Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=100
{ "count": 6210, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "results": [ { "id": 40168, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Bitcoin rise in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Bitcoin rise in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-bitcoin-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:33.085921Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T08:24:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:16.925223Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:33.516486Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T09:54:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T09:54:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T01:52:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T01:52:26Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T08:24:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39704, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:33.086333Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T08:24:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T09:54:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T09:54:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T01:52:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T01:52:26Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:16.320456Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T09:54:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T09:54:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35573\n- Original question title: Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the price of Bitcoin at the end of December 31st, 2025 (or the last available day of record) is above $93,429.20, according to the Closing value on its [ <u>page on CoinMarketCap</u> ](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If CoinMarketCap does not publish this data by January 7th, 2026, this question will be resolved based on [ <u>CoinGecko data</u> ](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data). If CoinGecko also does not publish this data, this question will be resolved based on a credible alternative source.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Bitcoin is the most well-known cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization. Its price is highly volatile and can fluctuate rapidly due to regulatory, demand, and speculative factors. In 2024, bitcoin is up by approximately 125%. In 2025, President Donald Trump has taken <u>a [ pro-crypto stance</u> ](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), issuing an executive order to promote digital assets and explore new regulations. The Trump administration aims to position the US as a leader in digital financial technology, which could boost cryptocurrencies.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35573,\"question_id\":35023,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35573). If the community prediction on 2025-10-15 01:52:26 is higher than 86.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40168, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759657742.238106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759657742.238106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6254055829228242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 16.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -51.90937000101838, "peer_score": 2.2891515137309404, "coverage": 0.9745040216710833, "relative_legacy_score": -0.005997671602165214, "weighted_coverage": 0.9745040216710833, "spot_peer_score": 2.891787056144306, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -51.90937000101838, "peer_archived_score": 2.2891515137309404, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.005997671602165214, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.891787056144306, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35573\n- Original question title: Will Bitcoin close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the price of Bitcoin at the end of December 31st, 2025 (or the last available day of record) is above $93,429.20, according to the Closing value on its [ <u>page on CoinMarketCap</u> ](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If CoinMarketCap does not publish this data by January 7th, 2026, this question will be resolved based on [ <u>CoinGecko data</u> ](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data). If CoinGecko also does not publish this data, this question will be resolved based on a credible alternative source.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Bitcoin is the most well-known cryptocurrency with the largest market capitalization. Its price is highly volatile and can fluctuate rapidly due to regulatory, demand, and speculative factors. In 2024, bitcoin is up by approximately 125%. In 2025, President Donald Trump has taken <u>a [ pro-crypto stance</u> ](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/trump-signs-order-create-cryptocurrency-working-group-2025-01-23/), issuing an executive order to promote digital assets and explore new regulations. The Trump administration aims to position the US as a leader in digital financial technology, which could boost cryptocurrencies.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35573,\"question_id\":35023,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`" }, { "id": 40167, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-10-18 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PSOE ahead of PP in polls at the end of 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PSOE ahead of PP in polls at the end of 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-psoe-ahead-of-pp-in-polls-at-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:32.311418Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T04:22:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:17.791784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:32.723061Z", "comment_count": 99, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T05:52:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T05:52:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T00:21:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T00:21:47Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T04:22:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39703, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-10-18 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:32.312102Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T04:22:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T05:52:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T05:52:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T00:21:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-18T00:21:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:17.172086Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T05:52:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T05:52:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262\n- Original question title: Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the graph of the average of polls for the General Elections in Spain, maintained by [ <u>Politico Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PSOE is ahead of the PP in the average voting intention for December 31, 2025. It will be resolved as **No** if the PP is ahead of the PSOE or if they are tied.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • Any changes to Politico’s methodology will not affect the resolution of the question.\n> \n> • If Politico has not published a value for December 31, 2025 by January 7, 2025, this question will be resolved based on the most recent value for 2025, as long as it is after November 30, 2025. If no such value is published by December 31, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35262,\"question_id\":34746,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262). If the community prediction on 2025-10-18 00:21:47 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40167, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759297833.05114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759297833.05114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.33999999999999997 ], "means": [ 0.3731453703703703 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.611840412969734, "peer_score": 10.524449053262355, "coverage": 0.9656972573863135, "relative_legacy_score": 0.18627005383511386, "weighted_coverage": 0.9656972573863135, "spot_peer_score": 12.260263674324285, "spot_baseline_score": 40.05379295837285, "baseline_archived_score": 37.611840412969734, "peer_archived_score": 10.524449053262355, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.18627005383511386, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.260263674324285, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.05379295837285 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262\n- Original question title: Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the graph of the average of polls for the General Elections in Spain, maintained by [ <u>Politico Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PSOE is ahead of the PP in the average voting intention for December 31, 2025. It will be resolved as **No** if the PP is ahead of the PSOE or if they are tied.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • Any changes to Politico’s methodology will not affect the resolution of the question.\n> \n> • If Politico has not published a value for December 31, 2025 by January 7, 2025, this question will be resolved based on the most recent value for 2025, as long as it is after November 30, 2025. If no such value is published by December 31, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35262,\"question_id\":34746,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40166, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 18.80% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-stronger-2025-atlantic-hurricane-than-erin", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:31.165032Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T22:04:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:18.649499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:31.780202Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T23:34:14Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T23:34:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T14:01:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T14:01:48Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T22:04:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39702, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 18.80% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:31.165472Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T22:04:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T23:34:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T23:34:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T14:01:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T14:01:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:18.019631Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T23:34:14Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T23:34:14Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39771\n- Original question title: Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 18.80%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).\n\nOriginal background: \n> In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n> \n> Still, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214,\"last_cp\":0.188}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39771). If the community prediction on 2025-10-15 14:01:48 is higher than 18.80%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40166, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759706879.926997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759706879.926997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.30683716475095774 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.239937520279746, "peer_score": 4.844615140544413, "coverage": 0.961056426498625, "relative_legacy_score": -0.07805283543525608, "weighted_coverage": 0.961056426498625, "spot_peer_score": 4.2175648767962866, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 46.239937520279746, "peer_archived_score": 4.844615140544413, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.07805283543525608, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.2175648767962866, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39771\n- Original question title: Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 18.80%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).\n\nOriginal background: \n> In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n> \n> Still, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214,\"last_cp\":0.188}}`" }, { "id": 40165, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-10-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:30.491823Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T01:08:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:19.569304Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:30.825697Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T02:38:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T02:38:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T09:04:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T09:04:15Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T01:08:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39701, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-10-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:30.492272Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T01:08:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T02:38:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T02:38:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T09:04:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T09:04:15Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:18.893659Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T02:38:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T02:38:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336). If the community prediction on 2025-10-17 09:04:15 is higher than 16.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40165, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759199839.747943, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759199839.747943, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4771952811244983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.000174505993174, "peer_score": -1.7338582720501576, "coverage": 0.9438062681533673, "relative_legacy_score": -0.08570154733828829, "weighted_coverage": 0.9438062681533673, "spot_peer_score": -1.4696618089275277, "spot_baseline_score": -25.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -6.000174505993174, "peer_archived_score": -1.7338582720501576, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.08570154733828829, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.4696618089275277, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.15387669959645 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39336\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`" }, { "id": 40164, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2025-10-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:29.727038Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T13:35:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:20.541168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:30.097700Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T15:05:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T15:05:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T02:59:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T02:59:48Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T13:35:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39700, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2025-10-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:29.727536Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T13:35:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T15:05:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T15:05:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T02:59:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T02:59:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:19.942996Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T15:05:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T15:05:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822\n- Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n> \n> If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n> \n> Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n> \n> > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n> \n> > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n> \n> > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> > \n> > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n> \n> A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38822,\"question_id\":38143,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822). If the community prediction on 2025-10-17 02:59:48 is higher than 24.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40164, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759157374.015744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759157374.015744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3091325301204819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.090917938631016, "peer_score": 6.671747657539215, "coverage": 0.9964569266637165, "relative_legacy_score": -0.007352764197860788, "weighted_coverage": 0.9964569266637165, "spot_peer_score": 6.452987917518921, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 48.090917938631016, "peer_archived_score": 6.671747657539215, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.007352764197860788, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.452987917518921, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38822\n- Original question title: Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n> \n> If there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n> \n> Form 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n> \n> > Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n> \n> > The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n> \n> > It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> > \n> > As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n> \n> A purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38822,\"question_id\":38143,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`" }, { "id": 40163, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 40.00% on 2025-10-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-inditex-top-10-in-eu-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:28.955900Z", "published_at": "2025-10-07T07:23:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:21.338389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:29.327329Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:53:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:53:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T03:39:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T03:39:29Z", "open_time": "2025-10-07T07:23:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39699, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 40.00% on 2025-10-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:28.956320Z", "open_time": "2025-10-07T07:23:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-07T08:53:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-07T08:53:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T03:39:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T03:39:29Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:20.777722Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:53:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:53:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571\n- Original question title: Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 40.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n> * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Inditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021,\"last_cp\":0.4}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). If the community prediction on 2025-10-16 03:39:29 is higher than 40.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40163, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759826534.012778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.515 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759826534.012778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42138981173864903 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 23.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -34.48761213847807, "peer_score": -1.7191835448097743, "coverage": 0.9849827903729899, "relative_legacy_score": -0.17701511233016165, "weighted_coverage": 0.9849827903729899, "spot_peer_score": 0.01214960480535146, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -34.48761213847807, "peer_archived_score": -1.7191835448097743, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.17701511233016165, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.01214960480535146, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571\n- Original question title: Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 40.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n> * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Inditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021,\"last_cp\":0.4}}`" }, { "id": 40162, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alina-habba-still-us-attorney-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:28.209933Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T06:02:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:22.196600Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:28.555599Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T07:32:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T07:32:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T16:20:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T16:20:31Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T06:02:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39698, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:28.210602Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T06:02:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T07:32:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T07:32:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T16:20:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T16:20:31Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:21.581790Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T07:32:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T07:32:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756). If the community prediction on 2025-10-15 16:20:31 is higher than 55.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40162, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759130115.902024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759130115.902024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4289760536398467 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 18.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -22.91577351123266, "peer_score": 1.0408858767214815, "coverage": 0.9517388661260959, "relative_legacy_score": -0.060949806305437254, "weighted_coverage": 0.9517388661260959, "spot_peer_score": 1.7667700997253089, "spot_baseline_score": -25.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -22.91577351123266, "peer_archived_score": 1.0408858767214815, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.060949806305437254, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7667700997253089, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.15387669959645 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 40161, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 93.70% on 2025-10-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Microsoft stock rise in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Microsoft stock rise in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-microsoft-stock-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:27.460252Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T14:45:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:23.345272Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:27.832086Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:15:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-07T15:38:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-07T15:38:13Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T14:45:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39697, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 93.70% on 2025-10-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:27.460665Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T14:45:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T16:15:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T16:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-07T15:38:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-07T15:38:13Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:22.443187Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:15:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:15:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35575\n- Original question title: Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 93.70%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if Microsoft's stock price at the close of the last business day of 2025 (on the primary exchange where it is listed, NASDAQ) exceeds $421.50, according to the Close/Last column on [ <u>its NASDAQ page</u> ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/msft/historical). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If NASDAQ does not publish this data by January 7, 2026, Yahoo Finance or a credible alternative source will be used.\n> * The price will be adjusted in the event of stock splits or reverse splits.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Microsoft is one of the largest technology companies in the world, known for its software products as well as its cloud platform. By 2024, Microsoft's share price is expected to rise by approximately 50%, driven by significant advances in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The company has integrated AI into all of its services, improving productivity tools and cloud solutions, consolidating its position as a leader in the AI sector.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35575,\"question_id\":35025,\"last_cp\":0.937}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35575). If the community prediction on 2025-10-07 15:38:13 is higher than 93.70%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40161, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759162473.466042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.5289285714285714 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759162473.466042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.5289285714285714 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4710714285714286, 0.5289285714285714 ], "means": [ 0.5026403361344537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 8.041482210688324, "peer_score": 11.036300913621956, "coverage": 0.9863562714612043, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04383298979126818, "weighted_coverage": 0.9863562714612043, "spot_peer_score": 11.28958795503244, "spot_baseline_score": 8.11448134565189, "baseline_archived_score": 8.041482210688324, "peer_archived_score": 11.036300913621956, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04383298979126818, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.28958795503244, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.11448134565189 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35575\n- Original question title: Will Microsoft stock close 2025 higher than it started?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 93.70%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if Microsoft's stock price at the close of the last business day of 2025 (on the primary exchange where it is listed, NASDAQ) exceeds $421.50, according to the Close/Last column on [ <u>its NASDAQ page</u> ](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/msft/historical). It will be resolved as **No** if it is equal or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If NASDAQ does not publish this data by January 7, 2026, Yahoo Finance or a credible alternative source will be used.\n> * The price will be adjusted in the event of stock splits or reverse splits.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Microsoft is one of the largest technology companies in the world, known for its software products as well as its cloud platform. By 2024, Microsoft's share price is expected to rise by approximately 50%, driven by significant advances in artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The company has integrated AI into all of its services, improving productivity tools and cloud solutions, consolidating its position as a leader in the AI sector.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35575,\"question_id\":35025,\"last_cp\":0.937}}`" }, { "id": 40160, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 37.00% on 2025-10-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-white-house-revoke-media-credentials-for-2-outlets-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:26.749935Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T15:14:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:24.193130Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:27.106049Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:44:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:44:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T16:31:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T16:31:28Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T15:14:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39696, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 37.00% on 2025-10-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T22:07:26.750352Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T15:14:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T16:44:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T16:44:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T16:31:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T16:31:28Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:23.584057Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:44:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:44:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516\n- Original question title: Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 37.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n> \n> \\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n> \n> \\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34516,\"question_id\":34031,\"last_cp\":0.37}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516). If the community prediction on 2025-10-16 16:31:28 is higher than 37.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40160, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759163831.537587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759163831.537587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40574481792717104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 26.60777229554627, "peer_score": 6.943925118692641, "coverage": 0.9772809944329437, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00899828039452571, "weighted_coverage": 0.9772809944329437, "spot_peer_score": 5.6728694334377945, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 26.60777229554627, "peer_archived_score": 6.943925118692641, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00899828039452571, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.6728694334377945, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516\n- Original question title: Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-09-28: 37.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n> \n> \\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n> \n> \\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34516,\"question_id\":34031,\"last_cp\":0.37}}`" }, { "id": 40141, "title": "Will HOLX's market close price on 2025-10-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-03?", "short_title": "HOLX's close price rises?", "url_title": "HOLX's close price rises?", "slug": "holxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:50.131040Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T18:42:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:03:42.291026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:50.462085Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T20:12:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T20:12:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T08:49:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T08:49:21Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T18:42:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39677, "title": "Will HOLX's market close price on 2025-10-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-03?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:50.131448Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T18:42:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-03T20:12:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-03T20:12:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T08:49:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T08:49:21Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:03:41.329222Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T20:12:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T20:12:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hologic, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HOLX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:55) is 67.21. You can find more information about Hologic, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HOLX\n\nHologic, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. It provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load assays for Hepatitis B virus, Hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and human cytomegalo virus; Aptima bacterial vaginosis and candida vaginitis assays for the diagnosis of vaginitis; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays to detect SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for cytology applications; and Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth. The company also offers breast cancer care solutions in the areas of radiology, breast surgery, pathology, and treatment, such as 3D digital mammography systems, image analytics software, reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems, breast biopsy site markers, localization, and specimen radiology solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, it provides MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids and polyps in the uterus; NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures; Acessa ProVu system to treat various fibroids; and CoolSeal portfolio, such as bipolar vessel sealing devices. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. It sells its products through direct sales, service forces, independent distributors, and sales representatives. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HOLX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of HOLX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-03, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is HOLX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:55) is 67.21. You can find more information about Hologic, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HOLX\n\nHologic, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and supply of diagnostics products, medical imaging systems, and surgical products for women's health through early detection and treatment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Diagnostics, Breast Health, GYN Surgical, and Skeletal Health. It provides Aptima molecular diagnostic assays to detect the infectious microorganisms; Aptima viral load assays for Hepatitis B virus, Hepatitis C virus, human immunodeficiency virus, and human cytomegalo virus; Aptima bacterial vaginosis and candida vaginitis assays for the diagnosis of vaginitis; Aptima SARS-CoV-2 and Panther Fusion SARS-CoV-2 assays to detect SARS-CoV-2; ThinPrep System for cytology applications; and Rapid Fetal Fibronectin Test that assists physicians in assessing the risk of pre-term birth. The company also offers breast cancer care solutions in the areas of radiology, breast surgery, pathology, and treatment, such as 3D digital mammography systems, image analytics software, reading workstations, minimally invasive breast biopsy guidance systems, breast biopsy site markers, localization, and specimen radiology solutions; and breast conserving surgery products. In addition, it provides MyoSure Hysteroscopic Tissue Removal System for the removal of fibroids and polyps in the uterus; NovaSure Endometrial Ablation System to treat abnormal uterine bleeding; Fluent Fluid Management System that provides liquid distention during diagnostic and operative hysteroscopic procedures; Acessa ProVu system to treat various fibroids; and CoolSeal portfolio, such as bipolar vessel sealing devices. Further, it offers Horizon DXA, a dual energy X-ray system; and Fluoroscan Insight FD mini C-arm to perform minimally invasive orthopedic surgical procedures. It sells its products through direct sales, service forces, independent distributors, and sales representatives. 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It's ticker is TPL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:54) is 954.28. You can find more information about Texas Pacific Land Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TPL\n\nTexas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin. This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements. In addition, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche, sand, and other material, as well as sells land. The Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds produced water royalties. The company owns a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 16,000 additional net royalty acres, total of approximately 207,000 NRA located in the Permian Basin. Texas Pacific Land Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"TPL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of TPL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-07, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is TPL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:54) is 954.28. You can find more information about Texas Pacific Land Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TPL\n\nTexas Pacific Land Corporation engages in the land and resource management, and water services and operations businesses. The Land and Resource Management segment manages surface acres of land, and oil and gas royalty interest in Permian Basin. This segment also engages in easements, such as transporting oil, gas and related hydrocarbons, power line and utility, and subsurface wellbore easements. In addition, this segment leases its land for processing, storage, and compression facilities and roads; and is involved in sale of materials, such as caliche, sand, and other material, as well as sells land. The Water Services and Operations segment provides full-service water offerings, including water sourcing, produced-water treatment, infrastructure development, and disposal solutions to operators in the Permian Basin. This segment also holds produced water royalties. The company owns a 1/128th nonparticipating perpetual oil and gas royalty interest (NPRI) under approximately 85,000 acres of land; a 1/16th NPRI under approximately 371,000 acres of land; and approximately 16,000 additional net royalty acres, total of approximately 207,000 NRA located in the Permian Basin. 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It's ticker is INVH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:52) is 29.18. You can find more information about Invitation Homes Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INVH\n\nInvitation Homes, an S&P 500 company, is the nation's premier single-family home leasing and management company, meeting changing lifestyle demands by providing access to high-quality homes with valued features such as close proximity to jobs and access to good schools. Our purpose, Unlock the power of home, reflects our commitment to providing living solutions and Genuine CARE to the growing share of people who count on the flexibility and savings of leasing a home.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"INVH\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of INVH. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. 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It's ticker is ERIE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:51) is 315.99. You can find more information about Erie Indemnity Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIE\n\nErie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ERIE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ERIE. 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It's ticker is ERIE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:51) is 315.99. You can find more information about Erie Indemnity Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIE\n\nErie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. 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It's ticker is LMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:49) is 487.44. You can find more information about Lockheed Martin Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT\n\nLockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control (MFC); Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS); and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies. The MFC segment provides air and missile defense systems; tactical missiles and precision strike weapon systems; logistics; fire control systems; mission operations support, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. 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It's ticker is LMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:49) is 487.44. You can find more information about Lockheed Martin Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LMT\n\nLockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control (MFC); Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS); and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies. The MFC segment provides air and missile defense systems; tactical missiles and precision strike weapon systems; logistics; fire control systems; mission operations support, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. 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It's ticker is LDOS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:47) is 184.9. You can find more information about Leidos Holdings, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LDOS\n\nLeidos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions for government and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The National Security & Digital segment provides national security software; services by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to coordinate sea, ground, air, and space to help warfighters; offensive, defensive, and physical cyber operation solutions; intelligence analysis, operational support, logistics operations, security, linguistics, force production, biometrics, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives, energetics, training, and IT services and solutions; and Digital Modernization and transformation services. 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It's ticker is LDOS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:47) is 184.9. You can find more information about Leidos Holdings, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LDOS\n\nLeidos Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides services and solutions for government and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The National Security & Digital segment provides national security software; services by using artificial intelligence and machine learning to coordinate sea, ground, air, and space to help warfighters; offensive, defensive, and physical cyber operation solutions; intelligence analysis, operational support, logistics operations, security, linguistics, force production, biometrics, chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives, energetics, training, and IT services and solutions; and Digital Modernization and transformation services. 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It's ticker is ALGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:46) is 126.19. You can find more information about Align Technology, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALGN\n\nAlign Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. 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It's ticker is ALGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:46) is 126.19. You can find more information about Align Technology, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALGN\n\nAlign Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. 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It's ticker is AVY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:44) is 160.75. You can find more information about Avery Dennison Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVY\n\nAvery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, Latin America, and internationally. It provides pressure-sensitive label materials, which consist of papers, plastic films, and metal foils; performance tapes products, including mechanical fasteners, which are precision-extruded and injection-molded plastic devices used in various automotive, general industrial, and retail applications; and other pressure-sensitive adhesive-based materials and converted products under the Fasson, JAC, and Avery Dennison brands. The company also offers graphics and reflective products that include films and other products for the architectural, commercial sign, digital printing, and other related market segments; durable cast and reflective films to the construction, automotive, and fleet transportation markets; sign shops, commercial printers, and designers for a range of pressure-sensitive materials; reflective films for traffic and safety applications; and pressure-sensitive vinyl and specialty materials for digital imaging, screen printing, and sign cutting applications under the Avery Dennison and Mactac brand names. In addition, it provides branding solutions, which include brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags, labels, and sustainable packaging; and information solutions, such as item-level RFID, visibility and loss prevention, price ticketing and marking, productivity and media, and brand protection and security solutions, as well as care, content, and country of origin compliance solutions. It serves home and personal care, apparel, general retail, e-commerce, logistics, food and grocery, pharmaceuticals, and automotive industries. The company was formerly known as Avery International Corporation and changed its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990. Avery Dennison Corporation was founded in 1935 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AVY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of AVY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is AVY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:44) is 160.75. You can find more information about Avery Dennison Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVY\n\nAvery Dennison Corporation operates as a materials science and digital identification solutions company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, Asia, Latin America, and internationally. It provides pressure-sensitive label materials, which consist of papers, plastic films, and metal foils; performance tapes products, including mechanical fasteners, which are precision-extruded and injection-molded plastic devices used in various automotive, general industrial, and retail applications; and other pressure-sensitive adhesive-based materials and converted products under the Fasson, JAC, and Avery Dennison brands. The company also offers graphics and reflective products that include films and other products for the architectural, commercial sign, digital printing, and other related market segments; durable cast and reflective films to the construction, automotive, and fleet transportation markets; sign shops, commercial printers, and designers for a range of pressure-sensitive materials; reflective films for traffic and safety applications; and pressure-sensitive vinyl and specialty materials for digital imaging, screen printing, and sign cutting applications under the Avery Dennison and Mactac brand names. In addition, it provides branding solutions, which include brand embellishments, graphic tickets, tags, labels, and sustainable packaging; and information solutions, such as item-level RFID, visibility and loss prevention, price ticketing and marking, productivity and media, and brand protection and security solutions, as well as care, content, and country of origin compliance solutions. It serves home and personal care, apparel, general retail, e-commerce, logistics, food and grocery, pharmaceuticals, and automotive industries. The company was formerly known as Avery International Corporation and changed its name to Avery Dennison Corporation in 1990. 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It's ticker is TDY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:43) is 577.11. You can find more information about Teledyne Technologies Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TDY\n\nTeledyne Technologies Incorporated provides enabling technologies for industrial growth markets in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its Digital Imaging segment provides visible spectrum sensors and digital cameras; and infrared, ultraviolet, visible, and X-ray spectra products, as well as micro electromechanical systems and semiconductors, including analog-to-digital and digital-to-analog converters. This segment offers cooled and uncooled infrared or thermal products, including sensors, camera cores, and camera systems; high-resolution, low-dose X-ray sensors, high-power microwave, and high-energy X-ray subsystems; and instruments for the measurement of physical properties and maritime products, as well as develops and manufactures multi-spectrum electro-optic/infrared imaging systems and associated products, such as lasers, optics, and radars, CBRNE (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear and Explosive detectors), and unmanned air and ground systems. The company's Instrumentation segment offers monitoring, control, and electronic test and measurement equipment; and power and communications connectivity devices for distributed instrumentation systems and sensor networks. 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It's ticker is TDY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:43) is 577.11. You can find more information about Teledyne Technologies Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TDY\n\nTeledyne Technologies Incorporated provides enabling technologies for industrial growth markets in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. Its Digital Imaging segment provides visible spectrum sensors and digital cameras; and infrared, ultraviolet, visible, and X-ray spectra products, as well as micro electromechanical systems and semiconductors, including analog-to-digital and digital-to-analog converters. 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The company's Aerospace and Defense Electronics segment provides electronic components and subsystems, data acquisition and communications components and equipment, harsh environment interconnects, general aviation batteries, and other components; and onboard avionics systems and ground-based applications, aircraft data and connectivity solutions, hardware systems, and software applications. Its Engineered Systems segment offers systems engineering and integration, technology development, and manufacturing solutions for defense, space, environmental, and energy applications; and designs and manufactures electrochemical energy systems and electronics for military applications. 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It's ticker is FOX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:40) is 55.29. You can find more information about Fox Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FOX\n\nFox Corporation operates as a news, sports, and entertainment company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Cable Network Programming, Television, Credible, and The FOX Studio Lot. The Cable Network Programming segment produces and licenses news and sports content for distribution through traditional cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators, telecommunication companies, virtual multi-channel video programming distributors, and other digital platforms. Its Television segment produces, acquires, markets, and distributes programming through the FOX broadcast network, advertising-supported video-on-demand service Tubi, and operates full power broadcast television stations, including duopolies and other digital platforms. 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