Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api
{ "count": 6208, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "previous": null, "results": [ { "id": 40457, "title": "Will San Antonio, Texas receive any rain before November 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in San Antonio, Texas before November 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in San Antonio, Texas before November 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-san-antonio-texas-before-november-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:26.630903Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T20:13:27.893655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-24T13:27:27.908465Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-16T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-24T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40022, "title": "Will San Antonio, Texas receive any rain before November 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:26.631322Z", "open_time": "2025-10-24T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-29T13:26:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-29T13:26:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-16T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "KSAT: [San Antonio endures more than 40 days without significant rain](https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/10/22/san-antonio-endures-more-than-40-days-without-significant-rain/)\n\n> San Antonio has been enduring an unusually long dry spell, and residents across the city are beginning to feel the effects.\n\n> According to records, the last time San Antonio saw a truly significant rainfall event— measuring over two inches — was on Aug. 31 with 3.11 inches.\n\n> With more than 40 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, the region is currently experiencing one of its driest periods in recent memory — comparable to a similar streak in 2015.\n\n> While there have been some isolated drizzles since then, they’ve done little to alleviate the drought conditions gripping the area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SAT\\&network=TX_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's San Antonio International Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day after October 24, 2025 and before November 15, 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "KSAT: [San Antonio endures more than 40 days without significant rain](https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/10/22/san-antonio-endures-more-than-40-days-without-significant-rain/)\n\n> San Antonio has been enduring an unusually long dry spell, and residents across the city are beginning to feel the effects.\n\n> According to records, the last time San Antonio saw a truly significant rainfall event— measuring over two inches — was on Aug. 31 with 3.11 inches.\n\n> With more than 40 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, the region is currently experiencing one of its driest periods in recent memory — comparable to a similar streak in 2015.\n\n> While there have been some isolated drizzles since then, they’ve done little to alleviate the drought conditions gripping the area." }, { "id": 40440, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-12-a-share-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-22T13:34:51.738050Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T21:46:54.011084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-22T13:35:10.101376Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T13:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40010, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-22T13:34:51.738519Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T13:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high during normal trading hours of greater than or equal to \\$12.00 after October 21, 2025 and before November 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 40438, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-6-a-share-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T19:21:31.853058Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T13:38:39.290007Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T19:28:46.279911Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40008, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T19:21:31.853516Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-22T13:32:33.374157Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 440%, from \\$0.65 to \\$3.51, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high during normal trading hours of greater than or equal to \\$6.00 after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7868304184704651, "peer_score": 0.2837685915300289, "coverage": 0.00834341533576929, "baseline_score": 0.06857539062778902, "spot_peer_score": 38.181021860866544, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.2837685915300289, "baseline_archived_score": 0.06857539062778902, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.181021860866544, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 440%, from \\$0.65 to \\$3.51, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 40436, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-3-a-share-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T15:29:47.188806Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T19:29:10.508247Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:14.354822Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40006, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T15:29:47.189252Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T19:18:11.345647Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 234%, from \\$0.65 to \\$2.17, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high of greater than or equal to \\$3.00 after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40436, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7798458679406731, "peer_score": 3.5465201789655184e-06, "coverage": 0.0011006351561644314, "baseline_score": 0.0748023561961664, "spot_peer_score": 0.09186955170723035, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 3.5465201789655184e-06, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0748023561961664, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.09186955170723035, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 234%, from \\$0.65 to \\$2.17, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 40435, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-385-trillion-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T14:58:34.333620Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T14:58:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T20:04:47.971660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T14:59:21.812688Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40005, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T14:58:34.334082Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for December 31, 2025 is less than \\$38,500,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 40435, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*" }, { "id": 40434, "title": "Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?", "short_title": "Isaacman NASA Admin in 2025?", "url_title": "Isaacman NASA Admin in 2025?", "slug": "isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T13:23:58.003966Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:10:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:49:20.851706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-24T13:16:47.184116Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T02:17:16.728758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T02:17:16.728758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40004, "title": "Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T13:23:58.004402Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-31T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent days, a [power struggle](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-nasa-administrator-conflict-b7df4877) has emerged in DC around the future of NASA. Jared Isaacman, who is acquainted with Elon Musk, was the initial nominee to lead the Agency was reported to be [in contention once again](https://www.reuters.com/science/former-nasa-nominee-jared-isaacman-talks-become-agencys-chief-2025-10-14/). His nomination was cancelled and the falling out between Musk and Trump seemed to be the end of that possibility.\n\nSecretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, acting NASA Administrator, has recently [announced](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/nasas-acting-leader-seeks-to-keep-his-job-with-new-lunar-lander-announcement/) that SpaceX might not be the company bringing the US to the Moon. This comes, as Eric Berger [confirmed](https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1980413183677604083), in a campaign from Duffy to end the independence of NASA, [fold it into the Department of Transportation](https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1980413183677604083) and not have Isaacman as its Administrator. According to Berger, the decision now lies with Trump.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if after October 26, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, [Jared Isaacman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Isaacman) is nominated as NASA Administrator.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent days, a [power struggle](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-nasa-administrator-conflict-b7df4877) has emerged in DC around the future of NASA. Jared Isaacman, who is acquainted with Elon Musk, was the initial nominee to lead the Agency was reported to be [in contention once again](https://www.reuters.com/science/former-nasa-nominee-jared-isaacman-talks-become-agencys-chief-2025-10-14/). His nomination was cancelled and the falling out between Musk and Trump seemed to be the end of that possibility.\n\nSecretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, acting NASA Administrator, has recently [announced](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/nasas-acting-leader-seeks-to-keep-his-job-with-new-lunar-lander-announcement/) that SpaceX might not be the company bringing the US to the Moon. This comes, as Eric Berger [confirmed](https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1980413183677604083), in a campaign from Duffy to end the independence of NASA, [fold it into the Department of Transportation](https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1980413183677604083) and not have Isaacman as its Administrator. According to Berger, the decision now lies with Trump." }, { "id": 40430, "title": "Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any jewels stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered by Dec 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any jewels stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered by Dec 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-jewels-stolen-in-the-2025-louvre-heist-be-recovered-by-dec-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-20T09:41:56.574688Z", "published_at": "2025-10-20T10:32:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T16:01:51.823360Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-20T10:32:42.690489Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-20T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40003, "title": "Will any of these 8 pieces of jewelry stolen in the 2025 Louvre heist be recovered before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-20T09:41:56.575060Z", "open_time": "2025-10-20T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-25T10:32:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-25T10:32:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News (Aus) October 20, 2025: [What will happen to the stolen Louvre jewellery? Experts say it is unlikely they will ever be seen again](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-20/what-will-happen-to-stolen-louvre-jewellery/105912134)\n\n> Armed with power tools, a crane lift, motorbikes and a plan straight out of a movie, four thieves broke into the Louvre Museum to steal jewellery once worn by France's queens and emperors.\n\n> It happened in broad daylight, while the museum was open, and took just 4 minutes.\n\n> With the [thieves still at large](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-19/louvre-museum-in-paris-robbed/105909826) and an investigation underway, attention has now turned to what will happen to the jewels.\n\n> A total of nine objects were targeted, but only eight were actually stolen.\n\n> The crown of Empress Eugénie was found outside the museum.\n\n> The thieves apparently dropped the piece, made of gold, emerald and diamonds, as they made their getaway.\n\n> All are from the 19th century and once belonged to French royalty or imperial rulers.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2025, any part of the materials of these eight items stolen in the [2025 Louvre robbery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Louvre_robbery) is recovered by a [competent authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Competent_authority) with the legal right to possess the item (including but not limited to police, prosecutors, the Louvre, and the French government) and publicly reported as having done so according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n\n1. The [tiara](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Louvre_robbery#/media/File:Diad%C3%A8me_de_la_parure_de_la_reine_Marie-Am%C3%A9lie_et_de_la_Reine_Hortense_-_Mus%C3%A9e_du_Louvre_Objets_d'art_OA_11030.jpg) from Maria Amalia of Naples and Sicily and Hortense de Beauharnais\n2. The [necklace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Louvre_robbery#/media/File:Collier_de_la_parure_de_la_reine_Marie-Am%C3%A9lie_-_Mus%C3%A9e_du_Louvre_Objets_d'art_OA_11031.jpg) from Maria Amalia and Hortense\n3. An [earring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Louvre_robbery#/media/File:Boucles_d'oreille_de_la_parure_de_la_reine_Marie-Am%C3%A9lie_-_Mus%C3%A9e_du_Louvre_Objets_d'art_OA_11033_;_OA_11034.jpg) from Maria Amalia and Hortense \n4. The emerald [necklace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Louvre_robbery#/media/File:Collier_en_%C3%A9meraudes_de_la_parure_de_Marie-Louise_-_Mus%C3%A9e_du_Louvre_Objets_d'Art_OA_12155.jpg) from Empress Marie Louise\n5. A pair of emerald [earrings](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Louvre_robbery#/media/File:Paire_de_boucles_d'oreilles_en_%C3%A9meraudes_de_la_parure_de_Marie-Louise_-_Mus%C3%A9e_du_Louvre_OA_12156.jpg) from Empress Marie Louise\n6. The reliquary [brooch](https://www.elle.com.au/culture/louvre-museum-robbery-jewellery-items-stolen/) worn by Empress Eugénie\n7. The [tiara](https://royalwatcherblog.com/2025/10/20/empress-eugenies-pearl-tiara/) of Empress Eugénie.\n8. The[ big bodice knot](https://artdependence.com/articles/the-louvre-acquired-one-of-the-stolen-jewels-for-672-million-euros/) of the Empress Eugenie", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40430, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News (Aus) October 20, 2025: [What will happen to the stolen Louvre jewellery? Experts say it is unlikely they will ever be seen again](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-20/what-will-happen-to-stolen-louvre-jewellery/105912134)\n\n> Armed with power tools, a crane lift, motorbikes and a plan straight out of a movie, four thieves broke into the Louvre Museum to steal jewellery once worn by France's queens and emperors.\n\n> It happened in broad daylight, while the museum was open, and took just 4 minutes.\n\n> With the [thieves still at large](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-19/louvre-museum-in-paris-robbed/105909826) and an investigation underway, attention has now turned to what will happen to the jewels.\n\n> A total of nine objects were targeted, but only eight were actually stolen.\n\n> The crown of Empress Eugénie was found outside the museum.\n\n> The thieves apparently dropped the piece, made of gold, emerald and diamonds, as they made their getaway.\n\n> All are from the 19th century and once belonged to French royalty or imperial rulers." }, { "id": 40426, "title": "Will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom win 33 or more seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives in the 2025 election?", "short_title": "Will the Party for Freedom win 33+ seats in the 2025 election?", "url_title": "Will the Party for Freedom win 33+ seats in the 2025 election?", "slug": "will-the-party-for-freedom-win-33-seats-in-the-2025-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-18T20:55:06.288392Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T21:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T14:40:33.239133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-18T21:01:26.778616Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-30T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-19T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39997, "title": "Will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom win 33 or more seats in the Netherlands House of Representatives in the 2025 election?", "created_at": "2025-10-18T20:55:06.288897Z", "open_time": "2025-10-19T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-23T21:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-23T21:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-30T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-29T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Robert Schuman Foundation: [Far-right forces lead the poll in the Netherlands](https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/monitor/6628-far-right-forces-lead-the-poll-in-the-netherlands)\n\n> The Dutch are being called to the polls on 29 October to elect the 150 members of the Second Chamber (*Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal*), the lower house of parliament. The general elections are being held two years early, following the departure of Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) from the government on 3 June.\n\n> Formed on 2 July 2024 following the previous general elections on 22 November 2023, the coalition government led by senior civil servant Dick Schoof (independent) comprised four parties until last spring: the Party for Freedom, a right-wing populist party created and led by Geert Wilders, who is also its only member; the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), a liberal party led by Dilan Yesilgoz; the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), representing the rural world, led by Caroline van der Plas; and the New Social Contract (NSC), a centrist party led by Nicolien van Vroonhoven.\n\nSee also: [Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39752/2025-dutch-election-winner/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Party for Freedom wins greater than or equal to 33 House of Representatives seats in the [2025 Dutch general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Dutch_general_election) scheduled for October 29, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40426, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761283711.694, "end_time": 1761467603.866, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761283711.694, "end_time": 1761467603.866, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4878275261098516 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Robert Schuman Foundation: [Far-right forces lead the poll in the Netherlands](https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/monitor/6628-far-right-forces-lead-the-poll-in-the-netherlands)\n\n> The Dutch are being called to the polls on 29 October to elect the 150 members of the Second Chamber (*Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal*), the lower house of parliament. The general elections are being held two years early, following the departure of Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV) from the government on 3 June.\n\n> Formed on 2 July 2024 following the previous general elections on 22 November 2023, the coalition government led by senior civil servant Dick Schoof (independent) comprised four parties until last spring: the Party for Freedom, a right-wing populist party created and led by Geert Wilders, who is also its only member; the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), a liberal party led by Dilan Yesilgoz; the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), representing the rural world, led by Caroline van der Plas; and the New Social Contract (NSC), a centrist party led by Nicolien van Vroonhoven.\n\nSee also: [Which party will win the most seats in the 2025 Dutch general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39752/2025-dutch-election-winner/)" }, { "id": 40424, "title": "Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the BCRA draw from a dollar swap line with US government by Jan 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the BCRA draw from a dollar swap line with US government by Jan 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-bcra-draw-from-a-dollar-swap-line-with-us-government-by-jan-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-18T14:27:37.161644Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T14:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T15:09:38.620834Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-18T14:28:19.339415Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39995, "title": "Will the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) draw from a dollar swap line with the US government before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-18T14:27:37.162109Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-19T14:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-19T14:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 9, 2025, the United States Treasury [announced](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-administrations-20b-bailout-argentina/story?id=126513232) a US dollar currency swap line with Argentina would be created. A currency swap line[ is ](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-federal-reserve-swap-lines/)a line of credit provided by the US government (typically the US Treasury or Federal Reserve), in which a foreign central bank has the ability to borrow US dollars and repay them in its own currency. This has the net effect of boosting the value of the foreign currency (in this case the Argentine peso). \n\nAt the time of this question, the BCRA [had not drawn ](https://www.omfif.org/2025/10/argentina-the-us-treasury-and-the-20bn-swap/)from a US dollar currency swap and it was unclear whether a currency swap agreement had been officially signed.\n\nPlease find base rate information at [this spreadsheet.](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J7tkibNArBDPxa2DxOeUDz6WZck0IRCelvChp1m0-Ac/edit?gid=0#gid=0)\n\nSee also: [Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031/us-bailout-argentina-2025/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves a **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) draws US dollars from a currency swap line with the US Treasury or Federal Reserve, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's [Central Bank Liquidity Swap Operations](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/central-bank-liquidity-swap-operations) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40424, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761318553.76048, "end_time": 1761598552.08, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761318553.76048, "end_time": 1761598552.08, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8774398288639724 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 9, 2025, the United States Treasury [announced](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-administrations-20b-bailout-argentina/story?id=126513232) a US dollar currency swap line with Argentina would be created. A currency swap line[ is ](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-are-federal-reserve-swap-lines/)a line of credit provided by the US government (typically the US Treasury or Federal Reserve), in which a foreign central bank has the ability to borrow US dollars and repay them in its own currency. This has the net effect of boosting the value of the foreign currency (in this case the Argentine peso). \n\nAt the time of this question, the BCRA [had not drawn ](https://www.omfif.org/2025/10/argentina-the-us-treasury-and-the-20bn-swap/)from a US dollar currency swap and it was unclear whether a currency swap agreement had been officially signed.\n\nPlease find base rate information at [this spreadsheet.](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J7tkibNArBDPxa2DxOeUDz6WZck0IRCelvChp1m0-Ac/edit?gid=0#gid=0)\n\nSee also: [Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031/us-bailout-argentina-2025/)" }, { "id": 40423, "title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?", "slug": "will-katie-wilson-be-elected-mayor-of-seattle-washington-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-18T11:38:50.140970Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T11:41:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T19:18:58.378347Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-18T11:41:41.626962Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39994, "title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-18T11:38:50.141357Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-23T11:41:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-23T11:41:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Seattle, Washington's mayoral race is another contest (along with [New York City](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665/will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025/) and [Minneapolis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922/will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025/)) pitting a progressive newcomer against an establishment centrist. See for example The Urbanist Op-Ed: [Katie Wilson is the Zohran Mamdani of Seattle](https://www.theurbanist.org/2025/06/29/op-ed-katie-wilson-is-the-zohran-mamdani-of-seattle/).\n\nPolling averages can be found at [RaceToTheWH](https://www.racetothewh.com/mayor/seattle2025).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Katie Wilson is elected mayor of Seattle in the [2025 mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Seattle_mayoral_election). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40423, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761294099.428454, "end_time": 1761412695.224, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761294099.428454, "end_time": 1761412695.224, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7511590994448128 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Seattle, Washington's mayoral race is another contest (along with [New York City](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665/will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025/) and [Minneapolis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922/will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025/)) pitting a progressive newcomer against an establishment centrist. See for example The Urbanist Op-Ed: [Katie Wilson is the Zohran Mamdani of Seattle](https://www.theurbanist.org/2025/06/29/op-ed-katie-wilson-is-the-zohran-mamdani-of-seattle/).\n\nPolling averages can be found at [RaceToTheWH](https://www.racetothewh.com/mayor/seattle2025)." }, { "id": 40422, "title": "Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the United States commit to give Ukraine Tomahawk missiles by Dec 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the United States commit to give Ukraine Tomahawk missiles by Dec 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-united-states-commit-to-give-ukraine-tomahawk-missiles-by-dec-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-18T11:17:35.579888Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T11:26:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T18:37:21.435805Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-18T11:27:05.293950Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39993, "title": "Will the United States commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles before December 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-18T11:17:35.580345Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-23T11:26:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-23T11:26:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC [An afternoon at the White House - what happened?](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj6ne4xjg6kt):\n\n> \\[Ukraine President Volodomir] Zelensky appealed for Tomahawk missiles from the US and appeared to suggest a weapons trade in which Ukraine could send the US drones in exchange. Trump said he would discuss the matter, but added that introducing Tomahawks to Ukraine could represent a major escalation, and that the US needs those weapons too. Ultimately, the meeting ended with no movement on the issue, Zelensky explained\n\nDW [Why Ukraine wants, and Russia fears, Tomahawk missiles](https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-tomahawk-missiles-russia-war-trump-putin-zelenskyy-v2/a-74391470): \n\n> President Donald Trump has in recent days said he has not ruled out supplying US-made Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if Russia continues to refuse a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.\n\n> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he and [Trump](https://www.dw.com/en/us-president-donald-trump-russia-ukraine-israel-gaza-tariffs-trade-war/t-19434433) had discussed the long-range missiles in a phone call, although he did not provide further details.\n\n> Zelenskyy believes Tomahawk missiles could help bring an end to [Russia's war on Ukraine](https://www.dw.com/en/russias-war-in-ukraine/t-60931789). \"We see and hear that Russia is afraid that the Americans may give us Tomahawks — that this kind of pressure may work for peace,\" Zelenskyy said on October 12.\n\n> Zelenskyy said if the US were to supply these weapons, Ukraine would only use them to strike Russian military targets.\n\n> Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has said the missiles posed no serious threat to his country but added that supplying them to Ukraine would still mark \"an entirely new, qualitatively different, escalation\" in US-Russia relations. Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian state television that Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine were causing \"extreme concern\" in Moscow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) the United States government announces a commitment to provide Ukraine with any variant of the the [BGM-109 Tomahawk Land Attack Missile](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_missile). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40422, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761331030.724493, "end_time": 1761432313.908, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761331030.724493, "end_time": 1761432313.908, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.3135760211623482 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BBC [An afternoon at the White House - what happened?](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cj6ne4xjg6kt):\n\n> \\[Ukraine President Volodomir] Zelensky appealed for Tomahawk missiles from the US and appeared to suggest a weapons trade in which Ukraine could send the US drones in exchange. Trump said he would discuss the matter, but added that introducing Tomahawks to Ukraine could represent a major escalation, and that the US needs those weapons too. Ultimately, the meeting ended with no movement on the issue, Zelensky explained\n\nDW [Why Ukraine wants, and Russia fears, Tomahawk missiles](https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-tomahawk-missiles-russia-war-trump-putin-zelenskyy-v2/a-74391470): \n\n> President Donald Trump has in recent days said he has not ruled out supplying US-made Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if Russia continues to refuse a peaceful resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.\n\n> Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that he and [Trump](https://www.dw.com/en/us-president-donald-trump-russia-ukraine-israel-gaza-tariffs-trade-war/t-19434433) had discussed the long-range missiles in a phone call, although he did not provide further details.\n\n> Zelenskyy believes Tomahawk missiles could help bring an end to [Russia's war on Ukraine](https://www.dw.com/en/russias-war-in-ukraine/t-60931789). \"We see and hear that Russia is afraid that the Americans may give us Tomahawks — that this kind of pressure may work for peace,\" Zelenskyy said on October 12.\n\n> Zelenskyy said if the US were to supply these weapons, Ukraine would only use them to strike Russian military targets.\n\n> Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has said the missiles posed no serious threat to his country but added that supplying them to Ukraine would still mark \"an entirely new, qualitatively different, escalation\" in US-Russia relations. Putin's spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian state television that Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine were causing \"extreme concern\" in Moscow." }, { "id": 40417, "title": "In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map?", "slug": "will-scotus-strike-down-louisianas-congressional-map", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-17T16:00:00.801139Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T16:07:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T20:09:35.555276Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T16:07:58.487627Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T16:07:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:28.551658Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:27:28.551658Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39987, "title": "In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS rule that Louisiana's map with two majority-Black districts is illegal?", "created_at": "2025-10-17T16:00:00.801605Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T16:07:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T17:07:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T17:07:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-05T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-05T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2024, lawmakers in Louisiana passed [SB8](https://legislation.ballotpedia.org/elections/bill/8947), which created two majority-Black congressional districts in the state out of the Louisiana's total of six districts (with about one-third of the state's population [identifying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Louisiana) as Black or African American in the 2020 census). Previously the state [attempted](https://about.bgov.com/insights/news/louisiana-lawmakers-keep-one-black-district-in-u-s-house-plan/) to have only one such district, before [losing](https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/15/5th-circuit-denies-louisianas-appeal-in-congressional-redistricting-case/) in court. \n\nThe Voting Rights Act of 1965 in Section 2 [says](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10301) no citizen may be denied the right to vote on account of race. In practice this has meant, in what has been called the [Gingles Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornburg_v._Gingles#Opinion_of_the_Court) from a 1986 Supreme Court decision, that a minority group must be given a congressional district when it is large and geographically compact enough to form a cohesive district, votes in a cohesive manner, and votes in a different manner from the majority population of the state. \n\nWith Louisiana having highly [polarized](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voting-rights-act-returns-supreme-court) voting patterns by race, the question of whether one of its six congressional districts is majority-Black or whether two of its districts are means the difference between sending two Democrats and four Republicans to Congress or just one Democrat and five Republicans. Across the South, which has similar racial polarization, if efforts to reduce the numbers of majority-Black congressional districts succeed, then it could mean up to 19 seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans according to[ one estimate](https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-lose-these-districts-if-scotus-curtails-voting-rights-act-10879309). \n\nShortly after SB8's enactment, a group of voters describing themselves as \"non-African American\" [sued](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/03/court-weighs-louisiana-redistricting-with-second-majority-black-district/) over the map, arguing it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering of voters by race. At the time of this question, the case, Louisiana v. Callais, is being litigated before the US Supreme Court. Legal experts [have](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/15/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-argument-00609187) [varied](https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152557) opinions on how the Court might rule. \n\nFor more information please see coverage at [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais-2/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 5, 2026, in [Louisiana, Appellant v Phillip Callais, et al.](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html), the United States Supreme Court holds that the Louisiana congressional [map](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/Act2Congress/District%20and%20Split%20Parish%20Maps/Act%202%20\\(SB8\\)%201st%20ES%202024%20-%20Congressional%20Districts%20-%20Statewide.pdf) for 2024 ([SB8](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/2024CONGRESSACT2)) is illegal, unconstitutional, or otherwise invalid under the US Constitution or federal law. \n\nIf, before October 5, 2026, the Court issues a final disposition of Louisiana v. Callais affirming the SB8 map, or dismissing, vacating or remanding the case on other grounds, then the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40417, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January 2024, lawmakers in Louisiana passed [SB8](https://legislation.ballotpedia.org/elections/bill/8947), which created two majority-Black congressional districts in the state out of the Louisiana's total of six districts (with about one-third of the state's population [identifying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Louisiana) as Black or African American in the 2020 census). Previously the state [attempted](https://about.bgov.com/insights/news/louisiana-lawmakers-keep-one-black-district-in-u-s-house-plan/) to have only one such district, before [losing](https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/15/5th-circuit-denies-louisianas-appeal-in-congressional-redistricting-case/) in court. \n\nThe Voting Rights Act of 1965 in Section 2 [says](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10301) no citizen may be denied the right to vote on account of race. In practice this has meant, in what has been called the [Gingles Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornburg_v._Gingles#Opinion_of_the_Court) from a 1986 Supreme Court decision, that a minority group must be given a congressional district when it is large and geographically compact enough to form a cohesive district, votes in a cohesive manner, and votes in a different manner from the majority population of the state. \n\nWith Louisiana having highly [polarized](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voting-rights-act-returns-supreme-court) voting patterns by race, the question of whether one of its six congressional districts is majority-Black or whether two of its districts are means the difference between sending two Democrats and four Republicans to Congress or just one Democrat and five Republicans. Across the South, which has similar racial polarization, if efforts to reduce the numbers of majority-Black congressional districts succeed, then it could mean up to 19 seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans according to[ one estimate](https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-lose-these-districts-if-scotus-curtails-voting-rights-act-10879309). \n\nShortly after SB8's enactment, a group of voters describing themselves as \"non-African American\" [sued](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/03/court-weighs-louisiana-redistricting-with-second-majority-black-district/) over the map, arguing it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering of voters by race. At the time of this question, the case, Louisiana v. Callais, is being litigated before the US Supreme Court. Legal experts [have](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/15/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-argument-00609187) [varied](https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152557) opinions on how the Court might rule. \n\nFor more information please see coverage at [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais-2/)." }, { "id": 40410, "title": "Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?", "short_title": "In 2025 will Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?", "url_title": "In 2025 will Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?", "slug": "in-2025-will-bill-ackman-beat-the-return-of-any-of-these-politicians", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-17T12:49:39.547694Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T12:57:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:02:35.616546Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-17T12:59:07.361488Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T21:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-17T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39980, "title": "Will the 2025 return of professional investor Bill Ackman beat the return of any of these politicians?", "created_at": "2025-10-17T12:49:39.548069Z", "open_time": "2025-10-17T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T12:57:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T12:57:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T21:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Investopedia: [How You Can Find Out Exactly What Lawmakers Are Investing In](https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-find-lawmaker-investments-11753849)\n\n> Curious about where lawmakers invest their money? Politicians' investment choices often attract attention because of their unique position in shaping policy. In fact, a 2024 report by the trading platform Unusual Whales found that more than 20 members of Congress earned nearly double the S\\&P 500's average gain.1\n\n> It's important to note that [insider trading](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insidertrading.asp) by members of Congress is prohibited under federal securities law, just like it is for everyone else. The STOCK Act reaffirmed this prohibition and made clear that lawmakers can't use nonpublic information gained through their official duties for personal financial gain. However, proving insider trading requires demonstrating that someone knowingly used [material, nonpublic information](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/materialinsiderinformation.asp). That's a high legal bar, which is one reason there haven't yet been any prosecutions under the STOCK Act.\n\nAt the time of this question, each politician's year-to-date return exceeded that of Bill Ackman, whose funds since their inception have [outperformed](https://www.investinassets.net/p/how-bill-ackman-beats-the-market) the market. \n\nIn the 2024 version of this question, the professional investor [failed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30622/will-the-2024-return-of-professional-investor-howard-marks-beat-the-return-of-any-of-the-politicans-tracked-by-quiver-quantitative/) to beat any of the politicians.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2024, the 12-month total return of Bill Ackmans' portfolio as reported by Quiver Quantitative exceeds the 12-month return of any of these individuals: Nancy Pelosi, Rob Bresnahan, Tim Moore, Josh Gottheimer, Donald Beyer, or Sheldon Whitehouse. To access the returns, go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/), making sure Strategies Shown is set to \"All Strategies.\" For total return, click 12 Months. The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761267745.371806, "end_time": 1761525417.521, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761267745.371806, "end_time": 1761525417.521, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19857509873258972 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Investopedia: [How You Can Find Out Exactly What Lawmakers Are Investing In](https://www.investopedia.com/how-to-find-lawmaker-investments-11753849)\n\n> Curious about where lawmakers invest their money? Politicians' investment choices often attract attention because of their unique position in shaping policy. In fact, a 2024 report by the trading platform Unusual Whales found that more than 20 members of Congress earned nearly double the S\\&P 500's average gain.1\n\n> It's important to note that [insider trading](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/insidertrading.asp) by members of Congress is prohibited under federal securities law, just like it is for everyone else. The STOCK Act reaffirmed this prohibition and made clear that lawmakers can't use nonpublic information gained through their official duties for personal financial gain. However, proving insider trading requires demonstrating that someone knowingly used [material, nonpublic information](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/materialinsiderinformation.asp). That's a high legal bar, which is one reason there haven't yet been any prosecutions under the STOCK Act.\n\nAt the time of this question, each politician's year-to-date return exceeded that of Bill Ackman, whose funds since their inception have [outperformed](https://www.investinassets.net/p/how-bill-ackman-beats-the-market) the market. \n\nIn the 2024 version of this question, the professional investor [failed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30622/will-the-2024-return-of-professional-investor-howard-marks-beat-the-return-of-any-of-the-politicans-tracked-by-quiver-quantitative/) to beat any of the politicians." }, { "id": 40407, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the S&P 500 in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the S&P 500 in 2025?", "slug": "will-nancy-pelosis-stock-portfolio-beat-the-sp-500-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-17T12:24:01.539741Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T12:30:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T15:15:04.609183Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-17T12:34:21.120641Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T12:30:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39977, "title": "Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-17T12:24:01.540136Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T12:30:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T12:30:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T12:30:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "InsiderFinance Wire:[ Is Nancy Pelosi the greatest investor of all time?](https://wire.insiderfinance.io/is-nancy-pelosi-the-greatest-investor-of-all-time-97e96b41e0cf) by Michael Schwartz\n\n> After four decades in this business, from managing portfolios to sitting in endless macroeconomic meetings, I’ve seen just about every kind of investor come and go. Some are technical wizards, others are gut-driven gamblers. But every once in a while, someone comes along who captures the imagination of the retail crowd and the suspicion of professionals alike. In recent years, Nancy Pelosi has become that figure. \n\nWhile in previous years Pelosi has won handily (see Metaculus's 2024 question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30619/will-nancy-pelosis-stock-portfolio-beat-the-sp-500-in-2024/)) as of October 17, 2025, Nancy Pelosi's portfolio had a year-to-date return of +7.14% according to the resolution source, while the S\\&P 500 had a year-to-date return of +12.7%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after the close of trading on the final trading day of December 2025, the 12-month total return of Nancy Pelosi's portfolio as reported by Quiver Quantitative exceeds the 12-month return of the S\\&P 500 as reported by Yahoo Finance.\n\nTo access Nancy Pelosi's return go to Quiver Strategies [here](https://www.quiverquant.com/strategies/s/Nancy%20Pelosi/). The resolution value will be the Total Return displayed for the 12-month period from the final trading day of 2024 to the final trading day of 2025.\n\nTo find out the return of the S\\&P 500, go to Yahoo Finance [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). Divide the closing price of the S\\&P 500 on the final trading day of December by the \"Adj Close\" price shown for December 31, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761232493.809576, "end_time": 1761406313.876, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761232493.809576, "end_time": 1761406313.876, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.5432105913536474 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "InsiderFinance Wire:[ Is Nancy Pelosi the greatest investor of all time?](https://wire.insiderfinance.io/is-nancy-pelosi-the-greatest-investor-of-all-time-97e96b41e0cf) by Michael Schwartz\n\n> After four decades in this business, from managing portfolios to sitting in endless macroeconomic meetings, I’ve seen just about every kind of investor come and go. Some are technical wizards, others are gut-driven gamblers. But every once in a while, someone comes along who captures the imagination of the retail crowd and the suspicion of professionals alike. In recent years, Nancy Pelosi has become that figure. \n\nWhile in previous years Pelosi has won handily (see Metaculus's 2024 question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30619/will-nancy-pelosis-stock-portfolio-beat-the-sp-500-in-2024/)) as of October 17, 2025, Nancy Pelosi's portfolio had a year-to-date return of +7.14% according to the resolution source, while the S\\&P 500 had a year-to-date return of +12.7%." }, { "id": 40406, "title": "Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?", "url_title": "Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?", "slug": "will-the-eu-impose-a-dma-fine-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-17T12:18:49.164713Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T18:15:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:53.866060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-17T18:15:16.518913Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-20T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T02:17:16.728758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T02:17:16.728758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39976, "title": "Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-17T12:18:49.165278Z", "open_time": "2025-10-20T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-15T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Digital Markets Act (DMA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act) is a European Union law that aims to curb anti-competitive behavior by major online platforms designated as gatekeepers; as of October 2025 [these are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act#Identified_gatekeepers) Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance. The DMA took effect during May 2023 and began full enforcement in March 2024. It empowers the European Commission to investigate violations, prohibit certain practices (like self-preferencing or restricting third-party app stores), and to impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover, or 20% for repeat offenses.\n\nIn 2025, the Commission escalated enforcement. In March 2025, it opened non-compliance proceedings against several gatekeepers, and in April 2025 [issued the first fines](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1085) for DMA breaches: €500 million to Apple and €200 million to Meta. As of October 2025, preliminary findings remain open against [Alphabet](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-likely-be-hit-with-second-eu-antitrust-fine-sources-say-2025-09-25/), with possible final decisions expected later in the year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, the European Commission officially imposes a Digital Markets Act fine against any designated gatekeeper.", "fine_print": "Reductions, appeals, or suspensions after the initial announcement will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 40406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761351594.372971, "end_time": 1761599373.597, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761351594.372971, "end_time": 1761599373.597, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49393129897468724 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4968759602419064, 0.3235495858073233, 1.0635890019327106, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5958909870666369, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8275480854900669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.2788626053611618, 0.0, 1.2803846877471003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5110884810649166, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.07555473386203065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4402597824713817, 0.02075297689962095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6646627317794116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Digital Markets Act (DMA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act) is a European Union law that aims to curb anti-competitive behavior by major online platforms designated as gatekeepers; as of October 2025 [these are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act#Identified_gatekeepers) Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance. The DMA took effect during May 2023 and began full enforcement in March 2024. It empowers the European Commission to investigate violations, prohibit certain practices (like self-preferencing or restricting third-party app stores), and to impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover, or 20% for repeat offenses.\n\nIn 2025, the Commission escalated enforcement. In March 2025, it opened non-compliance proceedings against several gatekeepers, and in April 2025 [issued the first fines](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1085) for DMA breaches: €500 million to Apple and €200 million to Meta. As of October 2025, preliminary findings remain open against [Alphabet](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-likely-be-hit-with-second-eu-antitrust-fine-sources-say-2025-09-25/), with possible final decisions expected later in the year." }, { "id": 40397, "title": "Will Amsterdam complete more than 52,000 new homes by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will Amsterdam complete > 52,000 new homes by end 2025?", "url_title": "Will Amsterdam complete > 52,000 new homes by end 2025?", "slug": "will-amsterdam-complete-52000-new-homes-by-end-2025", "author_id": 278699, "author_username": "dragostt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-16T12:51:38.175924Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T12:51:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T12:52:21.545904Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-16T12:52:21.524128Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T13:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T12:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 39956, "title": "Will Amsterdam complete more than 52,000 new homes by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-16T12:51:38.176288Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T12:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-21T12:51:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-21T12:51:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T13:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Amsterdam has committed to an ambitious housing plan](https://www.amsterdam.nl/en/policy/urban-development/construction/) to tackle shortages and affordability issues, aiming to deliver around 52,500 new homes by the end of 2025. However, the pace of construction faces challenges: labour shortages, rising building costs, and grid capacity limitations. Monitoring progress against the target is a key test of the city’s ability to deliver on its housing promises.\n\n\n\nYou can start by exploring the [data here](https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/81955ENG/table).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as “Yes” if the number of newly built “housing function” buildings in Amsterdam — as reported by [CBS StatLine in the dataset](https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/81955ENG/table) *“Dwellings and non-residential stock, 2012–2025”* — exceeds 52,000cumulative new constructions as of 31 December 2025.\n\nOtherwise, it will resolve as “No.”", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40397, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Amsterdam has committed to an ambitious housing plan](https://www.amsterdam.nl/en/policy/urban-development/construction/) to tackle shortages and affordability issues, aiming to deliver around 52,500 new homes by the end of 2025. However, the pace of construction faces challenges: labour shortages, rising building costs, and grid capacity limitations. Monitoring progress against the target is a key test of the city’s ability to deliver on its housing promises.\n\n\n\nYou can start by exploring the [data here](https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/81955ENG/table)." }, { "id": 40392, "title": "Will the total number of passenger at Schiphol Airport exceed 69 million in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Schiphol Airport handle more than 69 million passengers in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Schiphol Airport handle more than 69 million passengers in 2025?", "slug": "will-schiphol-airport-handle-more-than-69-million-passengers-in-2025", "author_id": 278699, "author_username": "dragostt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-15T14:21:59.707308Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T14:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T14:23:01.560932Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-15T14:23:01.536594Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T14:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 39945, "title": "Will the total number of passenger at Schiphol Airport exceed 69 million in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-15T14:21:59.707784Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T14:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-20T14:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-20T14:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Amsterdam Schiphol is among Europe’s busiest airports, central to Dutch business and tourism. After the pandemic slump, passenger traffic has rebounded strongly. In 2024, annual passenger numbers were just under 67 million. The key uncertainty now is whether demand in 2025 will push the airport above the 69 million mark, despite capacity constraints, staffing challenges, and climate-related policy debates.\n\nA good place to start the analysis is the airport's official [traffic & transport statistics](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/schiphol-group/transport-and-traffic-statistics/) webpage. ", "resolution_criteria": "“Yes” if Schiphol reports total passenger numbers for 2025 greater than 69,000,000, per its official [traffic & transport statistics](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/schiphol-group/transport-and-traffic-statistics/). Otherwise, “No.”", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40392, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amsterdam Schiphol is among Europe’s busiest airports, central to Dutch business and tourism. After the pandemic slump, passenger traffic has rebounded strongly. In 2024, annual passenger numbers were just under 67 million. The key uncertainty now is whether demand in 2025 will push the airport above the 69 million mark, despite capacity constraints, staffing challenges, and climate-related policy debates.\n\nA good place to start the analysis is the airport's official [traffic & transport statistics](https://www.schiphol.nl/en/schiphol-group/transport-and-traffic-statistics/) webpage. " }, { "id": 40391, "title": "How confident are you that Amsterdam will exceed 22 million hotel overnight stays in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Amsterdam record 22 million or more hotel overnight stays in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Amsterdam record 22 million or more hotel overnight stays in 2025?", "slug": "will-amsterdam-record-22-million-or-more-hotel-overnight-stays-in-2025", "author_id": 278699, "author_username": "dragostt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-15T14:00:05.741989Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T14:25:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T14:25:29.594509Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-15T14:25:29.571860Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T14:25:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32836, "name": "Dragos's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "updaters", "description": "[I started](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dragos-tomescu/) The Updaters as a community for curious individuals interested in exploring the future together. We create forecasts, share our reasoning, and learn from one another. \n\nMembers forecast on real-world topics such as economics, business, technology, society, and culture, discussing their reasoning and thought processes. The focus is on collective improvement through forecasting, friendly competition, and sharing feedback.\n\nFrom time to time, we'll meet (online) for some knowledge-sharing sessions and to build best practices. ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 39944, "title": "How confident are you that Amsterdam will exceed 22 million hotel overnight stays in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-15T14:00:05.742485Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T14:25:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-20T14:25:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-20T14:25:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to CBS StatLine, hotels recorded 21.3 million overnight stays in 2024 — well above pre-pandemic levels.\n\nBut will the city cross another milestone this year?\n\n\n\nYou can start by exploring the data at the [CBS StatLine: Hotels; guests, overnight stays, country of residence, region (table 82061ENG)](https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/82061ENG/table?searchKeywords=amsterdam)", "resolution_criteria": "“Yes” if the CBS StatLine table [82061ENG](https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/82061ENG/table?searchKeywords=amsterdam) shows ≥ 22,000 × 1,000 = 22 million overnight stays (“Overnight stays – All countries”) for Amsterdam in the calendar year 2025.\nOtherwise, “No.”\n\n*Source:* Statistics Netherlands (CBS), *Hotels; guests, overnight stays, country of residence, region (82061ENG)*. Note that figures are in thousands of overnight stays.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to CBS StatLine, hotels recorded 21.3 million overnight stays in 2024 — well above pre-pandemic levels.\n\nBut will the city cross another milestone this year?\n\n\n\nYou can start by exploring the data at the [CBS StatLine: Hotels; guests, overnight stays, country of residence, region (table 82061ENG)](https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/en/dataset/82061ENG/table?searchKeywords=amsterdam)" }, { "id": 40390, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by February 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by February 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-february-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-15T13:40:30.342246Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T17:32:22.543575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-15T14:03:45.651619Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T01:57:43.142412Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39943, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-15T13:40:30.342672Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T17:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T17:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America after October 15, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant organized resistance to their control from within the government or military has ceased, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 40390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761339462.917, "end_time": 1761710713.667, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761339462.917, "end_time": 1761710713.667, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.3778627093886146 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 40385, "title": "Will the current ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas hold by the time of our next meeting, October 28, 2025 12pm?", "short_title": "Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Holding until 10/28", "url_title": "Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Holding until 10/28", "slug": "israel-hamas-ceasefire-holding-until-1028", "author_id": 212342, "author_username": "grace_y_yang", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-14T20:20:55.252792Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T16:06:28.385911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-14T20:21:51.160990Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", 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"quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39939, "title": "Will the current ceasefire declared between Israel and Hamas hold by the time of our next meeting, October 28, 2025 12pm?", "created_at": "2025-10-14T20:20:55.253265Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-19T20:20:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-19T20:20:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:19:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a long-standing and deeply rooted struggle over land, resources, and national identity, dating back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The conflict has been marked by several major wars, uprisings (intifadas), and periods of intense violence.\n\nHamas, a Palestinian Islamist militant group that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007, has been a key protagonist in the conflict with Israel. The group's refusal to recognize Israel's right to exist has been a major obstacle to a lasting peace. Israel, in turn, has maintained a strict blockade of the Gaza Strip, citing security concerns.\n\nThe most recent major escalation began on October 7, 2023, with a large-scale attack by Hamas on southern Israel. This triggered a prolonged and devastating war in Gaza. Throughout this conflict, there have been several attempts at ceasefires, often with the following key elements:\n\n* **Phased Approach:** Ceasefires are typically structured in multiple stages, with each phase having specific and verifiable actions to be taken by both sides.\n* **Hostage and Prisoner Exchanges:** A central component of recent negotiations has been the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.\n* **Humanitarian Aid:** Agreements often include provisions for a significant increase in the amount of humanitarian aid, including food, water, medicine, and fuel, allowed into Gaza.\n* **Withdrawal of Forces:** Ceasefire deals usually stipulate a partial or full withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas of Gaza.\n* **International Mediation:** The involvement of third-party mediators, most notably the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, has been crucial in brokering and attempting to sustain these agreements.\n\nThe success or failure of these ceasefires is often influenced by several factors:\n\n* **Lack of Trust:** Deep-seated mistrust between the warring parties makes it difficult to achieve and maintain agreements.\n* **Domestic Political Pressures:** The leaders of both Israel and Hamas face internal pressures that can complicate their ability to make concessions.\n* **Role of External Actors:** The level of engagement and pressure from international and regional powers can significantly impact the durability of a ceasefire.\n* **Unresolved Core Issues:** The underlying issues of the conflict, such as the status of Jerusalem, Israeli settlements, and Palestinian statehood, remain unresolved and can easily reignite violence.\n\nGiven this context, any assessment of the current ceasefire's durability must consider not only the immediate actions of the belligerents but also the broader political landscape and the commitment of the international community to a lasting peace.\n\n\n\n\\[Background provided by Google Gemini 2.5 Pro]", "resolution_criteria": "To resolve this question, we will consult leading international news agencies on the specified date and time. The ceasefire will be considered \"holding\" if reporting indicates a substantial absence of major hostilities and continued adherence to the agreement's core terms by both Israel and Hamas.\n\n\n\n#### **Primary Adjudication Sources**\n\nThe resolution will be determined based on the consensus of reporting from the following credible, international news organizations known for their on-the-ground presence and standards of impartiality:\n\n* **Primary:** **Associated Press (AP)** and **Reuters**\n* **Secondary/Confirmatory:** **BBC News**\n\n\n\n#### **Conditions for a \"Holding\" Resolution :**\n\nThe ceasefire will be considered to be holding if reports from the primary sources on October 28, 2025, indicate that the following conditions are substantially met:\n\n* **Cessation of Hostilities:** There should be no major military operations, including rocket fire from Gaza into Israel and Israeli airstrikes or ground incursions into Gaza. Isolated, minor incidents may not necessarily signify a breakdown, but a significant exchange of fire would indicate the ceasefire has failed.\n* **Adherence to Core Terms:** Both parties must be actively implementing the key provisions of the agreement. Based on recent ceasefire frameworks, this would likely include:\n * **For Hamas:** The verified release of all agreed-upon hostages, both living and the remains of those deceased.\n * **For Israel:** The release of a specified number of Palestinian prisoners, a significant and sustained increase in the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from designated areas within Gaza.\n* **Functioning of Monitoring Mechanisms:** Any established third-party mechanisms for overseeing the ceasefire, likely involving countries like the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, should be operational and actively engaged in resolving any disputes that arise.\n* **Sustained Diplomatic Engagement:** Continued talks and negotiations between the parties, facilitated by international mediators, to address unresolved issues and move towards a more permanent resolution would be a strong indicator of the ceasefire's viability.\n* **Absence of Widespread Unrest and Violence:** A significant escalation of violence in other areas, such as the West Bank or East Jerusalem, could undermine the ceasefire in Gaza. Relative calm in these regions is a positive indicator.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761235577.478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761235577.478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.95 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a long-standing and deeply rooted struggle over land, resources, and national identity, dating back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The conflict has been marked by several major wars, uprisings (intifadas), and periods of intense violence.\n\nHamas, a Palestinian Islamist militant group that has governed the Gaza Strip since 2007, has been a key protagonist in the conflict with Israel. The group's refusal to recognize Israel's right to exist has been a major obstacle to a lasting peace. Israel, in turn, has maintained a strict blockade of the Gaza Strip, citing security concerns.\n\nThe most recent major escalation began on October 7, 2023, with a large-scale attack by Hamas on southern Israel. This triggered a prolonged and devastating war in Gaza. Throughout this conflict, there have been several attempts at ceasefires, often with the following key elements:\n\n* **Phased Approach:** Ceasefires are typically structured in multiple stages, with each phase having specific and verifiable actions to be taken by both sides.\n* **Hostage and Prisoner Exchanges:** A central component of recent negotiations has been the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.\n* **Humanitarian Aid:** Agreements often include provisions for a significant increase in the amount of humanitarian aid, including food, water, medicine, and fuel, allowed into Gaza.\n* **Withdrawal of Forces:** Ceasefire deals usually stipulate a partial or full withdrawal of Israeli troops from populated areas of Gaza.\n* **International Mediation:** The involvement of third-party mediators, most notably the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, has been crucial in brokering and attempting to sustain these agreements.\n\nThe success or failure of these ceasefires is often influenced by several factors:\n\n* **Lack of Trust:** Deep-seated mistrust between the warring parties makes it difficult to achieve and maintain agreements.\n* **Domestic Political Pressures:** The leaders of both Israel and Hamas face internal pressures that can complicate their ability to make concessions.\n* **Role of External Actors:** The level of engagement and pressure from international and regional powers can significantly impact the durability of a ceasefire.\n* **Unresolved Core Issues:** The underlying issues of the conflict, such as the status of Jerusalem, Israeli settlements, and Palestinian statehood, remain unresolved and can easily reignite violence.\n\nGiven this context, any assessment of the current ceasefire's durability must consider not only the immediate actions of the belligerents but also the broader political landscape and the commitment of the international community to a lasting peace.\n\n\n\n\\[Background provided by Google Gemini 2.5 Pro]" } ] }
