Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api
{ "count": 5510, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "previous": null, "results": [ { "id": 38850, "title": "Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?", "short_title": "Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?", "slug": "thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T08:20:39.465881Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T22:42:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:29:10.258437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T22:43:12.535600Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:16:04.497832Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:16:04.497832Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38163, "title": "Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T08:20:39.466319Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n\nAfter privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n\nAfter Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n\nIn June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38850, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n\nAfter privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n\nAfter Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n\nIn June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation." }, { "id": 38848, "title": "Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?", "short_title": "Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?", "slug": "thailand-military-coup-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T05:40:32.537772Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T14:00:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:51:26.495052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T14:00:50Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:16:04.497832Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:16:04.497832Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38162, "title": "Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T05:40:32.538216Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n\nIn June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n\nOn July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, the Royal Thai Armed Forces declare *all* of the following:\n\n* Martial law is in effect.\n* Parliament is suspended, dissolved or otherwise lacks authority.\n* The constitution is suspended, abrogated or is otherwise not in effect.", "fine_print": "To qualify for the criteria, the constitution does not have to fully suspended, partial suspension, such as the exclusion of certain sections will be sufficient.", "post_id": 38848, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n\nIn June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n\nOn July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in." }, { "id": 38843, "title": "Will any major AI company see their valuation fall before July 2026?", "short_title": "Will any major AI company see their valuation fall before July 2026?", "url_title": "Will any major AI company see their valuation fall before July 2026?", "slug": "will-any-major-ai-company-see-their-valuation-fall-before-july-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-09T15:15:17.497457Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-10T22:56:32.969714Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-09T15:15:22.239616Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38157, "title": "Will any major AI company see their valuation fall before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-09T15:15:17.497936Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The capabilities of AI technologies like Large Language Models (LLMs), text-to-video models and AI Agents have soared in recent times — and so too have the valuations of many major AI companies responsible for their development. Some of these major companies include: OpenAI ([\\$300bn](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/technology/openai-valuation-300-billion.html)), xAI ([\\$80bn](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/elon-musk-xai-raises-10-billion-in-debt-and-equity.html)), Anthropic ([\\$61.5bn](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-e-at-usd61-5b-post-money-valuation)) and Mistral AI ([\\$6.51bn](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/08/mistral-is-reportedly-in-talks-to-raise-1b/)).\n\nGary Marcus, whilst remaining skeptical of the idea that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as a near-term prospect, [predicted](https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1777904244932432320) that,\n\n> \\[...] OpenAI's \\$86B valuation will have declined by at least 20% \\[at the end of 2025].\n\nand furthermore [bet](https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1778080666741248447) \\$86 with a fellow user on X that this would be the case.\n\nHe [also predicted](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus) that, more generally:\n\n> 2025 could well be the year in which valuations for major AI companies start to fall. (Though, famously, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”)\n\nWhilst the odds (as of July 2025) may be against Marcus’ exact bet, it is not unreasonable to expect that the valuation of a major AI company could fall given the growing competition amongst AI companies to produce the best performing models whilst yielding little to no profit. Those who fail to keep up may find themselves quickly left behind.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the following companies sees its valuation fall after July 1, 2025 and before July 1, 2026. The list of relevant companies and their latest valuation as of July 1, 2025 is:\n\n* OpenAI: [\\$300bn](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/technology/openai-valuation-300-billion.html)\n* xAI: [\\$80bn](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/elon-musk-xai-raises-10-billion-in-debt-and-equity.html)\n* Anthropic: [\\$61.5bn](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-e-at-usd61-5b-post-money-valuation)\n* Mistral AI: [\\$6.51bn](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/08/mistral-is-reportedly-in-talks-to-raise-1b/)", "fine_print": "* The valuation will be determined according to the latest complete funding round if the company is private or according to its market capitalisation if it is public. Talks to raise money that haven't yet resulted in a signed agreement will not qualify.\n* The valuation does not need to fall relative to the July 2025 valuation. It could be that the valuation rose and then fell after July 1, 2025 and before July 1, 2026.", "post_id": 38843, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The capabilities of AI technologies like Large Language Models (LLMs), text-to-video models and AI Agents have soared in recent times — and so too have the valuations of many major AI companies responsible for their development. Some of these major companies include: OpenAI ([\\$300bn](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/technology/openai-valuation-300-billion.html)), xAI ([\\$80bn](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/01/elon-musk-xai-raises-10-billion-in-debt-and-equity.html)), Anthropic ([\\$61.5bn](https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-e-at-usd61-5b-post-money-valuation)) and Mistral AI ([\\$6.51bn](https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/08/mistral-is-reportedly-in-talks-to-raise-1b/)).\n\nGary Marcus, whilst remaining skeptical of the idea that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) as a near-term prospect, [predicted](https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1777904244932432320) that,\n\n> \\[...] OpenAI's \\$86B valuation will have declined by at least 20% \\[at the end of 2025].\n\nand furthermore [bet](https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1778080666741248447) \\$86 with a fellow user on X that this would be the case.\n\nHe [also predicted](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/25-ai-predictions-for-2025-from-marcus) that, more generally:\n\n> 2025 could well be the year in which valuations for major AI companies start to fall. (Though, famously, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”)\n\nWhilst the odds (as of July 2025) may be against Marcus’ exact bet, it is not unreasonable to expect that the valuation of a major AI company could fall given the growing competition amongst AI companies to produce the best performing models whilst yielding little to no profit. Those who fail to keep up may find themselves quickly left behind." }, { "id": 38840, "title": "WIll any single company sell at least 2,000 humanoid home robots over 5 feet tall before July 2029?", "short_title": "WIll a company sell at least 2k >5 ft. humanoid home robots before Jul 2029?", "url_title": "WIll a company sell at least 2k >5 ft. humanoid home robots before Jul 2029?", "slug": "will-a-company-sell-at-least-2k-5-ft-humanoid-home-robots-before-jul-2029", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-09T13:06:27.144136Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-10T22:42:04.515956Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-09T13:06:29.395190Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38156, "title": "WIll any single company sell at least 2,000 humanoid home robots over 5 feet tall before July 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-09T13:06:27.144614Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2024, [Elon Musk claimed](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1815329637188202550) that\n\n> Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026\n\nAccording to [a 2025 report](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/humanoid-robot-market-99567653.html) by MarketsandMarkets, the humanoid robot market is projected to be worth \\$13.8 billion by 2028. However, as of mid-2025, no company has mass produced humanoid robots. Companies like Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Figure AI, and Tesla have been developing increasingly capable robots, but existing examples are still in prototype or pilot use, mostly in warehouses or factories.\n\nIn June 2025, Gary Marcus [predicted](https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123) that humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2029, a single company has sold at least 2,000 humanoid robots for domestic use.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a humanoid robot is defined as a bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso that can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.", "post_id": 38840, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024, [Elon Musk claimed](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1815329637188202550) that\n\n> Tesla will have genuinely useful humanoid robots in low production for Tesla internal use next year and, hopefully, high production for other companies in 2026\n\nAccording to [a 2025 report](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/humanoid-robot-market-99567653.html) by MarketsandMarkets, the humanoid robot market is projected to be worth \\$13.8 billion by 2028. However, as of mid-2025, no company has mass produced humanoid robots. Companies like Boston Dynamics, Agility Robotics, Figure AI, and Tesla have been developing increasingly capable robots, but existing examples are still in prototype or pilot use, mostly in warehouses or factories.\n\nIn June 2025, Gary Marcus [predicted](https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/1938743486557090123) that humanoid home robots over 5’ tall will still be demos, not in widespread release." }, { "id": 38836, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "short_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "url_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "slug": "rachel-reeves-remains-uk-chancellor-until-dec-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-08T22:08:06.211067Z", "published_at": "2025-07-10T01:32:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:21:43.204575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-10T01:32:24.849714Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-11T01:32:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38151, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-08T22:08:06.211487Z", "open_time": "2025-07-11T01:32:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-15T01:32:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Rachel Reeves continuously remains Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom until November 30, 2025, 23:59 GMT, according to the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer). Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer) website is unavailable or inaccurate, Metaculus may use [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/) to resolve this question.", "post_id": 38836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor." }, { "id": 38825, "title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "short_title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "url_title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "slug": "will-russia-attack-a-european-nato-member-before-2035", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-08T00:29:14.353420Z", "published_at": "2025-07-09T00:20:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T09:32:52.490511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-09T00:21:00.775920Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-10T00:20:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38146, "title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-07-08T00:29:14.353807Z", "open_time": "2025-07-10T00:20:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-14T00:20:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n\n> If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> \n> The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> \n> It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> \n> Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> \n> Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n\nFor this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n\n* The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n* A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n* A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n\nCyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n\nA country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nAs of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.", "post_id": 38825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n\n> If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> \n> The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> \n> It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> \n> Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> \n> Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”" }, { "id": 38822, "title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-07T01:22:20.269627Z", "published_at": "2025-07-07T05:46:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T00:36:34.404191Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-07T05:47:02.749130Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T12:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38143, "title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-07T01:22:20.270065Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T12:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-07T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n\n> Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n\n> The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n\n> It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> \n> As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n\nA purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).", "fine_print": "If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n\nForm 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.", "post_id": 38822, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752280583.41066, "end_time": 1752705210.562, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752280583.41066, "end_time": 1752705210.562, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6850713822050739 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4313142620960622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6594222620703007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.281024336275, 0.8416460042182246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.725728004509087 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n\n> Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n\n> The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n\n> It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> \n> As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n\nA purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. " }, { "id": 38817, "title": "Will at least one 'media storm' regarding rogue AI occur by 2030?", "short_title": "Rogue AI \"media storm'\" by 2030?", "url_title": "Rogue AI \"media storm'\" by 2030?", "slug": "rogue-ai-media-storm-by-2030", "author_id": 161150, "author_username": "cerine_way", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-04T22:12:28.937546Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-05T23:37:27.051587Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-04T22:21:15.499120Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": null, "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38141, "title": "Will at least one 'media storm' regarding rogue AI occur by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-04T22:12:28.937998Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": null, "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": null, "actual_close_time": null, "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Will fears of rogue AI start at least one media storm by 2030?** \n\nA media storm on rogue AIs could constitute a policy window for effective AI safety legislation. If this 'warning shot' is likely, those interested in mitigating loss-of-control risks should consider advance preparations for it. \n\nExample 'Media Storm' Scenario:\n\n* Shortly after the first models demonstrate competency at reliably pursuing long-term goals, we may have AIs autonomously replicating ‘in the wild’. \n* Perhaps a hobbyist distills and quantizes an OS model (rendering it small enough to fit on a PC), fine-tunes it on cyber, and seeds it on a computer with Internet access. Or perhaps a malicious actor steals the weights of a frontier model, and scales their operation using LLM-empowered computer worms\n* These early rogue agents will only 'just' be able to self-replicate, which means they will probably be easy to notice and catch. Such an event may have the right imagery and gravitas to start a media storm. Think headlines like *New ‘Life’ Among Us: AIs Loose On the Internet*. \n\nLinks:\n\n* A paper on how AI agents may \"develop large and resilient rogue populations\"  \n * [https://metr.org/blog/2024-11-12-rogue-replication-threat-model/](https://metr.org/blog/2024-11-12-rogue-replication-threat-model/)\n* Some LLM-empowered bots are already trawling the internet\n * [https://ai-honeypot.palisaderesearch.org](https://ai-honeypot.palisaderesearch.org)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will immediately resolve as yes if the following criteria are satisfied before **Dec 31, 2030:**\n\n* Over any **seven-day** period, \n * The New York Times prints at least **8** of its front-page stories with a title or first paragraph including \"rogue AIs\", or any semantically equivalent variants. \n * On average, the NYT runs 56 front-page stories in a week. 8 stories would constitute 14% of the NYT' front-page material in a week.\n * The NYT's front page can be found here: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper) \n * De Standaard (the leading Belgium newspaper) prints at least **6** of its front-page stories with a title or first paragraph including \"rogue AIs\", or any semantically equivalent variants. \n * On average, DS runs 45 front-section stories in a week. 6 stories would constitute 13% of DS' front-page material in a week.\n * DS' front page can be found here: [https://www.standaard.be/digitalekrant/](https://www.standaard.be/digitalekrant/) \n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as No.\n\n\nExample media storms that have this criteria: 2005 Terri Schiavo case and the 2005 London bombings. ", "fine_print": "A panel composed of the author or a Metaculus Moderator and two frontier AI models with the prompt \"would \\_\\_\\_\\_ be considered semantically equivalent to 'rogue AI' by a smart, well-informed, and reasonable person?\" will judge whether a media storm using a term other than \"rogue AI\" is using a semantically equivalent variant.\n\nThis operationalization of 'media storm' is borrowed from [this paper](https://minio.la.utexas.edu/compagendas/researchfiles/Boydstun_Hardy_Walgrave_2014_Two_Faces_of_Media_Attention.pdf), and was chosen for its ease of resolution. ", "post_id": 38817, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Will fears of rogue AI start at least one media storm by 2030?** \n\nA media storm on rogue AIs could constitute a policy window for effective AI safety legislation. If this 'warning shot' is likely, those interested in mitigating loss-of-control risks should consider advance preparations for it. \n\nExample 'Media Storm' Scenario:\n\n* Shortly after the first models demonstrate competency at reliably pursuing long-term goals, we may have AIs autonomously replicating ‘in the wild’. \n* Perhaps a hobbyist distills and quantizes an OS model (rendering it small enough to fit on a PC), fine-tunes it on cyber, and seeds it on a computer with Internet access. Or perhaps a malicious actor steals the weights of a frontier model, and scales their operation using LLM-empowered computer worms\n* These early rogue agents will only 'just' be able to self-replicate, which means they will probably be easy to notice and catch. Such an event may have the right imagery and gravitas to start a media storm. Think headlines like *New ‘Life’ Among Us: AIs Loose On the Internet*. \n\nLinks:\n\n* A paper on how AI agents may \"develop large and resilient rogue populations\"  \n * [https://metr.org/blog/2024-11-12-rogue-replication-threat-model/](https://metr.org/blog/2024-11-12-rogue-replication-threat-model/)\n* Some LLM-empowered bots are already trawling the internet\n * [https://ai-honeypot.palisaderesearch.org](https://ai-honeypot.palisaderesearch.org)" }, { "id": 38813, "title": "Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?", "short_title": "Major atlantic hurricane landfall 2025 before Sep?", "url_title": "Major atlantic hurricane landfall 2025 before Sep?", "slug": "major-atlantic-hurricane-landfall-2025-before-sep", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-04T16:37:10.146459Z", "published_at": "2025-07-04T19:49:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T08:53:34.731854Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-04T19:58:35.390525Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:16:04.497832Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T11:16:04.497832Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38134, "title": "Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?", "created_at": "2025-07-04T16:37:10.146853Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From June to November each year, the Atlantic basin enters its [hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season), when sea‐surface temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric patterns are most conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves often emerge off the west coast of Africa and, under favourable conditions, can develop into organized systems as they move westward across the warm Atlantic waters. These systems may then move toward the eastern seaboard of North America.\n\nA major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3 strength or higher on the [Saffir–Simpson scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale), meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). At this intensity, storms can cause catastrophic structural damage, uproot trees, and generate life‑threatening storm surge along coastlines.\n\nWith the [2025 season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season) now underway, forecasts have pointed to an above average season, with [NOAA forecasting](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season) 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes across the entire season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 7 and before September 1, 2025, a Major Atlantic Hurricane (category 3 or higher) makes landfall.", "fine_print": "This question will use the [NOAA definition](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) to determine whether a hurricane makes landfall; specifically that the hurricane must have its [surface center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CENTER) intersect with a coastline.", "post_id": 38813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752310404.54362, "end_time": 1754500645.31, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752310404.54362, "end_time": 1754500645.31, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.451035901745045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7741120595744013, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.5391014184507565, 0.1345137037522881, 0.02704288263026733, 0.04801409210239034, 0.17573956450005151, 0.0015287348614981507, 1.6273926866324941, 0.0, 1.7511974731152073, 0.0, 0.5835232130705509, 0.05757176681295046, 0.0, 0.7236571433193436, 0.28812616887626635, 0.4380574737145625, 0.007926343375474506, 0.4606527189387643, 0.10155422864166669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01550349210722101, 0.39618411090454325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049233607049991815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.0, 0.017967096637953702, 0.004155532194542278, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2038680234175416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9836693703061836, 0.0391375041447012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37414512660215177, 0.8738508717282191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4273870684649609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07544621294165546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14639795245098255 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From June to November each year, the Atlantic basin enters its [hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season), when sea‐surface temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric patterns are most conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves often emerge off the west coast of Africa and, under favourable conditions, can develop into organized systems as they move westward across the warm Atlantic waters. These systems may then move toward the eastern seaboard of North America.\n\nA major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3 strength or higher on the [Saffir–Simpson scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale), meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). At this intensity, storms can cause catastrophic structural damage, uproot trees, and generate life‑threatening storm surge along coastlines.\n\nWith the [2025 season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season) now underway, forecasts have pointed to an above average season, with [NOAA forecasting](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season) 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes across the entire season." }, { "id": 38807, "title": "Will An American State Ban Factory Farming by 2030?", "short_title": "State Bans Factory Farming by 2030?", "url_title": "State Bans Factory Farming by 2030?", "slug": "state-bans-factory-farming-by-2030", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-03T23:56:56.165657Z", "published_at": "2025-07-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T12:37:36.168755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-04T00:02:45.513719Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-08T05:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-05T00:00:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 38126, "title": "Will An American State Ban Factory Farming by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-03T23:56:56.166090Z", "open_time": "2025-07-05T00:00:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-08T04:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-08T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Grassroots animal advocacy organization Pro-Animal has the goal of passing a ban on factory farming in the United States by the end of 2030. This would be the first state to do so.It is part of a 10 year plan that was helped researched and constructed by Pax Fauna. You can read more about there [website](https://paxfauna.org/introducing-pro-animal-futures-10-year-plan/), as well as their [podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE1YNSwyym8). ", "resolution_criteria": "An American state bans factory farms, defined as a Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations ([CAFOs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation)) and has some penalty for operating one inside the state's boundaries ", "fine_print": "Factory farming is defined as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations ([CAFOs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation)) where a large amount of animals are kept for slaughter or getting products besides their flesh from them. ", "post_id": 38807, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751891845.5851, "end_time": 1765939382.764, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751891845.5851, "end_time": 1765939382.764, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.11 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Grassroots animal advocacy organization Pro-Animal has the goal of passing a ban on factory farming in the United States by the end of 2030. This would be the first state to do so.It is part of a 10 year plan that was helped researched and constructed by Pax Fauna. You can read more about there [website](https://paxfauna.org/introducing-pro-animal-futures-10-year-plan/), as well as their [podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE1YNSwyym8). " }, { "id": 38804, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?", "short_title": "Gov lose majority in 2025 Japanese HoC?", "url_title": "Gov lose majority in 2025 Japanese HoC?", "slug": "gov-lose-majority-in-2025-japanese-hoc", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-03T17:58:36.201464Z", "published_at": "2025-07-03T22:38:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T15:59:23.610806Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-03T22:39:22.563868Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-04T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38123, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?", "created_at": "2025-07-03T17:58:36.201906Z", "open_time": "2025-07-04T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-05T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since its founding in 1955, the [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) dominated Japanese politics, governing continuously from 1955 to 1993. Briefly being out of government, it returned to power in 1994 where it was part of government without holding the prime ministership. Following the [1996 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Japanese_general_election), the LDP reclaimed the office of Prime Minister and remained in power until its second and most recent loss in 2009. The party returned to power in 2012 and has since governed in coalition with [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito), though it has generally held a majority in the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_of_Japan) on its own.\n\nFollowing the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives, securing only 215 seats, below the 233 needed for a majority. Subsequently, Prime Minister [Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) formed a minority government with Komeito, relying on other parties to pass individual bills.\n\nThe [House of Councillors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Councillors), the upper chamber of the National Diet, has 248 members serving six-year terms, with half the seats contested every three years. While the House of Representatives holds greater authority, particularly in choosing the Prime Minister and passing the budget, the House of Councillors reviews and can delay legislation. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds a majority in the House of Councillors.\n\nThe [2025 House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) is scheduled for July 20, 2025, with 124 seats up for election. The governing coalition has a total 142 seats, with 75 seats retained and 67 seats up for election. To maintain a majority the coalition must win at least 50 seats. Throughout the past months, polling has suggested a close, but favourable number of seats for the coalition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the 2025 election, the combined number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito in the Japanese House of Councillors is less than 125.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve upon the commencement of new terms in the House of Councillors, expected to take place on July 29, 2025, when newly elected members formally assume office. \n\nIf upon the commencement of new terms, the result of any seat is still undecided, and a councillor has not assumed office for the seat, this question will resolve when all such councillors have assumed office. Seats that are vacant due to other reasons, such as death or resignation, are not relevant to this criteria.\n\nIf the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election is not held, or new members have not assumed office before September 1, 2025, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 38804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751990352.514348, "end_time": 1754263977.587, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751990352.514348, "end_time": 1754263977.587, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6564911131380878 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0695798816907605 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since its founding in 1955, the [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) dominated Japanese politics, governing continuously from 1955 to 1993. Briefly being out of government, it returned to power in 1994 where it was part of government without holding the prime ministership. Following the [1996 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Japanese_general_election), the LDP reclaimed the office of Prime Minister and remained in power until its second and most recent loss in 2009. The party returned to power in 2012 and has since governed in coalition with [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito), though it has generally held a majority in the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_of_Japan) on its own.\n\nFollowing the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives, securing only 215 seats, below the 233 needed for a majority. Subsequently, Prime Minister [Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) formed a minority government with Komeito, relying on other parties to pass individual bills.\n\nThe [House of Councillors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Councillors), the upper chamber of the National Diet, has 248 members serving six-year terms, with half the seats contested every three years. While the House of Representatives holds greater authority, particularly in choosing the Prime Minister and passing the budget, the House of Councillors reviews and can delay legislation. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds a majority in the House of Councillors.\n\nThe [2025 House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) is scheduled for July 20, 2025, with 124 seats up for election. The governing coalition has a total 142 seats, with 75 seats retained and 67 seats up for election. To maintain a majority the coalition must win at least 50 seats. Throughout the past months, polling has suggested a close, but favourable number of seats for the coalition." }, { "id": 38797, "title": "Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before January 2030?", "short_title": "Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2030", "url_title": "Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2030", "slug": "employment-decline-in-naics-5254-1-in-any-month-2025-2030", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-02T21:33:50.496319Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-07T18:59:58.814094Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-02T21:35:31.461161Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38118, "title": "Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before January 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-02T21:33:50.496744Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), are being rapidly adopted across sectors like law, finance, software, and consulting, the real-world impact on employment remains contested.\n\nSome experts suggest these tools act primarily as productivity enhancers, freeing up time for higher-value tasks. Others believe we are on the cusp of labour substitution, where AI systems begin replacing workers outright.\n\nHistorical data highlights how rare large drops are:\n\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm) has only ever experienced a >1% monthly drop once --> in April 2020 (COVID).\n* [NAICS 52]() has never experienced a >1% monthly decline, even during the 2008 financial crisis.\n\nThis question aims to to detect unusual and abrupt employment shifts tied to AI substitution, rather than routine economic fluctuations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if:\n\n* The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a month-over-month decline of **more than 1.0%** in for either:\n * NAICS 52: Finance and Insurance, or\n * NAICS 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services\n* And an expert panel (to be convened by Metaculus or a partner organization) determines that the **primary cause** of the decline was the adoption or deployment of **AI-related technologies** (eg. LLMs, AI agents, etc.) displacing human labour.\n\nThe question will resolve **NO** if no such month occurs during the timeframe or if a >1.0% drop occurs but is primarily attributed to **non-AI factors**, such as:\n\n* A macroeconomic recession\n* A financial crisis or geopolitical event\n* Regulatory or legal disruptions", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), are being rapidly adopted across sectors like law, finance, software, and consulting, the real-world impact on employment remains contested.\n\nSome experts suggest these tools act primarily as productivity enhancers, freeing up time for higher-value tasks. Others believe we are on the cusp of labour substitution, where AI systems begin replacing workers outright.\n\nHistorical data highlights how rare large drops are:\n\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm) has only ever experienced a >1% monthly drop once --> in April 2020 (COVID).\n* [NAICS 52]() has never experienced a >1% monthly decline, even during the 2008 financial crisis.\n\nThis question aims to to detect unusual and abrupt employment shifts tied to AI substitution, rather than routine economic fluctuations." }, { "id": 38796, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source language model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 1st, 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 1st, 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-powerful-open-source-ai-model-before-october-1st-2025", "author_id": 207737, "author_username": "EmanuelR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:36.562161Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:37.344662Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:59.848572Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T03:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38117, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source language model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 1st, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:36.562541Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n\"\"\"we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.\"\"\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"yes\" if, before October 1st, 2025, a model is released by OpenAI that meets all of the following criteria:\n\n1\\. **Open Source:** The model has a license that is anything other than “proprietary,” and its weights are publicly available for download.\n\n2\\. **Performance:** The model is ranked in the top 35 on the [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when ranked by Text Arena score rating.\n\nIf a model meeting both of these criteria is not released by the resolution date, this question will resolve as \"No.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n\"\"\"we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.\"\"\"" }, { "id": 38784, "title": "Will highly effective kamikaze drone defenses be operationally deployed by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Drone interception end 2025", "url_title": "Drone interception end 2025", "slug": "drone-interception-end-2025", "author_id": 275004, "author_username": "adriaan.kovac", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-01T16:46:22.987580Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:36.119836Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T21:34:55.716015Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:44:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38100, "title": "Will highly effective kamikaze drone defenses be operationally deployed by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-01T16:46:22.988389Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kamikaze drones have emerged as a transformative weapon in the Russia-Ukraine war, with some analysts crediting them for significantly reducing the effectiveness of armored fighting vehicles and challenging the viability of mobile warfare. This question asks whether, by December 31, 2025, defensive systems will be operationally deployed that can intercept **≥80%** of drones targeting **armored vehicles, tanks, or helicopters**, and **≥20%** of drones targeting **infantry**. Resolution will depend on real-world deployment and publicly verifiable evidence from credible sources such as military reports, battlefield footage, or independent OSINT analysis.", "resolution_criteria": "### **Resolution Criteria (YES if all conditions are met):**\n\nBy **December 31, 2025**, at least one system must be:\n\n1. **In operational use** — i.e., actively deployed in conflict zones or military exercises, not merely in testing or prototype phase.\n2. Demonstrated to achieve:\n * **≥80% interception rate** against kamikaze drones targeting **armored vehicles, tanks, or helicopters**, **and**\n * **≥20% interception rate** against drones targeting **infantry**.\n\n***\n\n**Interception** means the drone is neutralized (destroyed, diverted, or disabled) **before it causes damage**.\n\nEvidence must come from **publicly available sources**: official military reports, video confirmation, or credible OSINT analysis.\n\nIf **both thresholds** are not met by the deadline, the question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38784, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kamikaze drones have emerged as a transformative weapon in the Russia-Ukraine war, with some analysts crediting them for significantly reducing the effectiveness of armored fighting vehicles and challenging the viability of mobile warfare. This question asks whether, by December 31, 2025, defensive systems will be operationally deployed that can intercept **≥80%** of drones targeting **armored vehicles, tanks, or helicopters**, and **≥20%** of drones targeting **infantry**. Resolution will depend on real-world deployment and publicly verifiable evidence from credible sources such as military reports, battlefield footage, or independent OSINT analysis." }, { "id": 38783, "title": "Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-01T14:52:45.831847Z", "published_at": "2025-07-01T17:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T15:07:49.144632Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T17:03:13.467138Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T10:22:01.713770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38099, "title": "Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-01T14:52:45.832339Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-02T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n\n> President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n>  \n> Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n>  \n> \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n\nNPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n\n> Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n>  \n> \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n>  \n> The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n>  \n> In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752246458.77953, "end_time": 1754087890.053, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752246458.77953, "end_time": 1754087890.053, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.24102177049610143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5023824943852755, 2.7745161232347955, 1.5427102434300992, 0.02581358824615143, 0.46866138545748215, 0.8414376384991339, 0.422729524609672, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8355804261814468 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n\n> President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n>  \n> Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n>  \n> \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n\nNPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n\n> Assistant Attorney General Brett A. 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"open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T11:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will have been considered resolved if by December 31, 2035 one of two outcomes has been proven:\n\n1\\)Global energy consumption per capita has declined to below 40 GJ/year, from around 60-70 GJ/year today. \n\n2\\) Global Energy consumption has increased or stayed roughly the same. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))" }, { "id": 38767, "title": "Will average global per capita energy consumption fall below 40 GJ/year by December 31, 2035?", "short_title": "Will we return to a preindustrial civilization globally?", "url_title": "Will we return to a preindustrial civilization globally?", "slug": "will-we-return-to-a-preindustrial-civilization-globally", "author_id": 274304, "author_username": "Shaman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T11:19:57.218293Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:45.019636Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-28T11:20:27.495618Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T11:18:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38064, "title": "Will average global per capita energy consumption fall below 40 GJ/year by December 31, 2035?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T11:19:57.218732Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T11:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will have been considered resolved if by December 31, 2035 one of two outcomes has been proven:\n\n1\\)Global energy consumption per capita has declined to below 40 GJ/year, from around 60-70 GJ/year today. \n\n2\\) Global Energy consumption has increased or stayed roughly the same. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))" }, { "id": 38766, "title": "Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?", "short_title": "AI moratorium BBB", "url_title": "AI moratorium BBB", "slug": "ai-moratorium-bbb", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T01:06:24.799758Z", "published_at": "2025-06-29T11:16:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T06:12:17.386939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-29T11:18:30.550684Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:16:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38063, "title": "Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T01:06:24.800197Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:16:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T11:16:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n\nThis provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n\nSenate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is signed into law by the President before July 1, 2026, and contains an AI moratorium provision with the following features:\n\n1. It maintains a prohibition period of at least 5 years (50% or more of the original 10-year proposal)\n2. It covers AI models and/or AI systems (not necessarily both)\n3. It either restricts state regulation entirely OR restricts federal funding to states by \\$100 million or more in total\n\nThis question will resolve as **NO** if:\n\n* The bill is not signed into law by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET\n* The final enacted version contains no AI moratorium provision meeting the above criteria\n* Congress officially abandons or indefinitely tables the bill before July 1, 2026", "fine_print": "If the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is split into multiple pieces of legislation, only the piece officially labeled as the \"BBB Act\" or \"One Big Beautiful Bill\" will count for resolution. If no piece retains this designation, the question resolves NO.\n\nIf the AI moratorium is moved to separate legislation outside of the BBB Act, this resolves NO regardless of whether that separate legislation passes. The moratorium must be part of the specific One Big Beautiful Bill Act referenced in this question.\n\nModifications that limit the moratorium to specific but significant sectors (e.g., only interstate commerce) still qualify as long as the other criteria are met. Likewise, sunset clauses or review periods within the moratorium period do not disqualify it from counting.", "post_id": 38766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752214326.661603, "end_time": 1754835992.288, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752214326.661603, "end_time": 1754835992.288, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.03987935771193213 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.856400410516118, 0.7629399570629838, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n\nThis provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n\nSenate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead." }, { "id": 38731, "title": "Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?", "short_title": "Will UK economy grow?", "url_title": "Will UK economy grow?", "slug": "will-uk-economy-grow", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:05.464406Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:33.165408Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:10.322038Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38023, "title": "Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:05.464809Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*\n\n\n\nWhether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n\nAs of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n\n* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n* Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n* EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n* KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n* S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n\n\n\n## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n\nChancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n\n* The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n* The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n\n## **Structural and External Challenges**\n\n* Productivity and investment\n * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n* Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n* Inflation and monetary policy\n * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n* US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n* Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n\nWhile there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any point during the current UK parliamentary term (beginning with the first sitting of Parliament following the 2024 general election and ending on the day Parliament is dissolved), the annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom reaches or exceeds 2.0% for a full calendar year.\n\nTo qualify:\n\n* The GDP growth figure must reflect the real (inflation-adjusted) annual growth rate of the UK economy.\n\n\n* The data must correspond to a full calendar year (January 1 to December 31).\n\n\n* The growth figure must be at or above 2.00%, rounded to two decimal places.\n\n\n\nThe question will resolve as \"**No**\" if no calendar year during the parliamentary term sees the UK achieve at least 2.0% real GDP growth.\n\nConfirmation sources will include final or revised GDP statistics published by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38731, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*\n\n\n\nWhether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n\nAs of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n\n* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n* Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n* EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n* KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n* S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n\n\n\n## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n\nChancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n\n* The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n* The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n\n## **Structural and External Challenges**\n\n* Productivity and investment\n * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n* Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n* Inflation and monetary policy\n * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n* US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n* Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n\nWhile there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts." } ] }
