Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api
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It's ticker is NEM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:14) is 89.76. You can find more information about Newmont Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NEM\n\nNewmont Corporation engages in the production and exploration of gold properties. It also explores for copper, silver, zinc, lead, and other metals. The company has operations and/or assets in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ecuador, Fiji, and Ghana, and internationally. Newmont Corporation was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NEM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NEM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is NOC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:00) is 548.97. You can find more information about Northrop Grumman Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOC\n\nNorthrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, the Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The company's Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, and surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. 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The company's Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. Northrop Grumman Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NOC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NOC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is NOC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:00) is 548.97. You can find more information about Northrop Grumman Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOC\n\nNorthrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, the Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The company's Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, and surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, integrates, and produces strategic deterrent systems, tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions; and provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. This segment also offers strategic missiles; integrated all-domain command and control systems; precision strike weapons; tactical solid rocket motors, and high speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems; high-performance gun systems, ammunition, precision munitions, and advanced fuzes; and aircraft and mission systems logistics support, sustainment, operation, and modernization. The company's Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. Northrop Grumman Corporation was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NOC\"}}`" }, { "id": 41042, "title": "Will EL's market close price on 2025-12-19 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-09?", "short_title": "EL's close price rises?", "url_title": "EL's close price rises?", "slug": "els-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:19.872661Z", "published_at": "2025-12-09T01:00:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T02:31:00.240675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:32:37.344049Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:30:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:30:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T23:41:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-09T01:00:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40747, "title": "Will EL's market close price on 2025-12-19 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-09?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:19.873111Z", "open_time": "2025-12-09T01:00:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T02:30:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T02:30:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T23:41:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:30:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:30:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:07) is 105.13. You can find more information about The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EL\n\nThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under the La Mer, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, KILIAN PARIS, BALMAIN Beauty, Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, The Ordinary, Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, Bumble and bumble, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, Smashbox, Darphin Paris, Lab Series, NIOD, Aramis, and GLAMGLOW brands. It sells its products through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty multi retailers, online pure players, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and top-tier salons and spas, as well as direct-to-consumer businesses across freestanding stores, and brand websites and third-party online platforms. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "EL's close price rises?", "post_id": 41042, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765247438.355634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.511 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765247438.355634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.511 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.528921522633745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 10.0, 5.0, 5.0, 22.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:07) is 105.13. You can find more information about The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EL\n\nThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair colour products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under the La Mer, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, KILIAN PARIS, BALMAIN Beauty, Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, The Ordinary, Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, Bumble and bumble, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, Smashbox, Darphin Paris, Lab Series, NIOD, Aramis, and GLAMGLOW brands. It sells its products through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty multi retailers, online pure players, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and top-tier salons and spas, as well as direct-to-consumer businesses across freestanding stores, and brand websites and third-party online platforms. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41041, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:17.168879Z", "published_at": "2025-12-09T00:39:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T02:10:00.220077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:32:30.984642Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:09:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:09:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T02:37:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-09T00:39:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40746, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:17.169304Z", "open_time": "2025-12-09T00:39:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T02:09:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T02:09:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T02:37:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:09:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:09:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). If the community prediction on 2025-12-21 02:37:47 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41041, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765245859.010281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765245859.010281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.3382993869731802 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 41040, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:14.324139Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T22:40:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T00:11:00.159675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:32:24.192346Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:10:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:10:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T11:29:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:40:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40745, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:14.324545Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:40:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T00:10:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T00:10:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T11:29:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:10:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:10:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514). If the community prediction on 2025-12-21 11:29:13 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41040, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765236562.720854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765236562.720854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.314400224719101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 41039, "title": "Will MPC's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "MPC's close price rises?", "url_title": "MPC's close price rises?", "slug": "mpcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:11.565290Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T22:19:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T23:50:00.184371Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:32:17.757009Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:49:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:49:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T20:23:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:19:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40744, "title": "Will MPC's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:11.565700Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:19:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T23:49:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T23:49:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T20:23:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:49:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:49:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:16) is 190.53. You can find more information about Marathon Petroleum Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC\n\nMarathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MPC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of MPC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "MPC's close price rises?", "post_id": 41039, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765235520.813699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765235520.813699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5445281787001778 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 4.0, 10.0, 17.0, 6.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:16) is 190.53. You can find more information about Marathon Petroleum Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MPC\n\nMarathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MPC\"}}`" }, { "id": 41038, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-presidential-impoundment-authority-expanded-before-november-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:08.598679Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T21:21:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T22:52:00.384629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:32:10.793955Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:51:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:51:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T23:52:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T21:21:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40743, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:08.599130Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T21:21:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T22:51:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T22:51:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T23:52:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:51:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:51:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38166\n- Original question title: Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, limitations on presidential impoundment authority (as first set out in the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and as of its current state on January 20, 2025) have been legally rescinded or modified in whole or in part. For the purposes of this question, at least one of the following must occur to count as impoundment authority having been \"legally rescinded or modified\", and must have the effect of granting the President of the United States greater impoundment authority:\n> \n> * The US Supreme Court issues a decision on the merits of presidential impoundment authority\n> * The US Supreme Court declines to hear the merits of an impoundment authority case, letting a lower court ruling stand, and Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject\n> * A bill is enacted\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * A Supreme Court decision on procedural issues or tangential topics is not sufficient on its own, only a decision on the merits of impoundment authority counts.\n> * The question will only resolve as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued a final ruling on the matter, effectively ending legal challenges to the restriction. For example, if the Court denies a request to block a certain usage of presidential impoundment authority before it holds a full hearing on the merits, that does not count as a final judgment and will not resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> * Metaculus will rely on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits or it is unclear whether a decision or law has expanded presidential impoundment authority.\n> * A narrow court decision finding that a specific act of alleged presidential impoundment is compliant with the law is not sufficient, a court decision must rescind or modify current law in whole or in part.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [According to the Government Accountability Office](https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-impoundment-control-act-and-what-gaos-role) (GAO):\n> \n> > When the President (or any officer or employee of the executive branch), through action or inaction, delays or withholds enacted funding, that is an impoundment.. . .The \\[Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974] provides the only legal mechanism for the President to delay or withhold funding, not cancel it. This law requires that the President notify Congress before delaying or withholding funds. That notification is called a “special message” and must contain information such as the reason for the impoundment along with the estimated fiscal, economic, and budgetary effects.. . .Special messages have been sent from the President to Congress many times. The ICA was enacted by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to spend certain federal funds. Since then, there have been 243 special messages from presidents of both parties to impound funds.\n> \n> GAO is responsible for reviewing the president's special messages for legal compliance, and also monitors for failures to report impoundment and can [sue for release of funds](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) if Congress has not approved a rescission of funds within the 45 day deadline.\n> \n> GAO has issued a number of opinions on impoundment authority in recent years. In January 2020 GAO [found that the Office of Management and Budget violated the act](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-331564) when it froze military aid to Ukraine, an episode that figured in President Trump’s first impeachment. More recently, on May 22, 2025 GAO [concluded that the Trump administration again violated the statute](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-337137) by blocking billions in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funds. During 2024, GAO [issued a decision](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-335747) finding that Biden's border wall spending, following his 2021 [proclamation](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/proclamation-termination-of-emergency-with-respect-to-southern-border-of-united-states-and-redirection-of-funds-diverted-to-border-wall-construction/) that construction would be paused, did not violate impoundment authority. However, some congressional Republicans criticized the Biden administration for taking steps that \"[dodge the law](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/gao-confirms-biden-administration-spends-border-security-funds-on-environmental-agenda)\".\n> \n> During President Trump's second term impoundment authority has become a key source of political dispute as the administration attempts to drastically cut spending. The Trump administration has [taken the position](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment) that the president has authority over spending and that the ICA is unconstitutional. In a 2023 [campaign video](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-using-impoundment-to-cut-waste-stop-inflation-and-crush-the-deep-state), Trump said:\n> \n> > For 200 years under our system of government, it was undisputed that the president had the constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as \"impoundment authority\".. . .Thomas Jefferson famously used this power, as did many other presidents, until it was wrongfully curtailed by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 -- not a very good act -- this disaster of a law is clearly unconstitutional, a blatant violation of the separation of powers. When I return to the White House I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it.\n> \n> Senator Mike Lee and Representative Andrew Clyde re-introduced [companion](https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-reintroduces-impoundment-control-act-repeal) [bills](https://clyde.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx) in February 2025 to repeal the ICA. A number of legal challenges to alleged cases of impoundment conducted by the Trump administration are [working their way through the courts](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38166,\"question_id\":37460,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38166). If the community prediction on 2025-12-20 23:52:38 is higher than 35.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41038, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765233568.577623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.495 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765233568.577623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.495 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4293256704980842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38166\n- Original question title: Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, limitations on presidential impoundment authority (as first set out in the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and as of its current state on January 20, 2025) have been legally rescinded or modified in whole or in part. For the purposes of this question, at least one of the following must occur to count as impoundment authority having been \"legally rescinded or modified\", and must have the effect of granting the President of the United States greater impoundment authority:\n> \n> * The US Supreme Court issues a decision on the merits of presidential impoundment authority\n> * The US Supreme Court declines to hear the merits of an impoundment authority case, letting a lower court ruling stand, and Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject\n> * A bill is enacted\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * A Supreme Court decision on procedural issues or tangential topics is not sufficient on its own, only a decision on the merits of impoundment authority counts.\n> * The question will only resolve as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued a final ruling on the matter, effectively ending legal challenges to the restriction. For example, if the Court denies a request to block a certain usage of presidential impoundment authority before it holds a full hearing on the merits, that does not count as a final judgment and will not resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> * Metaculus will rely on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits or it is unclear whether a decision or law has expanded presidential impoundment authority.\n> * A narrow court decision finding that a specific act of alleged presidential impoundment is compliant with the law is not sufficient, a court decision must rescind or modify current law in whole or in part.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [According to the Government Accountability Office](https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-impoundment-control-act-and-what-gaos-role) (GAO):\n> \n> > When the President (or any officer or employee of the executive branch), through action or inaction, delays or withholds enacted funding, that is an impoundment.. . .The \\[Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974] provides the only legal mechanism for the President to delay or withhold funding, not cancel it. This law requires that the President notify Congress before delaying or withholding funds. That notification is called a “special message” and must contain information such as the reason for the impoundment along with the estimated fiscal, economic, and budgetary effects.. . .Special messages have been sent from the President to Congress many times. The ICA was enacted by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to spend certain federal funds. Since then, there have been 243 special messages from presidents of both parties to impound funds.\n> \n> GAO is responsible for reviewing the president's special messages for legal compliance, and also monitors for failures to report impoundment and can [sue for release of funds](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) if Congress has not approved a rescission of funds within the 45 day deadline.\n> \n> GAO has issued a number of opinions on impoundment authority in recent years. In January 2020 GAO [found that the Office of Management and Budget violated the act](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-331564) when it froze military aid to Ukraine, an episode that figured in President Trump’s first impeachment. More recently, on May 22, 2025 GAO [concluded that the Trump administration again violated the statute](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-337137) by blocking billions in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funds. During 2024, GAO [issued a decision](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-335747) finding that Biden's border wall spending, following his 2021 [proclamation](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/proclamation-termination-of-emergency-with-respect-to-southern-border-of-united-states-and-redirection-of-funds-diverted-to-border-wall-construction/) that construction would be paused, did not violate impoundment authority. However, some congressional Republicans criticized the Biden administration for taking steps that \"[dodge the law](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/gao-confirms-biden-administration-spends-border-security-funds-on-environmental-agenda)\".\n> \n> During President Trump's second term impoundment authority has become a key source of political dispute as the administration attempts to drastically cut spending. The Trump administration has [taken the position](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment) that the president has authority over spending and that the ICA is unconstitutional. In a 2023 [campaign video](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-using-impoundment-to-cut-waste-stop-inflation-and-crush-the-deep-state), Trump said:\n> \n> > For 200 years under our system of government, it was undisputed that the president had the constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as \"impoundment authority\".. . .Thomas Jefferson famously used this power, as did many other presidents, until it was wrongfully curtailed by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 -- not a very good act -- this disaster of a law is clearly unconstitutional, a blatant violation of the separation of powers. When I return to the White House I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it.\n> \n> Senator Mike Lee and Representative Andrew Clyde re-introduced [companion](https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-reintroduces-impoundment-control-act-repeal) [bills](https://clyde.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx) in February 2025 to repeal the ICA. A number of legal challenges to alleged cases of impoundment conducted by the Trump administration are [working their way through the courts](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38166,\"question_id\":37460,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" }, { "id": 41037, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-democrats-favored-to-win-2028-us-election-on-kalshi", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:05.866361Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T20:59:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T22:30:00.186734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:32:04.102522Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:29:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:29:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T10:35:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T20:59:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40742, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:05.866761Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T20:59:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T22:29:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T22:29:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T10:35:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:29:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T22:29:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31336\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the median price for \"Democratic\" is higher than the median price for \"Republican\" on the Kalshi market [*Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?*](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresparty/party-winning-presidency), for the dates December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, inclusive.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve based on the CSV downloaded from the market page. The median price will be calculated over all timestamps that belong to the week in question.\n> * If the medians are equal, this question will resolve as **No**.\n> * If, for more than 3 days of the relevant week, the market is unavailable or has been halted, this question will be **annulled.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Kalshi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi) is, as of the writing of this question, the largest prediction market licensed by the CFTC. Prediction markets [exploded in popularity](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/) during the US elections, with Kalshi seeing more than $200 million in trading on its election outcome market. Research [has shown](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) that prediction markets are superior to polls for predicting the outcomes of elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31336,\"question_id\":30966,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31336). If the community prediction on 2025-12-21 10:35:21 is higher than 80.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?\"?", "post_id": 41037, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765232256.95768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765232256.95768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.45320930232558154 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 17.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31336\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the median price for \"Democratic\" is higher than the median price for \"Republican\" on the Kalshi market [*Which party will win the 2028 Presidential Election?*](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxpresparty/party-winning-presidency), for the dates December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, inclusive.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve based on the CSV downloaded from the market page. The median price will be calculated over all timestamps that belong to the week in question.\n> * If the medians are equal, this question will resolve as **No**.\n> * If, for more than 3 days of the relevant week, the market is unavailable or has been halted, this question will be **annulled.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Kalshi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi) is, as of the writing of this question, the largest prediction market licensed by the CFTC. Prediction markets [exploded in popularity](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/cryptoverse-us-election-punters-play-prediction-markets-2024-11-04/) during the US elections, with Kalshi seeing more than $200 million in trading on its election outcome market. Research [has shown](https://researchdmr.com/RothschildPOQ2009.pdf) that prediction markets are superior to polls for predicting the outcomes of elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31336,\"question_id\":30966,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`" }, { "id": 41035, "title": "Will FTV's market close price on 2025-12-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "FTV's close price rises?", "url_title": "FTV's close price rises?", "slug": "ftvs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:00.361378Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T18:50:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T20:21:00.159800Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:31:50.675376Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T20:20:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T20:20:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-17T10:21:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T18:50:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40740, "title": "Will FTV's market close price on 2025-12-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:29:00.361797Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T18:50:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T20:20:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T20:20:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-17T10:21:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T20:20:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T20:20:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fortive Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FTV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:09) is 53.75. You can find more information about Fortive Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTV\n\nFortive Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets products, software, and services in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through Intelligent Operating Solutions and Advanced Healthcare Solutions segments. The Intelligent Operating Solutions segment provides advanced instrumentation, software, and services, including electrical test and measurement, facility and asset lifecycle software applications, and connected worker safety and compliance solutions for manufacturing, process industries, healthcare, utilities and power, communications and electronics, and other industries. This segment markets its products and services under the ACCRUENT, FLUKE, GORDIAN, INDUSTRIAL SCIENTIFIC, INTELEX, PRUFTECHNIK, and SERVICECHANNEL brand names. 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It's ticker is FTV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:09) is 53.75. You can find more information about Fortive Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FTV\n\nFortive Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets products, software, and services in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through Intelligent Operating Solutions and Advanced Healthcare Solutions segments. The Intelligent Operating Solutions segment provides advanced instrumentation, software, and services, including electrical test and measurement, facility and asset lifecycle software applications, and connected worker safety and compliance solutions for manufacturing, process industries, healthcare, utilities and power, communications and electronics, and other industries. This segment markets its products and services under the ACCRUENT, FLUKE, GORDIAN, INDUSTRIAL SCIENTIFIC, INTELEX, PRUFTECHNIK, and SERVICECHANNEL brand names. 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It's ticker is XYZ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:10) is 61.11. You can find more information about Block, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYZ\n\nBlock, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, builds ecosystems focused on commerce and financial products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments: Square and Cash App. The Square segment offers commerce products for restaurants, appointments, retail, point of sale, online, online checkout, and invoices, as well as virtual terminals, risk and order managers, and payment and commerce application programming interfaces; managed payment services; software solutions; hardware products, such as registers, terminals, stands, and readers for contactless and chips; banking services consisting of lending, instant transfer, and checking and savings accounts; and full-service setup and support services. This segment also provides loyalty, marketing, team management, and payroll services; and gift cards. It also offers Square Handheld, a portable point-of sale device for transaction purposes. The Cash App segment offers financial tools, including peer-to-peer payments, bitcoin, and stock investment brokerage; Cash App Card, a debit card; direct deposit, cash boost, and tax preparation services; and Afterpay, a buy now, pay later platform. In addition, the company operates TIDAL, a platform for musicians and fans; TBD, an open developer platform focused on making the decentralized financial world accessible; Bitkey, a self-custody bitcoin wallet; and proto. The company was formerly known as Square, Inc. and changed its name to Block, Inc. in December 2021. 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It's ticker is XYZ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:10) is 61.11. You can find more information about Block, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYZ\n\nBlock, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, builds ecosystems focused on commerce and financial products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through two segments: Square and Cash App. The Square segment offers commerce products for restaurants, appointments, retail, point of sale, online, online checkout, and invoices, as well as virtual terminals, risk and order managers, and payment and commerce application programming interfaces; managed payment services; software solutions; hardware products, such as registers, terminals, stands, and readers for contactless and chips; banking services consisting of lending, instant transfer, and checking and savings accounts; and full-service setup and support services. This segment also provides loyalty, marketing, team management, and payroll services; and gift cards. It also offers Square Handheld, a portable point-of sale device for transaction purposes. The Cash App segment offers financial tools, including peer-to-peer payments, bitcoin, and stock investment brokerage; Cash App Card, a debit card; direct deposit, cash boost, and tax preparation services; and Afterpay, a buy now, pay later platform. In addition, the company operates TIDAL, a platform for musicians and fans; TBD, an open developer platform focused on making the decentralized financial world accessible; Bitkey, a self-custody bitcoin wallet; and proto. The company was formerly known as Square, Inc. and changed its name to Block, Inc. in December 2021. 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It's ticker is DVA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:06) is 117.39. You can find more information about DaVita Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DVA\n\nDaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure in the United States. The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related lab services in outpatient dialysis centers. It also offers outpatient, hospital inpatient, and home-based hemodialysis services; operates clinical laboratories that provide routine laboratory tests for dialysis and other physician-prescribed laboratory tests for ESRD patients; and management and administrative services to outpatient dialysis centers. In addition, the company offers integrated care and disease management services to patients in risk-based and other integrated care arrangements; clinical research programs; physician services; and comprehensive kidney care services. Further, it engages in the provision of inpatient dialysis services and related laboratory services; and transplant software business. The company was formerly known as DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc. and changed its name to DaVita Inc. in September 2016. DaVita Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DVA\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DVA. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is DVA. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:06) is 117.39. You can find more information about DaVita Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DVA\n\nDaVita Inc. provides kidney dialysis services for patients suffering from chronic kidney failure in the United States. The company operates kidney dialysis centers and provides related lab services in outpatient dialysis centers. It also offers outpatient, hospital inpatient, and home-based hemodialysis services; operates clinical laboratories that provide routine laboratory tests for dialysis and other physician-prescribed laboratory tests for ESRD patients; and management and administrative services to outpatient dialysis centers. In addition, the company offers integrated care and disease management services to patients in risk-based and other integrated care arrangements; clinical research programs; physician services; and comprehensive kidney care services. Further, it engages in the provision of inpatient dialysis services and related laboratory services; and transplant software business. The company was formerly known as DaVita HealthCare Partners Inc. and changed its name to DaVita Inc. in September 2016. DaVita Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DVA\"}}`" }, { "id": 41030, "title": "Will DIS's market close price on 2025-12-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "DIS's close price rises?", "url_title": "DIS's close price rises?", "slug": "diss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:28:46.647590Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T15:37:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T17:08:00.349705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:31:22.583041Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:07:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:07:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-17T17:26:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T15:37:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40735, "title": "Will DIS's market close price on 2025-12-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:28:46.647966Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T15:37:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T17:07:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T17:07:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-17T17:26:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:07:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:07:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Walt Disney Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DIS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:12) is 105.3. You can find more information about The Walt Disney Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS\n\nThe Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company in Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. It also provides direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, and Hulu; sports-related video streaming content through ESPN, ESPN on ABC, ESPN+ DTC, and Star; sale/licensing of film and episodic content to television and video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; DVD and Blu-ray discs, electronic home video licenses, and VOD rental services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney, as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii. Further, it licenses its intellectual property (IP) to a third party that owns and operates Tokyo Disney Resort; licenses trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games; operates a direct-to-home satellite distribution platform; sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DIS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DIS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "DIS's close price rises?", "post_id": 41030, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765213655.433687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765213655.433687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5309835606060608 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 7.0, 8.0, 18.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Walt Disney Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DIS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:27:12) is 105.3. You can find more information about The Walt Disney Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS\n\nThe Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company in Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in three segments: Entertainment, Sports, and Experiences. The company produces and distributes film and television content under the ABC Television Network, Disney, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brand television channels, as well as ABC television stations and A+E television networks; and produces original content under the Disney Branded Television, FX Productions, Lucasfilm, Marvel, National Geographic Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, 20th Television, and Walt Disney Pictures banners. It also provides direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, and Hulu; sports-related video streaming content through ESPN, ESPN on ABC, ESPN+ DTC, and Star; sale/licensing of film and episodic content to television and video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; DVD and Blu-ray discs, electronic home video licenses, and VOD rental services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort, Disneyland Resort, Disneyland Paris, Hong Kong Disneyland Resort, Shanghai Disney Resort, Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney, as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii. Further, it licenses its intellectual property (IP) to a third party that owns and operates Tokyo Disney Resort; licenses trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games; operates a direct-to-home satellite distribution platform; sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DIS\"}}`" }, { "id": 41027, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.40% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:28:38.326496Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T15:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T16:36:00.252518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:30:58.976232Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T12:38:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T15:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40732, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.40% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:28:38.326872Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T15:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T16:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-21T12:38:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:36:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 8.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.084}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). If the community prediction on 2025-12-21 12:38:38 is higher than 8.40%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41027, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765210780.036788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765210780.036788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23302943181818184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 8.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.084}}`" }, { "id": 41025, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-trump-to-invoke-insurrection-act-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:28:32.882829Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T14:09:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T15:40:00.165524Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:30:45.751674Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:39:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:39:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T17:47:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:09:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40730, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:28:32.883292Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:09:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T15:39:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T15:39:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T17:47:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:39:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:39:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512). If the community prediction on 2025-12-20 17:47:45 is higher than 9.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41025, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765206083.362843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765206083.362843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2799092883895132 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41019, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:25.900794Z", "published_at": "2025-12-09T08:00:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T09:31:00.221038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:29:47.428756Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T09:30:49Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T09:30:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:46:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-09T08:00:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40724, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:25.901206Z", "open_time": "2025-12-09T08:00:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T09:30:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T09:30:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:46:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T09:30:49Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T09:30:49Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514). If the community prediction on 2025-12-20 10:46:11 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41019, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765272204.513618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765272204.513618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3347275655430712 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 41016, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question \"Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-argentinas-yoy-inflation-below-30-for-december-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:17.747432Z", "published_at": "2025-12-09T06:11:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T07:42:00.223685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:29:27.290949Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T07:41:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T07:41:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T14:40:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-09T06:11:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40721, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question \"Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:17.747846Z", "open_time": "2025-12-09T06:11:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T07:41:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T07:41:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T14:40:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T07:41:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T07:41:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117\n- Original question title: Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n> \n> This question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n> \n> However, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n> \n> According to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117). If the community prediction on 2025-12-19 14:40:30 is higher than 55.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41016, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765264498.92126, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765264498.92126, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.44080093632958817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117\n- Original question title: Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n> \n> This question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n> \n> However, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n> \n> According to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 41012, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-a-new-war-kill-at-least-5000-people-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:06.893214Z", "published_at": "2025-12-09T00:51:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T02:22:00.169109Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:29:14.507892Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:21:32Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:21:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-17T08:43:36Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-09T00:51:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40717, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:06.893617Z", "open_time": "2025-12-09T00:51:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T02:21:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T02:21:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-17T08:43:36Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:21:32Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T02:21:32Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31273\n- Original question title: Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), either a new armed conflict or a substantial escalation of a previous conflict has resulted in at least 5,000 deaths within the calendar year 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * For a conflict to count it must have had fewer than 1,000 deaths in each of the calendar years 2023 and 2024.\n> * At least 5,000 deaths have to happen within 2025. If credible sources disagree about the number of deaths, Metaculus will use its best estimate based on the available information and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n> * Civil wars or conflicts between state armed forces and other armed groups (e.g., the [Mexican drug war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_drug_war)) will count. Terrorist attacks will not - at least one party in the conflict must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\n> * A conflict that has been overtly joined by at least one new state (including state military or militants from a new state) and takes place at a primarily different frontline will count as a separate conflict, even if a new state explicitly takes a side in an existing conflict. This includes states that have joined a conflict prior to 2025, as well as any that join during 2025. If the frontlines are primarily the same, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new state suffers at least 5,000 deaths in the conflict, when it had not suffered 1,000 deaths in the conflict previously. \"Overtly joined\" means that combatants from the country are clearly identifiable and, if they are members of the country's military, are acknowledged by that country to be involved in the conflict.\n> * In cases where the reporting is ambiguous or the situation is complex, Metaculus may make a determination, and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n> * In cases of ambiguity in the reporting of deaths, Metaculus might wait until January 31, 2026 to resolve this question. \n\nOriginal background: \n> The early 2020s saw an increase in armed conflicts around the world. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/) reports (visualized by OWID [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-type)) that each of 2021, 2022, and 2023 surpassed every year since 1989 in armed conflict deaths, with the exception of the [1994 Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31273,\"question_id\":30917,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31273). If the community prediction on 2025-12-17 08:43:36 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41012, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765245934.941559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.235 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765245934.941559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.235 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.765, 0.235 ], "means": [ 0.2984361788617887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31273\n- Original question title: Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), either a new armed conflict or a substantial escalation of a previous conflict has resulted in at least 5,000 deaths within the calendar year 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * For a conflict to count it must have had fewer than 1,000 deaths in each of the calendar years 2023 and 2024.\n> * At least 5,000 deaths have to happen within 2025. If credible sources disagree about the number of deaths, Metaculus will use its best estimate based on the available information and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n> * Civil wars or conflicts between state armed forces and other armed groups (e.g., the [Mexican drug war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_drug_war)) will count. Terrorist attacks will not - at least one party in the conflict must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\n> * A conflict that has been overtly joined by at least one new state (including state military or militants from a new state) and takes place at a primarily different frontline will count as a separate conflict, even if a new state explicitly takes a side in an existing conflict. This includes states that have joined a conflict prior to 2025, as well as any that join during 2025. If the frontlines are primarily the same, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new state suffers at least 5,000 deaths in the conflict, when it had not suffered 1,000 deaths in the conflict previously. \"Overtly joined\" means that combatants from the country are clearly identifiable and, if they are members of the country's military, are acknowledged by that country to be involved in the conflict.\n> * In cases where the reporting is ambiguous or the situation is complex, Metaculus may make a determination, and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n> * In cases of ambiguity in the reporting of deaths, Metaculus might wait until January 31, 2026 to resolve this question. \n\nOriginal background: \n> The early 2020s saw an increase in armed conflicts around the world. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/) reports (visualized by OWID [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-type)) that each of 2021, 2022, and 2023 surpassed every year since 1989 in armed conflict deaths, with the exception of the [1994 Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31273,\"question_id\":30917,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 41010, "title": "Will ORLY's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-09?", "short_title": "ORLY's close price rises?", "url_title": "ORLY's close price rises?", "slug": "orlys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:01.456158Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T23:34:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T01:05:00.420616Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:26:52.586918Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T09:38:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T23:34:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40715, "title": "Will ORLY's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-09?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:01.456570Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T23:34:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T09:38:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ORLY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:07:01) is 98.89. You can find more information about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORLY\n\nO'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also offers auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company provides enhanced services and programs consisting used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Further, it offers do-it-yourself and professional service for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. The company offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brands. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ORLY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ORLY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ORLY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41010, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765242020.224423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.533 ], "centers": [ 0.554 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765242020.224423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.533 ], "centers": [ 0.554 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44599999999999995, 0.554 ], "means": [ 0.5643148484848485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 7.0, 6.0, 16.0, 5.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ORLY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:07:01) is 98.89. You can find more information about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORLY\n\nO'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also offers auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company provides enhanced services and programs consisting used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Further, it offers do-it-yourself and professional service for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. The company offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brands. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ORLY\"}}`" }, { "id": 41009, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.40% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:58.728644Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T22:43:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T00:14:00.276908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:28:29.198731Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T21:09:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:43:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40714, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.40% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:58.729102Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:43:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T21:09:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 8.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.084}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). If the community prediction on 2025-12-19 21:09:28 is higher than 8.40%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41009, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765237204.812161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765237204.812161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23532073643410847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 8.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.084}}`" }, { "id": 41008, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:56.015376Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T21:54:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T23:25:00.151588Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:28:04.443872Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T20:24:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T21:54:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40713, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:56.015769Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T21:54:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T20:24:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). If the community prediction on 2025-12-16 20:24:11 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41008, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765234271.799421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765234271.799421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3520170037453182 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" } ] }