connecting to larger network\n- Kayak/canoe launch improvements\n- Fishing pier rehabilitation or replacement\n- Exercise stations and outdoor fitness areas\n\n**Resilience Infrastructure**:\n- Living shoreline installation\n- Stormwater management systems\n- Elevated structures for flood resilience\n- Native landscaping and habitat restoration\n- Erosion control measures\n- Green infrastructure elements\n\n**Cultural Elements**:\n- Enhanced historical interpretation\n- Public art celebrating community heritage\n- Performance space for events\n- Memorial elements honoring community leaders\n- Educational signage about ecology and history\n\n**Support Facilities**:\n- Restroom facilities meeting ADA standards\n- Improved parking with pervious surfaces\n- Lighting for safety and extended use\n- Wayfinding and entry features\n- Maintenance and storage buildings\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources are aligning:\n\n**Federal**:\n- NOAA Coastal Resilience Grants\n- EPA Brownfields funding\n- Land and Water Conservation Fund\n- Transportation Alternatives Program\n\n**State**:\n- Florida Recreation Development Assistance Program\n- Resilient Florida grants\n- Florida Communities Trust\n\n**Local**:\n- RESTORE Act funds from BP settlement\n- Community Redevelopment Area funds\n- General obligation bonds\n- Tourism Development Tax revenue\n\n**Regional**:\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funding\n- Private foundation grants\n- Corporate sponsorships\n\nThe project has strong funding momentum with multiple applications pending.\n\n**Community Engagement Critical**\n\nSuccess requires authentic community involvement:\n- Design input from longtime residents\n- Programming reflecting community traditions\n- Local hiring for construction and operations\n- Ongoing advisory committee with community representation\n- Regular public meetings and updates\n\nPast broken promises make trust-building essential.\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Gulf Coast beach redevelopments:\n- **Mobile**: $30M Africatown Heritage House and waterfront\n- **Biloxi**: East Beach redevelopment post-Katrina\n- **St. Petersburg**: $6M South St. Pete waterfront improvements\n- **Panama City**: $15M marina and waterfront park\n\nBruce Beach must compete while maintaining authentic character.\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical waterfront project phases:\n- Design and permitting: 12-18 months\n- Bidding and procurement: 3-6 months\n- Construction: 18-24 months\n- Total: 33-48 months\n\nFor completion by December 2027:\n- Design must be underway now\n- Construction start needed by early 2026\n- Aggressive schedule but achievable\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nCompleted redevelopment would generate:\n- Construction jobs: 50-100 positions\n- Permanent jobs: 5-10 for maintenance/programming\n- Tourism impact: $2-5M annually\n- Property value increases: 10-15% nearby\n- Small business opportunities: vendors, rentals, tours\n\n**Environmental Considerations**\n\nThe site requires careful environmental management:\n- Sea turtle nesting habitat protection\n- Seagrass bed preservation\n- Water quality improvements\n- Wildlife corridor maintenance\n- Climate adaptation for 50+ year lifespan\n\n**Success Metrics**\n\nA successful next phase would deliver:\n- Increased visitation from all communities\n- Regular programming and events\n- Improved water quality measures\n- Reduced erosion and flooding\n- National recognition as inclusive design model\n- Community pride and ownership\n\n**Potential Obstacles**\n\nChallenges that could delay completion:\n- Permitting delays for waterfront work\n- Construction cost escalation\n- Contractor availability in hot market\n- Storm damage during construction\n- Community disagreement on design elements\n- Environmental mitigation requirements\n\n**Why This Matters**\n\nBruce Beach redevelopment represents:\n- Reparative justice through public investment\n- Model for equitable development\n- Climate resilience demonstration\n- Community healing and celebration space\n- Economic opportunity in underserved area\n\nThe December 2027 deadline tests whether Pensacola can deliver transformative projects in historically marginalized communities.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if the next phase of Bruce Beach redevelopment is completed and open to public use by December 31, 2027.\n\n**\"Next Phase\" Definition**:\nThe next major construction phase as defined in official city plans, following any work completed before January 1, 2025. Must include at least $1 million in improvements.\n\n**\"Completed\" Requires** (must meet 4 of 6):\n1. Playground or recreation equipment installed\n2. Trails or pathways constructed\n3. Stormwater/resilience infrastructure operational\n4. Pavilions or structures built\n5. Shoreline improvements finished\n6. Parking/access improvements done\n\n**\"Open to the Public\"**:\n- Physical barriers removed\n- Official opening announcement or ceremony\n- Regular public access permitted\n- Amenities available for use\n- No construction fencing restricting access\n\n**What Counts as Phase Completion**:\n- All major elements in phase plan constructed\n- City acceptance of contractor work\n- Certificate of completion or similar documentation\n- Ribbon cutting or official opening event\n- Public use commenced\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Partial completion with major elements unfinished\n- Soft opening with construction ongoing\n- Temporary opening for events only\n- Plans or renderings without construction\n- Minor maintenance or repairs\n- Work outside defined phase boundaries\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City of Pensacola official announcements\n- Parks & Recreation Department confirmation\n- Local news coverage of opening\n- City Council minutes accepting completion\n- Photographic evidence of completed amenities\n- Public works or contractor completion certificates\n\n**Geographic Boundary**:\n- Must be within Bruce Beach park boundaries\n- Connected amenities on adjacent property count if part of phase plan\n\n**Timing Clarification**:\n- Must be completed AND open by 11:59 PM CST December 31, 2027\n- If opens then closes for repairs: Still counts as YES\n- If substantially complete but minor items remain: Counts as YES if open\n\n**Edge Cases**:\n- If phase is split into sub-phases: First sub-phase completion counts\n- Storm damage after opening: Still resolves YES\n- If site is open but some amenities restricted: YES if majority accessible\n- Multiple phases ongoing: Count the first to complete", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39263, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bruce Beach stands as one of Pensacola's most significant waterfront redevelopment opportunities. This historically important site, with deep cultural significance to the African American community, is undergoing a multi-phase transformation that balances recreation, resilience, and remembrance. The next phase represents a critical test of the city's ability to deliver on promises to underserved communities while creating world-class public space.\n\n**Historical Significance**\n\nBruce Beach holds unique importance:\n- Served as the only beach accessible to Black residents during segregation\n- Named after Guy Bruce, who fought for beach access\n- Site of community gatherings and celebrations for decades\n- Symbol of both segregation's injustices and community resilience\n- Living memory for many longtime residents\n\nThe redevelopment must honor this history while creating inclusive future spaces.\n\n**Current Conditions and Progress**\n\nPhase 1 achievements:\n- Initial site stabilization and cleanup\n- Basic parking and access improvements\n- Historical markers and interpretive elements\n- Community engagement process established\n\nRemaining challenges:\n- Significant erosion and shoreline degradation\n- Limited amenities and accessibility\n- Stormwater management issues\n- Lack of programming and activation\n- Deferred maintenance from decades of underinvestment\n\n**Next Phase Vision**\n\nThe upcoming phase is expected to include:\n\n**Recreation Amenities**:\n- Playground equipment for various age groups\n- Picnic pavilions and gathering spaces\n- Walking/biking trails connecting to larger network\n- Kayak/canoe launch improvements\n- Fishing pier rehabilitation or replacement\n- Exercise stations and outdoor fitness areas\n\n**Resilience Infrastructure**:\n- Living shoreline installation\n- Stormwater management systems\n- Elevated structures for flood resilience\n- Native landscaping and habitat restoration\n- Erosion control measures\n- Green infrastructure elements\n\n**Cultural Elements**:\n- Enhanced historical interpretation\n- Public art celebrating community heritage\n- Performance space for events\n- Memorial elements honoring community leaders\n- Educational signage about ecology and history\n\n**Support Facilities**:\n- Restroom facilities meeting ADA standards\n- Improved parking with pervious surfaces\n- Lighting for safety and extended use\n- Wayfinding and entry features\n- Maintenance and storage buildings\n\n**Funding Landscape**\n\nMultiple funding sources are aligning:\n\n**Federal**:\n- NOAA Coastal Resilience Grants\n- EPA Brownfields funding\n- Land and Water Conservation Fund\n- Transportation Alternatives Program\n\n**State**:\n- Florida Recreation Development Assistance Program\n- Resilient Florida grants\n- Florida Communities Trust\n\n**Local**:\n- RESTORE Act funds from BP settlement\n- Community Redevelopment Area funds\n- General obligation bonds\n- Tourism Development Tax revenue\n\n**Regional**:\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funding\n- Private foundation grants\n- Corporate sponsorships\n\nThe project has strong funding momentum with multiple applications pending.\n\n**Community Engagement Critical**\n\nSuccess requires authentic community involvement:\n- Design input from longtime residents\n- Programming reflecting community traditions\n- Local hiring for construction and operations\n- Ongoing advisory committee with community representation\n- Regular public meetings and updates\n\nPast broken promises make trust-building essential.\n\n**Regional Context**\n\nOther Gulf Coast beach redevelopments:\n- **Mobile**: $30M Africatown Heritage House and waterfront\n- **Biloxi**: East Beach redevelopment post-Katrina\n- **St. Petersburg**: $6M South St. Pete waterfront improvements\n- **Panama City**: $15M marina and waterfront park\n\nBruce Beach must compete while maintaining authentic character.\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical waterfront project phases:\n- Design and permitting: 12-18 months\n- Bidding and procurement: 3-6 months\n- Construction: 18-24 months\n- Total: 33-48 months\n\nFor completion by December 2027:\n- Design must be underway now\n- Construction start needed by early 2026\n- Aggressive schedule but achievable\n\n**Economic Impact**\n\nCompleted redevelopment would generate:\n- Construction jobs: 50-100 positions\n- Permanent jobs: 5-10 for maintenance/programming\n- Tourism impact: $2-5M annually\n- Property value increases: 10-15% nearby\n- Small business opportunities: vendors, rentals, tours\n\n**Environmental Considerations**\n\nThe site requires careful environmental management:\n- Sea turtle nesting habitat protection\n- Seagrass bed preservation\n- Water quality improvements\n- Wildlife corridor maintenance\n- Climate adaptation for 50+ year lifespan\n\n**Success Metrics**\n\nA successful next phase would deliver:\n- Increased visitation from all communities\n- Regular programming and events\n- Improved water quality measures\n- Reduced erosion and flooding\n- National recognition as inclusive design model\n- Community pride and ownership\n\n**Potential Obstacles**\n\nChallenges that could delay completion:\n- Permitting delays for waterfront work\n- Construction cost escalation\n- Contractor availability in hot market\n- Storm damage during construction\n- Community disagreement on design elements\n- Environmental mitigation requirements\n\n**Why This Matters**\n\nBruce Beach redevelopment represents:\n- Reparative justice through public investment\n- Model for equitable development\n- Climate resilience demonstration\n- Community healing and celebration space\n- Economic opportunity in underserved area\n\nThe December 2027 deadline tests whether Pensacola can deliver transformative projects in historically marginalized communities." }, { "id": 39262, "title": "Will at least three new neighborhood-scale corner stores or cafĂ©s open, directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning, in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Three Zoning-Enabled Stores by 2027?", "url_title": "Three Zoning-Enabled Stores by 2027?", "slug": "three-zoning-enabled-stores-by-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:48.923564Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:14.308352Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T03:05:14.286736Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32817, "type": "question_series", "name": "City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest", "slug": "pcola", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Beach-Ball-Sunset.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-08-12T06:21:17Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-28T06:21:06Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-12T06:23:04.368264Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-18T17:07:22.113528Z", "score_type": 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updated mixed-use or commercial zoning, in Pensacola by December 31, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T02:51:48.923983Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T03:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-15T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pensacola's neighborhoods once thrived with corner stores, local cafĂ©s, and small businesses within walking distance of homes. But decades of restrictive zoning segregated commercial and residential uses, leaving many neighborhoods as commercial deserts. Now, a movement toward mixed-use zoning could restore the walkable, vibrant neighborhoods that build community and reduce car dependence.\n\n**The Death and Life of Neighborhood Commerce**\n\nHistorical Pensacola featured:\n- Corner groceries serving each neighborhood\n- Local cafĂ©s as community gathering spots\n- Small businesses integrated into residential areas\n- Walkable access to daily needs\n\nPost-1950s zoning changed everything:\n- Strict separation of uses\n- Minimum parking requirements\n- Setback requirements hostile to pedestrians\n- Commercial uses pushed to highways\n- Neighborhoods became purely residential\n\nThe result: Car dependence, social isolation, and economic disinvestment in neighborhoods.\n\n**The Mixed-Use Renaissance**\n\nCities nationwide are updating zoning to allow:\n- Ground-floor retail in residential buildings\n- Corner stores in neighborhoods\n- Live-work spaces\n- Small cafĂ©s and restaurants\n- Professional offices in converted homes\n- Accessory commercial units\n\nThis shift recognizes that mixing compatible uses creates:\n- Walkable neighborhoods\n- Economic opportunity\n- Social interaction\n- Reduced vehicle trips\n- Increased property values\n- Entrepreneurship opportunities\n\n**What Zoning Changes Enable**\n\n**Traditional Neighborhood Commercial**:\n- Corner stores (under 3,000 sq ft)\n- Neighborhood cafĂ©s (under 30 seats)\n- Bakeries and coffee shops\n- Small professional offices\n- Art galleries and studios\n- Personal services (salon, tailor)\n\n**Form-Based Codes**:\n- Focus on building form, not use\n- Allow mix of uses by right\n- Reduce parking requirements\n- Enable adaptive reuse\n- Streamline approvals\n\n**Overlay Districts**:\n- Add commercial allowances to residential zones\n- Target specific corridors or nodes\n- Preserve neighborhood character\n- Pilot programs for testing\n\n**Why Three New Businesses Matter**\n\nThree successful openings would:\n- Demonstrate market demand\n- Build political support for expansion\n- Create models for other entrepreneurs\n- Generate data on impacts\n- Show zoning reform works\n\nEach business could:\n- Serve 500-1,000 nearby households\n- Create 5-10 local jobs\n- Generate $300,000-$1,000,000 annual revenue\n- Reduce 100,000+ vehicle trips annually\n- Become community gathering space\n\n**Potential Locations and Neighborhoods**\n\nAreas ripe for neighborhood commercial:\n- **East Hill**: Historic neighborhood seeking walkable amenities\n- **North Hill**: Density to support neighborhood businesses\n- **East Pensacola Heights**: Corridors suitable for conversion\n- **Warrington**: Revitalization efforts underway\n- **Belmont-DeVilliers**: Historic commercial patterns\n- **Downtown adjacent areas**: Expanding downtown's walkable success\n\n**The Entrepreneurs Waiting**\n\nZoning reform would unlock opportunities for:\n- **Food entrepreneurs**: Home bakers, food trucks seeking permanent location\n- **Remote workers**: Seeking neighborhood co-working/cafĂ©\n- **Retirees**: Opening long-dreamed small business\n- **Young professionals**: Creating gathering spaces\n- **Immigrant entrepreneurs**: Traditional neighborhood businesses\n\n**Barriers Beyond Zoning**\n\nEven with zoning changes, challenges remain:\n- **Financing**: Banks unfamiliar with mixed-use\n- **Building codes**: Expensive upgrades for change of use\n- **Parking**: Neighbors' concerns despite reduced need\n- **Market uncertainty**: Unproven demand in some areas\n- **Construction costs**: Renovation expenses\n\n**Success Factors**\n\nCities successfully enabling neighborhood commercial:\n- **Streamlined permitting**: Fast, predictable approvals\n- **Financial incentives**: Grants, low-interest loans\n- **Technical assistance**: Help navigating regulations\n- **Community engagement**: Building neighbor support\n- **Pilot programs**: Testing before permanent changes\n- **Marketing**: Promoting opportunities to entrepreneurs\n\n**Case Studies from Other Cities**\n\n**Minneapolis**: Eliminated single-family zoning, allowing neighborhood commercial\n- Result: 50+ new neighborhood businesses in 3 years\n\n**Portland**: Neighborhood commercial zones throughout city\n- Result: Walkable neighborhoods with higher property values\n\n**Charlotte**: Unified Development Ordinance allowing mixed-use\n- Result: Explosion of neighborhood cafĂ©s and stores\n\n**The Economic Impact**\n\nNeighborhood commercial generates:\n- **Jobs**: 5-10 per business, often for local residents\n- **Tax revenue**: Sales tax, property tax increases\n- **Property values**: 10-20% premium for walkable neighborhoods\n- **Multiplier effects**: Local spending circulates\n- **Entrepreneurship**: Lower barriers to entry\n\n**Environmental Benefits**\n\nReducing car trips through walkable commerce:\n- Decreases emissions\n- Reduces parking demand\n- Lessens traffic congestion\n- Improves air quality\n- Encourages active transportation\n\n**Social Benefits**\n\nNeighborhood gathering spaces:\n- Build social capital\n- Reduce isolation\n- Create \"third places\" beyond home and work\n- Foster community identity\n- Enable aging in place\n\n**Timeline for Implementation**\n\nTypical progression:\n1. **Zoning amendments adopted**: 3-6 months\n2. **First applications**: 2-4 months after adoption\n3. **Permitting and construction**: 4-8 months\n4. **Business opening**: 12-18 months from zoning change\n\nFor three businesses by December 2027:\n- Zoning changes needed by: Mid-2026\n- First permits by: Late 2026\n- Construction through: 2027\n- Openings throughout: 2027", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if at least three new neighborhood-scale corner stores or cafĂ©s open in Pensacola by December 31, 2027, where the openings were directly enabled by updated mixed-use or commercial zoning.\n\n**\"Directly Enabled by Updated Zoning\"** means:\n- Location was NOT permitted for commercial use before January 1, 2025\n- Zoning change after January 1, 2025 allowed the commercial use\n- Business opened because of this zoning change\n\n**Qualifying Zoning Changes**:\n- Rezoning from residential to mixed-use\n- New overlay districts allowing commercial\n- Form-based codes permitting mixed uses\n- Text amendments adding commercial uses\n- Variance or special exception based on policy change\n\n**\"Neighborhood-Scale Corner Store or CafĂ©\"** Definition:\n- **Size**: Under 5,000 square feet\n- **Type**: Grocery/convenience store, cafĂ©, coffee shop, bakery, deli\n- **Location**: Within or adjacent to primarily residential area\n- **Pedestrian-oriented**: Accessible by walking from nearby homes\n\n**\"New\" Business Requirements**:\n- Did not exist at that location before\n- Not a relocation of existing business\n- Not a rebranding of existing business\n- Opens after the zoning change\n\n**Evidence of Zoning Enablement**:\n- Business permit showing zoning classification\n- City planning documents showing zoning change\n- News coverage linking opening to zoning reform\n- Business owner statement about zoning enabling opening\n- City official confirmation of connection\n\n**What COUNTS**:\n- Coffee shop in former residential-only zone\n- Corner store in new mixed-use district\n- CafĂ© enabled by form-based code\n- Bakery in adaptive reuse building\n- Deli opened through overlay district\n\n**What Does NOT Count**:\n- Businesses in already commercial zones\n- Food trucks or mobile vendors\n- Home-based businesses without storefront\n- Businesses over 5,000 sq ft\n- Bars or primarily alcohol establishments\n- Chain stores (must be independent/franchise)\n- Businesses outside city limits\n\n**Geographic Requirement**:\n- Must be within Pensacola city limits\n- Must serve primarily residential neighborhood\n\n**Documentation Needed**:\n- Business license showing opening date\n- Zoning records showing classification change\n- Evidence connecting opening to zoning change\n\n**Timeline Clarification**:\n- Zoning change must occur after January 1, 2025\n- Business must open by December 31, 2027\n- Must establish causal link between zoning and opening", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pensacola's neighborhoods once thrived with corner stores, local cafĂ©s, and small businesses within walking distance of homes. But decades of restrictive zoning segregated commercial and residential uses, leaving many neighborhoods as commercial deserts. Now, a movement toward mixed-use zoning could restore the walkable, vibrant neighborhoods that build community and reduce car dependence.\n\n**The Death and Life of Neighborhood Commerce**\n\nHistorical Pensacola featured:\n- Corner groceries serving each neighborhood\n- Local cafĂ©s as community gathering spots\n- Small businesses integrated into residential areas\n- Walkable access to daily needs\n\nPost-1950s zoning changed everything:\n- Strict separation of uses\n- Minimum parking requirements\n- Setback requirements hostile to pedestrians\n- Commercial uses pushed to highways\n- Neighborhoods became purely residential\n\nThe result: Car dependence, social isolation, and economic disinvestment in neighborhoods.\n\n**The Mixed-Use Renaissance**\n\nCities nationwide are updating zoning to allow:\n- Ground-floor retail in residential buildings\n- Corner stores in neighborhoods\n- Live-work spaces\n- Small cafĂ©s and restaurants\n- Professional offices in converted homes\n- Accessory commercial units\n\nThis shift recognizes that mixing compatible uses creates:\n- Walkable neighborhoods\n- Economic opportunity\n- Social interaction\n- Reduced vehicle trips\n- Increased property values\n- Entrepreneurship opportunities\n\n**What Zoning Changes Enable**\n\n**Traditional Neighborhood Commercial**:\n- Corner stores (under 3,000 sq ft)\n- Neighborhood cafĂ©s (under 30 seats)\n- Bakeries and coffee shops\n- Small professional offices\n- Art galleries and studios\n- Personal services (salon, tailor)\n\n**Form-Based Codes**:\n- Focus on building form, not use\n- Allow mix of uses by right\n- Reduce parking requirements\n- Enable adaptive reuse\n- Streamline approvals\n\n**Overlay Districts**:\n- Add commercial allowances to residential zones\n- Target specific corridors or nodes\n- Preserve neighborhood character\n- Pilot programs for testing\n\n**Why Three New Businesses Matter**\n\nThree successful openings would:\n- Demonstrate market demand\n- Build political support for expansion\n- Create models for other entrepreneurs\n- Generate data on impacts\n- Show zoning reform works\n\nEach business could:\n- Serve 500-1,000 nearby households\n- Create 5-10 local jobs\n- Generate $300,000-$1,000,000 annual revenue\n- Reduce 100,000+ vehicle trips annually\n- Become community gathering space\n\n**Potential Locations and Neighborhoods**\n\nAreas ripe for neighborhood commercial:\n- **East Hill**: Historic neighborhood seeking walkable amenities\n- **North Hill**: Density to support neighborhood businesses\n- **East Pensacola Heights**: Corridors suitable for conversion\n- **Warrington**: Revitalization efforts underway\n- **Belmont-DeVilliers**: Historic commercial patterns\n- **Downtown adjacent areas**: Expanding downtown's walkable success\n\n**The Entrepreneurs Waiting**\n\nZoning reform would unlock opportunities for:\n- **Food entrepreneurs**: Home bakers, food trucks seeking permanent location\n- **Remote workers**: Seeking neighborhood co-working/cafĂ©\n- **Retirees**: Opening long-dreamed small business\n- **Young professionals**: Creating gathering spaces\n- **Immigrant entrepreneurs**: Traditional neighborhood businesses\n\n**Barriers Beyond Zoning**\n\nEven with zoning changes, challenges remain:\n- **Financing**: Banks unfamiliar with mixed-use\n- **Building codes**: Expensive upgrades for change of use\n- **Parking**: Neighbors' concerns despite reduced need\n- **Market uncertainty**: Unproven demand in some areas\n- **Construction costs**: Renovation expenses\n\n**Success Factors**\n\nCities successfully enabling neighborhood commercial:\n- **Streamlined permitting**: Fast, predictable approvals\n- **Financial incentives**: Grants, low-interest loans\n- **Technical assistance**: Help navigating regulations\n- **Community engagement**: Building neighbor support\n- **Pilot programs**: Testing before permanent changes\n- **Marketing**: Promoting opportunities to entrepreneurs\n\n**Case Studies from Other Cities**\n\n**Minneapolis**: Eliminated single-family zoning, allowing neighborhood commercial\n- Result: 50+ new neighborhood businesses in 3 years\n\n**Portland**: Neighborhood commercial zones throughout city\n- Result: Walkable neighborhoods with higher property values\n\n**Charlotte**: Unified Development Ordinance allowing mixed-use\n- Result: Explosion of neighborhood cafĂ©s and stores\n\n**The Economic Impact**\n\nNeighborhood commercial generates:\n- **Jobs**: 5-10 per business, often for local residents\n- **Tax revenue**: Sales tax, property tax increases\n- **Property values**: 10-20% premium for walkable neighborhoods\n- **Multiplier effects**: Local spending circulates\n- **Entrepreneurship**: Lower barriers to entry\n\n**Environmental Benefits**\n\nReducing car trips through walkable commerce:\n- Decreases emissions\n- Reduces parking demand\n- Lessens traffic congestion\n- Improves air quality\n- Encourages active transportation\n\n**Social Benefits**\n\nNeighborhood gathering spaces:\n- Build social capital\n- Reduce isolation\n- Create \"third places\" beyond home and work\n- Foster community identity\n- Enable aging in place\n\n**Timeline for Implementation**\n\nTypical progression:\n1. **Zoning amendments adopted**: 3-6 months\n2. **First applications**: 2-4 months after adoption\n3. **Permitting and construction**: 4-8 months\n4. **Business opening**: 12-18 months from zoning change\n\nFor three businesses by December 2027:\n- Zoning changes needed by: Mid-2026\n- First permits by: Late 2026\n- Construction through: 2027\n- Openings throughout: 2027" }, { "id": 39261, "title": "Will three resilience hubs (multi-use facilities for emergencies) be operational within Pensacola by August 31, 2027?", "short_title": "Three Resilience Hubs by Aug 2027?", "url_title": "Three Resilience Hubs by Aug 2027?", "slug": "three-resilience-hubs-by-aug-2027", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, Pensacola needs more than just emergency shelters. Resilience hubs represent a new model - community facilities that serve residents daily while transforming into critical support centers during disasters. With hurricane season peaks and increasing heat waves, establishing three operational hubs by August 2027 could save lives and strengthen community bonds.\n\n**What Are Resilience Hubs?**\n\nUnlike traditional emergency shelters, resilience hubs are:\n- **Year-round community spaces** with regular programming\n- **Hardened facilities** able to withstand disasters\n- **Resource centers** providing cooling, power, water, wifi, and basic supplies\n- **Coordination points** for neighborhood response and recovery\n- **Trusted spaces** already known and used by the community\n\nDuring blue skies, they might host after-school programs, senior activities, or health clinics. During emergencies, they become lifelines.\n\n**Why Pensacola Needs Resilience Hubs Now**\n\nRecent events highlight the need:\n- **Hurricane Sally (2020)**: Weeks without power for thousands\n- **Heat waves**: Increasing frequency of dangerous heat indices\n- **Flooding**: Regular inundation in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- **Digital divide**: Many lack internet for emergency information\n- **Social isolation**: Disconnected residents suffer most in disasters\n\nTraditional emergency management assumes people can:\n- Evacuate (requires car, money, somewhere to go)\n- Shelter at home (requires sturdy housing)\n- Access information (requires internet/phone)\n- Recover quickly (requires insurance, savings)\n\nResilience hubs serve those who can't.\n\n**Core Requirements for Resilience Hubs**\n\n**Physical Infrastructure**:\n- Backup power (generator or solar + battery)\n- HVAC for cooling/heating\n- Water and sanitation facilities\n- Communications equipment (wifi, charging stations)\n- Basic medical supplies and equipment\n- Food/water storage capacity\n- ADA accessibility\n\n**Operational Capacity**:\n- Trained staff or volunteers\n- Emergency operations plan\n- Community partnerships\n- Regular drills and exercises\n- 24/7 activation capability during emergencies\n- Coordination with city/county emergency management\n\n**Community Trust**:\n- Known and used by local residents\n- Culturally competent services\n- Multiple language capabilities\n- History of serving vulnerable populations\n\n**Potential Resilience Hub Locations**\n\n**Existing Community Centers** (upgrade needed):\n- Vickrey Community Center\n- Gull Point Community Center\n- Sanders Beach Community Center\n- Woodland Heights Resource Center\n\n**Schools** (with community use agreements):\n- Strategic locations in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Existing backup power and facilities\n- Known and trusted by families\n\n**Churches and Faith Centers**:\n- Deep community roots and trust\n- Often serve as informal emergency centers\n- Many have halls and kitchen facilities\n\n**Libraries**:\n- Already public spaces with cooling\n- Information and communication resources\n- Distributed throughout city\n\n**The Three-Hub Network Strategy**\n\nThree hubs would provide:\n- **Geographic coverage**: North, Central, and West Pensacola\n- **Demographic reach**: Serving diverse populations\n- **Redundancy**: Multiple options if one is compromised\n- **Pilot network**: Proving concept for expansion\n\nStrategic placement could ensure:\n- No resident more than 2 miles from a hub\n- Coverage of most vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Connection to transportation routes\n- Proximity to flood-prone and heat-island areas\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting resilience hubs:\n- **FEMA BRIC**: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities\n- **CDC**: Climate and Health program\n- **DOE**: Energy efficiency and renewable grants\n- **EPA**: Environmental Justice grants\n- **HUD**: Community Development Block Grants\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida Division of Emergency Management\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funds\n- Local resilience bonds\n- Utility hardening programs\n- Private foundation grants\n\n**Cost-Benefit Analysis**\n\nInvestment per hub: $500,000 - $2,000,000 depending on:\n- Existing facility vs. new construction\n- Level of hardening required\n- Solar/battery vs. generator only\n- Community amenities included\n\nBenefits:\n- **Lives saved**: Preventing heat deaths, providing storm shelter\n- **Reduced recovery costs**: Faster neighborhood recovery\n- **Economic continuity**: Business employees have safe families\n- **Social cohesion**: Strengthened community networks\n- **Daily value**: Year-round community programs\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical hub development: 12-18 months\n- Months 1-3: Site selection and community engagement\n- Months 4-6: Design and permitting\n- Months 7-12: Construction/renovation\n- Months 13-15: Equipment and systems installation\n- Months 16-18: Training and operational protocols\n\nFor three hubs by August 2027:\n- Latest start: February 2026\n- Optimal start: Summer 2025\n- Phased approach: One hub every 6 months\n\n**Success Stories**\n\nOther cities' resilience hub networks:\n- **Baltimore**: 20+ hubs serving 100,000+ residents\n- **Miami**: Leveraging parks and libraries\n- **New Orleans**: Church-based network post-Katrina\n- **Minneapolis**: Focus on extreme cold and heat\n\n**Community Engagement Essential**\n\nSuccessful hubs require:\n- Resident input on locations and services\n- Local organization partnerships\n- Volunteer recruitment and training\n- Cultural competency and language access\n- Trust-building before disasters strike", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve YES if three or more resilience hubs are operational within Pensacola city limits by August 31, 2027.\n\n**Definition of \"Resilience Hub\"**:\n\nMust meet ALL core requirements:\n\n1. **Multi-use Facility**: Serves community functions during normal operations AND designated emergency support center\n\n2. **Emergency Infrastructure** (must have 4 of 6):\n - Backup power (generator â„48 hours OR solar + battery)\n - HVAC system for cooling/heating\n - Water access and restrooms\n - Communications (wifi/internet + charging stations)\n - ADA accessible\n - Kitchen or food service capability\n\n3. **Operational Readiness**:\n - Written emergency operations plan\n - Trained staff or volunteers identified\n - Coordination agreement with city/county emergency management\n - Publicly announced as resilience hub\n\n4. **Public Access**:\n - Open to general public during emergencies\n - No membership or fee required for emergency use\n - Regular community programming when not activated\n\n**\"Operational\" Definition**:\n- Facility upgrades complete\n- Equipment installed and tested\n- Staff/volunteers trained\n- At least one drill or exercise completed\n- Officially designated by city as resilience hub\n- Ready for activation (not necessarily activated)\n\n**Qualifying Facilities**:\n- Community centers\n- Schools (with public access agreement)\n- Libraries\n- Faith-based facilities (if publicly accessible)\n- Recreation centers\n- Repurposed buildings\n- New construction\n\n**What Does NOT Qualify**:\n- Traditional emergency shelters only\n- Private facilities without public access\n- Facilities outside city limits\n- Mobile/temporary structures\n- Facilities without year-round community use\n- Cooling/warming centers without other hub features\n\n**Evidence Sources**:\n- City of Pensacola emergency management designation\n- City council resolutions or mayor announcements\n- Emergency management plan updates listing hubs\n- News coverage of hub openings/designation\n- City website listing of resilience hubs\n- FEMA or state grant award documentation\n\n**Geographic Requirement**:\n- All three must be within Pensacola city limits\n- If boundaries change, count facilities within 2024 boundaries\n\n**Timing**:\n- Must be operational by 11:59 PM CST August 31, 2027\n- August deadline ensures readiness for peak hurricane season", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39261, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As climate change intensifies extreme weather events, Pensacola needs more than just emergency shelters. Resilience hubs represent a new model - community facilities that serve residents daily while transforming into critical support centers during disasters. With hurricane season peaks and increasing heat waves, establishing three operational hubs by August 2027 could save lives and strengthen community bonds.\n\n**What Are Resilience Hubs?**\n\nUnlike traditional emergency shelters, resilience hubs are:\n- **Year-round community spaces** with regular programming\n- **Hardened facilities** able to withstand disasters\n- **Resource centers** providing cooling, power, water, wifi, and basic supplies\n- **Coordination points** for neighborhood response and recovery\n- **Trusted spaces** already known and used by the community\n\nDuring blue skies, they might host after-school programs, senior activities, or health clinics. During emergencies, they become lifelines.\n\n**Why Pensacola Needs Resilience Hubs Now**\n\nRecent events highlight the need:\n- **Hurricane Sally (2020)**: Weeks without power for thousands\n- **Heat waves**: Increasing frequency of dangerous heat indices\n- **Flooding**: Regular inundation in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- **Digital divide**: Many lack internet for emergency information\n- **Social isolation**: Disconnected residents suffer most in disasters\n\nTraditional emergency management assumes people can:\n- Evacuate (requires car, money, somewhere to go)\n- Shelter at home (requires sturdy housing)\n- Access information (requires internet/phone)\n- Recover quickly (requires insurance, savings)\n\nResilience hubs serve those who can't.\n\n**Core Requirements for Resilience Hubs**\n\n**Physical Infrastructure**:\n- Backup power (generator or solar + battery)\n- HVAC for cooling/heating\n- Water and sanitation facilities\n- Communications equipment (wifi, charging stations)\n- Basic medical supplies and equipment\n- Food/water storage capacity\n- ADA accessibility\n\n**Operational Capacity**:\n- Trained staff or volunteers\n- Emergency operations plan\n- Community partnerships\n- Regular drills and exercises\n- 24/7 activation capability during emergencies\n- Coordination with city/county emergency management\n\n**Community Trust**:\n- Known and used by local residents\n- Culturally competent services\n- Multiple language capabilities\n- History of serving vulnerable populations\n\n**Potential Resilience Hub Locations**\n\n**Existing Community Centers** (upgrade needed):\n- Vickrey Community Center\n- Gull Point Community Center\n- Sanders Beach Community Center\n- Woodland Heights Resource Center\n\n**Schools** (with community use agreements):\n- Strategic locations in vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Existing backup power and facilities\n- Known and trusted by families\n\n**Churches and Faith Centers**:\n- Deep community roots and trust\n- Often serve as informal emergency centers\n- Many have halls and kitchen facilities\n\n**Libraries**:\n- Already public spaces with cooling\n- Information and communication resources\n- Distributed throughout city\n\n**The Three-Hub Network Strategy**\n\nThree hubs would provide:\n- **Geographic coverage**: North, Central, and West Pensacola\n- **Demographic reach**: Serving diverse populations\n- **Redundancy**: Multiple options if one is compromised\n- **Pilot network**: Proving concept for expansion\n\nStrategic placement could ensure:\n- No resident more than 2 miles from a hub\n- Coverage of most vulnerable neighborhoods\n- Connection to transportation routes\n- Proximity to flood-prone and heat-island areas\n\n**Funding Opportunities**\n\nFederal programs supporting resilience hubs:\n- **FEMA BRIC**: Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities\n- **CDC**: Climate and Health program\n- **DOE**: Energy efficiency and renewable grants\n- **EPA**: Environmental Justice grants\n- **HUD**: Community Development Block Grants\n\nState and local sources:\n- Florida Division of Emergency Management\n- Triumph Gulf Coast funds\n- Local resilience bonds\n- Utility hardening programs\n- Private foundation grants\n\n**Cost-Benefit Analysis**\n\nInvestment per hub: $500,000 - $2,000,000 depending on:\n- Existing facility vs. new construction\n- Level of hardening required\n- Solar/battery vs. generator only\n- Community amenities included\n\nBenefits:\n- **Lives saved**: Preventing heat deaths, providing storm shelter\n- **Reduced recovery costs**: Faster neighborhood recovery\n- **Economic continuity**: Business employees have safe families\n- **Social cohesion**: Strengthened community networks\n- **Daily value**: Year-round community programs\n\n**Implementation Timeline**\n\nTypical hub development: 12-18 months\n- Months 1-3: Site selection and community engagement\n- Months 4-6: Design and permitting\n- Months 7-12: Construction/renovation\n- Months 13-15: Equipment and systems installation\n- Months 16-18: Training and operational protocols\n\nFor three hubs by August 2027:\n- Latest start: February 2026\n- Optimal start: Summer 2025\n- Phased approach: One hub every 6 months\n\n**Success Stories**\n\nOther cities' resilience hub networks:\n- **Baltimore**: 20+ hubs serving 100,000+ residents\n- **Miami**: Leveraging parks and libraries\n- **New Orleans**: Church-based network post-Katrina\n- **Minneapolis**: Focus on extreme cold and heat\n\n**Community Engagement Essential**\n\nSuccessful hubs require:\n- Resident input on locations and services\n- Local organization partnerships\n- Volunteer recruitment and training\n- Cultural competency and language access\n- Trust-building before disasters strike" } ] }
