Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=100
{ "count": 5882, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "results": [ { "id": 39237, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 47.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-uk-economy-grow-by-at-least-2-in-any-year-of-the-59th-parliament", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.644665Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.601140Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:01.069779Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T06:18:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:54Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38579, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 47.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.645072Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T07:51:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T06:18:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:54Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:15.797349Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T09:21:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731\n- Original question title: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 47.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n> * The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n> *  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n> * All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n> \n> ***\n> \n> Whether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n> \n> As of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n> \n> * International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n> * Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n> * EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n> * KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n> * S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n> \n> ## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n> \n> Chancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n> \n> * The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n> * The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n> * The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n> \n> ## **Structural and External Challenges**\n> \n> * Productivity and investment\n> * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n> * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n> * Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n> * Inflation and monetary policy\n> * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n> * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n> * US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n> * Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n> \n> While there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38731,\"question_id\":38023,\"last_cp\":0.47}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731. If the community prediction on 2025-08-25 06:18:06 is higher than 47.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39237, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755681168.032711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755681168.032711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35244680851063825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 32.52609365700034, "peer_score": 1.368586748092271, "coverage": 0.8639290822435308, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0011839025590728229, "weighted_coverage": 0.8639290822435308, "spot_peer_score": 1.7127025365486093, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 32.52609365700034, "peer_archived_score": 1.368586748092271, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0011839025590728229, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7127025365486093, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38731\n- Original question title: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 47.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n> * The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n> *  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n> * All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n> \n> ***\n> \n> Whether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n> \n> As of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n> \n> * International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n> * Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n> * EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n> * KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n> * S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n> \n> ## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n> \n> Chancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n> \n> * The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n> * The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n> * The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n> \n> ## **Structural and External Challenges**\n> \n> * Productivity and investment\n> * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n> * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n> * Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n> * Inflation and monetary policy\n> * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n> * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n> * US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n> * Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n> \n> While there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38731,\"question_id\":38023,\"last_cp\":0.47}}`" }, { "id": 39236, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-21 for the Metaculus question 'Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alcatraz house inmates before 2028?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alcatraz-house-inmates-before-2028", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.623023Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.098882Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:34:00.070726Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-21T22:52:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38578, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-21 for the Metaculus question 'Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.623513Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T06:07:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-21T22:52:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:21.902755Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T07:37:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524\n- Original question title: Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n> * A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37524,\"question_id\":36889,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524. If the community prediction on 2025-08-21 22:52:45 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39236, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755588532.049959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755588532.049959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.225 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.775, 0.225 ], "means": [ 0.23718750000000002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.187885508808364, "peer_score": 1.7611511969153844, "coverage": 0.9532230740564841, "relative_legacy_score": 0.032710939667928735, "weighted_coverage": 0.9532230740564841, "spot_peer_score": 2.834010338298574, "spot_baseline_score": 63.22682154995129, "baseline_archived_score": 56.187885508808364, "peer_archived_score": 1.7611511969153844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.032710939667928735, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.834010338298574, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.22682154995129 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37524\n- Original question title: Will Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary house inmates before 2028?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any moment before January 1, 2028, ET, at least one individual is held in official federal custody at a facility on Alcatraz Island (San Francisco, CA), under the auspices of the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or another federal law enforcement agency acting in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Incarceration must involve at least one detainee held under federal authority (e.g., DOJ, DHS, DoD) and for a non-transitory purpose (e.g., not just holding during transport).\n> * A ceremonial, symbolic, or temporary use (e.g., for media, private security, or reenactments) will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcatraz_Federal_Penitentiary), located on Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay, operated as a high-security federal prison from 1934 until its closure in 1963. It was the most expensive prison in the US and its conditions were considered by many as extreme and inhumane. In early 2025, President Donald Trump [announced plans](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/05/us/trump-alcatraz-prison-history-hnk) to reopen Alcatraz to detain what he called “the most ruthless and violent offenders\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37524,\"question_id\":36889,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39235, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-23 for the Metaculus question 'Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as DNI before September 1, 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as DNI before September 1, 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-tulsi-gabbard-be-out-as-dni-before-september-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.722728Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T13:48:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.316243Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:59.135723Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-23T01:44:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T13:48:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38577, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-23 for the Metaculus question 'Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.723141Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T13:48:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-23T01:44:41Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:56:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:22.881768Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T15:18:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38661\n- Original question title: Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025:\n> \n> * Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI) or \n> * There is an official announcement that she will cease to be DNI before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Examples of such announcements include, but are not limited to, Gabbard announcing her resignation or Trump announcing her firing.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Tulsi Gabbard has served as Director of National Intelligence since February 12, 2025. As DNI, she oversees intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. \n> \n> On June 10, 2025, Gabbard [tweeted](https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348) a video in which she said: \n> \n> > A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes... As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elites and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. \n> \n> According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/gabbard-trump-00411685): \n> \n> > Trump saw the unauthorized video and became incensed, complaining to associates at the White House that she had spoken out of turn, according to three people familiar with the episode — two of them inside the administration and all granted anonymity to describe sensitive dynamics.\n> \n> > Her post came a few days after Israel hawks [met with Trump at the White House](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/iran-trump-maga-hawks-00394820) to lobby him to support Israel’s attacks on Iran. In the eyes of Trump and some close to him, Gabbard was warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. Trump even expressed his disapproval to her personally, the three people said.\n> \n> > “I don’t think he dislikes Tulsi as a person … But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn’t like it when people are off message,” said one of the people, a senior administration official. The official added that Trump also doesn’t appreciate it when people appear to be correcting him and that “many took that video as trying to correct the administration’s position.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38661,\"question_id\":37882,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38661. If the community prediction on 2025-08-23 01:44:41 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39235, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755616089.237103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755616089.237103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.566419105506085, "peer_score": 5.359114902306127, "coverage": 0.9535478583530145, "relative_legacy_score": 0.07124811026374273, "weighted_coverage": 0.9535478583530145, "spot_peer_score": 6.532379172337658, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 56.566419105506085, "peer_archived_score": 5.359114902306127, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.07124811026374273, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.532379172337658, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38661\n- Original question title: Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025:\n> \n> * Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI) or \n> * There is an official announcement that she will cease to be DNI before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Examples of such announcements include, but are not limited to, Gabbard announcing her resignation or Trump announcing her firing.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Tulsi Gabbard has served as Director of National Intelligence since February 12, 2025. As DNI, she oversees intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. \n> \n> On June 10, 2025, Gabbard [tweeted](https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348) a video in which she said: \n> \n> > A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes... As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elites and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. \n> \n> According to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/gabbard-trump-00411685): \n> \n> > Trump saw the unauthorized video and became incensed, complaining to associates at the White House that she had spoken out of turn, according to three people familiar with the episode — two of them inside the administration and all granted anonymity to describe sensitive dynamics.\n> \n> > Her post came a few days after Israel hawks [met with Trump at the White House](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/iran-trump-maga-hawks-00394820) to lobby him to support Israel’s attacks on Iran. In the eyes of Trump and some close to him, Gabbard was warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. Trump even expressed his disapproval to her personally, the three people said.\n> \n> > “I don’t think he dislikes Tulsi as a person … But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn’t like it when people are off message,” said one of the people, a senior administration official. The official added that Trump also doesn’t appreciate it when people appear to be correcting him and that “many took that video as trying to correct the administration’s position.”\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38661,\"question_id\":37882,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39234, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 54.00% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Executive branch in contempt for not obeying the Supreme Court, by Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-executive-branch-in-contempt-for-not-obeying-the-supreme-court-by-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.105616Z", "published_at": "2025-08-23T09:49:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.071445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.394331Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T16:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:05Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T09:49:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38576, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 54.00% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:58.106021Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T09:49:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T16:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:05Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:28.723860Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T11:19:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192\n- Original question title: Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 54.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, any federal court or the Supreme Court of the United States formally holds any agency or official of the executive branch in contempt (civil or criminal) for either:\n> \n> * direct non-compliance with a Supreme Court order, judgment, or mandate OR\n> * non-compliance with a federal court order that implements a Supreme Court mandate. For this to count, the contempt order has to explicitly cite that Supreme Court mandate.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the contempt ruling is later reversed.\n> * Federal courts [consist of](https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts) federal district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court.\n\nOriginal background: \n> According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court \n> \n> > shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.\n> \n> At the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars), \n> \n> > The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.\n> \n> Almost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):  \n> \n> > The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO.\n> \n> At the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed. \n> \n> In another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing:\n> \n> > In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance\n> \n> The Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration.\n> \n> However, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders): \n> \n> > The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> * Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf)\n> * Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38192,\"question_id\":37478,\"last_cp\":0.54}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192. If the community prediction on 2025-08-26 16:49:22 is higher than 54.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39234, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755946804.898283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755946804.898283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42450980392156873 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 22.478863256221125, "peer_score": 7.919610046230164, "coverage": 0.9007514137250408, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0042332485117784315, "weighted_coverage": 0.9007514137250408, "spot_peer_score": 9.14025314511752, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 22.478863256221125, "peer_archived_score": 7.919610046230164, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0042332485117784315, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.14025314511752, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38192\n- Original question title: Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 54.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, any federal court or the Supreme Court of the United States formally holds any agency or official of the executive branch in contempt (civil or criminal) for either:\n> \n> * direct non-compliance with a Supreme Court order, judgment, or mandate OR\n> * non-compliance with a federal court order that implements a Supreme Court mandate. For this to count, the contempt order has to explicitly cite that Supreme Court mandate.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the contempt ruling is later reversed.\n> * Federal courts [consist of](https://www.justice.gov/usao/justice-101/federal-courts) federal district courts, circuit courts, and the Supreme Court.\n\nOriginal background: \n> According to [18 U.S.C. § 401](https://codes.findlaw.com/us/title-18-crimes-and-criminal-procedure/18-usc-sect-401/), a US federal court \n> \n> > shall have power to punish by fine or imprisonment, or both, at its discretion, such contempt of its authority, and none other, as... Disobedience or resistance to its lawful writ, process, order, rule, decree, or command.\n> \n> At the time of this question, 250 cases[ had been filed](https://www.justsecurity.org/107087/tracker-litigation-legal-challenges-trump-administration/) in federal courts seeking to block policies of President Donald Trump's second administration. One such early example stemmed from the Trump Administration's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on January 28, 2025 issuing a freeze on disbursements of federal grants and loans, with the acting OMB director [saying](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-orders-temporary-funding-freeze-that-could-affect-trillions-of-dollars), \n> \n> > The use of Federal resources to advance Marxist equity, transgenderism, and green new deal social engineering policies is a waste of taxpayer dollars that does not improve the day-to-day lives of those we serve.\n> \n> Almost immediately, Democratic attorneys general from 22 states and Washington, D.C., filed suit, and on January 31, a federal district court judge [issued](https://www.npr.org/2025/01/31/nx-s1-5282410/trump-spending-freeze-blocked-federal-judge) a temporary restraining order (TRO) blocking the freeze. Ten days later the AGs, accusing the Trump Administration of failing to comply with the order, filed an emergency motion to get the court to compel the Administration to release the frozen funds. The judge ruled that the Administration had in fact ignored the court order and granted the motion, [writing](https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/2025/02/10/federal-judge-in-r-i-doubles-down-on-order-to-block-federal-funding-freeze/):  \n> \n> > The broad categorical and sweeping freeze of federal funds is, as the Court found, likely unconstitutional and has caused and continues to cause irreparable harm to a vast portion of this country. These pauses in funding violate the plain text of the TRO.\n> \n> At the time of this question, the case is [still ongoing ](https://clearinghouse.net/case/45976/)and is being appealed. \n> \n> In another case, a district court judge said he [found cause](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-finds-probable-cause-hold-trump-administration-contempt-deportat-rcna201569) to hold the Trump Administration in contempt for refusing a court order to turn around planes carrying deportees to El Salvador, with the judge writing:\n> \n> > In the event that Defendants do not choose to purge their contempt, the Court will proceed to identify the individual(s) responsible for the contumacious conduct by determining whose 'specific act or omission' caused the noncompliance\n> \n> The Supreme Court subsequently [ruled in favor](https://www.cliniclegal.org/resources/removal-proceedings/what-happening-alien-enemies-act-kilmar-abrego-garcia-and-salvadoran) of the Trump Administration.\n> \n> However, amid the ongoing cases, questions have arisen about whether the Trump Administration might defy a court order, including from the Supreme Court. [According to the Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/what-courts-can-do-if-trump-administration-defies-court-orders): \n> \n> > The last time the United States saw widespread open defiance of court orders by elected officials was when governors in Southern states refused to integrate their schools after the Supreme Court ruled against segregation in public education in Brown v. Board of Education. President Dwight Eisenhower — though he was no fan of the Court’s decision — ultimately dispatched troops to the South to help enforce the ruling\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> * Congressional Research Service (PDF): [Enforcement of Court Orders Against the Executive Branch](file:///Users/johnbash/Downloads/LSB11271.3.pdf)\n> * Harvard Law Review: [The Endgame of Administrative Law: Governmental Disobedience and the Judicial Contempt Power](https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-131/the-endgame-of-administrative-law/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38192,\"question_id\":37478,\"last_cp\":0.54}}`" }, { "id": 39233, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI safety checks mandated before Jan 20, 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-safety-checks-mandated-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.400472Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T08:07:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.628955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.715575Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:28:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:10Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T08:07:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38575, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.400900Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T08:07:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:28:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:10Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:29.580391Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T09:37:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38190\n- Original question title: Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a federal bill is signed into law, an executive order is issued, or a federal regulation is officially adopted in the United States that legally mandates that AI companies do at least one of the following:\n> \n> * they conduct third-party safety evaluations of their frontier models\n> * they conduct internal safety evaluations of their frontier models and share their data or results with either the US government or third parties.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question is purposefully not defining \"frontier models\". Any such defintion by the bill, EO, or regulation would suffice to resolve this question, even if it is for a slightly different model class (e.g., \"dangerous models\"), as long as it is intended to cover all models from a capability level and above. This includes simple compute thresholds, benchmark results, or leaving the decision of what is considered a frontier model to the AI companies or the evaluators.\n> * The date the bill, EO, or regulation comes into effect is immaterial for the purposes of this question. It will resolve solely based on the date the bill is signed into law, the EO is issued, or the regulation is officially adopted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, governments have started ramping up regulation to mitigate its negative effects. On August 1, 2024, EU's [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) came into force, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Similarly, in 2022, the White House released its \"[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-bill-of-rights)\". In 2023, the Biden administration [secured voluntary AI safety commitments](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) from Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which were [later joined](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-eight-additional-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) by Adobe, Cohere, IBM, Nvidia, Palantir, Salesforce, Scale AI, and Stability AI. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_AI_in_the_United_States)\n> \n> > The companies committed to ensure AI products undergo both internal and external security testing before public release; to share information on the management of AI risks with the industry, governments, civil society, and academia; to prioritize cybersecurity and protect proprietary AI system components; to develop mechanisms to inform users when content is AI-generated, such as watermarking; to publicly report on their AI systems' capabilities, limitations, and areas of use; to prioritize research on societal risks posed by AI, including bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns; and to develop AI systems to address societal challenges, ranging from cancer prevention to climate change mitigation.\n> \n> Later in 2023, Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) (Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. According to the fact sheet, the Executive Order would\n> \n> > **Require that developers of the most powerful AI systems share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government.** In accordance with the Defense Production Act, the Order will require that companies developing any foundation model that poses a serious risk to national security, national economic security, or national public health and safety must notify the federal government when training the model, and must share the results of all red-team safety tests. These measures will ensure AI systems are safe, secure, and trustworthy before companies make them public.\n> \n> However, hours upon his return to office in 2025, President Trump rescinded Biden's order with [Executive Order 14179](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) (Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence), \"[eliminating harmful Biden Administration AI policies and enhancing America’s global AI dominance](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/)\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38190,\"question_id\":37477,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38190. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 12:28:27 is higher than 35.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39233, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755506907.255235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755506907.255235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3617934782608696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.96091696437847, "peer_score": 9.784113660246259, "coverage": 0.8317602570410129, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0005762431412493592, "weighted_coverage": 0.8317602570410129, "spot_peer_score": 13.27257394491826, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 41.96091696437847, "peer_archived_score": 9.784113660246259, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0005762431412493592, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.27257394491826, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38190\n- Original question title: Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 35.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a federal bill is signed into law, an executive order is issued, or a federal regulation is officially adopted in the United States that legally mandates that AI companies do at least one of the following:\n> \n> * they conduct third-party safety evaluations of their frontier models\n> * they conduct internal safety evaluations of their frontier models and share their data or results with either the US government or third parties.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question is purposefully not defining \"frontier models\". Any such defintion by the bill, EO, or regulation would suffice to resolve this question, even if it is for a slightly different model class (e.g., \"dangerous models\"), as long as it is intended to cover all models from a capability level and above. This includes simple compute thresholds, benchmark results, or leaving the decision of what is considered a frontier model to the AI companies or the evaluators.\n> * The date the bill, EO, or regulation comes into effect is immaterial for the purposes of this question. It will resolve solely based on the date the bill is signed into law, the EO is issued, or the regulation is officially adopted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> As artificial intelligence becomes more powerful, governments have started ramping up regulation to mitigate its negative effects. On August 1, 2024, EU's [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) came into force, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Similarly, in 2022, the White House released its \"[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/ai-bill-of-rights)\". In 2023, the Biden administration [secured voluntary AI safety commitments](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/07/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-leading-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) from Amazon, Anthropic, Google, Inflection, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI, which were [later joined](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/12/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-secures-voluntary-commitments-from-eight-additional-artificial-intelligence-companies-to-manage-the-risks-posed-by-ai/) by Adobe, Cohere, IBM, Nvidia, Palantir, Salesforce, Scale AI, and Stability AI. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulation_of_AI_in_the_United_States)\n> \n> > The companies committed to ensure AI products undergo both internal and external security testing before public release; to share information on the management of AI risks with the industry, governments, civil society, and academia; to prioritize cybersecurity and protect proprietary AI system components; to develop mechanisms to inform users when content is AI-generated, such as watermarking; to publicly report on their AI systems' capabilities, limitations, and areas of use; to prioritize research on societal risks posed by AI, including bias, discrimination, and privacy concerns; and to develop AI systems to address societal challenges, ranging from cancer prevention to climate change mitigation.\n> \n> Later in 2023, Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) (Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. According to the fact sheet, the Executive Order would\n> \n> > **Require that developers of the most powerful AI systems share their safety test results and other critical information with the U.S. government.** In accordance with the Defense Production Act, the Order will require that companies developing any foundation model that poses a serious risk to national security, national economic security, or national public health and safety must notify the federal government when training the model, and must share the results of all red-team safety tests. These measures will ensure AI systems are safe, secure, and trustworthy before companies make them public.\n> \n> However, hours upon his return to office in 2025, President Trump rescinded Biden's order with [Executive Order 14179](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) (Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence), \"[eliminating harmful Biden Administration AI policies and enhancing America’s global AI dominance](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/)\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38190,\"question_id\":37477,\"last_cp\":0.35}}`" }, { "id": 39232, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 0.10% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI moratorium BBB\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI moratorium BBB\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-moratorium-bbb", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:56.582315Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T20:30:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.082997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:57.012671Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T22:00:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T22:00:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T18:32:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:11Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T20:30:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38574, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 0.10% on 2025-08-26 for the Metaculus question 'Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:56.582788Z", "open_time": "2025-08-20T20:30:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T22:00:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T22:00:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-26T18:32:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:11Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:40.412881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T22:00:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T22:00:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38766\n- Original question title: Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 0.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **YES** if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is signed into law by the President before July 1, 2026, and contains an AI moratorium provision with the following features:\n> \n> 1. It maintains a prohibition period of at least 5 years (50% or more of the original 10-year proposal)\n> 2. It covers AI models and/or AI systems (not necessarily both)\n> 3. It either restricts state regulation entirely OR restricts federal funding to states by \\$100 million or more in total\n> \n> This question will resolve as **NO** if:\n> \n> * The bill is not signed into law by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET\n> * The final enacted version contains no AI moratorium provision meeting the above criteria\n> * Congress officially abandons or indefinitely tables the bill before July 1, 2026\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is split into multiple pieces of legislation, only the piece officially labeled as the \"BBB Act\" or \"One Big Beautiful Bill\" will count for resolution. If no piece retains this designation, the question resolves NO.\n> \n> If the AI moratorium is moved to separate legislation outside of the BBB Act, this resolves NO regardless of whether that separate legislation passes. The moratorium must be part of the specific One Big Beautiful Bill Act referenced in this question.\n> \n> Modifications that limit the moratorium to specific but significant sectors (e.g., only interstate commerce) still qualify as long as the other criteria are met. Likewise, sunset clauses or review periods within the moratorium period do not disqualify it from counting.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n> \n> This provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n> \n> Senate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38766,\"question_id\":38063,\"last_cp\":0.001}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38766. If the community prediction on 2025-08-26 18:32:17 is higher than 0.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39232, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755726979.934407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755726979.934407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09312244897959178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 11.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.32155326074798, "peer_score": 5.482210662705398, "coverage": 0.9414798864611873, "relative_legacy_score": 0.00037892697319732906, "weighted_coverage": 0.9414798864611873, "spot_peer_score": 9.038268109134474, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 87.32155326074798, "peer_archived_score": 5.482210662705398, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.00037892697319732906, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.038268109134474, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38766\n- Original question title: Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 0.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **YES** if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is signed into law by the President before July 1, 2026, and contains an AI moratorium provision with the following features:\n> \n> 1. It maintains a prohibition period of at least 5 years (50% or more of the original 10-year proposal)\n> 2. It covers AI models and/or AI systems (not necessarily both)\n> 3. It either restricts state regulation entirely OR restricts federal funding to states by \\$100 million or more in total\n> \n> This question will resolve as **NO** if:\n> \n> * The bill is not signed into law by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET\n> * The final enacted version contains no AI moratorium provision meeting the above criteria\n> * Congress officially abandons or indefinitely tables the bill before July 1, 2026\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is split into multiple pieces of legislation, only the piece officially labeled as the \"BBB Act\" or \"One Big Beautiful Bill\" will count for resolution. If no piece retains this designation, the question resolves NO.\n> \n> If the AI moratorium is moved to separate legislation outside of the BBB Act, this resolves NO regardless of whether that separate legislation passes. The moratorium must be part of the specific One Big Beautiful Bill Act referenced in this question.\n> \n> Modifications that limit the moratorium to specific but significant sectors (e.g., only interstate commerce) still qualify as long as the other criteria are met. Likewise, sunset clauses or review periods within the moratorium period do not disqualify it from counting.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n> \n> This provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n> \n> Senate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38766,\"question_id\":38063,\"last_cp\":0.001}}`" }, { "id": 39231, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:55.607489Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T22:10:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.383980Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:56.082945Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T02:56:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:11Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T22:10:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38573, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:55.607899Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T22:10:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T02:56:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:11Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:41.336796Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850\n- Original question title: Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n> \n> After privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n> \n> After Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n> \n> In June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38850,\"question_id\":38163,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 02:56:24 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39231, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756421457.104352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756421457.104352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3959400000000002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 29.51276629094677, "peer_score": 19.60930528695131, "coverage": 0.9573075325842257, "relative_legacy_score": 0.01367509097587968, "weighted_coverage": 0.9573075325842257, "spot_peer_score": 23.684885552868575, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 29.51276629094677, "peer_archived_score": 19.60930528695131, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.01367509097587968, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.684885552868575, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38850\n- Original question title: Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n> \n> After privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n> \n> After Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n> \n> In June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38850,\"question_id\":38163,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 39230, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 98.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-openai-surpass-15-million-business-users-before-2030", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:54.795292Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T20:38:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.587508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:55.067097Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-21T22:08:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-21T22:08:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T10:56:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:12Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T20:38:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38572, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 98.00% on 2025-08-25 for the Metaculus question 'Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:54.795726Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T20:38:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T22:08:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T22:08:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-25T10:56:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:12Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:42.243779Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-21T22:08:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-21T22:08:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38867\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 98.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI has reached at least 15 million business users. If no such reports are published, this question will resolve as **No.**\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all).\n> \n> Business subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38867,\"question_id\":38184,\"last_cp\":0.98}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38867. If the community prediction on 2025-08-25 10:56:40 is higher than 98.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39230, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755812847.60343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755812847.60343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4106122448979593 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -48.269758021726986, "peer_score": -0.8721079126146695, "coverage": 0.9404703261234142, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0018171434959212249, "weighted_coverage": 0.9404703261234142, "spot_peer_score": -0.9944149621312246, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -48.269758021726986, "peer_archived_score": -0.8721079126146695, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0018171434959212249, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.9944149621312246, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38867\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 98.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI has reached at least 15 million business users. If no such reports are published, this question will resolve as **No.**\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all).\n> \n> Business subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38867,\"question_id\":38184,\"last_cp\":0.98}}`" }, { "id": 39229, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:54.030578Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T02:05:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.759086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:54.452937Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-21T03:35:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-21T03:35:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T22:16:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:12Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T02:05:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38571, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:54.030985Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T02:05:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T03:35:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T03:35:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T22:16:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:12Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:43.413257Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-21T03:35:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-21T03:35:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665\n- Original question title: Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question may resolve as No before the general election if Mamdani loses the Democratic primary and announces he will not run in the general election.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n> \n> * Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n> * Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n> * Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n> * Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n> \n> NYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38665,\"question_id\":37886,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 22:16:01 is higher than 90.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755746854.543213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755746854.543213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.48408163265306137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.782389065042973, "peer_score": 14.208687900049812, "coverage": 0.8166199355655246, "relative_legacy_score": -0.06311568609293823, "weighted_coverage": 0.8166199355655246, "spot_peer_score": 17.463878706021507, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 6.782389065042973, "peer_archived_score": 14.208687900049812, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.06311568609293823, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.463878706021507, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665\n- Original question title: Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question may resolve as No before the general election if Mamdani loses the Democratic primary and announces he will not run in the general election.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n> \n> * Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n> * Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n> * Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n> * Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n> \n> NYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38665,\"question_id\":37886,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`" }, { "id": 39228, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ishiba stop being PM before Sep 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ishiba stop being PM before Sep 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-ishiba-stop-being-pm-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:53.258776Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T22:53:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.313230Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:53.585125Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T00:23:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T00:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T01:00:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:13Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T22:53:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38570, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:53.259180Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T22:53:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T00:23:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T00:23:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T01:00:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:13Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:44.241480Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T00:23:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T00:23:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38913\n- Original question title: Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Shigeru Ishiba ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 1, 2025 for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Ishiba officially announces that he will resign, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if the effective date is after August 2025 or depends on a specific event taking place, such as a leadership race.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\n> \n> Shortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\n> \n> The [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\n> \n> Following the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38913,\"question_id\":38247,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38913. If the community prediction on 2025-08-30 01:00:38 is higher than 9.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39228, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755562090.5667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755562090.5667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34530612244897957 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.55301900564668, "peer_score": 8.94287994993623, "coverage": 0.9011292644341786, "relative_legacy_score": 0.08986008170044163, "weighted_coverage": 0.9011292644341786, "spot_peer_score": 11.098945831757986, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 43.55301900564668, "peer_archived_score": 8.94287994993623, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.08986008170044163, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.098945831757986, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38913\n- Original question title: Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Shigeru Ishiba ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 1, 2025 for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Ishiba officially announces that he will resign, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if the effective date is after August 2025 or depends on a specific event taking place, such as a leadership race.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\n> \n> Shortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\n> \n> The [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\n> \n> Following the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38913,\"question_id\":38247,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 39227, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-house-seat-a-legislator-who-was-not-certified-winner-before-july-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:52.345603Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T13:06:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.227898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:52.788736Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T14:36:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T14:36:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T13:29:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:18Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T13:06:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38569, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:52.346025Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T13:06:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T14:36:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T14:36:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T13:29:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:18Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:45.382742Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T14:36:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T14:36:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37349\n- Original question title: Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2027, the House of Representatives seats an individual as a member who was not certified as the winner of their election by the [<u>relevant state authorities</u>](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d-V0OQGaN7TF289Qy4L8ot1kaZBFLD8BExHNhvQituw/edit?gid=420665400#gid=420665400). \n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such individual is seated by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purposes of this question, the certified winner is the individual who has received an official certificate of election from the appropriate state authority. An individual is considered seated when they have taken the oath of office and are recognized as a member of the House of Representatives. This question pertains only to individuals elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.\n> \n> We will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In recent years, President Donald Trump has [<u>asserted</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-donald-trumps-election-denial-claims-republican-politicians/story?id=89168408) the existence of rampant election fraud, but has provided [<u>little to no evidence</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) to back up these assertions. Following his election loss in 2020, Trump [<u>pressured numerous state officials</u>](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/point-4-evidence-trump-tried-convince-state-lawmakers-and-election-officials-alter-election-results) to challenge certified results on the basis of fraud and corruption. If a Trump-aligned majority controls the House, they could theoretically [<u>use</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33780) Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution to refuse to seat certified members or seat their own choices under disputed election claims.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37349,\"question_id\":36711,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37349. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 13:29:49 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39227, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755614125.73059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755614125.73059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21000000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.26510416666666664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.5295035325526, "peer_score": 13.849670243560295, "coverage": 0.9722794931464726, "relative_legacy_score": 0.05591743877179695, "weighted_coverage": 0.9722794931464726, "spot_peer_score": 16.59959935026944, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "baseline_archived_score": 60.5295035325526, "peer_archived_score": 13.849670243560295, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.05591743877179695, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.59959935026944, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37349\n- Original question title: Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2027, the House of Representatives seats an individual as a member who was not certified as the winner of their election by the [<u>relevant state authorities</u>](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d-V0OQGaN7TF289Qy4L8ot1kaZBFLD8BExHNhvQituw/edit?gid=420665400#gid=420665400). \n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such individual is seated by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purposes of this question, the certified winner is the individual who has received an official certificate of election from the appropriate state authority. An individual is considered seated when they have taken the oath of office and are recognized as a member of the House of Representatives. This question pertains only to individuals elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.\n> \n> We will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In recent years, President Donald Trump has [<u>asserted</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-donald-trumps-election-denial-claims-republican-politicians/story?id=89168408) the existence of rampant election fraud, but has provided [<u>little to no evidence</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) to back up these assertions. Following his election loss in 2020, Trump [<u>pressured numerous state officials</u>](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/point-4-evidence-trump-tried-convince-state-lawmakers-and-election-officials-alter-election-results) to challenge certified results on the basis of fraud and corruption. If a Trump-aligned majority controls the House, they could theoretically [<u>use</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33780) Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution to refuse to seat certified members or seat their own choices under disputed election claims.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37349,\"question_id\":36711,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39226, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:51.447551Z", "published_at": "2025-08-23T02:56:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.618199Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:51.848448Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T04:26:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T04:26:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T23:09:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:19Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T02:56:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38568, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:51.447952Z", "open_time": "2025-08-23T02:56:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-23T04:26:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-23T04:26:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T23:09:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:19Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:51.177054Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-23T04:26:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-23T04:26:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 23:09:39 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39226, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755921429.15204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755921429.15204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.32850980392156864 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.497246608113464, "peer_score": 12.969290978465622, "coverage": 0.9566459148018448, "relative_legacy_score": 0.055488353087421914, "weighted_coverage": 0.9566459148018448, "spot_peer_score": 13.245491472225655, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 46.497246608113464, "peer_archived_score": 12.969290978465622, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.055488353087421914, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.245491472225655, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`" }, { "id": 39225, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:50.423750Z", "published_at": "2025-08-28T20:05:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.555828Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:50.921158Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-28T21:35:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-28T21:35:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T06:27:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:19Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T20:05:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38567, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:50.424153Z", "open_time": "2025-08-28T20:05:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-28T21:35:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-28T21:35:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T06:27:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:19Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:52.078873Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-28T21:35:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-28T21:35:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822\n- Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n> \n> If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n> \n> Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n> \n> > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n> \n> > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n> \n> > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> > \n> > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n> \n> A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38822,\"question_id\":38143,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 06:27:48 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39225, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756415206.020133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756415206.020133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36495999999999995 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.826597835197283, "peer_score": 0.587980391221764, "coverage": 0.9618108272110975, "relative_legacy_score": -0.027673665135932488, "weighted_coverage": 0.9618108272110975, "spot_peer_score": -2.4631603468959025, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 24.826597835197283, "peer_archived_score": 0.587980391221764, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.027673665135932488, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.4631603468959025, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822\n- Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n> \n> If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n> \n> Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n> \n> > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n> \n> > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n> \n> > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> > \n> > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n> \n> A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38822,\"question_id\":38143,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`" }, { "id": 39224, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-08-31 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US start building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US start building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-start-building-a-nuclear-powered-data-center-on-a-military-base-before-2029", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:49.519040Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T05:57:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.927829Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:49.925979Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T07:27:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T07:27:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T02:17:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T14:43:18Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T05:57:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38566, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-08-31 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:49.519452Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T05:57:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T07:27:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T07:27:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T02:17:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T14:43:18Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-31T21:45:11.821875Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T07:27:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T07:27:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38164\n- Original question title: Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 28.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the process to build a nuclear-powered data center on a U.S. military base in the U.S. or its territories has started. The process is considered “started” when at least one of the following has happened:\n> \n> * a U.S. government agency or a private contractor publicly and credibly announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that construction has begun\n> * a Request for Proposal (RFP) has been issued\n> * project-specific funding has been approved\n> * site-specific preparatory activities (e.g., environmental assessments or groundbreaking) have commenced.\n> \n> If none of the above has happened before the deadline, this question will resolve as **No**, even if there is other evidence \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The data center must be intended to rely on the nuclear reactor as its primary power source. If the data center uses a hybrid power system, it qualifies as long as nuclear power provides at least 50% of its energy needs.\n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the project is later canceled.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The escalating energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies have spurred interest in nuclear power as a reliable, high-density energy source for data centers. [<u>Small modular reactors (SMRs)</u>](https://conservativeenergynetwork.org/cfa/small-modular-reactors/) and [<u>microreactors</u>](https://inl.gov/trending-topics/microreactors/), in particular, offer stable, low-carbon power suited for such facilities. U.S. military bases, with their secure infrastructure and existing experience with nuclear technology (e.g., through the [<u>Department of Defense’s Project Pele for microreactors</u>](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/department-defense-breaks-ground-project-pele-microreactor)), are prime candidates for hosting such projects.\n> \n> The question’s significance is amplified by recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which began in 2025. As reported by Doomberg on May 22, 2025, [<u>Trump’s Executive Order 14215 aims to enhance presidential oversight over independent regulatory agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations), which has historically stifled nuclear development through its risk-averse linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This model assumes all radiation exposure is harmful, contributing to the approval of only two U.S. reactors under the NRC’s watch. Leaked drafts of follow-on orders suggest a “[<u>wholesale revision</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations)” of safety regulations to accelerate nuclear reactor construction, with the Department of Defense potentially leading efforts to build reactors on military bases. Notably, Trump may leverage the [<u>Defense Production Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) to designate AI data centers as “defense critical infrastructure,” enabling rapid deployment on military or Department of Energy facilities, potentially bypassing NRC oversight. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategic need to compete with [<u>China, which is poised to surpass the U.S. in nuclear power capacity by 2030</u>](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-on-track-to-become-top-nuclear-power-generator-by-2030) and advancement of AI development, partly due to its robust nuclear infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38164,\"question_id\":37459,\"last_cp\":0.28}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38164. If the community prediction on 2025-08-31 02:17:29 is higher than 28.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39224, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755499324.133947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755499324.133947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.45 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -32.30975500753621, "peer_score": -3.7313831436684293, "coverage": 0.9714115333115614, "relative_legacy_score": -0.1714875375492887, "weighted_coverage": 0.9714115333115614, "spot_peer_score": -4.148726183876208, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -32.30975500753621, "peer_archived_score": -3.7313831436684293, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.1714875375492887, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.148726183876208, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38164\n- Original question title: Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 28.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, the process to build a nuclear-powered data center on a U.S. military base in the U.S. or its territories has started. The process is considered “started” when at least one of the following has happened:\n> \n> * a U.S. government agency or a private contractor publicly and credibly announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that construction has begun\n> * a Request for Proposal (RFP) has been issued\n> * project-specific funding has been approved\n> * site-specific preparatory activities (e.g., environmental assessments or groundbreaking) have commenced.\n> \n> If none of the above has happened before the deadline, this question will resolve as **No**, even if there is other evidence \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The data center must be intended to rely on the nuclear reactor as its primary power source. If the data center uses a hybrid power system, it qualifies as long as nuclear power provides at least 50% of its energy needs.\n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** even if the project is later canceled.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The escalating energy demands of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and data-intensive technologies have spurred interest in nuclear power as a reliable, high-density energy source for data centers. [<u>Small modular reactors (SMRs)</u>](https://conservativeenergynetwork.org/cfa/small-modular-reactors/) and [<u>microreactors</u>](https://inl.gov/trending-topics/microreactors/), in particular, offer stable, low-carbon power suited for such facilities. U.S. military bases, with their secure infrastructure and existing experience with nuclear technology (e.g., through the [<u>Department of Defense’s Project Pele for microreactors</u>](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/department-defense-breaks-ground-project-pele-microreactor)), are prime candidates for hosting such projects.\n> \n> The question’s significance is amplified by recent policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second administration, which began in 2025. As reported by Doomberg on May 22, 2025, [<u>Trump’s Executive Order 14215 aims to enhance presidential oversight over independent regulatory agencies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations), which has historically stifled nuclear development through its risk-averse linear no-threshold (LNT) model. This model assumes all radiation exposure is harmful, contributing to the approval of only two U.S. reactors under the NRC’s watch. Leaked drafts of follow-on orders suggest a “[<u>wholesale revision</u>](https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/actuarial-examinations)” of safety regulations to accelerate nuclear reactor construction, with the Department of Defense potentially leading efforts to build reactors on military bases. Notably, Trump may leverage the [<u>Defense Production Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) to designate AI data centers as “defense critical infrastructure,” enabling rapid deployment on military or Department of Energy facilities, potentially bypassing NRC oversight. This aligns with the U.S.’s strategic need to compete with [<u>China, which is poised to surpass the U.S. in nuclear power capacity by 2030</u>](https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-on-track-to-become-top-nuclear-power-generator-by-2030) and advancement of AI development, partly due to its robust nuclear infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38164,\"question_id\":37459,\"last_cp\":0.28}}`" }, { "id": 39223, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 32.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-test-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:48.627083Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T19:20:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.540599Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:49.055530Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T20:50:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T20:50:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T19:06:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:25Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T19:20:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38565, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 32.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:48.627495Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T19:20:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T20:50:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T20:50:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T19:06:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:25Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:52.829639Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T20:50:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T20:50:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39006\n- Original question title: Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 32.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted On October 9, 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.\n> \n> At the time of this question, this is a total time period since the first test of 225 months that have passed since the first nuclear test. With 6 tests having been conducted, this is a base rate of 2.7% per month. \n> \n> According to the [2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf) on page 28 (emphasis added): \n> \n> > Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland and U.S. forces, citizens, and allies, and to weaken U.S. power in the AsiaPacific region, as evidenced by the pace of the North’s missile flight tests and the regime’s public touting of its uranium enrichment capabilities. **North Korea is probably prepared to conduct a nuclear test** and continues to flight test ICBMs so Kim can threaten the Homeland. Russia is increasingly supporting North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang’s support to Moscow’s war against Ukraine.\n> \n> This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to learn.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39006,\"question_id\":38348,\"last_cp\":0.32}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39006. If the community prediction on 2025-08-30 19:06:30 is higher than 32.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755549302.471544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.425 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755549302.471544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3940104166666667 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.226144774905052, "peer_score": 5.4575974441606325, "coverage": 0.975000451847359, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0007847449124095738, "weighted_coverage": 0.975000451847359, "spot_peer_score": 5.674112700496746, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 24.226144774905052, "peer_archived_score": 5.4575974441606325, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0007847449124095738, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.674112700496746, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39006\n- Original question title: Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 32.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.\n\nOriginal background: \n> North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted On October 9, 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.\n> \n> At the time of this question, this is a total time period since the first test of 225 months that have passed since the first nuclear test. With 6 tests having been conducted, this is a base rate of 2.7% per month. \n> \n> According to the [2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2025-Unclassified-Report.pdf) on page 28 (emphasis added): \n> \n> > Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland and U.S. forces, citizens, and allies, and to weaken U.S. power in the AsiaPacific region, as evidenced by the pace of the North’s missile flight tests and the regime’s public touting of its uranium enrichment capabilities. **North Korea is probably prepared to conduct a nuclear test** and continues to flight test ICBMs so Kim can threaten the Homeland. Russia is increasingly supporting North Korea’s nuclear status in exchange for Pyongyang’s support to Moscow’s war against Ukraine.\n> \n> This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback. The purpose is to learn.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39006,\"question_id\":38348,\"last_cp\":0.32}}`" }, { "id": 39222, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-08-31 for the Metaculus question 'Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-iranian-government-lose-power-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:47.749211Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T22:35:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.553641Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:48.168716Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:05:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:05:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T02:48:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T14:43:18Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T22:35:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38564, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-08-31 for the Metaculus question 'Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:47.749624Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T22:35:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-20T00:05:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-20T00:05:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T02:48:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-31T14:43:18Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-31T21:45:12.958710Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:05:58Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:05:58Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38770\n- Original question title: Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a state controlling the majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory as of July 1, 2025 meets both of the following criteria, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n> \n> 1. Neither Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian or the Guardian Council have formal political authority in the country.\n> 2. Iran's constitution does not refer to the state as an Islamic Republic.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if either a foreign country or no entity controls a majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory, even if the primary criteria has not been met.\n> \n> If the relevant state has no constitution, that will be sufficient to meet criterion 2.\n> \n> If the Guardian Council shares no members with its composition as of July 1, 2025, that will be considered sufficient to meet the requirement that it no longer holds political authority.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38770,\"question_id\":38067,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38770. If the community prediction on 2025-08-31 02:48:58 is higher than 7.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39222, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755648233.505122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755648233.505122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.38522448979591833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -44.88019635028061, "peer_score": 1.4765325855693048, "coverage": 0.9668713674280378, "relative_legacy_score": -0.10245376881419514, "weighted_coverage": 0.9668713674280378, "spot_peer_score": 0.8698042194031411, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -44.88019635028061, "peer_archived_score": 1.4765325855693048, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.10245376881419514, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8698042194031411, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38770\n- Original question title: Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a state controlling the majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory as of July 1, 2025 meets both of the following criteria, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n> \n> 1. Neither Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian or the Guardian Council have formal political authority in the country.\n> 2. Iran's constitution does not refer to the state as an Islamic Republic.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if either a foreign country or no entity controls a majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory, even if the primary criteria has not been met.\n> \n> If the relevant state has no constitution, that will be sufficient to meet criterion 2.\n> \n> If the Guardian Council shares no members with its composition as of July 1, 2025, that will be considered sufficient to meet the requirement that it no longer holds political authority.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38770,\"question_id\":38067,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`" }, { "id": 39221, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:46.885342Z", "published_at": "2025-08-22T05:17:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.660549Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:47.305833Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:47:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:47:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T15:51:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:31Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T05:17:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38563, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-08-29 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:46.885750Z", "open_time": "2025-08-22T05:17:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-22T06:47:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-22T06:47:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T15:51:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:31Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:53.566863Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:47:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T06:47:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783\n- Original question title: Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n> \n> > President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n> >  \n> > Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n> >  \n> > \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n> \n> NPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n> \n> > Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n> >  \n> > \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n> >  \n> > The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n> >  \n> > . . . \n> >  \n> > The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n> >  \n> > In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38783,\"question_id\":38099,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783. If the community prediction on 2025-08-29 15:51:07 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39221, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755843561.312108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755843561.312108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26540816326530614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.677400761632775, "peer_score": 3.883895630055705, "coverage": 0.9844671150048574, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0005116121338688942, "weighted_coverage": 0.9844671150048574, "spot_peer_score": 4.593757952796324, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 56.677400761632775, "peer_archived_score": 3.883895630055705, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0005116121338688942, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.593757952796324, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38783\n- Original question title: Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n> \n> > President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n> >  \n> > Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n> >  \n> > \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n> \n> NPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n> \n> > Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n> >  \n> > \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n> >  \n> > The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n> >  \n> > . . . \n> >  \n> > The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n> >  \n> > In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38783,\"question_id\":38099,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 39220, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-over-23-of-the-eu-recognize-palestine-before-july-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:46.027148Z", "published_at": "2025-08-18T10:14:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.077620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:46.435659Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T11:44:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T11:44:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T07:48:46Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T10:14:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38562, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 66.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:46.027558Z", "open_time": "2025-08-18T10:14:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-18T11:44:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-18T11:44:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T07:48:46Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:54.486330Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-18T11:44:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-18T11:44:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 66.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.66}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940. If the community prediction on 2025-08-30 07:48:46 is higher than 66.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755517038.578222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755517038.578222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.49244680851063827 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.619736377377843, "peer_score": 6.989628485451953, "coverage": 0.9374525222071896, "relative_legacy_score": 0.06660795599120777, "weighted_coverage": 0.9374525222071896, "spot_peer_score": 9.125297476403563, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "baseline_archived_score": 7.619736377377843, "peer_archived_score": 6.989628485451953, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.06660795599120777, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.125297476403563, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 66.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.66}}`" }, { "id": 39219, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Maxwell testify on the Epstein Files or Trumpin Congress before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Maxwell testify on the Epstein Files or Trumpin Congress before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-maxwell-testify-on-the-epstein-files-or-trumpin-congress-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:45.074606Z", "published_at": "2025-08-21T06:01:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.883770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:45.485669Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-21T07:31:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-21T07:31:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T05:08:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T06:01:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38561, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-08-24 for the Metaculus question 'Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:45.075016Z", "open_time": "2025-08-21T06:01:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T07:31:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T07:31:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T05:08:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:55.436928Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-21T07:31:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-21T07:31:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38916\n- Original question title: Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ghislaine Maxwell has testified under oath at a hearing, in person or remotely, in either the US House of Representatives or US Senate regarding either what is popularly known as the Epstein Files (defined in the Fine Print) or Donald Trump’s association with Epstein.\n> \n> The question resolves as **No** if this does not occur before that date. It may also resolve as **No** in the event of Maxwell being permanently unable to testify, such as her death.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The Epstein Files [is defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list) any of the evidence of criminal cases on the part of Jeffrey Epstein or any of his clients or associates, including but not limited to his contacts list or his flight logs.\n> * Any questioning regarding Donald Trump’s association with Epstein, including Maxwell denying or failing to recall any such association will count.\n> * In order to count, a hearing must include oral questioning by House members or Senators. Any hearing qualifies, including public, closed, or even secret hearings, as long as credible sources report before January 1, 2026 that Maxwell testified under oath regarding the Epstein Files or Trump's association with Epstein.\n> * Depositions do not count. Maxwell must appear at a hearing for this question to resolve as Yes.\n> * Maxwell invoking her Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination, even if invoked on every question, will not affect resolution. \n\nOriginal background: \n> According to the [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2025/07/22/us-news/house-oversight-committee-to-subpoena-ghislaine-maxwell-for-testimony/) on July 22, 2025: \n> \n> > The powerful GOP-led House Oversight Committee will “seek to subpoena” convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell for testimony about the Jeffrey Epstein case “as expeditiously as possible,” a spokesperson confirmed Tuesday.\n> \n> > Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote.\n> \n> > “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said.\n> \n> Maxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad. \n> \n> President Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a \"SCAM\" and a \"hoax.\" According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years.\n> \n> Alan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell:\n> \n> > She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38916,\"question_id\":38264,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38916. If the community prediction on 2025-08-24 05:08:06 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39219, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755760477.065672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755760477.065672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2814000000000001 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.19869434805917, "peer_score": 7.103334494234735, "coverage": 0.9829772253831228, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00037758651407444996, "weighted_coverage": 0.9829772253831228, "spot_peer_score": 6.46118946682381, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 57.19869434805917, "peer_archived_score": 7.103334494234735, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00037758651407444996, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.46118946682381, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38916\n- Original question title: Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ghislaine Maxwell has testified under oath at a hearing, in person or remotely, in either the US House of Representatives or US Senate regarding either what is popularly known as the Epstein Files (defined in the Fine Print) or Donald Trump’s association with Epstein.\n> \n> The question resolves as **No** if this does not occur before that date. It may also resolve as **No** in the event of Maxwell being permanently unable to testify, such as her death.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The Epstein Files [is defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list) any of the evidence of criminal cases on the part of Jeffrey Epstein or any of his clients or associates, including but not limited to his contacts list or his flight logs.\n> * Any questioning regarding Donald Trump’s association with Epstein, including Maxwell denying or failing to recall any such association will count.\n> * In order to count, a hearing must include oral questioning by House members or Senators. Any hearing qualifies, including public, closed, or even secret hearings, as long as credible sources report before January 1, 2026 that Maxwell testified under oath regarding the Epstein Files or Trump's association with Epstein.\n> * Depositions do not count. Maxwell must appear at a hearing for this question to resolve as Yes.\n> * Maxwell invoking her Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination, even if invoked on every question, will not affect resolution. \n\nOriginal background: \n> According to the [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2025/07/22/us-news/house-oversight-committee-to-subpoena-ghislaine-maxwell-for-testimony/) on July 22, 2025: \n> \n> > The powerful GOP-led House Oversight Committee will “seek to subpoena” convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell for testimony about the Jeffrey Epstein case “as expeditiously as possible,” a spokesperson confirmed Tuesday.\n> \n> > Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote.\n> \n> > “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said.\n> \n> Maxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad. \n> \n> President Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a \"SCAM\" and a \"hoax.\" According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years.\n> \n> Alan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell:\n> \n> > She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38916,\"question_id\":38264,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 39218, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:44.328011Z", "published_at": "2025-08-27T02:25:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.725557Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:44.615457Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:08:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "open_time": "2025-08-27T02:25:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38560, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:44.328428Z", "open_time": "2025-08-27T02:25:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:08:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:56.368861Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768\n- Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 1.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention.\n> \n> Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping. \n> \n> In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal)\n> \n> In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38768,\"question_id\":38065,\"last_cp\":0.011}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768. If the community prediction on 2025-08-27 12:08:16 is higher than 1.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39218, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756266209.881574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756266209.881574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.36328000000000005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -61.81992934815835, "peer_score": 21.69263222574397, "coverage": 0.980801478712647, "relative_legacy_score": -0.17931650240982447, "weighted_coverage": 0.980801478712647, "spot_peer_score": 20.01595453169401, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -61.81992934815835, "peer_archived_score": 21.69263222574397, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.17931650240982447, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.01595453169401, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768\n- Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 1.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention.\n> \n> Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping. \n> \n> In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal)\n> \n> In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38768,\"question_id\":38065,\"last_cp\":0.011}}`" } ] }