Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api
{ "count": 6699, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "previous": null, "results": [ { "id": 41835, "title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-enter-a-shutdown-before-february-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:06:35.186687Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T16:54:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T18:25:00.072308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:06:44.726297Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-23T16:54:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41571, "title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:06:35.187086Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T16:54:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n\nAs [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n\n> Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n\n> The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n\n> The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n\n[The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n\nThe deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n\n[The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n\nFor the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). ", "fine_print": "If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\n***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919) which opened on 2025-12-04 11:43:24. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41835, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769192410.392015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769192410.392015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2733947046616797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n\nAs [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n\n> Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n\n> The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n\n> The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n\n[The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n\nThe deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n\n[The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605}}`" }, { "id": 41804, "title": "Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?", "short_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "url_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "slug": "sudan-errs-nobel-winners-2026", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T15:24:27.810419Z", "published_at": "2026-01-22T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T08:28:06.735751Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T15:25:19.647250Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-22T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 41543, "title": "Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T15:24:27.810906Z", "open_time": "2026-01-22T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024.\n\nIn 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the [PRIO Director's shortlist](https://www.prio.org/news/3596), which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025/will-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025), ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.\n\nThe same year, ERRs received the [Rafto Prize for Human Rights](https://www.rafto.no/en/the-rafto-prize/emergency-response-rooms-of-sudan-err) and the [Right Livelihood Award](https://rightlivelihood.org/the-change-makers/find-a-laureate/emergency-response-rooms/), both sometimes called \"alternative Nobels.\" Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta.\n\nAs of January 22nd 2026, ERRs do not appear on the [2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), as published on [nobelprize.org](nobelprize.org).\n\nThe prize may be shared with other laureates. The question resolves Yes if ERRs are among the named recipients.\n\nThis question resolves NO if the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to any individual or organization that does not include the ERRs.", "fine_print": "If no Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in 2026, as has occurred 19 times since 1901, the question resolves No.\n\n\"Emergency Response Rooms\" refers to the Sudanese volunteer network also known in Arabic as غرف الاستجابة للطوارئ. If the Committee names a closely related successor organization or coalition that clearly evolved from the ERRs, resolution will be determined by moderator judgment in consultation with the community.", "short_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "post_id": 41804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024.\n\nIn 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the [PRIO Director's shortlist](https://www.prio.org/news/3596), which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025/will-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025), ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.\n\nThe same year, ERRs received the [Rafto Prize for Human Rights](https://www.rafto.no/en/the-rafto-prize/emergency-response-rooms-of-sudan-err) and the [Right Livelihood Award](https://rightlivelihood.org/the-change-makers/find-a-laureate/emergency-response-rooms/), both sometimes called \"alternative Nobels.\" Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta.\n\nAs of January 22nd 2026, ERRs do not appear on the [2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139)." }, { "id": 41748, "title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-any-avian-influenza-human-cases-in-china-reported-by-the-who-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:05:22.558489Z", "published_at": "2026-01-25T19:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-25T21:00:00.174490Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:05:31.147255Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-25T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41488, "title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:05:22.558884Z", "open_time": "2026-01-25T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Avian influenza viruses (“bird flu”) occasionally infect humans, typically following direct or indirect exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments. While sustained human-to-human transmission has not been observed, such spillover infections are closely monitored due to their potential pandemic risk.\n\nChina has historically been a focal point for human avian influenza cases. Notably, H7N9 caused hundreds of human infections after first emerging in 2013, and H5N6 has led to sporadic but often severe cases in subsequent years. According to the World Health Organization, China has also reported intermittent human infections with other avian influenza subtypes over time, reflecting ongoing zoonotic risk at the human–animal interface.\nSource: WHO fact sheet on avian and zoonotic influenza\nhttps://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)\n\nMore recently, Chinese authorities reported several human infections with the H9N2 avian influenza virus in 2024–2025, largely involving children and generally presenting with mild illness.\nExample report:\nhttps://www.flu.org.cn/en/news-22316.html\n\nWHO publishes regular avian influenza situation reports summarizing confirmed human cases by country. As of early 2026, these reports had not yet recorded any new human avian influenza cases attributed to China for calendar year 2026, though surveillance remains ongoing and reports are updated periodically.\nWHO surveillance page:\nhttps://www.who.int/westernpacific/wpro-emergencies/surveillance/avian-influenza\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"479691719938f872\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2026, the WHO reports any confirmed human cases of avian influenza infection in China in calendar year 2026. The resolution will be determined by checking the WHO's Avian Influenza [situation reports](https://www.who.int/westernpacific/wpro-emergencies/surveillance/avian-influenza) for cumulative case counts attributed to China.", "fine_print": "Question resolves according to the final situation report with a publication date before April 2026. The question may resolve according to other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in case of the WHO changing its reporting.", "short_title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41748, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769374241.583738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769374241.583738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5966834574169413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Avian influenza viruses (“bird flu”) occasionally infect humans, typically following direct or indirect exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments. While sustained human-to-human transmission has not been observed, such spillover infections are closely monitored due to their potential pandemic risk.\n\nChina has historically been a focal point for human avian influenza cases. Notably, H7N9 caused hundreds of human infections after first emerging in 2013, and H5N6 has led to sporadic but often severe cases in subsequent years. According to the World Health Organization, China has also reported intermittent human infections with other avian influenza subtypes over time, reflecting ongoing zoonotic risk at the human–animal interface.\nSource: WHO fact sheet on avian and zoonotic influenza\nhttps://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)\n\nMore recently, Chinese authorities reported several human infections with the H9N2 avian influenza virus in 2024–2025, largely involving children and generally presenting with mild illness.\nExample report:\nhttps://www.flu.org.cn/en/news-22316.html\n\nWHO publishes regular avian influenza situation reports summarizing confirmed human cases by country. As of early 2026, these reports had not yet recorded any new human avian influenza cases attributed to China for calendar year 2026, though surveillance remains ongoing and reports are updated periodically.\nWHO surveillance page:\nhttps://www.who.int/westernpacific/wpro-emergencies/surveillance/avian-influenza\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"479691719938f872\"}}`" }, { "id": 41691, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "url_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "slug": "will-laura-fernandez-win-the-costa-rican-presidential-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:35.040993Z", "published_at": "2026-01-24T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T17:00:00.215017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:35.460524Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-24T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41428, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:35.041513Z", "open_time": "2026-01-24T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41555,\"question_id\":41293}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Laura Fernández Delgado wins the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, according to the official results published by the [Electoral Court of Costa Rica](https://www.tse.go.cr/resultados.html).", "fine_print": "If the election is postponed such that no winner is declared by May 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41555) which opened on 2026-01-21 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "post_id": 41691, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769273773.339526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769273773.339526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.725030151268929 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 2.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41555,\"question_id\":41293}}`" }, { "id": 41690, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-attack-iran-before-april-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:30.665608Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T17:00:00.113471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:31.294312Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-23T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41427, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:30.666019Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41594,\"question_id\":41340}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Iran's territory or military forces, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Iran's territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41594) which opened on 2026-01-21 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "post_id": 41690, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769187356.042653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769187356.042653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42194742238273947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 13.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41594,\"question_id\":41340}}`" }, { "id": 41678, "title": "Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?", "short_title": "Mary Peltola wins Alaska senate seat 2026?", "url_title": "Mary Peltola wins Alaska senate seat 2026?", "slug": "mary-peltola-wins-alaska-senate-seat-2026", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T09:25:18.177062Z", "published_at": "2026-01-25T19:19:41Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T04:29:32.200716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-25T19:20:09.521771Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-26T19:19:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41418, "title": "Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T09:25:18.177474Z", "open_time": "2026-01-26T19:19:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-30T19:19:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-30T19:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The [2026 Alaska United States Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect one of Alaska's two US senators. There will be a single, nonpartisan primary held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted via ranked-choice voting.\n\nDemocrat [Mary Peltola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Peltola) made news when she won the [2022 special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election) to represent Alaska's at-large congressional district, becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in the traditionally red state since 2008. Peltola retained her seat in the [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) general election but lost it in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska).\n\nIn January 2026, Peltola [announced](https://www.axios.com/2026/01/12/peltola-alaska-senate-race) that she is running to unseat incumbent senator [Dan Sullivan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Sullivan_\\(U.S._senator\\)). [Polling](https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/202526-Winter-Alaska-Survey-Report.pdf) suggests the race is currently neck and neck. The race [has been identified](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-senate-midterm-election-schumer-c5d2f79df1924907bcb80d26c96c3e96) as a key race for Democrats as they hope to retake the Senate in 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mary Peltola wins the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska per certified results by state election officials.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Mary Peltola wins Alaska senate seat 2026?", "post_id": 41678, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2026 Alaska United States Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect one of Alaska's two US senators. There will be a single, nonpartisan primary held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted via ranked-choice voting.\n\nDemocrat [Mary Peltola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Peltola) made news when she won the [2022 special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election) to represent Alaska's at-large congressional district, becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in the traditionally red state since 2008. Peltola retained her seat in the [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) general election but lost it in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska).\n\nIn January 2026, Peltola [announced](https://www.axios.com/2026/01/12/peltola-alaska-senate-race) that she is running to unseat incumbent senator [Dan Sullivan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Sullivan_\\(U.S._senator\\)). [Polling](https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/202526-Winter-Alaska-Survey-Report.pdf) suggests the race is currently neck and neck. The race [has been identified](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-senate-midterm-election-schumer-c5d2f79df1924907bcb80d26c96c3e96) as a key race for Democrats as they hope to retake the Senate in 2026." }, { "id": 41672, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "url_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "slug": "cp-beats-nathan-young-in-the-spring-2026-cup", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T06:04:18.642280Z", "published_at": "2026-01-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T17:00:00.321016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T06:04:19.098934Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-26T16:41:29.830930Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41413, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T06:04:18.642719Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41508,\"question_id\":41255}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at the conclusion of the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026, the Community Prediction has a greater Total Score than Nathan Young in the tournament leaderboard.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve only after all other Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 questions have resolved and will not be included in the scoring used to determine whether the Community Prediction outperformed Nathan Young.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41508) which opened on 2026-01-14 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "post_id": 41672, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769014657.484477, "end_time": 1771689600.507, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769014657.484477, "end_time": 1771689600.507, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5600595983642713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41508,\"question_id\":41255}}`" }, { "id": 41661, "title": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-24?", "short_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "url_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "slug": "ffivs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:46:03.015657Z", "published_at": "2026-01-24T03:29:26Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T05:00:00.191577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:46:03.567162Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-24T03:29:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41404, "title": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-24?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:46:03.016116Z", "open_time": "2026-01-24T03:29:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "F5, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:05) is 268.22. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It also offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. In addition, the company provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX One Console; NGINX Ingress Controller; WAF for NGINX; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. Further, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. The company sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FFIV. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "post_id": 41661, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769228376.669321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769228376.669321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4898423863397216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 11.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 9.0, 4.0, 7.0, 5.0, 3.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "F5, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:05) is 268.22. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It also offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. In addition, the company provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX One Console; NGINX Ingress Controller; WAF for NGINX; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. Further, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. The company sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`" }, { "id": 41660, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:59.164305Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T23:18:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T00:49:00.208855Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:59.557018Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:21:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-23T23:18:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41403, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:59.164697Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T23:18:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:21:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41138\n- Original question title: Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 34.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n> \n> * last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026\n> \n> or\n> \n> * be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by Russia and Ukraine and applies to all kinetic fighting against the other by both sides.\n> \n> A ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both Russia and Ukraine agree that it has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire, will not impact this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the [full-scale outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, ceasefire proposals have repeatedly been sought by numerous groups.\n> \n> Following Donald Trump's return to the White House, many speculated about the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. However, although Trump has [repeatedly engaged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)#2025_developments) in negotiations, and numerous plans have been proposed, a mutually agreeable ceasefire has yet to be found.\n> \n> On November 19, 2025, the U.S presented it's most recent proposal, with a [28 point plan](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-proposed-28-point-russia-ukraine-peace-plan/), including a barring of Ukraine from NATO, recognition of Russia's gained territory, and a U.S security guarantee for Ukraine. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41138,\"question_id\":40839,\"last_cp\":0.34}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41138) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 00:21:47 is higher than 34.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 34.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 00:21:47, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41660, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769212386.686677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769212386.686677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4141845863030691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41138\n- Original question title: Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 34.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n> \n> * last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026\n> \n> or\n> \n> * be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by Russia and Ukraine and applies to all kinetic fighting against the other by both sides.\n> \n> A ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both Russia and Ukraine agree that it has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire, will not impact this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the [full-scale outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, ceasefire proposals have repeatedly been sought by numerous groups.\n> \n> Following Donald Trump's return to the White House, many speculated about the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. However, although Trump has [repeatedly engaged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)#2025_developments) in negotiations, and numerous plans have been proposed, a mutually agreeable ceasefire has yet to be found.\n> \n> On November 19, 2025, the U.S presented it's most recent proposal, with a [28 point plan](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-proposed-28-point-russia-ukraine-peace-plan/), including a barring of Ukraine from NATO, recognition of Russia's gained territory, and a U.S security guarantee for Ukraine. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41138,\"question_id\":40839,\"last_cp\":0.34}}`" }, { "id": 41658, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-lisa-cook-not-a-member-of-the-federal-reserve-board-before-nov-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:51.506672Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T12:37:16Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:08:00.060399Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:51.974276Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T14:07:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T14:07:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T20:16:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-23T12:37:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41401, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:51.507139Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T12:37:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T14:07:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T14:07:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T20:16:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T14:07:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T14:07:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711\n- Original question title: Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 12.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n> \n> In August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n> \n> According to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n> \n> > Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n> \n> Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39711,\"question_id\":39090,\"last_cp\":0.12}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 20:16:42 is higher than 12.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 12.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 20:16:42, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41658, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769176643.547933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769176643.547933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3025394096866523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711\n- Original question title: Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 12.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n> \n> In August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n> \n> According to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n> \n> > Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n> \n> Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39711,\"question_id\":39090,\"last_cp\":0.12}}`" }, { "id": 41656, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.50% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:43.740176Z", "published_at": "2026-01-22T21:11:44Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T22:42:00.183665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:44.172582Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-22T22:41:44Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-22T22:41:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T12:09:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-22T21:11:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41399, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 12.50% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:43.740621Z", "open_time": "2026-01-22T21:11:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T22:41:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T22:41:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T12:09:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-22T22:41:44Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-22T22:41:44Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 12.50%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.125}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 12:09:48 is higher than 12.50%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 12.50%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 12:09:48, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "post_id": 41656, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769120963.296655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769120963.296655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3694873018093535 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 12.50%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.125}}`" }, { "id": 41654, "title": "Will EXE's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-22?", "short_title": "EXE's close price rises?", "url_title": "EXE's close price rises?", "slug": "exes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:35.876594Z", "published_at": "2026-01-22T05:17:18Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:48:00.134901Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:36.350478Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-22T06:47:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-22T06:47:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T15:53:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-22T05:17:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41397, "title": "Will EXE's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-22?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:35.877019Z", "open_time": "2026-01-22T05:17:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T06:47:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T06:47:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T15:53:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-22T06:47:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-22T06:47:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Expand Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EXE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:11) is 99.88. You can find more information about Expand Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXE\n\nExpand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana. The company was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Expand Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EXE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EXE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-22, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "EXE's close price rises?", "post_id": 41654, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769064307.689592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769064307.689592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5410891087631682 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 14.0, 4.0, 2.0, 18.0, 4.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Expand Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EXE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:11) is 99.88. You can find more information about Expand Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXE\n\nExpand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana. The company was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. Expand Energy Corporation was founded in 1989 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EXE\"}}`" }, { "id": 41651, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Artemis II success in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Artemis II success in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-artemis-ii-success-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:23.349976Z", "published_at": "2026-01-21T18:51:38Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T20:22:00.095809Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:23.782927Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T20:21:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T20:21:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T05:13:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T18:51:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41394, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:23.350375Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T18:51:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T20:21:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T20:21:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T05:13:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T20:21:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T20:21:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40864\n- Original question title: Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Artemis II achieves a closest-approach altitude ≤20,000 km above the lunar surface during the mission and returns to Earth with no loss of crew before January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Artemis II](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/) is NASA's attempt to return to the moon after over half a century. NASA [plans](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/nasas-first-flight-with-crew-important-step-on-long-term-return-to-the-moon-missions-to-mars/) to send 4 astronauts on a 10-day voyage around the moon, which will involve going approximately 4,700 miles (7,500 kilometers) beyond the far side of the moon. From that vantage point, the astronauts will be able to see moon with the earth in the background. \n> \n> An additional factor, beyond bringing humanity back to the moon, is a strong geopolitical rivalry [undercurrent](https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/10/nasas-artemis-ii-mission-is-crucial-as-doubts-build.html) between the United States and China. China is targeting its own moon landing for \\~2030. Assuming Artemis II is successful, the [Artemis III ](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-iii/)mission is [planned](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-iii/) to land humans on the moon again in 2027, the first time since 1972's Apollo 17 mission.\n> \n> Artemis II consists of two main vehicles: [Orion](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/orion-spacecraft/) spacecraft that will carry the humans around the moon and the [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) super-heavy launch [rocket](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/space-launch-system/) that will lift the Orion into space. The uncrewed Artemis I test mission, launched at the end of 2022, successfully [went](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/view-the-best-images-from-nasas-artemis-i-mission/) around the moon though [had](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_I#Post-landing_analysis) some minor damage which caused delays in Artemis II. \n> \n> Originally [planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_II#Launch_date) for 2019-2021, Artemis II was delayed until 2023, then September 2025, and then until April 2026. However, in March 2025, NASA [accelerated](https://www.americaspace.com/2025/03/22/nasa-accelerates-artemis-2-by-two-months/) the planned launch date to February 2026. As of December 5, 2025, NASA's official Artemis II mission page [said](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/) \"No Later Than April 2026.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40864,\"question_id\":40521,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40864) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 05:13:10 is higher than 80.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 80.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 05:13:10, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Artemis II success in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41651, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769025269.557821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769025269.557821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4614342123696074 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40864\n- Original question title: Will NASA's Artemis II complete its mission successfully before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Artemis II achieves a closest-approach altitude ≤20,000 km above the lunar surface during the mission and returns to Earth with no loss of crew before January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Artemis II](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/) is NASA's attempt to return to the moon after over half a century. NASA [plans](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/nasas-first-flight-with-crew-important-step-on-long-term-return-to-the-moon-missions-to-mars/) to send 4 astronauts on a 10-day voyage around the moon, which will involve going approximately 4,700 miles (7,500 kilometers) beyond the far side of the moon. From that vantage point, the astronauts will be able to see moon with the earth in the background. \n> \n> An additional factor, beyond bringing humanity back to the moon, is a strong geopolitical rivalry [undercurrent](https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/10/nasas-artemis-ii-mission-is-crucial-as-doubts-build.html) between the United States and China. China is targeting its own moon landing for \\~2030. Assuming Artemis II is successful, the [Artemis III ](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-iii/)mission is [planned](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-iii/) to land humans on the moon again in 2027, the first time since 1972's Apollo 17 mission.\n> \n> Artemis II consists of two main vehicles: [Orion](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/orion-spacecraft/) spacecraft that will carry the humans around the moon and the [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) super-heavy launch [rocket](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/space-launch-system/) that will lift the Orion into space. The uncrewed Artemis I test mission, launched at the end of 2022, successfully [went](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/view-the-best-images-from-nasas-artemis-i-mission/) around the moon though [had](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_I#Post-landing_analysis) some minor damage which caused delays in Artemis II. \n> \n> Originally [planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_II#Launch_date) for 2019-2021, Artemis II was delayed until 2023, then September 2025, and then until April 2026. However, in March 2025, NASA [accelerated](https://www.americaspace.com/2025/03/22/nasa-accelerates-artemis-2-by-two-months/) the planned launch date to February 2026. As of December 5, 2025, NASA's official Artemis II mission page [said](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/) \"No Later Than April 2026.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40864,\"question_id\":40521,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`" }, { "id": 41650, "title": "Will L's market close price on 2026-01-28 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-21?", "short_title": "L's close price rises?", "url_title": "L's close price rises?", "slug": "ls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:19.395323Z", "published_at": "2026-01-21T15:09:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T16:40:00.405150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:19.841601Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T16:39:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T16:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-28T15:49:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T15:09:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41393, "title": "Will L's market close price on 2026-01-28 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-21?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:19.395738Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T15:09:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T16:39:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T16:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-28T15:49:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T16:39:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T16:39:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Loews Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is L. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:59) is 102.49. You can find more information about Loews Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/L\n\nLoews Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial property and casualty insurance in the United States and internationally. The company offers specialty insurance products, such as management and professional liability, and other coverage products; surety and fidelity bonds; professional liability coverages and risk management services to various professional firms, including architects, real estate agents, and accounting and law firms; standard and excess property, marine and boiler and machinery coverages, workers' compensation, general and product liability, commercial auto, umbrella, and excess and surplus coverages, and specialized loss-sensitive insurance programs and total risk management services relating to claim and information services; directors and officers, errors and omissions, employment practices, fiduciary, fidelity, and cyber coverages, as well as for small and mid-size firms, public and privately held firms, and not-for-profit organizations; and insurance products to serve the health care industry, including professional and general liability, as well as associated casualty coverage to aging services, allied medical facilities, dentists, physicians, nurses, and other medical practitioners. It also provides warranty and alternative risk and run-off long-term care insurance products. The company markets its insurance products and services through independent agents, brokers, and managing general underwriters. In addition, it engages in the transportation and storage of natural gas and natural gas liquids; and provision of ethane supply and transportation services for industrial customers in Louisiana and Texas, as well as operates a chain of 25 hotels. Further, the company develops, manufactures, and markets a range of extrusion blow-molded and injection molded plastic containers, as well as manufactures commodity and differentiated plastic resins. Loews Corporation was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"L\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of L. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-21, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "L's close price rises?", "post_id": 41650, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769011690.639148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769011690.639148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5091249748398876 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 17.0, 2.0, 4.0, 10.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 18.0, 5.0, 4.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Loews Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is L. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:59) is 102.49. You can find more information about Loews Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/L\n\nLoews Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides commercial property and casualty insurance in the United States and internationally. The company offers specialty insurance products, such as management and professional liability, and other coverage products; surety and fidelity bonds; professional liability coverages and risk management services to various professional firms, including architects, real estate agents, and accounting and law firms; standard and excess property, marine and boiler and machinery coverages, workers' compensation, general and product liability, commercial auto, umbrella, and excess and surplus coverages, and specialized loss-sensitive insurance programs and total risk management services relating to claim and information services; directors and officers, errors and omissions, employment practices, fiduciary, fidelity, and cyber coverages, as well as for small and mid-size firms, public and privately held firms, and not-for-profit organizations; and insurance products to serve the health care industry, including professional and general liability, as well as associated casualty coverage to aging services, allied medical facilities, dentists, physicians, nurses, and other medical practitioners. It also provides warranty and alternative risk and run-off long-term care insurance products. The company markets its insurance products and services through independent agents, brokers, and managing general underwriters. In addition, it engages in the transportation and storage of natural gas and natural gas liquids; and provision of ethane supply and transportation services for industrial customers in Louisiana and Texas, as well as operates a chain of 25 hotels. Further, the company develops, manufactures, and markets a range of extrusion blow-molded and injection molded plastic containers, as well as manufactures commodity and differentiated plastic resins. Loews Corporation was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"L\"}}`" }, { "id": 41648, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-29 for the Metaculus question \"Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-trump-stop-having-potus-powers-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:11.745290Z", "published_at": "2026-01-21T06:42:07Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T08:13:00.161862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:12.124120Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T08:12:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T08:12:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-29T06:43:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T06:42:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41391, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-29 for the Metaculus question \"Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:11.745696Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T06:42:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T08:12:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T08:12:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-29T06:43:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T08:12:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T08:12:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40963\n- Original question title: Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Donald Trump is not exercising presidential powers for at least 48 consecutive hours. This includes another individual such as the Vice President temporarily assuming the powers and duties of Trump's office as Acting President pursuant to the [25th Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxv).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Donald J. Trump was inaugurated to his second term as the US president when he was 79 years old, making him the [oldest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age) person to ever take the oath of office. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/trump-age-health.html), his stamina for public meetings is visibly less than it used to be: \n> \n> > Americans see Mr. Trump less than they used to, according to a New York Times analysis of his schedule. Mr. Trump has fewer public events on his schedule and is traveling domestically much less than he did by this point during his first year in office, in 2017, although he is taking more foreign trips.\n> \n> > He also keeps a shorter public schedule than he used to. Most of his public appearances fall between noon and 5 p.m., on average.\n> \n> > Mr. Trump’s eyelids drooped until his eyes were almost closed, and he appeared to doze on and off for several seconds. At another point, he opened his eyes and looked toward a line of journalists watching him. He stood up only after a guest who was standing near him fainted and collapsed.\n> \n> > Mr. Trump has prompted additional questions about his health by sharing news about medical procedures he has had, but not details about them. While in Asia, Mr. Trump revealed that he had undergone magnetic resonance imaging at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in early October.\n> \n> President Trump's term is scheduled to end on Saturday January 20, 2029, when his successor gets inaugurated at noon Eastern US time.\n> \n> Of the 47 presidential terms that have been served throughout US history, 38 (81%) have ended in this default matter: \n> \n> * One president, Richard M. Nixon, [resigned](https://visit.archives.gov/whats-on/explore-exhibits/president-resigns-50-years-later) on August 9, 1974, a year and a half after the start of his second term. \n> * Eight presidents have died in office, with the most recent being John F. Kennedy. \n> \n> Many Vice Presidents have temporarily [assumed](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/list-vice-presidents-who-served-acting-president-under-the-25th-amendment) the duties of Acting President, with the most recent being Kamala Harris on November 19, 2021. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40963,\"question_id\":40671,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40963) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-29 06:43:31 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-29 06:43:31, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41648, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768982018.410476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.185 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768982018.410476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.185 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6525000000000001, 0.3475 ], "means": [ 0.36000298505579853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40963\n- Original question title: Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Donald Trump is not exercising presidential powers for at least 48 consecutive hours. This includes another individual such as the Vice President temporarily assuming the powers and duties of Trump's office as Acting President pursuant to the [25th Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxv).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Donald J. Trump was inaugurated to his second term as the US president when he was 79 years old, making him the [oldest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age) person to ever take the oath of office. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/trump-age-health.html), his stamina for public meetings is visibly less than it used to be: \n> \n> > Americans see Mr. Trump less than they used to, according to a New York Times analysis of his schedule. Mr. Trump has fewer public events on his schedule and is traveling domestically much less than he did by this point during his first year in office, in 2017, although he is taking more foreign trips.\n> \n> > He also keeps a shorter public schedule than he used to. Most of his public appearances fall between noon and 5 p.m., on average.\n> \n> > Mr. Trump’s eyelids drooped until his eyes were almost closed, and he appeared to doze on and off for several seconds. At another point, he opened his eyes and looked toward a line of journalists watching him. He stood up only after a guest who was standing near him fainted and collapsed.\n> \n> > Mr. Trump has prompted additional questions about his health by sharing news about medical procedures he has had, but not details about them. While in Asia, Mr. Trump revealed that he had undergone magnetic resonance imaging at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in early October.\n> \n> President Trump's term is scheduled to end on Saturday January 20, 2029, when his successor gets inaugurated at noon Eastern US time.\n> \n> Of the 47 presidential terms that have been served throughout US history, 38 (81%) have ended in this default matter: \n> \n> * One president, Richard M. Nixon, [resigned](https://visit.archives.gov/whats-on/explore-exhibits/president-resigns-50-years-later) on August 9, 1974, a year and a half after the start of his second term. \n> * Eight presidents have died in office, with the most recent being John F. Kennedy. \n> \n> Many Vice Presidents have temporarily [assumed](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/list-vice-presidents-who-served-acting-president-under-the-25th-amendment) the duties of Acting President, with the most recent being Kamala Harris on November 19, 2021. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40963,\"question_id\":40671,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41647, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI 3 hour time horizon METR 80%?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI 3 hour time horizon METR 80%?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-3-hour-time-horizon-metr-80", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:07.786765Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T23:34:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T01:05:00.100535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:08.319405Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T01:04:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T01:04:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:11:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T23:34:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41390, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:07.787192Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T23:34:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T01:04:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T01:04:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:11:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T01:04:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T01:04:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41140\n- Original question title: Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during 2026, [METR estimates](https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/) that an AI model has a time horizon of ≥3 hours at 80% reliability, i.e. the AI has an estimated ≥80% reliability on tasks requiring human experts ≥3 hours to solve.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If METR substantially changes their dataset such that new estimates are not comparable to old estimates, this question will use the closest available equivalent to the dataset used during December 2025.\n> * If METR ceases estimating a model's time horizon at ≥80% reliability, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * Current estimated time horizons are presented as \"Task duration\" or \"Task length\" when mouseovering models in the \"Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks\" graph.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [METR](https://metr.org/) is an AI model evaluation and threat research organisation that studies AI capabilities and their ability to conduct AI research and self-improve.\n> \n> METR regularly tests released models for their threat capacity, which includes measuring their ability to complete realistic software and research tasks reliably. For each task, they measure how long it takes humans with relevant expertise to complete it, then see which tasks different models can solve. By fitting a curve of model success against human task duration, they define each model's \"[time horizons](https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/)\": the longest task length (in human time) on which the model can succeed with around 50% or 80% probability.\n> \n> Their results show that these horizons have been growing exponentially over time. As of December 2025 the highest time horizon with an 80% chance of success is 31 minutes by [GPT-5.1-Codex-Max](https://evaluations.metr.org/gpt-5-1-codex-max-report/), a 5x improvement from 2024's best performer GPT-o1.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41140,\"question_id\":40841,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41140) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 14:11:40 is higher than 45.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 45.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 14:11:40, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI 3 hour time horizon METR 80%?\"?", "post_id": 41647, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768956354.495723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41000000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53404478976234 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768956354.495723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41000000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53404478976234 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41000000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.45510629401063696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41140\n- Original question title: Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during 2026, [METR estimates](https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/) that an AI model has a time horizon of ≥3 hours at 80% reliability, i.e. the AI has an estimated ≥80% reliability on tasks requiring human experts ≥3 hours to solve.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If METR substantially changes their dataset such that new estimates are not comparable to old estimates, this question will use the closest available equivalent to the dataset used during December 2025.\n> * If METR ceases estimating a model's time horizon at ≥80% reliability, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * Current estimated time horizons are presented as \"Task duration\" or \"Task length\" when mouseovering models in the \"Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks\" graph.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [METR](https://metr.org/) is an AI model evaluation and threat research organisation that studies AI capabilities and their ability to conduct AI research and self-improve.\n> \n> METR regularly tests released models for their threat capacity, which includes measuring their ability to complete realistic software and research tasks reliably. For each task, they measure how long it takes humans with relevant expertise to complete it, then see which tasks different models can solve. By fitting a curve of model success against human task duration, they define each model's \"[time horizons](https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/)\": the longest task length (in human time) on which the model can succeed with around 50% or 80% probability.\n> \n> Their results show that these horizons have been growing exponentially over time. As of December 2025 the highest time horizon with an 80% chance of success is 31 minutes by [GPT-5.1-Codex-Max](https://evaluations.metr.org/gpt-5-1-codex-max-report/), a 5x improvement from 2024's best performer GPT-o1.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41140,\"question_id\":40841,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`" }, { "id": 41646, "title": "Will IR's market close price on 2026-01-29 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "short_title": "IR's close price rises?", "url_title": "IR's close price rises?", "slug": "irs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:03.852112Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T21:36:16Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T23:07:00.088715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:04.315911Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T23:06:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T23:06:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-29T19:44:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T21:36:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41389, "title": "Will IR's market close price on 2026-01-29 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:03.852582Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T21:36:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T23:06:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T23:06:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-29T19:44:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T23:06:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T23:06:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Ingersoll Rand Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:52) is 88.16. You can find more information about Ingersoll Rand Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR\n\nIngersoll Rand Inc. provides various mission-critical air, fluid, energy, and medical technologies services and solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. The Industrial Technologies and Services segment designs, manufactures, markets, and services air and gas compression, vacuum, and blower products; fluid transfer equipment and loading systems; and power tools and lifting equipment, including associated aftermarket parts, consumables and services, air treatment equipment, controls, other accessories, and services under the Ingersoll Rand, Gardner Denver, Nash, CompAir, Elmo Rietschle, and other brands. The Precision and Science Technologies segment designs, manufactures, and markets diaphragm, piston, water-powered, peristaltic, gear, vane, progressive cavity, and syringe pumps; and gas boosters, hydrogen compression systems, automated liquid handling systems, odorant injection systems, controls, software, and other related components and accessories for precision dosing, liquid and solid transfer, dispensing, gas compression and sampling, pressure management, flow control, powder handling, and other applications under the Air Dimensions, Albin, ARO, Dosatron, Haskel, Ingersoll Rand, LMI, Maximus, Milton Roy, MP, Oberdorfer, Seepex, Thomas, Welch, Williams, YZ, and Zinnser Analytic brands. This segment's products are used in medical, laboratory, life sciences, industrial manufacturing, water and wastewater, chemical processing, energy, food and beverage, agriculture, and other markets. It sells its products through an integrated network of direct sales representatives and independent distributors. The company was formerly known as Gardner Denver Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ingersoll Rand Inc. in March 2020. Ingersoll Rand Inc. was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of IR. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-20, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "IR's close price rises?", "post_id": 41646, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768949337.957456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768949337.957456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5133880448113732 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 20.0, 7.0, 6.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ingersoll Rand Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:52) is 88.16. You can find more information about Ingersoll Rand Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IR\n\nIngersoll Rand Inc. provides various mission-critical air, fluid, energy, and medical technologies services and solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies. The Industrial Technologies and Services segment designs, manufactures, markets, and services air and gas compression, vacuum, and blower products; fluid transfer equipment and loading systems; and power tools and lifting equipment, including associated aftermarket parts, consumables and services, air treatment equipment, controls, other accessories, and services under the Ingersoll Rand, Gardner Denver, Nash, CompAir, Elmo Rietschle, and other brands. The Precision and Science Technologies segment designs, manufactures, and markets diaphragm, piston, water-powered, peristaltic, gear, vane, progressive cavity, and syringe pumps; and gas boosters, hydrogen compression systems, automated liquid handling systems, odorant injection systems, controls, software, and other related components and accessories for precision dosing, liquid and solid transfer, dispensing, gas compression and sampling, pressure management, flow control, powder handling, and other applications under the Air Dimensions, Albin, ARO, Dosatron, Haskel, Ingersoll Rand, LMI, Maximus, Milton Roy, MP, Oberdorfer, Seepex, Thomas, Welch, Williams, YZ, and Zinnser Analytic brands. This segment's products are used in medical, laboratory, life sciences, industrial manufacturing, water and wastewater, chemical processing, energy, food and beverage, agriculture, and other markets. It sells its products through an integrated network of direct sales representatives and independent distributors. The company was formerly known as Gardner Denver Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ingersoll Rand Inc. in March 2020. Ingersoll Rand Inc. was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Davidson, North Carolina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IR\"}}`" }, { "id": 41644, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-29 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-khamenei-cease-to-be-irans-supreme-leader-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:56.046606Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T20:43:07Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T22:14:00.167607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:56.429917Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T22:13:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T22:13:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-29T03:42:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T20:43:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41387, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-29 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:56.047034Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T20:43:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T22:13:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T22:13:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-29T03:42:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T22:13:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T22:13:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41462\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026 Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be Supreme Leader or he must cease to exercise the powers of Supreme Leader against his will.\n> \n> Events including the government losing control over the country or being held captive by an opposing group will qualify, while withdrawal from duties, such as due to health issues, will not be sufficient.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> Identified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has been closely associated with the expansion of state militarization and the consolidation of power within the office of the Supreme Leader. Khamenei has also faced many protests [during his time as Supreme Leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei). \n> \n> On December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n> \n> [Later in the week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d),\n> \n> > U.S. President Donald Trump and top Iranian officials exchanged dueling threats Friday as [widening protests](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) swept across parts of the Islamic Republic, further escalating tensions between the countries after [America bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June](https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579).\n> \n> On January 3, 2026, [Iran’s Supreme Leader insisted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-nuclear-economy-cf491782ecafdc9098878e5a4e5dc384),\n> \n> > that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations... the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people, according to human rights activists. \n> \n> > While it remains unclear how and if Trump will intervene, his comments sparked an immediate, angry response, with officials within the theocracy threatening to target American troops in the Mideast. They also take on new importance after Trump said Saturday that the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President [Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e), a longtime ally of Tehran.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41462,\"question_id\":41187,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41462) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-29 03:42:23 is higher than 65.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 65.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-29 03:42:23, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41644, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768946067.800333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4932991803278689 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768946067.800333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4932991803278689 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4234372477393565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41462\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026 Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be Supreme Leader or he must cease to exercise the powers of Supreme Leader against his will.\n> \n> Events including the government losing control over the country or being held captive by an opposing group will qualify, while withdrawal from duties, such as due to health issues, will not be sufficient.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> Identified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has been closely associated with the expansion of state militarization and the consolidation of power within the office of the Supreme Leader. Khamenei has also faced many protests [during his time as Supreme Leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei). \n> \n> On December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n> \n> [Later in the week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d),\n> \n> > U.S. President Donald Trump and top Iranian officials exchanged dueling threats Friday as [widening protests](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) swept across parts of the Islamic Republic, further escalating tensions between the countries after [America bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June](https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579).\n> \n> On January 3, 2026, [Iran’s Supreme Leader insisted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-nuclear-economy-cf491782ecafdc9098878e5a4e5dc384),\n> \n> > that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations... the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people, according to human rights activists. \n> \n> > While it remains unclear how and if Trump will intervene, his comments sparked an immediate, angry response, with officials within the theocracy threatening to target American troops in the Mideast. They also take on new importance after Trump said Saturday that the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President [Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e), a longtime ally of Tehran.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41462,\"question_id\":41187,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`" }, { "id": 41640, "title": "Will INVH's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "short_title": "INVH's close price rises?", "url_title": "INVH's close price rises?", "slug": "invhs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:40.314984Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T15:31:56Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T17:02:00.077345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:40.846739Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T17:01:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T17:01:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:49:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T15:31:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41383, "title": "Will INVH's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:40.315426Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T15:31:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T17:01:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T17:01:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:49:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T17:01:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T17:01:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Invitation Homes Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is INVH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:49) is 27.65. You can find more information about Invitation Homes Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INVH\n\nInvitation Homes, an S&P 500 company, is the nation's premier single-family home leasing and management company, meeting changing lifestyle demands by providing access to high-quality homes with valued features such as close proximity to jobs and access to good schools. Our purpose, Unlock the Power of Home, reflects our commitment to providing living solutions and Genuine CARE to the growing share of people who count on the flexibility and savings of leasing a home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"INVH\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of INVH. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-20, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "INVH's close price rises?", "post_id": 41640, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768927343.492992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5276086956521739 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768927343.492992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5276086956521739 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4783337055412794 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 12.0, 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 1.0, 7.0, 7.0, 7.0, 2.0, 5.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Invitation Homes Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is INVH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:49) is 27.65. You can find more information about Invitation Homes Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INVH\n\nInvitation Homes, an S&P 500 company, is the nation's premier single-family home leasing and management company, meeting changing lifestyle demands by providing access to high-quality homes with valued features such as close proximity to jobs and access to good schools. Our purpose, Unlock the Power of Home, reflects our commitment to providing living solutions and Genuine CARE to the growing share of people who count on the flexibility and savings of leasing a home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"INVH\"}}`" }, { "id": 41639, "title": "Will OKE's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "short_title": "OKE's close price rises?", "url_title": "OKE's close price rises?", "slug": "okes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:36.323681Z", "published_at": "2026-01-20T12:40:41Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T14:11:00.092878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:36.843828Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T14:10:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T14:10:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T08:04:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-20T12:40:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T04:19:47.372217Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41382, "title": "Will OKE's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-20?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:44:36.324078Z", "open_time": "2026-01-20T12:40:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-20T14:10:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-20T14:10:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T08:04:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T14:10:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-20T14:10:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "ONEOK, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is OKE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:02) is 74.4. You can find more information about ONEOK, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKE\n\nONEOK, Inc. operates as a midstream service provider of gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export services in the United States. It operates in four segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; Natural Gas Pipelines; and Refined Products and Crude. The company owns natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants in the Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, North Texas, Gulf Coast region, and Rocky Mountain regions; and provides midstream services to producers of NGLs. It also owns NGL gathering and distribution pipelines, fractionation, terminal and storage facilities; and transports refined products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, kerosene, and heating oil. In addition, the company transports and stores natural gas through regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines, and natural gas storage facilities; it owns and operates a parking garage in downtown Tulsa, Oklahoma; and leases buildings, warehouses, office space, land, and equipment, including pipeline equipment, pipeline capacity, rail cars, and information technology equipment. Further, the company transports, stores, and distributes refined products, purity NGLs, and crude oil, as well as conducts commodity-related activities, including liquids blending and marketing activities. It serves integrated and independent exploration and production companies; other NGL and natural gas gathering and processing companies; crude oil and natural gas production companies; utilities; industrial companies; natural gasoline distributors; propane distributors; municipalities; ethanol producers; petrochemical, refining, and marketing companies; and diluent users, refineries, and exporters. ONEOK, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"OKE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of OKE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-20, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "OKE's close price rises?", "post_id": 41639, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768917625.593348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768917625.593348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5003104146005113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 18.0, 2.0, 5.0, 5.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 10.0, 7.0, 2.0, 11.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ONEOK, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is OKE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:02) is 74.4. You can find more information about ONEOK, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKE\n\nONEOK, Inc. operates as a midstream service provider of gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export services in the United States. It operates in four segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing; Natural Gas Liquids; Natural Gas Pipelines; and Refined Products and Crude. The company owns natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants in the Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, North Texas, Gulf Coast region, and Rocky Mountain regions; and provides midstream services to producers of NGLs. It also owns NGL gathering and distribution pipelines, fractionation, terminal and storage facilities; and transports refined products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, aviation fuel, kerosene, and heating oil. In addition, the company transports and stores natural gas through regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines, and natural gas storage facilities; it owns and operates a parking garage in downtown Tulsa, Oklahoma; and leases buildings, warehouses, office space, land, and equipment, including pipeline equipment, pipeline capacity, rail cars, and information technology equipment. Further, the company transports, stores, and distributes refined products, purity NGLs, and crude oil, as well as conducts commodity-related activities, including liquids blending and marketing activities. It serves integrated and independent exploration and production companies; other NGL and natural gas gathering and processing companies; crude oil and natural gas production companies; utilities; industrial companies; natural gasoline distributors; propane distributors; municipalities; ethanol producers; petrochemical, refining, and marketing companies; and diluent users, refineries, and exporters. ONEOK, Inc. was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"OKE\"}}`" } ] }
