Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=100
{ "count": 5510, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "results": [ { "id": 38111, "title": "Will a UN member country newly recognize Palestine in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-un-member-country-newly-recognize-palestine-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.900239Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:55.038596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37417, "title": "Will a UN member country newly recognize Palestine in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.900239Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T23:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T23:30:48.320446Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[UK joins France's initiative for recognition of Palestinian state](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/05/20/uk-joins-france-s-initiative-for-recognition-of-palestinian-state_6741456_4.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after May 31, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, a UN member country announces that it recognizes Palestine as a sovereign nation. Resolves based on Al Jazeera's [tracking page](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/10/mapping-which-countries-recognise-palestine-in-2025) or other credible sources should the tracking page not be timely updated.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748675876.905096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748675876.905096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5689407093174954 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1941378799360505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6605878917129421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13747443227290793, 0.0, 1.1253545677530647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5927213542612971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.76412901482709, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[UK joins France's initiative for recognition of Palestinian state](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/05/20/uk-joins-france-s-initiative-for-recognition-of-palestinian-state_6741456_4.html)" }, { "id": 38110, "title": "Will Benin re-open its closed land border crossings with Nigeria's Kwara state before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-benin-re-open-its-closed-land-border-crossings-with-nigerias-kwara-state-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.895802Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:45.121816Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37416, "title": "Will Benin re-open its closed land border crossings with Nigeria's Kwara state before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.895802Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:18:51.613457Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Exclusive: Benin Rep. Closes Land Borders With Nigerian Communities Over Soya, Others' Exportation](https://www.legit.ng/nigeria/1654107-exclusive-benin-rep-closes-land-borders-nigerian-communities-soya-exportation/) | [BREAKING: Benin Republic Shuts Border With Kwara Communities Over Attacks By New Terror Group Mahmuda, Arms Smuggling – Sources](https://saharareporters.com/2025/05/08/breaking-benin-republic-shuts-border-kwara-communities-over-attacks-new-terror-group)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, Benin's land border crossings with Nigeria's Kwara state that were closed in May 2025 are [credibly](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reported to have been reopened.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748669420.833382, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748669420.833382, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22971679204287646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7567875495527383, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 1.0072709559498547, 0.0, 0.5176847893212264, 3.2864506431019596, 0.8007238388551874, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1054560116610548, 3.0404374660842053, 0.14966870988380016, 0.02643125667787829, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0, 0.7007643444329139, 0.7150025343476979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.208822378742234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.533912344628667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0670519103011393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.675274710717055, 0.0026106503329410956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.92546568941957, "peer_score": 4.4045431990869535, "coverage": 0.9836486620704332, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9836486620704332, "spot_peer_score": 4.648093340627275, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 66.92546568941957, "peer_archived_score": 4.4045431990869535, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.648093340627275, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Exclusive: Benin Rep. Closes Land Borders With Nigerian Communities Over Soya, Others' Exportation](https://www.legit.ng/nigeria/1654107-exclusive-benin-rep-closes-land-borders-nigerian-communities-soya-exportation/) | [BREAKING: Benin Republic Shuts Border With Kwara Communities Over Attacks By New Terror Group Mahmuda, Arms Smuggling – Sources](https://saharareporters.com/2025/05/08/breaking-benin-republic-shuts-border-kwara-communities-over-attacks-new-terror-group)" }, { "id": 38109, "title": "Will Kalshi offer markets on daily baseball games every day in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalshi-offer-markets-on-daily-baseball-games-every-day-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.891106Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:35.845541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", 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"2025-07-02T21:10:19.332700Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Las Vegas Review-Journal: [Judge says he’ll move quickly on Kalshi prediction market case](https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/casinos-gaming/judge-says-hell-move-quickly-on-kalshi-prediction-market-case-3374672/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, every day in June 2025, [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/?category=sports&tag=baseball) offers a real-money prediction market on at least one Major League Baseball game being played that day.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748662647.384869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748662647.384869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.5542732669242252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.11917266062120754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6275936801729672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2699958423549824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016456269758058238, 0.10721719787370454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003173881331863867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8105139050047294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33002786079907664, 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"will-doge-claim-a-total-savings-of-200-billion-or-more-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.886173Z", "published_at": "2025-05-31T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:19.229798Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": 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"visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37414, "title": "Will Doge claim a total savings of $200 billion or more on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.886173Z", "open_time": "2025-05-31T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T01:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T01:30:39.098721Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, 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"key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Post: [Tech guru admired by Elon Musk estimates ‘over $100 billion’ in taxpayer money is being wasted or stolen](https://nypost.com/2025/02/25/us-news/tech-guru-admired-by-elon-musk-estimates-over-100-billion-in-taxpayer-money-is-being-wasted-or-stolen/)" }, { "id": 38107, "title": "Will James Comey be arrested before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-james-comey-be-arrested-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.881222Z", "published_at": "2025-05-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:19.543890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": 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null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Secret Service Is Asking Comey About a Photo of Seashells Spelling ‘86 47’](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/us/politics/secret-service-comey-social-media-trump.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if former FBI director James Comey is arrested before July 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as Yes. For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \"An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave.\"", "post_id": 38107, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748647822.486869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05959936521175481 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748647822.486869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05959936521175481 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9404006347882452, 0.05959936521175481 ], "means": [ 0.0867421091788873 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13959566381946276, 1.396670355604409, 1.5756745782504726, 0.0, 5.456969137676682, 1.4919355978131126, 0.018408160151040805, 0.41806805342693354, 0.090515909635905, 1.621640527511162, 0.0, 0.22292615601209342, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 2.181397922674346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"description": "[Fetterman says he won’t resign, gets support from McCormick as article blowback continues](https://www.pennlive.com/news/2025/05/fetterman-says-he-wont-resign-gets-support-from-mccormick-as-article-blowback-continues.html) | [An isolated, angry Fetterman is yet another challenge for Democrats](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/16/john-fetterman-senate-relationships/)" }, { "id": 38092, "title": "At the end of June 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as \"currently\" blocking access to X (formerly Twitter)?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-end-of-june-2025-will-wikipedia-still-list-all-these-countries-as-currently-blocking-access-to-x-formerly-twitter", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.272330Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:51.590855Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, 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"actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-29T18:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-29T18:05:41.945597Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists X (formerly known as Twitter) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list X as currently being blocked in any of those countries, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.", "post_id": 38092, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748539027.843649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748539027.843649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.44114834148806337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699770170287534, 0.0, 0.7554658117724923, 0.2076148985543172, 0.12804351164029554, 0.11083301965526829, 0.0, 0.8230857706210846, 0.6356800736251341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03977831981835343, 0.6745576028193532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1807145231378893, 0.0, 0.418937989570227, 0.8931428143487806, 0.0, 1.0468913521741385, 0.10299702702416284, 0.03648615185565808, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0754658793500254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47295204745398656, 0.6735917253874267, 0.3770540593470678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34805835094389953, 0.0, 0.0003173881331863867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8948374224172492, 0.372204641838787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006599580203028017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7996155160257796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06018168915842613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5654667606195058, 0.0, 0.007237661463105871, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0150602432466386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30685582591597954, 0.3893908729670419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2744772724595874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04331287452455614, 0.668450178144051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9461206906142233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \"Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service when a government or authority submits a valid removal request to Twitter indicating that specific content published on the platform is illegal in their jurisdiction.\"" }, { "id": 38091, "title": "Will a country sign the Artemis Accords in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-country-sign-the-artemis-accords-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.122936Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:03.088022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37397, "title": "Will a country sign the Artemis Accords in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:07.122936Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T21:32:38.124130Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025 and [Norway](https://www.state.gov/united-states-welcomes-norways-signing-of-the-artemis-accords/) on May 15, 2025. There are 55 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. [(source)](https://www.state.gov/bureau-of-oceans-and-international-environmental-and-scientific-affairs/artemis-accords)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a country becomes an Artemis Accord signatory after May 30, 2025 and before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38091, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748532619.527949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6395 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748532619.527949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6395 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5000504487505147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012799377483163744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035304428452028283, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01810777154832202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6978562032252382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2059197659129008, 0.8469093040178143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5785379397317363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6375136813109524, 0.0, 0.5732909890758211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34401532613629704, 0.2904204131944944, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 0.0, 0.5823653821612322, 0.32941610215541206, 0.18373971926206425, 0.6650285010988738, 0.0, 0.6287855816333205, 0.0, 0.28054235495743307, 0.044581621487903636, 0.0, 1.5309571890489146, 0.37291857732980915, 0.675274710717055, 0.8007238388551874, 0.14966870988380016, 1.1577579407594198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7567875495527383, 0.44762040490108923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5351799653034296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2724816781631971, 0.0, 0.0865900293277089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.36849772084496, "peer_score": -12.05359723371053, "coverage": 0.9870188655455907, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9870188655455907, "spot_peer_score": -10.110936687638665, "spot_baseline_score": -8.926733809708741, "baseline_archived_score": -9.36849772084496, "peer_archived_score": -12.05359723371053, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.110936687638665, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.926733809708741 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most recent signatory was Bangladesh, on April 8, 2025 and [Norway](https://www.state.gov/united-states-welcomes-norways-signing-of-the-artemis-accords/) on May 15, 2025. There are 55 signatories at the time of this question: Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Colombia, the Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, the Republic of Korea, Romania, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uruguay. 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According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Pedro Sánchez has a higher approval rating than Recep Tayyip Erdoğan according to [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. If this not the case (including due to a tie), this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38089, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748518225.020225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5465 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748518225.020225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5465 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4535, 0.5465 ], "means": [ 0.5064537546698207 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010803794281517749, 0.0, 0.5351799653034296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.7150025343476979, 0.0, 0.10489672558046856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025798091485427513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7570020564449573, 0.0, 0.41531370677281154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0283884897938216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2789311482851085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9787307166658133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8872963291122897, 0.0, 0.19328601389646433, 0.8469093040178143, 0.8007238388551874, 0.967729728990434, 0.675274710717055, 1.0130338072952991, 0.0, 0.0, 2.200955073057781, 0.0, 0.49450713578515443, 0.0, 0.130111205499186, 0.8224544432267068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05254845534087888, 0.0, 0.13849716722364072, 0.5044513853022176, 0.18373971926206425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005313788500141374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048428294021351945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954458044908652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.700116132638378, "peer_score": 15.230508857188847, "coverage": 0.9855631457103624, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9855631457103624, "spot_peer_score": 14.494445398458511, "spot_baseline_score": 12.829340100981756, "baseline_archived_score": 13.700116132638378, "peer_archived_score": 15.230508857188847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.494445398458511, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 12.829340100981756 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. 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