Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1000
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1020", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=980", "results": [ { "id": 35463, "title": "Will Donald Trump grant executive clemency to more than 3 individuals in March 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-grant-executive-clemency-to-more-than-3-individuals-in-march-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.504693Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.115109Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34930, "title": "Will Donald Trump grant executive clemency to more than 3 individuals in March 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.504693Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T12:46:37.113374Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Please find base rate information [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald J. Trump grants [executive clemency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump#Trump's_second-term_use_of_executive_clemency) to greater than 3 individuals in March 2025.", "fine_print": "Partial pardons or clemencies count. They will only count if publicly disclosed. Wide-reaching blanket pardons or commutations also count.", "post_id": 35463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740628777.123129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740628777.123129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5883868753228164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6555864552042787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.1952363919068645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3576837837229991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.597139040115108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.6997062017903195, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.427064658361816, "peer_score": 21.33762578744648, "coverage": 0.982818335029814, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.982818335029814, "spot_peer_score": 26.827242978506913, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 10.427064658361816, "peer_archived_score": 21.33762578744648, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.827242978506913, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Please find base rate information [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump)." }, { "id": 35460, "title": "Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-argentinas-chamber-of-deputies-impeach-president-javier-milei-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.246506Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.264954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34927, "title": "Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.246506Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:55:27.071847Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 14 February 2025, the Panamanian company KIP Protocol created the [\\$LIBRA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%24Libra) token, as part of a project called [*Viva La Libertad*](https://www.vivalalibertadproject.com/es-ar). The token launch was not publicised by the company, but a few minutes after its creation Argentina's President [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei \"Javier Milei\") published on his official Instagram, Twitter and Facebook accounts, promoting it.\n\n\n\n\\[Translation:\n\nLiberal Argentina is growing!!!\nThis private project will be dedicated to promoting the growth of the Argentine economy by funding small businesses and Argentine entrepreneurs.\nThe world wants to invest in Argentina.\n\nvivalalibertadproject.com\n\nContract: Bo9jh3wsmcC2AjakLWzNmKJ3SgtZmXEcSaW7L2FAvUsU\n\n\\$LIBRA\n\nLONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!!]\n\nThe value of the token surged to \\$5.20 and plummeted shortly thereafter, the price plummeted, resulting in approximately \\$87 million in losses for around 74,000 investors.\n\nMilei then posted [the following tweet](https://x.com/JMilei/status/1890606683291779195) (translated):\n\n> A few hours ago I posted a tweet, as I have so many other times, supporting a supposed private enterprise with which I obviously have no connection whatsoever.\n> \n> I was not aware of the details of the project and after having become aware of it I decided not to continue spreading the word (that is why I deleted the tweet).\n> \n> To the filthy rats of the political caste who want to take advantage of this situation to do harm, I want to say that every day they confirm how vile politicians are, and they increase our conviction to kick them in the ass.\n> \n> VLLC!\n\nA timeline of the events can be found [here](https://cenital.com/el-minuto-a-minuto-del-memecoin-que-promociono-milei/) (in Spanish).\n\nOpposition members have accused Milei of a rug pull and [have claimed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9x9j89evxo) that they will initiate impeachment proceedings. In Argentina, the [Chamber of Deputies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Chamber_of_Deputies) (lower house) has the sole power to initiate impeachment proceedings and must approve articles of impeachment by a two-thirds majority vote.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the Chamber of Deputies approves one or more articles of impeachment against Javier Milei with the constitutionally required two-thirds majority vote, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The outcome of the trial in the Senate is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n\nPlease note that the English words *impeach, impeached* or *impeachment* are used for the Spanish word *el acusado* or *los acusados* as used in Article 59 of Argentina's constitution ([Spanish version](https://www.congreso.gob.ar/constitucionSeccion1Cap2.php), [English version](https://www.congreso.gob.ar/constitucionSeccion1Cap2_ingles.php))", "post_id": 35460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740588974.426292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740588974.426292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.167410530059811 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5384204261536507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 1.0494891510396038, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4438246487026023, 0.8331016997804591, 0.16103927879919655, 0.8981326213582779, 0.0, 1.508434767299033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3045797032284949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.14802096376434, "peer_score": 0.11799836733320607, "coverage": 0.9938231799999873, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9938231799999873, "spot_peer_score": 0.6838752655135575, "spot_baseline_score": 74.84612330040356, "baseline_archived_score": 76.14802096376434, "peer_archived_score": 0.11799836733320607, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6838752655135575, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 74.84612330040356 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 14 February 2025, the Panamanian company KIP Protocol created the [\\$LIBRA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%24Libra) token, as part of a project called [*Viva La Libertad*](https://www.vivalalibertadproject.com/es-ar). The token launch was not publicised by the company, but a few minutes after its creation Argentina's President [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei \"Javier Milei\") published on his official Instagram, Twitter and Facebook accounts, promoting it.\n\n\n\n\\[Translation:\n\nLiberal Argentina is growing!!!\nThis private project will be dedicated to promoting the growth of the Argentine economy by funding small businesses and Argentine entrepreneurs.\nThe world wants to invest in Argentina.\n\nvivalalibertadproject.com\n\nContract: Bo9jh3wsmcC2AjakLWzNmKJ3SgtZmXEcSaW7L2FAvUsU\n\n\\$LIBRA\n\nLONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!!]\n\nThe value of the token surged to \\$5.20 and plummeted shortly thereafter, the price plummeted, resulting in approximately \\$87 million in losses for around 74,000 investors.\n\nMilei then posted [the following tweet](https://x.com/JMilei/status/1890606683291779195) (translated):\n\n> A few hours ago I posted a tweet, as I have so many other times, supporting a supposed private enterprise with which I obviously have no connection whatsoever.\n> \n> I was not aware of the details of the project and after having become aware of it I decided not to continue spreading the word (that is why I deleted the tweet).\n> \n> To the filthy rats of the political caste who want to take advantage of this situation to do harm, I want to say that every day they confirm how vile politicians are, and they increase our conviction to kick them in the ass.\n> \n> VLLC!\n\nA timeline of the events can be found [here](https://cenital.com/el-minuto-a-minuto-del-memecoin-que-promociono-milei/) (in Spanish).\n\nOpposition members have accused Milei of a rug pull and [have claimed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9x9j89evxo) that they will initiate impeachment proceedings. In Argentina, the [Chamber of Deputies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Chamber_of_Deputies) (lower house) has the sole power to initiate impeachment proceedings and must approve articles of impeachment by a two-thirds majority vote." }, { "id": 35459, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-500th-richest-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-have-65-billion-or-more-on-march-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.211877Z", "published_at": "2025-02-26T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.229628Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34926, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.211877Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T23:49:08.620204Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.50B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after March 28, 2025, after 5:30 PM Eastern Time.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on the resolution date, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. 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"2025-02-26T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T23:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T23:09:55.098319Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.85, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Severe Drought Conditions for 22.6% of Nebraska Residents in 2024](https://www.easternprogress.com/severe-drought-conditions-for-22-6-of-nebraska-residents-in-2024/article_10004bbf-0710-54b0-abb9-a7d776ebec68.html?=/&subcategory=292%7CRock)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/nebraska) lists greater than or equal to 1.7 million Nebraska residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after March 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. 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living in drought on March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:10.119293Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T17:55:02.081448Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-26T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.85, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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"question": { "id": 34917, "title": "Will Donald Trump say \"AI\" or \"artificial intelligence\" in an address before a joint session of the US Congress on March 4, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-22T03:56:09.483505Z", "open_time": "2025-02-25T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-25T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-25T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T12:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-14T13:08:41.821328Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-25T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-25T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Washington Post: [Johnson invites Trump to address joint session of Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Donald_Trump_speech_to_a_joint_session_of_Congress)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on March 4, 2025 (Eastern US time), Donald Trump utters the term \"A.I.\" or \"artificial intelligence\" in a speech to a joint session of Congress. Determination of whether he has said either one will be at the sole discretion of the Metaculus Admin resolving the question. In cases of ambiguity they may consult a transcript from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the [American Presidency Project](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/annual-messages-congress-the-state-the-union). It is important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of either term, especially if it does not appear in a transcript per the credible sources policy linked above, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If this does not happen for any reason, whether because Trump does not say the required terms or because there is not a Donald Trump speech to a joint session of Congress on that date, this question resolves as **No**. Must happen during the speech, not before or after it; for example him saying one of the terms while walking into the Capitol would not count. Discussion of the subject matter, without actually using either term, will not count.", "post_id": 35450, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740448187.127964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4206666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740448187.127964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4206666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.40209471582456746 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.9969295375987468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.54031411994115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald J. Trump grants [executive clemency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_granted_executive_clemency_by_Donald_Trump#Trump's_second-term_use_of_executive_clemency) to greater than 2 individuals in February 2025.", "fine_print": "Partial pardons or clemencies count. They will only count if publicly disclosed. Wide-reaching blanket pardons or commutations also count.", "post_id": 35440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740436743.994355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740436743.994355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.33606797171403663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5551740074255822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1511868377135775, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8834525914497149, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.19330086451826228, 0.28307053233759993, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6656262792588051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 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"resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Luigi Mangione face the death penalty at the conclusion of his trial?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Luigi-Mangione-face-the-death-penalty-at-the-conclusion-of-his-trial)\n\n***\n\nOn December 4, 2024, [<u>Brian Thompson, then CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was shot and killed outside an entrance to the New York Hilton Midtown</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgpl2qn7l5o) in what New York’s police commissioner, Jessica Tisch, described as a “[<u>targeted attack</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/04/unitedhealthcare-ceo-shooting-what-we-know-so-far)”. Following a nationwide manhunt which lasted five days, [<u>Luigi Mangione — a University of Pennsylvania graduate whose last known address was in Honolulu, Hawaii — was detained at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania</u>](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/09/luigi-mangione-unitedhealthcare-ceo-shooting-altoona) on December 9, 2024.\n\n[<u>Luigi Mangione has since been indicted on 20 charges</u>](https://whyy.org/articles/luigi-mangione-state-federal-charges-pennsylvania-new-york/), facing 11 counts in New York state court, five in Pennsylvania state court, and four in federal court. [<u>The alleged offences include interstate stalking resulting in death, murder in furtherance of terrorism, and two counts of murder in the second degree.</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/luigi-mangione-brian-thompson-united-healthcare-murder-arraignment-2005310) While the death penalty is inapplicable in New York state — where it has been abolished since 2007 — it can still be imposed in federal court. Of particular note concerning this is the federal charge Mangione faces for using a firearm to commit murder, which the Department of Justice clarifies “[<u>carries a maximum penalty of death or life in prison.</u>](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/luigi-mangione-charged-stalking-and-murder-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-and-use)” [<u>If approved by the United States Attorney General Pam Bondi</u>](https://metro.co.uk/2024/12/19/luigi-mangione-quietly-leaves-court-plane-new-york-healthcare-killing-22216089/), federal prosecutors could seek the death penalty if Mangione is found guilty. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2030, any criminal court in the United States (federal or state) sentences Luigi Mangione to [death](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/death_penalty). If no court has sentenced Mangione to death before that date, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Appeals do not affect resolution of this question. This question resolves based on sentencing; there is no requirement that the death penalty be carried out.", "post_id": 35366, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757822325.801437, "end_time": 1760857086.885, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.105 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757822325.801437, "end_time": 1760857086.885, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.105 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.16724907006799394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7394682331392084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5262440798030631, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1582778382571375, 0.0, 1.647042763284803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Luigi Mangione face the death penalty at the conclusion of his trial?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Luigi-Mangione-face-the-death-penalty-at-the-conclusion-of-his-trial)\n\n***\n\nOn December 4, 2024, [<u>Brian Thompson, then CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was shot and killed outside an entrance to the New York Hilton Midtown</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgpl2qn7l5o) in what New York’s police commissioner, Jessica Tisch, described as a “[<u>targeted attack</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/04/unitedhealthcare-ceo-shooting-what-we-know-so-far)”. Following a nationwide manhunt which lasted five days, [<u>Luigi Mangione — a University of Pennsylvania graduate whose last known address was in Honolulu, Hawaii — was detained at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania</u>](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/09/luigi-mangione-unitedhealthcare-ceo-shooting-altoona) on December 9, 2024.\n\n[<u>Luigi Mangione has since been indicted on 20 charges</u>](https://whyy.org/articles/luigi-mangione-state-federal-charges-pennsylvania-new-york/), facing 11 counts in New York state court, five in Pennsylvania state court, and four in federal court. [<u>The alleged offences include interstate stalking resulting in death, murder in furtherance of terrorism, and two counts of murder in the second degree.</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/luigi-mangione-brian-thompson-united-healthcare-murder-arraignment-2005310) While the death penalty is inapplicable in New York state — where it has been abolished since 2007 — it can still be imposed in federal court. Of particular note concerning this is the federal charge Mangione faces for using a firearm to commit murder, which the Department of Justice clarifies “[<u>carries a maximum penalty of death or life in prison.</u>](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/luigi-mangione-charged-stalking-and-murder-unitedhealthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-and-use)” [<u>If approved by the United States Attorney General Pam Bondi</u>](https://metro.co.uk/2024/12/19/luigi-mangione-quietly-leaves-court-plane-new-york-healthcare-killing-22216089/), federal prosecutors could seek the death penalty if Mangione is found guilty. " }, { "id": 35365, "title": "Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "US Mexico invasion before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "US Mexico invasion before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "us-mexico-invasion-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T22:36:27.779263Z", "published_at": "2025-02-25T01:23:13.309303Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T00:14:24.736417Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-25T01:23:13.309301Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-01T01:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:27:01.471710Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:27:01.471710Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34832, "title": "Will the USA invade Mexico and acknowledge that invasion before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T22:36:27.779591Z", "open_time": "2025-03-01T01:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-05T01:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-05T01:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the USA invade Mexico?](https://verity.news/controversy/Will-the-USA-invade-Mexico)\n\n***\n\nThe possibility of a US invasion of Mexico has been a topic of debate among policymakers, security analysts, and political commentators. While an outright invasion remains unlikely, discussions around US military intervention in Mexico have intensified due to escalating cartel violence, drug trafficking concerns, and political rhetoric from key figures.\n\nThe US and Mexico share a complex history of military conflict and intervention. The [<u>Mexican-American War (1846–1848)</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican%E2%80%93American_War) resulted in the US annexing nearly half of Mexico’s territory. More recently, in 1916, the US launched the [<u>Pancho Villa Expedition</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Villa_Expedition) in response to cross-border attacks, but it did not lead to a prolonged occupation. Since then, military actions have been limited to counter-narcotics operations and intelligence-sharing.\n\nDespite this, the US and Mexico have a long-standing alliance, with the US State Department describing Mexico as \"[<u>one of the United States' closest and most valued partners</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/03/04/us-not-invading-mexico/72792322007/).\" However, tensions have emerged in recent years:\n\n* The International Crisis Group named a potential Mexico-US clash as one of its [<u>10 Global Conflicts to Watch in 2025</u>](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/international-crisis-group-us-mexico-among-10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2025/).\n* Issues such as [<u>immigration, tariffs, and drug trafficking</u>](https://news.rice.edu/news/2024/mexicos-relationship-us-and-incoming-trump-administration-examined-baker-institute) could strain relations between the two countries.\n\n<u>Drug Cartels and Security Concerns</u> \nOne of the primary justifications proposed for potential US military action is combating drug cartels:\n\n* Fentanyl trafficking has become a major concern, as it is now the leading cause of [<u>death for Americans aged 18-45</u>](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/international-crisis-group-us-mexico-among-10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2025/).\n* Some US politicians have suggested [<u>designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations</u>](https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1636030532332011520), which could potentially allow for US military intervention. President Trump signed an [<u>executive order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designating-cartels-and-other-organizations-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-and-specially-designated-global-terrorists/) to this effect as well.\n* Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, [<u>has supported legislation authorizing the use of force against cartels</u>](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/international-crisis-group-us-mexico-among-10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2025/).\n* The administration has also emphasized using [<u>Special Operations Forces and airstrikes to target cartel operations</u>](https://www.cato.org/blog/one-endless-war-another-trumps-new-military-frontier-mexico). However, such actions would likely face significant domestic and international opposition.\n\n## <u>Political Factors</u> \nThe political landscape in both countries plays a role in shaping this controversy:\n\n* The Trump administration has begun to take a harder stance on issues like [<u>immigration</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-immigration-executive-orders-inauguration/) and [<u>drug trafficking</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/).\n* Mexico's new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has assured that[<u> bilateral relations will remain strong,</u>](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sheinbaum-says-mexico-will-have-good-relationship-us-after-very-cordial-call-trump-trumps) but her policies may align closely with her predecessor's, potentially complicating US relations.\n\n## <u>Economic Interests</u> \nSome analysts suggest that economic motivations could be behind calls for intervention:\n\n* Mexico's [<u>resources and potential for exploitation</u>](https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/invade-mexico-amlo-cartels/) have been cited as factors that might influence US policy towards the country.\n\nDue to the above factors, the situation could evolve if cartel violence escalates significantly or if the current US administration prioritizes aggressive military responses to organized crime. However, smaller-scale operations such as targeted strikes or Special Forces missions cannot be entirely ruled out if tensions escalate further.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the US deploys troops into Mexico without the prior consent of the Mexican government, with these two requirements:\n\n1. Five or more US armored vehicles and at least 50 US troops must be within Mexico for at least 36 hours, according to credible sources.\n2. There must also be an acknowledgment from the US government that its troops and military equipment are in Mexico.\n\nThe question will not be resolved if US forces are deployed into Mexico at the request of the Mexican government.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35365, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757636054.380379, "end_time": 1758044795.026164, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757636054.380379, "end_time": 1758044795.026164, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.1614312073116217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3226377826833644, 1.6093133357584484, 0.3381911385413752, 0.0, 0.0, 1.359541645615828, 1.5063961028982171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6997062017903195, 2.5452507201404218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the USA invade Mexico?](https://verity.news/controversy/Will-the-USA-invade-Mexico)\n\n***\n\nThe possibility of a US invasion of Mexico has been a topic of debate among policymakers, security analysts, and political commentators. While an outright invasion remains unlikely, discussions around US military intervention in Mexico have intensified due to escalating cartel violence, drug trafficking concerns, and political rhetoric from key figures.\n\nThe US and Mexico share a complex history of military conflict and intervention. The [<u>Mexican-American War (1846–1848)</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican%E2%80%93American_War) resulted in the US annexing nearly half of Mexico’s territory. More recently, in 1916, the US launched the [<u>Pancho Villa Expedition</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pancho_Villa_Expedition) in response to cross-border attacks, but it did not lead to a prolonged occupation. Since then, military actions have been limited to counter-narcotics operations and intelligence-sharing.\n\nDespite this, the US and Mexico have a long-standing alliance, with the US State Department describing Mexico as \"[<u>one of the United States' closest and most valued partners</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/03/04/us-not-invading-mexico/72792322007/).\" However, tensions have emerged in recent years:\n\n* The International Crisis Group named a potential Mexico-US clash as one of its [<u>10 Global Conflicts to Watch in 2025</u>](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/international-crisis-group-us-mexico-among-10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2025/).\n* Issues such as [<u>immigration, tariffs, and drug trafficking</u>](https://news.rice.edu/news/2024/mexicos-relationship-us-and-incoming-trump-administration-examined-baker-institute) could strain relations between the two countries.\n\n<u>Drug Cartels and Security Concerns</u> \nOne of the primary justifications proposed for potential US military action is combating drug cartels:\n\n* Fentanyl trafficking has become a major concern, as it is now the leading cause of [<u>death for Americans aged 18-45</u>](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/international-crisis-group-us-mexico-among-10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2025/).\n* Some US politicians have suggested [<u>designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations</u>](https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1636030532332011520), which could potentially allow for US military intervention. President Trump signed an [<u>executive order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designating-cartels-and-other-organizations-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-and-specially-designated-global-terrorists/) to this effect as well.\n* Trump’s national security advisor, Mike Waltz, [<u>has supported legislation authorizing the use of force against cartels</u>](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/international-crisis-group-us-mexico-among-10-conflicts-to-watch-in-2025/).\n* The administration has also emphasized using [<u>Special Operations Forces and airstrikes to target cartel operations</u>](https://www.cato.org/blog/one-endless-war-another-trumps-new-military-frontier-mexico). However, such actions would likely face significant domestic and international opposition.\n\n## <u>Political Factors</u> \nThe political landscape in both countries plays a role in shaping this controversy:\n\n* The Trump administration has begun to take a harder stance on issues like [<u>immigration</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-immigration-executive-orders-inauguration/) and [<u>drug trafficking</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/).\n* Mexico's new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has assured that[<u> bilateral relations will remain strong,</u>](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sheinbaum-says-mexico-will-have-good-relationship-us-after-very-cordial-call-trump-trumps) but her policies may align closely with her predecessor's, potentially complicating US relations.\n\n## <u>Economic Interests</u> \nSome analysts suggest that economic motivations could be behind calls for intervention:\n\n* Mexico's [<u>resources and potential for exploitation</u>](https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/invade-mexico-amlo-cartels/) have been cited as factors that might influence US policy towards the country.\n\nDue to the above factors, the situation could evolve if cartel violence escalates significantly or if the current US administration prioritizes aggressive military responses to organized crime. However, smaller-scale operations such as targeted strikes or Special Forces missions cannot be entirely ruled out if tensions escalate further." }, { "id": 35364, "title": "Will the USPS be privatized before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "USPS privatized before Jan 20, 2029?", "url_title": "USPS privatized before Jan 20, 2029?", "slug": "usps-privatized-before-jan-20-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T22:19:51.195893Z", "published_at": "2025-02-22T03:38:33.272091Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.204610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-22T03:38:33.272089Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-24T03:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:27:01.471710Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:27:01.471710Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34831, "title": "Will the USPS be privatized before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T22:19:51.196221Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T03:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-28T03:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-28T03:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the USPS be privatized?*](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/Will-the-USPS-be-privatized)\n\n***\n\nThe debate over the potential privatization of the United States Postal Service (USPS) by the end of Trump’s term on January 20, 2029 encompasses a range of economic, political, and social considerations. In 2018, the Trump administration proposed restructuring the USPS with an eye toward privatization as part of a broader [<u>government reorganization plan</u>](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/management/2018/06/trump-administration-seeks-to-restructure-then-privatize-postal-service/). This proposal faced bipartisan opposition in [<u>Congress and was not implemented.</u>](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2024/12/trump-revisits-plan-to-privatize-usps-a-first-term-plan-that-didnt-go-far/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) In January 2025, a [<u>resolution was introduced in the House of Representatives opposing the privatization of the USPS</u>](https://www.nalc.org/news/nalc-updates/house-introduces-anti-privatization-resolution?utm_source=chatgpt.com), emphasizing the importance of maintaining the service as a public entity.\n\nAs of February 2025, the future of the USPS remains uncertain. While financial challenges persist, there is significant debate over the best path forward. The potential for privatization under Trump will likely depend on various factors, including legislative actions, public opinion, and the USPS's ability to implement reforms to achieve financial stability.\n\nIn 2024, USPS [<u>incurred a \\$9.5 billion loss, up from a \\$6.5 billion loss in 2023</u>](https://about.usps.com/newsroom/national-releases/2024/1114-usps-reports-fiscal-year-2024-results.htm). The [<u>deficits</u>](https://www.gao.gov/blog/u.s.-postal-service-faces-more-financial-losses-how-can-it-stem-tide) are attributed to declining mail volumes, increased competition from private carriers, and statutory obligations such as the mandate to pre-fund retiree health benefits. The financial instability has reignited debates over whether privatization is a viable solution to its problems.\n\nKey financial and operational issues:\n\n1. **Declining Mail Volume:** The USPS has experienced a sharp decline in traditional mail volumes due to [<u>digital communication alternatives</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/privatized-usps-amazon-delivery-8773765#citation-6). While it has expanded its package delivery services, competition from [<u>private companies like FedEx and UPS remains fierce</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/privatized-usps-amazon-delivery-8773765#citation-6).\n2. **Financial Losses**: In 2024, the USPS reported a \\$9.5 billion loss. These losses have been attributed to [<u>operational inefficiencies, rising costs, and its inability to adapt quickly to market changes due to regulatory constraints</u>](https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trump-mulls-privatizing-usps).\n3. **Universal Service Obligation (USO):** The USPS is [<u>mandated to provide affordable service to every address in the U.S</u>](https://canadianstampnews.com/usps-privatization-debate-resurfaces/)., including rural areas where delivery costs are higher. This obligation limits its ability to cut costs or adjust pricing to market realities.\n4. **Pension and Healthcare Costs**: The [<u>USPS is required to pre-fund retiree health benefits</u>](https://apwu.org/usps-fairness-act), a unique mandate that has significantly contributed to its financial woes.\n\nCongressional approval would be required for any significant restructuring of the USPS. Historically, bipartisan resistance has stalled similar efforts, even when Republicans controlled [<u>both chambers during Trump's first term.</u>](https://www.govexec.com/management/2024/12/usps-privatization-again-under-consideration-trump-says/401705/)\n\nRecently, [<u>President Trump has signaled renewed interest in pursuing USPS privatization</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/12/16/can-trump-privatize-the-postal-service-what-to-know-as-president-elect-says-hes-looking-at-usps-changes/) as part of broader efforts to cut federal spending. However, significant obstacles remain:\n\n* [<u>Bipartisan opposition in Congress</u>](https://m.npmhu.org/media/news/house-resolution-70).\n* [<u>Public backlash</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/12/14/trump-usps-privatize-plan/) over potential price increases or service reductions.\n\nResistance from [<u>postal unions</u>](https://apwu.org/fighting-privatization-0) and other stakeholders.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the US Postal Service (USPS) is privatized before January 20, 2029. \"Privatized\" is defined as the USPS having >50% economic ownership by non-governmental shareholders.", "fine_print": "In case of any spinoffs of divisions, restructurings or other such corporate reorganizations, whatever entity remains in control of last-mile postal delivery of first-class mail will be considered the USPS for purposes of this question. \n\nFor purposes of this question, sovereign wealth funds are not considered governmental shareholders.", "post_id": 35364, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756168564.88373, "end_time": 1759635993.540826, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756168564.88373, "end_time": 1759635993.540826, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16875167960379045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8469700741410309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the USPS be privatized?*](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/Will-the-USPS-be-privatized)\n\n***\n\nThe debate over the potential privatization of the United States Postal Service (USPS) by the end of Trump’s term on January 20, 2029 encompasses a range of economic, political, and social considerations. In 2018, the Trump administration proposed restructuring the USPS with an eye toward privatization as part of a broader [<u>government reorganization plan</u>](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/management/2018/06/trump-administration-seeks-to-restructure-then-privatize-postal-service/). This proposal faced bipartisan opposition in [<u>Congress and was not implemented.</u>](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2024/12/trump-revisits-plan-to-privatize-usps-a-first-term-plan-that-didnt-go-far/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) In January 2025, a [<u>resolution was introduced in the House of Representatives opposing the privatization of the USPS</u>](https://www.nalc.org/news/nalc-updates/house-introduces-anti-privatization-resolution?utm_source=chatgpt.com), emphasizing the importance of maintaining the service as a public entity.\n\nAs of February 2025, the future of the USPS remains uncertain. While financial challenges persist, there is significant debate over the best path forward. The potential for privatization under Trump will likely depend on various factors, including legislative actions, public opinion, and the USPS's ability to implement reforms to achieve financial stability.\n\nIn 2024, USPS [<u>incurred a \\$9.5 billion loss, up from a \\$6.5 billion loss in 2023</u>](https://about.usps.com/newsroom/national-releases/2024/1114-usps-reports-fiscal-year-2024-results.htm). The [<u>deficits</u>](https://www.gao.gov/blog/u.s.-postal-service-faces-more-financial-losses-how-can-it-stem-tide) are attributed to declining mail volumes, increased competition from private carriers, and statutory obligations such as the mandate to pre-fund retiree health benefits. The financial instability has reignited debates over whether privatization is a viable solution to its problems.\n\nKey financial and operational issues:\n\n1. **Declining Mail Volume:** The USPS has experienced a sharp decline in traditional mail volumes due to [<u>digital communication alternatives</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/privatized-usps-amazon-delivery-8773765#citation-6). While it has expanded its package delivery services, competition from [<u>private companies like FedEx and UPS remains fierce</u>](https://www.investopedia.com/privatized-usps-amazon-delivery-8773765#citation-6).\n2. **Financial Losses**: In 2024, the USPS reported a \\$9.5 billion loss. These losses have been attributed to [<u>operational inefficiencies, rising costs, and its inability to adapt quickly to market changes due to regulatory constraints</u>](https://www.ttnews.com/articles/trump-mulls-privatizing-usps).\n3. **Universal Service Obligation (USO):** The USPS is [<u>mandated to provide affordable service to every address in the U.S</u>](https://canadianstampnews.com/usps-privatization-debate-resurfaces/)., including rural areas where delivery costs are higher. This obligation limits its ability to cut costs or adjust pricing to market realities.\n4. **Pension and Healthcare Costs**: The [<u>USPS is required to pre-fund retiree health benefits</u>](https://apwu.org/usps-fairness-act), a unique mandate that has significantly contributed to its financial woes.\n\nCongressional approval would be required for any significant restructuring of the USPS. Historically, bipartisan resistance has stalled similar efforts, even when Republicans controlled [<u>both chambers during Trump's first term.</u>](https://www.govexec.com/management/2024/12/usps-privatization-again-under-consideration-trump-says/401705/)\n\nRecently, [<u>President Trump has signaled renewed interest in pursuing USPS privatization</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/12/16/can-trump-privatize-the-postal-service-what-to-know-as-president-elect-says-hes-looking-at-usps-changes/) as part of broader efforts to cut federal spending. However, significant obstacles remain:\n\n* [<u>Bipartisan opposition in Congress</u>](https://m.npmhu.org/media/news/house-resolution-70).\n* [<u>Public backlash</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/12/14/trump-usps-privatize-plan/) over potential price increases or service reductions.\n\nResistance from [<u>postal unions</u>](https://apwu.org/fighting-privatization-0) and other stakeholders." }, { "id": 35363, "title": "Will IS return to Syria before 2031?", "short_title": "IS resurgence before 2031?", "url_title": "IS resurgence before 2031?", "slug": "is-resurgence-before-2031", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T22:15:42.011929Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T05:42:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.611379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-23T05:44:15.897492Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-24T05:42:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:27:01.471710Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:27:01.471710Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34830, "title": "Will IS return to Syria before 2031?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T22:15:42.012560Z", "open_time": "2025-04-24T05:42:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-28T05:42:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-28T05:42:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will IS return to Syria?\n\n***\n\n[<u>Islamic State (IS)</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29052144) is a transnational jihadist group recognised internationally as a terrorist organization. Originally founded as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, the militant group rose to global prominence in 2014 after making significant territorial gains in Iraq and Syria, following which[ <u>it declared itself a caliphate in June 2014</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/30/isis-announces-islamic-caliphate-iraq-syria). The rapid rise of IS — which at its peak controlled nearly[ <u>110,000 square kilometers</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/global-coalition-to-defeat-isis-november-14-ministerial-meeting) and[ <u>held dominion over some 10 million people</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27838034) — led to the creation of several international coalitions to defeat IS, the largest being[ <u>The Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS</u>](https://www.state.gov/the-global-coalition-to-defeat-isis-partners/), which includes 87 member states.\n\nAs a result of these efforts,[ <u>IS lost 95 percent of its territory by December 2017</u>](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state), including its two largest possessions, Mosul and Raqqa. In March 2019,[ <u>US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces symbolically seized the last village in Syria under IS control</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/world/middleeast/isis-syria-caliphate.html), effectively putting to an end the group’s existence as a proto-nation-state. Despite these setbacks, IS continues to operate, shifting to become a formidable insurgency which — despite its losses — is[ <u>still active in Syria and Iraq as well as in West Africa, Congo, Mozambique, Sahel, and Somalia</u>](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10328).[ <u>The US 2024 Annual Threat Assessment</u>](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf) judged that “ISIS will remain a centralized global organization even as it has been forced to rely on regional branches in response to successive leadership losses during the past few years.”\n\nFollowing the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, Syria and its future stability have been called into question. With the country in an unexpected flux, there is concern that the current power vacuum could provide IS with the oxygen to thrive once more. Even before the fall of Ba'athist Syria, US Central Command — responsible for overseeing US operations in the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of South Asia —[ <u>stated in July 2024</u>](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1813332001010630840) that “ISIS is on pace to more than double the total number of attacks they claimed in 2023” after the group claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Syria and Iraq between January and June 2024.\n\nThese developments have led to differing opinions on whether IS will return as a significant player in Syria.[ <u>Steven A. Cook</u>](https://www.cfr.org/event/media-briefing-whats-next-syria-after-assad) — a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations — expressed his concern about “the return—the real return of ISIS.\"[ <u>Qutaiba Idlbi</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/12/11/syria-assad-us-good-bad-news/76891623007/), on the other hand, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs, confessed he did not see IS becoming “a major threat.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) confirm that the Islamic State (IS) has returned as a significant player in Syria.\n\nA \"significant player\" is defined by meeting **at least one** of the following conditions:\n\n1. **Territorial Control**: IS captures and holds territory in Syria for **at least four consecutive weeks**, with de facto control confirmed by credible sources. Maps or conflict trackers may be used as supplementary evidence but will not serve as sole confirmation.\n2. **Major Offensive Operations**: IS carries out **at least three large-scale attacks** within a six-month period. A large-scale attack is defined as an operation that **inflicts at least 50 combatant casualties** in a single event, as unambiguously confirmed by credible sources.\n3. **Governance or Administration**: IS publicly declares the reestablishment of governance structures (e.g., courts, tax systems, police forces) and enforces them in any Syrian territory, with confirmation from credible sources.\n4. **Significant Recruitment & Mobilization**: IS **recruits at least 500 new fighters** inside Syria within a six-month period, as confirmed by credible sources.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if none of the above conditions are met before January 1, 2031.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747543505.698906, "end_time": 1763668361.786719, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747543505.698906, "end_time": 1763668361.786719, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5178366040604332 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.23140059053797998, 0.0, 0.9918292417709249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22886390336957266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745353722241187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 2.663196388315563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2936839730388172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.10223706135307076, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9042489021906213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will IS return to Syria?\n\n***\n\n[<u>Islamic State (IS)</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29052144) is a transnational jihadist group recognised internationally as a terrorist organization. Originally founded as Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in 1999, the militant group rose to global prominence in 2014 after making significant territorial gains in Iraq and Syria, following which[ <u>it declared itself a caliphate in June 2014</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/30/isis-announces-islamic-caliphate-iraq-syria). The rapid rise of IS — which at its peak controlled nearly[ <u>110,000 square kilometers</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/global-coalition-to-defeat-isis-november-14-ministerial-meeting) and[ <u>held dominion over some 10 million people</u>](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27838034) — led to the creation of several international coalitions to defeat IS, the largest being[ <u>The Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS</u>](https://www.state.gov/the-global-coalition-to-defeat-isis-partners/), which includes 87 member states.\n\nAs a result of these efforts,[ <u>IS lost 95 percent of its territory by December 2017</u>](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/timeline-the-rise-spread-and-fall-the-islamic-state), including its two largest possessions, Mosul and Raqqa. In March 2019,[ <u>US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces symbolically seized the last village in Syria under IS control</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/23/world/middleeast/isis-syria-caliphate.html), effectively putting to an end the group’s existence as a proto-nation-state. Despite these setbacks, IS continues to operate, shifting to become a formidable insurgency which — despite its losses — is[ <u>still active in Syria and Iraq as well as in West Africa, Congo, Mozambique, Sahel, and Somalia</u>](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10328).[ <u>The US 2024 Annual Threat Assessment</u>](https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf) judged that “ISIS will remain a centralized global organization even as it has been forced to rely on regional branches in response to successive leadership losses during the past few years.”\n\nFollowing the sudden collapse of the Assad regime in December 2024, Syria and its future stability have been called into question. With the country in an unexpected flux, there is concern that the current power vacuum could provide IS with the oxygen to thrive once more. Even before the fall of Ba'athist Syria, US Central Command — responsible for overseeing US operations in the Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of South Asia —[ <u>stated in July 2024</u>](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1813332001010630840) that “ISIS is on pace to more than double the total number of attacks they claimed in 2023” after the group claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in Syria and Iraq between January and June 2024.\n\nThese developments have led to differing opinions on whether IS will return as a significant player in Syria.[ <u>Steven A. Cook</u>](https://www.cfr.org/event/media-briefing-whats-next-syria-after-assad) — a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations — expressed his concern about “the return—the real return of ISIS.\"[ <u>Qutaiba Idlbi</u>](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/12/11/syria-assad-us-good-bad-news/76891623007/), on the other hand, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs, confessed he did not see IS becoming “a major threat.”" }, { "id": 35361, "title": "Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?", "short_title": "Cryptocurrencies >1% of US retail payments by 2035?", "url_title": "Cryptocurrencies >1% of US retail payments by 2035?", "slug": "cryptocurrencies-1-of-us-retail-payments-by-2035", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T20:05:53.867664Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T20:20:28.863512Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.868668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T20:20:28.863510Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T20:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34828, "title": "Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T20:05:53.868122Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T20:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T20:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T20:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Christine Peterson*](https://foresight.org/our-team/christine-peterson-co-founder-past-president/) *provided this question for their talk* The Path to Keeping the Future on Track *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nThe Federal Reserve's [Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice](https://www.atlantafed.org/banking-and-payments/consumer-payments/survey-and-diary-of-consumer-payment-choice) (SDCPC) tracks payment methods including cash, credit cards, debit cards, and electronic payments. As of its 2023 report, the SDCPC only tracks the share of respondents who own cryptocurrency assets. Cryptocurrency payments represent a very small fraction of U.S. retail transactions, with most crypto activity focused on investment rather than payments.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, cryptocurrency payments constitute 1% or more of U.S. retail payment transactions by number of transactions, as reported by the Federal Reserve's [Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice](https://www.atlantafed.org/banking-and-payments/consumer-payments/survey-and-diary-of-consumer-payment-choice) (SDCPC) or similar credible sources published before the date in question.\n\n\"Cryptocurrency payments\" include:\n\n* Direct payments in any cryptocurrency\n* Payments using crypto-backed payment cards\n* Merchant point-of-sale crypto transactions\n* Digital wallet payments settled in cryptocurrency", "fine_print": "The 1% threshold applies to transaction count (number of payments), not dollar value. Retail payments exclude business-to-business transactions, wholesale payments, and purely speculative trading. Community admins may evaluate multiple data sources if needed to establish whether the threshold has been met.", "post_id": 35361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756439440.093442, "end_time": 1771343607.874226, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.897 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756439440.093442, "end_time": 1771343607.874226, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.897 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10299999999999998, 0.897 ], "means": [ 0.8871724390100443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6882335654016546, 0.0, 0.29329946418602637, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.7012484388799607, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 1.4266655167068045 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Christine Peterson*](https://foresight.org/our-team/christine-peterson-co-founder-past-president/) *provided this question for their talk* The Path to Keeping the Future on Track *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nThe Federal Reserve's [Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice](https://www.atlantafed.org/banking-and-payments/consumer-payments/survey-and-diary-of-consumer-payment-choice) (SDCPC) tracks payment methods including cash, credit cards, debit cards, and electronic payments. As of its 2023 report, the SDCPC only tracks the share of respondents who own cryptocurrency assets. Cryptocurrency payments represent a very small fraction of U.S. retail transactions, with most crypto activity focused on investment rather than payments." }, { "id": 35359, "title": "Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?", "short_title": "Diagnostic for Aging Trajectories Approved by 2030?", "url_title": "Diagnostic for Aging Trajectories Approved by 2030?", "slug": "diagnostic-for-aging-trajectories-approved-by-2030", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T17:18:47.641119Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:22:42.330468Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.452603Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:22:42.330466Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34826, "title": "Before January 1, 2032, will an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrate a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T17:18:47.641526Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*David Furman*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/furmanbios/) *provided this question for their talk* Longevity Diagnostics and Therapeutics: A roadmap from the bench to the marketplace *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe topic of [life extension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_extension) has been the subject of much research aimed at improving the health and well-being of people so that they may live longer and higher quality lives. Many areas within this research are aimed at understanding and reversing the [biomarkers of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomarkers_of_aging) to unlock ways to reverse [biological aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senescence).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, an FDA-approved therapeutic intervention demonstrates a statistically significant reversal of at least 10 years in biological age in humans, as measured by a validated multi-omic biomarker panel.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the sole judgment of David Furman.", "post_id": 35359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747596486.758918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747596486.758918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21209027177360812 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.17522973636453743, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8916747079458253, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0549745380698368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*David Furman*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/furmanbios/) *provided this question for their talk* Longevity Diagnostics and Therapeutics: A roadmap from the bench to the marketplace *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe topic of [life extension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_extension) has been the subject of much research aimed at improving the health and well-being of people so that they may live longer and higher quality lives. Many areas within this research are aimed at understanding and reversing the [biomarkers of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomarkers_of_aging) to unlock ways to reverse [biological aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senescence)." }, { "id": 35358, "title": "Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "FDA-approved longevity diagnostic text by 2030?", "url_title": "FDA-approved longevity diagnostic text by 2030?", "slug": "fda-approved-longevity-diagnostic-text-by-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T17:17:07.065001Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:22:27.453772Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.225021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:22:27.453769Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34825, "title": "Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T17:17:07.065411Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*David Furman*](https://www.buckinstitute.org/lab/furman-lab/) *provided this question for their talk* Longevity Diagnostics and Therapeutics: A roadmap from the bench to the marketplace *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nVarious companies are developing diagnostic tests that aim to predict individual responses to aging interventions. These range from genetic panels to broader biomarker analyses. As of 2024, while some aging-related tests are commercially available, none have FDA approval for predicting intervention responses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if by January 1, 2030, a diagnostic test meets all of these criteria:\n\n1. Receives FDA approval for predicting individual responses to longevity/aging interventions\n2. Is commercially available in the United States\n3. Has coverage approval from at least three major U.S. health insurance companies\n\nThe test must be specifically approved for predicting how individuals will respond to interventions intended to modify the aging process or extend healthspan. This prediction capability must be explicitly mentioned in the FDA approval documentation.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially available\" means the test can be ordered by healthcare providers in the U.S. Insurance coverage must include actual reimbursement policies, not just case-by-case approvals. The test must be approved for predicting responses to interventions, not just for measuring current biological age or health status. Community admins may decide in the event of ambiguity, and will evaluate whether partial approvals or limited coverage policies qualify for positive resolution.", "post_id": 35358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756341421.798081, "end_time": 1767509917.337, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756341421.798081, "end_time": 1767509917.337, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.31564115039325236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*David Furman*](https://www.buckinstitute.org/lab/furman-lab/) *provided this question for their talk* Longevity Diagnostics and Therapeutics: A roadmap from the bench to the marketplace *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nVarious companies are developing diagnostic tests that aim to predict individual responses to aging interventions. These range from genetic panels to broader biomarker analyses. As of 2024, while some aging-related tests are commercially available, none have FDA approval for predicting intervention responses." }, { "id": 35357, "title": "Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?", "short_title": "White House Multi-Billion Initiative for AGI Before 2026?", "url_title": "White House Multi-Billion Initiative for AGI Before 2026?", "slug": "white-house-multi-billion-initiative-for-agi-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T17:00:51.609918Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:01:01.403327Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:43:01.184745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:01:01.403325Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34824, "title": "Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T17:00:51.610283Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Nyah Stewart*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/nyahstewart/) *provided this question for their talk* Invested in Hope: The American Funding Tradition *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nEarly in his second term, US President Donald Trump [highlighted](https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-openai-oracle-softbank-son-altman-ellison-be261f8a8ee07a0623d4170397348c41) a \\$500 billion joint venture committed by private industry to invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) has often been [framed as a race](https://www.axios.com/pro/tech-policy/2025/02/04/us-china-commission-pushes-race-to-agi), especially between the US and China, to achieve the technology, as the first country to develop such technology may hold a great geopolitical advantage. While observers have raised [concerns about the risks of AGI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence), others hold that AGI could produce great [benefits to well-being](https://www.goodai.com/9-ways-agi-could-shape-the-world-for-the-better/) for the country that achieves it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the White House announces that it will commit at least \\$2 billion in funding for the purpose of accelerating artificial intelligence research or industry. The initiative can include funding from private industry as well, so long as the total funding announced as committed by the US government is at least \\$2 billion.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756779693.487, "end_time": 1759239565.544, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756779693.487, "end_time": 1759239565.544, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7017567187523349 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0425053667019508, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Nyah Stewart*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/nyahstewart/) *provided this question for their talk* Invested in Hope: The American Funding Tradition *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nEarly in his second term, US President Donald Trump [highlighted](https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-openai-oracle-softbank-son-altman-ellison-be261f8a8ee07a0623d4170397348c41) a \\$500 billion joint venture committed by private industry to invest in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) has often been [framed as a race](https://www.axios.com/pro/tech-policy/2025/02/04/us-china-commission-pushes-race-to-agi), especially between the US and China, to achieve the technology, as the first country to develop such technology may hold a great geopolitical advantage. While observers have raised [concerns about the risks of AGI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence), others hold that AGI could produce great [benefits to well-being](https://www.goodai.com/9-ways-agi-could-shape-the-world-for-the-better/) for the country that achieves it." }, { "id": 35354, "title": "Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?", "short_title": "Approval for Reprogramming-Based Therapy Before 2035?", "url_title": "Approval for Reprogramming-Based Therapy Before 2035?", "slug": "approval-for-reprogramming-based-therapy-before-2035", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-21T16:14:52.732764Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T16:28:55.632075Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.755460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T16:28:55.632073Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34822, "title": "Will a partial reprogramming-based therapy receive regulatory approval for treating Alzheimer’s disease before January 1, 2035?", "created_at": "2025-02-21T16:14:52.733165Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Yuri Deigin*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/yurideigin/) *provided this question for their talk* Brain Rejuvenation via Partial Cellular Reprogramming *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Alzheimer's disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alzheimer%27s_disease) is a debilitating disease that causes brain degeneration, causing damaging symptoms such as memory loss, and eventually leading to death. Currently there is no effective treatment for Alzheimer's disease. One possible treatment being explored is called \"partial reprogramming\". In a [recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full) conducted by [YouthBio Therapeutics](https://youthbiotx.com/), the research describe the partial reprogramming approach as follows:\n\n> Age-associated neurodegenerative disorders represent significant challenges due to progressive neuronal decline and limited treatments. In aged mice, partial reprogramming, characterized by pulsed expression of reprogramming factors, has shown promise in improving function in various tissues, but its impact on the aging brain remains poorly understood. Here we investigated the impact of *in vivo* partial reprogramming on mature neurons in the dentate gyrus of young and aged mice. Using two different approaches – a neuron-specific transgenic reprogrammable mouse model and neuron-specific targeted lentiviral delivery of OSKM reprogramming factors – we demonstrated that *in vivo* partial reprogramming of mature neurons in the dentate gyrus, a neurogenic niche in the adult mouse brain, can influence animal behavior, and ameliorate age-related decline in memory and learning. These findings underscore the potential of *in vivo* partial reprogramming as an important therapeutic intervention to rejuvenate the neurogenic niche and ameliorate cognitive decline associated with aging or neurodegeneration.. . .To address these safety issues, researchers have explored strategies to control the expression of reprogramming factors, either through cyclic short-term expression or cell- and tissue-specific expression ([Browder et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-3); [Chen et al., 2021](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-5); [Ocampo et al., 2016](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-14); [Parras et al., 2023](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-16); [Picó et al., 2024](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-17)) Importantly, partial or tissue-specific reprogramming can effectively rejuvenate and reverse some age-associated phenotypes in various tissues and organs *in vivo*, including kidney ([Browder et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-3)) liver ([Chondronasiou et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-6); [Hishida et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-9)) skin ([Browder et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-3); [Doeser et al., 2018](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-8)) heart ([Chen et al., 2021](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-5)) pancreas and muscle ([Chondronasiou et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-6); [de Lazaro et al., 2019](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-7); [Ocampo et al., 2016](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-14); [Sarkar et al., 2020](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-19); [Wang et al., 2021](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-24)) axon regeneration in the retina ([Lu et al., 2020](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-11)) and even the brain ([Rodriguez-Matellan et al., 2020](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-18); [Xu et al., 2024](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-25))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, a partial reprogramming based treatment for Alzheimer's has been approved for sale by the government of a G7 country or by the European Union. The approval must be for widespread use, approval in life-threatening situations for a select few individuals, such as [expanded access (compassionate use)](https://irb.ucsf.edu/emergency-use-and-compassionate-use-experimental-drugs-and-devices) and limited emergency approval, are not sufficient.	", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a G7 country will be considered any country or group of countries part of the G7 in February 2025: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. This question also specifically includes approval by the European Union (often considered a non-enumerated member of the G7).", "post_id": 35354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752180116.60191, "end_time": 1771340228.03802, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752180116.60191, "end_time": 1771340228.03802, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4083271702566799 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3678794411714423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2783559331905674, 0.0, 1.0471255579461471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Yuri Deigin*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/yurideigin/) *provided this question for their talk* Brain Rejuvenation via Partial Cellular Reprogramming *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Alzheimer's disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alzheimer%27s_disease) is a debilitating disease that causes brain degeneration, causing damaging symptoms such as memory loss, and eventually leading to death. Currently there is no effective treatment for Alzheimer's disease. One possible treatment being explored is called \"partial reprogramming\". In a [recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full) conducted by [YouthBio Therapeutics](https://youthbiotx.com/), the research describe the partial reprogramming approach as follows:\n\n> Age-associated neurodegenerative disorders represent significant challenges due to progressive neuronal decline and limited treatments. In aged mice, partial reprogramming, characterized by pulsed expression of reprogramming factors, has shown promise in improving function in various tissues, but its impact on the aging brain remains poorly understood. Here we investigated the impact of *in vivo* partial reprogramming on mature neurons in the dentate gyrus of young and aged mice. Using two different approaches – a neuron-specific transgenic reprogrammable mouse model and neuron-specific targeted lentiviral delivery of OSKM reprogramming factors – we demonstrated that *in vivo* partial reprogramming of mature neurons in the dentate gyrus, a neurogenic niche in the adult mouse brain, can influence animal behavior, and ameliorate age-related decline in memory and learning. These findings underscore the potential of *in vivo* partial reprogramming as an important therapeutic intervention to rejuvenate the neurogenic niche and ameliorate cognitive decline associated with aging or neurodegeneration.. . .To address these safety issues, researchers have explored strategies to control the expression of reprogramming factors, either through cyclic short-term expression or cell- and tissue-specific expression ([Browder et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-3); [Chen et al., 2021](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-5); [Ocampo et al., 2016](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-14); [Parras et al., 2023](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-16); [Picó et al., 2024](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-17)) Importantly, partial or tissue-specific reprogramming can effectively rejuvenate and reverse some age-associated phenotypes in various tissues and organs *in vivo*, including kidney ([Browder et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-3)) liver ([Chondronasiou et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-6); [Hishida et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-9)) skin ([Browder et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-3); [Doeser et al., 2018](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-8)) heart ([Chen et al., 2021](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-5)) pancreas and muscle ([Chondronasiou et al., 2022](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-6); [de Lazaro et al., 2019](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-7); [Ocampo et al., 2016](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-14); [Sarkar et al., 2020](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-19); [Wang et al., 2021](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-24)) axon regeneration in the retina ([Lu et al., 2020](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-11)) and even the brain ([Rodriguez-Matellan et al., 2020](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-18); [Xu et al., 2024](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.07.24.604939v1.full#ref-25))" } ] }
\n\n\\[Translation:\n\nLiberal](http://it.%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5C%5C[Translation:%5Cn%5CnLiberal){kind=link}
