Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1020
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1040", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1000", "results": [ { "id": 35348, "title": "Will Flightradar list another Major Incident before March 20, 2025?", "short_title": "Plane Crashes", "url_title": "Plane Crashes", "slug": "plane-crashes", "author_id": 212343, "author_username": "jello", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-20T23:14:20.278604Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T23:14:47.442345Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.306594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-20T23:14:47.442343Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-21T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-04T04:41:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T23:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 20, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 20, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34818, "title": "Will Flightradar list another Major Incident before March 20, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-20T23:14:20.278975Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T23:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-22T23:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-22T23:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-21T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-04T04:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-04T04:42:07.103041Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/category/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/](https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/category/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/)", "resolution_criteria": "[https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/category/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/](https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/category/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740095055.041442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.463 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740095055.041442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.463 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5809409353557696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.313188178533074, "peer_score": 145.45763576029978, "coverage": 0.9998974296295065, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998974296295065, "spot_peer_score": 145.5256740018181, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -6.313188178533074, "peer_archived_score": 145.45763576029978, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 145.5256740018181, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/category/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/](https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/category/flight-tracking-news/major-incident/)" }, { "id": 35345, "title": "Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?", "short_title": "AI shopping agent service achieve commercial deployment?", "url_title": "AI shopping agent service achieve commercial deployment?", "slug": "ai-shopping-agent-service-achieve-commercial-deployment", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-20T22:57:37.589479Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T03:58:28.535672Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.729772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T03:58:28.535670Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T04:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34815, "title": "Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-02-20T22:57:37.589831Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T04:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T04:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T04:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Hannah Rosenberg*](https://pr.linkedin.com/in/hannahmr) *provided this question for their talk* Bitcoin + AI *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nSeveral major technology companies and startups are developing AI agents capable of autonomously making purchases on behalf of users. These range from simple price comparison tools to more sophisticated agents that can understand preferences, negotiate deals, and complete transactions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if by December 31, 2026, there is clear public evidence that an AI agent system has achieved any of the following:\n\n* Public announcement by a major technology company (market cap >\\$10B at the time of the announcement) of an AI shopping service that has completed at least 100,000 transactions.\n* SEC filings or earnings reports showing revenue or transaction volume specifically attributed to autonomous AI shopping agents\n* Verified media coverage documenting deployment of AI shopping agents serving at least 10,000 monthly active users\n* Patent filings or technical documentation showing actual deployment data for autonomous purchasing systems.\n\nThe AI agent must autonomously perform at least three of these functions:\n\n* Search and compare prices across multiple vendors\n* Make product recommendations based on user preferences\n* Complete purchases using authorized payment methods\n* Track orders and delivery status\n* Handle basic customer service interactions", "fine_print": "Resolution sources must include concrete evidence of actual commercial deployment and usage, not just capability demonstrations or beta testing. Since companies may not report exact transaction numbers, evidence of scale can include:\n\n* Revenue data specifically attributed to AI shopping services\n* Number of monthly active users\n* Volume of merchant integrations or API calls\n* Payment processing volume for autonomous transactions\n\nIf multiple qualifying milestones occur, the question resolves to the earliest verified instance. Community admins may use reasonable discretion in evaluating partial or indirect evidence if it clearly demonstrates widespread commercial deployment of autonomous shopping agents.", "post_id": 35345, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752723961.763144, "end_time": 1760159687.491, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752723961.763144, "end_time": 1760159687.491, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9721855690551736 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2086429191039083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Hannah Rosenberg*](https://pr.linkedin.com/in/hannahmr) *provided this question for their talk* Bitcoin + AI *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nSeveral major technology companies and startups are developing AI agents capable of autonomously making purchases on behalf of users. These range from simple price comparison tools to more sophisticated agents that can understand preferences, negotiate deals, and complete transactions." }, { "id": 35321, "title": "Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?", "short_title": "Puerto Rico industrial sector powered by New Nuclear?", "url_title": "Puerto Rico industrial sector powered by New Nuclear?", "slug": "puerto-rico-industrial-sector-powered-by-new-nuclear", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-20T21:38:08.251075Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T03:53:35.713572Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.274185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T03:53:35.713570Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34791, "title": "Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?", "created_at": "2025-02-20T21:38:08.251548Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Jesus Nuñez*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesus-nunez-ab730a44) *provided this question for their talk* New Nuclear Energy as the Basis for a Strong and Modern Puerto Rico *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nPuerto Rico's industrial sector faces unique energy challenges as an island territory. As of 2024, the territory relies heavily on imported fossil fuels for industrial power generation. Various proposals have suggested nuclear power, particularly newer designs like SMRs, as a potential solution for industrial energy needs.\n\nIndustrial sector power consumption refers to electricity used by manufacturing, mining, construction, and other industrial activities as defined by standard DOE/EIA categorizations. Metaculus admins may use reasonable discretion in evaluating data from different authoritative sources if methodologies for measuring industrial power consumption differ.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if by December 31, 2040, more than 50% of Puerto Rico's industrial sector energy consumption comes from nuclear power plants. As Puerto Rico has no existing nuclear power plants as of 2024, any nuclear generation would qualify as \"New Nuclear.\"\n\nResolution will be based on data from any of the following sources:\n\n* [National Renewable Energy Laboratory](https://www.nrel.gov/) (NREL) reports\n* [Department of Energy](https://www.energy.gov/) (DOE) statistics\n* [Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/) (EIA) data\n* Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority reports\n* Official Puerto Rico government energy statistics", "fine_print": "If sector-specific consumption data is not available, resolution may be based on either:\n\n* Known industrial sector share of total electricity consumption (using latest available sectoral breakdown) applied to generation data\n* Direct evidence of nuclear power purchase agreements with major industrial consumers\n* Documented physical grid connections between nuclear plants and industrial zones/facilities showing primary supply relationship\n\nIndustrial sector power consumption refers to electricity used by manufacturing, mining, construction, and other industrial activities as defined by standard DOE/EIA categorizations. Metaculus admins may use reasonable discretion in choosing between available resolution methods if multiple conflicting data sources exist.", "post_id": 35321, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756258155.355897, "end_time": 1787136712.724994, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756258155.355897, "end_time": 1787136712.724994, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.436357344456464 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8238877588358507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Jesus Nuñez*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesus-nunez-ab730a44) *provided this question for their talk* New Nuclear Energy as the Basis for a Strong and Modern Puerto Rico *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nPuerto Rico's industrial sector faces unique energy challenges as an island territory. As of 2024, the territory relies heavily on imported fossil fuels for industrial power generation. Various proposals have suggested nuclear power, particularly newer designs like SMRs, as a potential solution for industrial energy needs.\n\nIndustrial sector power consumption refers to electricity used by manufacturing, mining, construction, and other industrial activities as defined by standard DOE/EIA categorizations. Metaculus admins may use reasonable discretion in evaluating data from different authoritative sources if methodologies for measuring industrial power consumption differ." }, { "id": 35320, "title": "Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?", "short_title": "Meta settle compulsive use by minors suit by 2026?", "url_title": "Meta settle compulsive use by minors suit by 2026?", "slug": "meta-settle-compulsive-use-by-minors-suit-by-2026", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-20T21:25:40.529639Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T23:00:44.754996Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:13:45.468575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-20T23:00:44.754993Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34790, "title": "Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?", "created_at": "2025-02-20T21:25:40.530042Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Frances Haugen*](https://www.franceshaugen.com/) *provided this question for their talk \"Shaping the Economics of Social Media\" at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nIn October 2023, a coalition of state attorneys general [filed lawsuits](https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-files-lawsuit-against-meta-over-harms-youth-mental-health) against Meta (formerly Facebook), alleging that the company deliberately designed Instagram and Facebook features to promote compulsive use by young users, while being aware of potential harms to youth mental health.\n\n[According to the American Bar Association](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/resources/law_related_education_network/how_courts_work/cases_settling/):\n\n> Relatively few lawsuits ever go through the full range of procedures and all the way to trial. Most civil cases are settled by mutual agreement between the parties. A dispute can be settled even before a suit is filed. Once a suit is filed, it can be settled before the trial begins, during the trial, while the jury is deliberating, or even after a verdict is rendered.A settlement doesn’t usually state that anyone was right or wrong in the case, nor does it have to settle the whole case. Part of a dispute can be settled, with the remaining issues left to be resolved by the judge or jury.\n\nFor more information and background on settlements see: [A Comprehensive Theory of Civil Settlement](https://law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Paper%20March%2022%20-%20Prescott%20and%20Spier.pdf)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2026, Meta reaches a settlement in the [*People of the State of California v. Meta Platforms, Inc*](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/67908468/the-people-of-the-state-of-california-v-meta-platforms-inc/), brought by a coalition of state attorneys general over allegations that Meta's platforms were designed to foster compulsive use by minors. The settlement must be formally announced and agreed to by both Meta and a substantial majority of the participating states to qualify.\n\nTo qualify as a settlement, the agreement must include formal resolution of the core allegations about platform design and youth addiction, with either monetary compensation, commitments to specific platform changes, or both. [Partial settlements](https://law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Paper%20March%2022%20-%20Prescott%20and%20Spier.pdf), for example award-modification agreements, issue-modification agreements, or procedure-modification agreements will generally not count, the core issue must be resolved.", "fine_print": "The settlement must represent a comprehensive resolution with the main coalition of states. Individual settlements with small numbers of states will **not** result in the question resolving as **Yes** unless they are part of a broader agreement with the coalition. Preliminary or \"in principle\" agreements must be followed by formal settlement documents before the deadline to count for positive resolution.\n\nThe question immediately resolves as **Yes** once these criteria are met, it will be immaterial if the settlement is later voided or the case further litigated.", "post_id": 35320, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470414.491063, "end_time": 1759436045.236, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470414.491063, "end_time": 1759436045.236, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6659999999999999, 0.334 ], "means": [ 0.3869655966069414 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8726435988271029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Frances Haugen*](https://www.franceshaugen.com/) *provided this question for their talk \"Shaping the Economics of Social Media\" at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nIn October 2023, a coalition of state attorneys general [filed lawsuits](https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-files-lawsuit-against-meta-over-harms-youth-mental-health) against Meta (formerly Facebook), alleging that the company deliberately designed Instagram and Facebook features to promote compulsive use by young users, while being aware of potential harms to youth mental health.\n\n[According to the American Bar Association](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/resources/law_related_education_network/how_courts_work/cases_settling/):\n\n> Relatively few lawsuits ever go through the full range of procedures and all the way to trial. Most civil cases are settled by mutual agreement between the parties. A dispute can be settled even before a suit is filed. Once a suit is filed, it can be settled before the trial begins, during the trial, while the jury is deliberating, or even after a verdict is rendered.A settlement doesn’t usually state that anyone was right or wrong in the case, nor does it have to settle the whole case. Part of a dispute can be settled, with the remaining issues left to be resolved by the judge or jury.\n\nFor more information and background on settlements see: [A Comprehensive Theory of Civil Settlement](https://law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Paper%20March%2022%20-%20Prescott%20and%20Spier.pdf)" }, { "id": 35300, "title": "Will equipment to make fuel from CO2 and water be deployed on Mars and make at least 1 ton per week of rocket fuel (methane) before 2030?", "short_title": "Make fuel from CO2 and water on Mars by 2030?", "url_title": "Make fuel from CO2 and water on Mars by 2030?", "slug": "make-fuel-from-co2-and-water-on-mars-by-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-19T23:08:48.446551Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T20:04:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.412290Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-20T20:04:31Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34771, "title": "Will equipment to make fuel from CO2 and water be deployed on Mars and make at least 1 ton per week of rocket fuel (methane) before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-02-19T23:08:48.446956Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Etosha Cave*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/etoshac/) *provided this question for their talk* Transforming CO2 into jet fuel to create a future of sustainable flight *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nThe ability to [produce rocket fuel on Mars](https://www.space.com/future-astronauts-methane-rocket-fuel-mars) is considered crucial for future Mars missions, particularly for return journeys to Earth. The process involves capturing CO2 from the Martian atmosphere and combining it with hydrogen (typically derived from water) through the [Sabatier reaction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction) to produce water and oxygen. SpaceX's Starship architecture, NASA's Mars mission plans, and various other proposed Mars missions incorporate [in-situ resource utilization](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/in-situ-resource-utilization-isru/) (ISRU) including fuel production.\n\nThe primary challenges include deploying reliable equipment that can operate in Mars' harsh environment, ensuring adequate power supply (likely solar or nuclear), extracting and purifying water ice, and maintaining the proper conditions for the chemical reactions involved in fuel synthesis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that equipment on the Martian surface has successfully demonstrated the production of methane rocket fuel using CO2 and water (or hydrogen) at a rate of at least 1 metric ton of methane per week, sustained for at least two consecutive weeks.", "fine_print": "The production process must produce methane (CH4) suitable for use as rocket fuel. The water or hydrogen used in the process may come from any source, while the CO2 must primarily be naturally occurring on Mars.\n\nThe fuel production equipment must be physically present on Mars' surface or near-surface (not in orbit).\n\nFor measurement purposes, production will be calculated based on the mass of methane fuel produced, not including the mass of any oxygen or other propellant components also generated in the process.", "post_id": 35300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756321778.863928, "end_time": 1758442171.074783, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756321778.863928, "end_time": 1758442171.074783, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.019357603082625345 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.843512346321467, 1.0915330821907048, 2.4918781722452414, 0.37976074371459123, 0.5959763164813908, 0.25417818159350136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Etosha Cave*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/etoshac/) *provided this question for their talk* Transforming CO2 into jet fuel to create a future of sustainable flight *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nThe ability to [produce rocket fuel on Mars](https://www.space.com/future-astronauts-methane-rocket-fuel-mars) is considered crucial for future Mars missions, particularly for return journeys to Earth. The process involves capturing CO2 from the Martian atmosphere and combining it with hydrogen (typically derived from water) through the [Sabatier reaction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction) to produce water and oxygen. SpaceX's Starship architecture, NASA's Mars mission plans, and various other proposed Mars missions incorporate [in-situ resource utilization](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/in-situ-resource-utilization-isru/) (ISRU) including fuel production.\n\nThe primary challenges include deploying reliable equipment that can operate in Mars' harsh environment, ensuring adequate power supply (likely solar or nuclear), extracting and purifying water ice, and maintaining the proper conditions for the chemical reactions involved in fuel synthesis." }, { "id": 35296, "title": "Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028?", "short_title": "Zelensky re-elected before 2028", "url_title": "Zelensky re-elected before 2028", "slug": "zelensky-re-elected-before-2028", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-19T17:43:37.571742Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:04:55.364598Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T23:35:17.730980Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:04:55.364596Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-22T17:03:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3466, "name": "Nathan Young's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "nathanpmyoung", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_3.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/MEwY9pAH_400x400.jpg", "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34765, "title": "Will Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-02-19T17:43:37.572100Z", "open_time": "2025-02-22T17:03:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T17:03:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of February 2025, Ukraine remains under martial law due to the ongoing conflict with Russia, which legally prohibits the holding of national elections. President Zelenskyy's original term was set to conclude in May 2024; however, the state of martial law has extended his tenure indefinitely. Discussions have emerged regarding the feasibility of conducting elections amid the conflict, with potential dates in 2025 being considered, contingent upon the cessation of hostilities and the lifting of martial law. Recent polls present a mixed picture - some polls show a decline in President Zelenskyy's popularity, [a recent poll finding only 16% of Ukrainians supporting his re-election](https://www.intellinews.com/zaluzhnyi-leads-ukrainian-presidential-poll-355220/), but [a recent approval rating at 54%](https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/19/reality-check-zelenskyys-approval-is-54-not-4-as-trump-claims-and-it-still-beats-trumps/).\n\nTrump has cast aspersions against Zelenksyy's legitimacy (though notably, not against Putin's) in this regard.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to 'Yes' if official Ukrainian state sources (such as the Central Election Commission of Ukraine or the Office of the President of Ukraine) declare that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has won a presidential election held before January 1, 2028, and is inaugurated for a subsequent term. It resolves to 'No' if official Ukrainian state sources declare another candidate the winner of such an election or if no presidential election occurs in Ukraine before January 1, 2028.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35296, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757806506.773464, "end_time": 1758255615.730426, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.168 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757806506.773464, "end_time": 1758255615.730426, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.168 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.832, 0.168 ], "means": [ 0.29384628188512113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1319566126324352, 0.43289785514522633, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.49980832222887484, 1.7819354348750363, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.20380305925474834, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2300507083312855, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of February 2025, Ukraine remains under martial law due to the ongoing conflict with Russia, which legally prohibits the holding of national elections. President Zelenskyy's original term was set to conclude in May 2024; however, the state of martial law has extended his tenure indefinitely. Discussions have emerged regarding the feasibility of conducting elections amid the conflict, with potential dates in 2025 being considered, contingent upon the cessation of hostilities and the lifting of martial law. Recent polls present a mixed picture - some polls show a decline in President Zelenskyy's popularity, [a recent poll finding only 16% of Ukrainians supporting his re-election](https://www.intellinews.com/zaluzhnyi-leads-ukrainian-presidential-poll-355220/), but [a recent approval rating at 54%](https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/02/19/reality-check-zelenskyys-approval-is-54-not-4-as-trump-claims-and-it-still-beats-trumps/).\n\nTrump has cast aspersions against Zelenksyy's legitimacy (though notably, not against Putin's) in this regard." }, { "id": 35294, "title": "Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Milei impeachment initiated before April 2025?", "url_title": "Milei impeachment initiated before April 2025?", "slug": "milei-impeachment-initiated-before-april-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-19T15:34:08.450986Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:09:22.709075Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.075094Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:09:22.709073Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-24T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-24T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34764, "title": "Will Argentina's Chamber of Deputies impeach President Javier Milei before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-19T15:34:08.451509Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T13:17:16.760075Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-24T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 14 February 2025, the Panamanian company KIP Protocol created the [\\$LIBRA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%24Libra) token, as part of a project called [*Viva La Libertad*](https://www.vivalalibertadproject.com/es-ar). The token launch was not publicised by the company, but a few minutes after its creation Argentina's President [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei \"Javier Milei\") published on his official Instagram, Twitter and Facebook accounts, promoting it.\n\n\n\n\\[Translation:\n\nLiberal Argentina is growing!!!\nThis private project will be dedicated to promoting the growth of the Argentine economy by funding small businesses and Argentine entrepreneurs.\nThe world wants to invest in Argentina.\n\nvivalalibertadproject.com\n\nContract: Bo9jh3wsmcC2AjakLWzNmKJ3SgtZmXEcSaW7L2FAvUsU\n\n\\$LIBRA\n\nLONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!!]\n\nThe value of the token surged to \\$5.20 and plummeted shortly thereafter, the price plummeted, resulting in approximately \\$87 million in losses for around 74,000 investors.\n\nMilei then posted [the following tweet](https://x.com/JMilei/status/1890606683291779195) (translated):\n\n> A few hours ago I posted a tweet, as I have so many other times, supporting a supposed private enterprise with which I obviously have no connection whatsoever.\n> \n> I was not aware of the details of the project and after having become aware of it I decided not to continue spreading the word (that is why I deleted the tweet).\n> \n> To the filthy rats of the political caste who want to take advantage of this situation to do harm, I want to say that every day they confirm how vile politicians are, and they increase our conviction to kick them in the ass.\n> \n> VLLC!\n\nA timeline of the events can be found [here](https://cenital.com/el-minuto-a-minuto-del-memecoin-que-promociono-milei/) (in Spanish).\n\nOpposition members have accused Milei of a rug pull and [have claimed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9x9j89evxo) that they will initiate impeachment proceedings. In Argentina, the [Chamber of Deputies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Chamber_of_Deputies) (lower house) has the sole power to initiate impeachment proceedings and must approve articles of impeachment by a two-thirds majority vote.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the Chamber of Deputies approves one or more articles of impeachment against Javier Milei with the constitutionally required two-thirds majority vote, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The outcome of the trial in the Senate is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n\nPlease note that the English words *impeach, impeached* or *impeachment* are used for the Spanish word *el acusado* or *los acusados* as used in Article 59 of Argentina's constitution ([Spanish version](https://www.congreso.gob.ar/constitucionSeccion1Cap2.php), [English version](https://www.congreso.gob.ar/constitucionSeccion1Cap2_ingles.php))", "post_id": 35294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742813589.514313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742813589.514313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005837906034678453 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.785440248525566, 0.5005459790416689, 0.28273586509769216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022474982490764704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009712334743922024, 0.0, 0.4658922613696918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.56379816110855, "peer_score": 2.352832819992827, "coverage": 0.9999543052752894, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999543052752894, "spot_peer_score": 3.982126720590283, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 97.56379816110855, "peer_archived_score": 2.352832819992827, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.982126720590283, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 425, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 14 February 2025, the Panamanian company KIP Protocol created the [\\$LIBRA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%24Libra) token, as part of a project called [*Viva La Libertad*](https://www.vivalalibertadproject.com/es-ar). The token launch was not publicised by the company, but a few minutes after its creation Argentina's President [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei \"Javier Milei\") published on his official Instagram, Twitter and Facebook accounts, promoting it.\n\n\n\n\\[Translation:\n\nLiberal Argentina is growing!!!\nThis private project will be dedicated to promoting the growth of the Argentine economy by funding small businesses and Argentine entrepreneurs.\nThe world wants to invest in Argentina.\n\nvivalalibertadproject.com\n\nContract: Bo9jh3wsmcC2AjakLWzNmKJ3SgtZmXEcSaW7L2FAvUsU\n\n\\$LIBRA\n\nLONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!!]\n\nThe value of the token surged to \\$5.20 and plummeted shortly thereafter, the price plummeted, resulting in approximately \\$87 million in losses for around 74,000 investors.\n\nMilei then posted [the following tweet](https://x.com/JMilei/status/1890606683291779195) (translated):\n\n> A few hours ago I posted a tweet, as I have so many other times, supporting a supposed private enterprise with which I obviously have no connection whatsoever.\n> \n> I was not aware of the details of the project and after having become aware of it I decided not to continue spreading the word (that is why I deleted the tweet).\n> \n> To the filthy rats of the political caste who want to take advantage of this situation to do harm, I want to say that every day they confirm how vile politicians are, and they increase our conviction to kick them in the ass.\n> \n> VLLC!\n\nA timeline of the events can be found [here](https://cenital.com/el-minuto-a-minuto-del-memecoin-que-promociono-milei/) (in Spanish).\n\nOpposition members have accused Milei of a rug pull and [have claimed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp9x9j89evxo) that they will initiate impeachment proceedings. In Argentina, the [Chamber of Deputies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Chamber_of_Deputies) (lower house) has the sole power to initiate impeachment proceedings and must approve articles of impeachment by a two-thirds majority vote." }, { "id": 35293, "title": "Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?", "short_title": "BTC trade below $90k for a whole day before Apr 5, 2025?", "url_title": "BTC trade below $90k for a whole day before Apr 5, 2025?", "slug": "btc-trade-below-90k-for-a-whole-day-before-apr-5-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-19T14:49:20.865014Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:08:53.056371Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.537596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:08:53.056369Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-27T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34763, "title": "Will bitcoin trade below $90k for a whole day before April 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-19T14:49:20.865429Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-27T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-27T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-27T13:47:23.636167Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-27T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin rose significantly after the 2024 US presidential elections, from \\$65k to more than \\$100k, in anticipation of favorable cryptocurrency policies under Donald Trump. The inauguration in January 2025 saw Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of \\$109,114.88. However, recent economic data indicating higher-than-expected inflation has [reignited concerns](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-briefly-drops-below-usd95-000-as-inflation-fears-reignite-11678511) about prolonged elevated interest rates, leading to BTC temporarily dropping to \\$95k. Still, [certain investors](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/anthony-scaramucci-was-a-hot-wall-street-manager-last-year-thanks-to-crypto-now-he-sees-bitcoin-hitting-200-000-this-year-d3909a39?utm_source=chatgpt.com) expect that bitcoin will continue its overall trend and will hit \\$200k during 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if bitcoin's daily high falls below \\$90,000 on any day after February 23, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, according to CoinMarketCap's [historical data](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).", "fine_print": "If CoinMarketCap does not report these data before April 7, 2025, Metaculus might use the daily high of an alternative credible source to resolve this question.", "post_id": 35293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740647334.852188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740647334.852188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.952652397385408 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 5.611205236714306 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.6789752786305825, "peer_score": 2.572950457088377, "coverage": 0.06593695089224974, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998439462570226, "spot_peer_score": 37.273708713297324, "spot_baseline_score": 99.85565831303313, "baseline_archived_score": 3.6789752786305825, "peer_archived_score": 2.572950457088377, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.273708713297324, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 99.85565831303313 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin rose significantly after the 2024 US presidential elections, from \\$65k to more than \\$100k, in anticipation of favorable cryptocurrency policies under Donald Trump. The inauguration in January 2025 saw Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of \\$109,114.88. However, recent economic data indicating higher-than-expected inflation has [reignited concerns](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-briefly-drops-below-usd95-000-as-inflation-fears-reignite-11678511) about prolonged elevated interest rates, leading to BTC temporarily dropping to \\$95k. Still, [certain investors](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/anthony-scaramucci-was-a-hot-wall-street-manager-last-year-thanks-to-crypto-now-he-sees-bitcoin-hitting-200-000-this-year-d3909a39?utm_source=chatgpt.com) expect that bitcoin will continue its overall trend and will hit \\$200k during 2025." }, { "id": 35287, "title": "Will a floating community with a permanent population of at least 100 people exist by the end of 2026, as reported by the Seasteading Institute?", "short_title": "Floating community of at least 100 people by end of 2026?", "url_title": "Floating community of at least 100 people by end of 2026?", "slug": "floating-community-of-at-least-100-people-by-end-of-2026", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-19T02:07:11.557495Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T19:38:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.056476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-20T19:38:46Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-20T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32677, "name": "Foresight Institute", "type": "community", "slug": "foresight", "description": "[Vision Weekend 2025 Puerto Rico 2025](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/), hosted by the Foresight Institute in Old San Juan from February 21-23, brings together leaders in nanotech, biotech, neurotech, computation, and space technology. This Vision Weekend focuses on \"Paths to Progress\" with presentations covering topics like existential hope, longevity, brain-computer interfaces, AI security, and fusion energy.", "order": 3, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 8, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34760, "title": "Will a floating community with a permanent population of at least 100 people exist by the end of 2026, as reported by the Seasteading Institute?", "created_at": "2025-02-19T02:07:11.557921Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Mitchell Suchner*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitchell-suchner-458492160/) *provided this question for their talk* Seasteads as Seeding Grounds for new Technologies *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nThe seasteading movement seeks to establish permanent human communities on floating platforms in international waters. The [Seasteading Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seasteading_Institute), founded in 2008 by Patri Friedman and Wayne Gramlich, has been at the forefront of this effort. Notable developments have included early concept work with various architectural firms, a 2017 [Memorandum of Understanding with French Polynesia](https://www.seasteading.org/government-french-polynesia-signs-agreement-seasteaders-floating-island-project/) and Ocean Builders' [SeaPod project in Panama](https://youtu.be/EB4ztHPSuGQ).\n\nThe movement faces several technical challenges including wave motion mitigation, power generation and storage, fresh water production, waste management, food production, internet connectivity, emergency services, and establishing legal frameworks for governance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2027, the Seasteading Institute confirms that a floating community exists and the available evidence indicates that community meets **all** of the following criteria:\n\n* The community must be located on a floating structure or set of structures that remains continuously afloat (not resting on the seafloor) and maintains structural integrity against normal maritime conditions. It must be permanently located either in international waters or within the territorial waters of a sovereign nation with explicit permission.\n* The community must maintain a full-time resident population of at least 100 individuals who have lived there continuously for at least 6 months.", "fine_print": "For population counting purposes, residents must be legally present on the seastead. Children count toward the total, but rotating staff/crew members and visitors/tourists do not. Multiple structures can be considered one community if they are within 1 nautical mile of each other and are under unified governance or their leadership explicitly acknowledges that they are the same community.\n\nThe question explicitly excludes cruise ships, military vessels, oil platforms, research stations, temporary floating structures, and communities primarily situated on fixed artificial islands.\n\nIf the Seasteading Institute ceases operations, the question will be annulled. In cases where natural disasters temporarily displace residents, the question will not resolve negatively if the structure remains viable, residents intend to return, and the displacement lasts less than 60 days.", "post_id": 35287, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756833279.329522, "end_time": 1760159657.159, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756833279.329522, "end_time": 1760159657.159, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.16949656956993095 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.192867604780828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.9253059397414548, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Mitchell Suchner*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitchell-suchner-458492160/) *provided this question for their talk* Seasteads as Seeding Grounds for new Technologies *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nThe seasteading movement seeks to establish permanent human communities on floating platforms in international waters. The [Seasteading Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Seasteading_Institute), founded in 2008 by Patri Friedman and Wayne Gramlich, has been at the forefront of this effort. Notable developments have included early concept work with various architectural firms, a 2017 [Memorandum of Understanding with French Polynesia](https://www.seasteading.org/government-french-polynesia-signs-agreement-seasteaders-floating-island-project/) and Ocean Builders' [SeaPod project in Panama](https://youtu.be/EB4ztHPSuGQ).\n\nThe movement faces several technical challenges including wave motion mitigation, power generation and storage, fresh water production, waste management, food production, internet connectivity, emergency services, and establishing legal frameworks for governance." }, { "id": 35286, "title": "Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?", "short_title": "900000 Russian losses before March 21, 2025?", "url_title": "900000 Russian losses before March 21, 2025?", "slug": "900000-russian-losses-before-march-21-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:49:39.241459Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T17:10:02.010205Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.998254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-21T17:10:02.010203Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T17:25:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34759, "title": "Will 900,000 Russian personnel losses be reported before March 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-18T18:49:39.241887Z", "open_time": "2025-02-24T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T17:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-23T17:27:56.331673Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-20T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nOn February 19, 2025, they [reported](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/the-estimated-combat-losses-of-russians-over-the-last-day-1-300-persons-175-ua-vs-and-72-artillery-systems) a total of 862,390 estimated casualties. At the same time the daily rate is being constantly above 1000 since July 25, 2024. With the pace of 1300 casualties per day the number of 900,000 casualties should be reached on March 20, 2025.\n\nHistorical data can be tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 21, 2025, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 900,000 or more total Russian personnel losses on their [official site](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news?tags=Combat) or public media pages ([Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua), [Telegram](https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU), [X.com](https://x.com/GeneralStaffUA)).\n\nIf all reports published before March 21, 2025 show numbers below 900,000, this question resolves as **No**. This includes the case when the General Staff of the AFU stops publishing their data due to a ceasefire or peace agreement.", "fine_print": "* \"Personnel losses\" in this context are *killed and wounded* soldiers and that wounded soldiers may return to the battlefield later.\n* In the past there was at least one occasion on [May 27, 2023](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/594141432898939?ref=embed_post) when the error in the previous day's report was admitted and corrected. For this reason, the question will resolve two days later than any published report, although it will retroactively close before the date the report was first published.\n* Historical trackers mentioned in the Background information ([russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/), [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)) may be used as secondary resolution sources if the main resolution pages are banned/unavailable.", "post_id": 35286, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742424130.793676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742424130.793676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09328411573313511 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.649113703283589, 2.3144336939019956, 1.3768931376609805, 0.1423843563901091, 0.0, 1.6443302438142604, 2.4744416479765503, 0.25049891492375387, 0.2316291348766185, 0.4074329698266159, 1.2010280869913628, 0.0, 0.5977612987402761, 0.0, 0.06666153381636768, 0.7962700270168812, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013401757476467992, 0.4421913400799099, 0.0, 0.30769771480391356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004374483156450761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07297864542578526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4044436408528118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14365297647072853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11243806167157062 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.6126729716613, "peer_score": 12.903623232552077, "coverage": 0.9999808728950816, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999808728950816, "spot_peer_score": 21.164453476117604, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 70.6126729716613, "peer_archived_score": 12.903623232552077, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.164453476117604, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 568, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nOn February 19, 2025, they [reported](https://mod.gov.ua/en/news/the-estimated-combat-losses-of-russians-over-the-last-day-1-300-persons-175-ua-vs-and-72-artillery-systems) a total of 862,390 estimated casualties. At the same time the daily rate is being constantly above 1000 since July 25, 2024. With the pace of 1300 casualties per day the number of 900,000 casualties should be reached on March 20, 2025.\n\nHistorical data can be tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)." }, { "id": 35276, "title": "Will any country other than China adopt the Chinese renminbi as its official currency before 2040?", "short_title": "Official Adoption of Chinese Renminbi Outside China by 2040", "url_title": "Official Adoption of Chinese Renminbi Outside China by 2040", "slug": "official-adoption-of-chinese-renminbi-outside-china-by-2040", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-18T00:40:04.114524Z", "published_at": "2025-03-11T00:51:42.760658Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.614038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-11T00:51:42.760656Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-13T00:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34758, "title": "Will any country other than China adopt the Chinese renminbi as its official currency before 2040?", "created_at": "2025-02-18T00:40:04.114943Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T00:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T00:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-17T00:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2041-01-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2025, the renminbi is the official currency of the People's Republic of China (except in the two Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau).\n\nInternational use of the renminbi has grown along with China's role in global trade. For example, [in 2016, the renminbi became a reserve currency of the International Monetary Fund](https://www.britannica.com/money/renminbi). The CNY's [share of IMF allocated reserves grew from 1.1% in 2016 to about 2.2% in 2024](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4), having reached nearly 3% in 2021:\n\n\n\nSimilarly, according to [SWIFT's monthly RMB Tracker](https://www.swift.com/products/rmb-tracker), use of RMB for international payments approximately doubled during 2019-2025 from just under 2% to just under 4%:\n\n\n\nDespite this recent growth, the global role of China's currency is small compared to the size of its economy ([source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/internationalization-of-the-chinese-renminbi-progress-and-outlook-20240830.html)):\n\n\n\nAccording to [this May 2023 paper from Asia House](https://www.asiahouse.org/research-analysis/the-renminbis-rise-and-its-accelerated-use-in-global-trade-finance), international use of the RMB faces obstacles stemming from [capital controls](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/capital-controls/) enacted by Beijing. These limit the ability of trade partners to seamlessly convert payments into other currencies. The same paper lists six potential \"tipping points\" that could lead to significantly greater international use of the RMB:\n\n* China’s top trading partners move to RMB invoicing.\n* RMB is boosted through currency swap lines.\n* The petroyuan rises as a counterbalance to the petrodollar.\n* The digital eCNY currency boosts the RMB reserve share.\n* China’s digitalised clearing systems continue expanding.\n* Liberalisation and digitalisation of China’s bond markets grows.\n\nOne potential path for internationalization of the RMB is its adoption as official currency by countries other than China. This could take the form of replacement of local currency (as in the replacement of the Ecuadorian sucre by the US dollar in 2000) or RMB's adoption alongside the local currency.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves Yes if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that any UN member state other than China is using the Chinese renminbi as an official currency prior to January 1, 2040. Announcements alone don't count; positive resolution requires the adoption to take effect before the deadline. Measures short of full official adoption, such as RMB invoicing, swap lines, or a currency peg, are not enough.", "fine_print": "Only adoption by full UN member states, not observers, counts.\n\nRMB doesn't have to be the sole official currency. As long as RMB is officially and de jure recognized as legal tender in the country, resolution will be positive. A similar example is the use in Panama of the US dollar alongside the balboa. But unofficial adoption, such as the widespread use in Cambodia of the US dollar alongside the riel, would not count.\n\nTerminology: Renminbi (RMB) is the currency and medium of exchange, while its unit of account is the yuan (CNY). The distinction is similar to that between \"pound\" and \"sterling.\" For this question, terms like \"Chinese renminbi\" and \"Chinese yuan\" and their abbreviations are used interchangeably.\n\nIf China changes the name of its currency, or adopts a new currency, then the question resolution will be based on the new name or currency. If China adopts a currency already in official use by another country, the question will resolve Yes. If China and another country each switch to a new currency simultaneously (e.g., by entering a currency union with a new currency analogous to the adoption in Europe of the euro), then this counts as Yes.", "post_id": 35276, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757034787.655236, "end_time": 1798669752.418, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757034787.655236, "end_time": 1798669752.418, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4344264255893584 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2025, the renminbi is the official currency of the People's Republic of China (except in the two Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau).\n\nInternational use of the renminbi has grown along with China's role in global trade. For example, [in 2016, the renminbi became a reserve currency of the International Monetary Fund](https://www.britannica.com/money/renminbi). The CNY's [share of IMF allocated reserves grew from 1.1% in 2016 to about 2.2% in 2024](https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4), having reached nearly 3% in 2021:\n\n\n\nSimilarly, according to [SWIFT's monthly RMB Tracker](https://www.swift.com/products/rmb-tracker), use of RMB for international payments approximately doubled during 2019-2025 from just under 2% to just under 4%:\n\n\n\nDespite this recent growth, the global role of China's currency is small compared to the size of its economy ([source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/internationalization-of-the-chinese-renminbi-progress-and-outlook-20240830.html)):\n\n\n\nAccording to [this May 2023 paper from Asia House](https://www.asiahouse.org/research-analysis/the-renminbis-rise-and-its-accelerated-use-in-global-trade-finance), international use of the RMB faces obstacles stemming from [capital controls](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/capital-controls/) enacted by Beijing. These limit the ability of trade partners to seamlessly convert payments into other currencies. The same paper lists six potential \"tipping points\" that could lead to significantly greater international use of the RMB:\n\n* China’s top trading partners move to RMB invoicing.\n* RMB is boosted through currency swap lines.\n* The petroyuan rises as a counterbalance to the petrodollar.\n* The digital eCNY currency boosts the RMB reserve share.\n* China’s digitalised clearing systems continue expanding.\n* Liberalisation and digitalisation of China’s bond markets grows.\n\nOne potential path for internationalization of the RMB is its adoption as official currency by countries other than China. This could take the form of replacement of local currency (as in the replacement of the Ecuadorian sucre by the US dollar in 2000) or RMB's adoption alongside the local currency." }, { "id": 35272, "title": "¿Invadirá China a Taiwán en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Invasión de Taiwán en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Invasión de Taiwán en 2025?", "slug": "invasion-de-taiwan-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T15:39:03.339853Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T08:02:39.436987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:48Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 320, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34756, "title": "¿Invadirá China a Taiwán en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T15:39:03.340210Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "La República Popular China (RPC) oficialmente afirma ser el único gobierno legítimo de las islas de Taiwán, Penghu, Kinmen y Matsu, mientras que la República de China (ROC) actualmente gobierna las islas. Las tensiones entre ambas partes han persistido desde la Guerra Civil China. Aunque no ha habido conflicto activo desde 1979, no se ha firmado ningún armisticio formal o tratado de paz.\n\nEn los últimos años se ha producido un aumento de la actividad militar y las tensiones diplomáticas, con China realizando ejercicios militares cerca de Taiwán y aumentando la presión a través de medios económicos y políticos. Estados Unidos y naciones aliadas también han expresado su apoyo a la autonomía de Taiwán, complicando aún más la situación geopolítica. La posibilidad de un conflicto sigue siendo una preocupación mundial significativa, con potenciales consecuencias para la estabilidad regional, las cadenas de suministro globales y las relaciones diplomáticas internacionales.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, en cualquier momento antes del 1 de enero de 2026, se cumple una o ambas de las siguientes condiciones:\n\n	•\t(1) Tanto Associated Press como The New York Times informan que la República Popular China ha lanzado una invasión a gran escala de Taiwán;\n\n	•\t(2) Al menos 1.000 tropas del Ejército Popular de Liberación han sido desplegadas en Taiwán con el objetivo de poner la soberanía de la isla principal bajo el control de la RPC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35272, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757836948.763581, "end_time": 1758238520.515, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757836948.763581, "end_time": 1758238520.515, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02052386263794815 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.809848613247221, 5.373644768573862, 1.1844896198144879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7495165527495318, 0.2329775881808287, 0.0, 0.09818838287618935, 0.06452395506976416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11524141917366568, 0.0, 0.10642834088513557, 0.7408711152380609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 595, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "La República Popular China (RPC) oficialmente afirma ser el único gobierno legítimo de las islas de Taiwán, Penghu, Kinmen y Matsu, mientras que la República de China (ROC) actualmente gobierna las islas. Las tensiones entre ambas partes han persistido desde la Guerra Civil China. Aunque no ha habido conflicto activo desde 1979, no se ha firmado ningún armisticio formal o tratado de paz.\n\nEn los últimos años se ha producido un aumento de la actividad militar y las tensiones diplomáticas, con China realizando ejercicios militares cerca de Taiwán y aumentando la presión a través de medios económicos y políticos. Estados Unidos y naciones aliadas también han expresado su apoyo a la autonomía de Taiwán, complicando aún más la situación geopolítica. La posibilidad de un conflicto sigue siendo una preocupación mundial significativa, con potenciales consecuencias para la estabilidad regional, las cadenas de suministro globales y las relaciones diplomáticas internacionales." }, { "id": 35271, "title": "¿Anunciará Anthropic un modelo IA Claude 4 en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Nuevo modelo de Anthropic en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Nuevo modelo de Anthropic en 2025?", "slug": "nuevo-modelo-de-anthropic-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T15:16:29.751462Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.720936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:38Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-21T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 300, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34755, "title": "¿Anunciará Anthropic un modelo IA Claude 4 en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T15:16:29.751816Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-27T21:45:21.324024Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-21T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Anthropic es una [<u>empresa de inteligencia artificial</u>](https://www.anthropic.com/) conocida por su serie de modelos Claude. Claude 3.7 es el modelo más reciente. La empresa ha mostrado un compromiso continuo con el avance de sus tecnologías, lo que lleva a expectativas de que se lance un modelo superior en 2025. Las especulaciones en torno a Claude 4 sugieren posibles mejoras en las capacidades de razonamiento, comprensión multimodal y eficiencia en el manejo de consultas complejas. Dado el panorama de la IA en rápida evolución, Anthropic podría acelerar el desarrollo para seguir siendo competitiva frente a OpenAI, Google DeepMind y otros laboratorios de IA emergentes.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, antes del 1 de enero de 2026, Anthropic publica un documento (como un blog, artículo o vídeo) anunciando el lanzamiento de un modelo que es explícitamente presentado por Anthropic como la siguiente versión principal/el sucesor de la familia de modelos Claude 3/3.7 y que recibe una nueva designación de versión principal en el esquema de nomenclatura de modelos de Anthropic.", "fine_print": "	•\tA efectos de esta pregunta, se considerará que el nuevo modelo existe si el documento publicado por Anthropic describe algunos resultados de rendimiento del modelo o indica que ha sido creado. Una referencia al progreso en el entrenamiento o desarrollo no será suficiente por sí sola. Si Anthropic publica algunos resultados de rendimiento y declara que el modelo todavía está en alguna forma de entrenamiento o prueba, esta pregunta se resolverá como **Sí**.\n\n	•\tEl modelo debe ser anunciado por Anthropic o cualquier entidad que adquiera legalmente o se fusione con Anthropic.\n\n	•\tEl esquema de nomenclatura no necesita ser una continuación clara del esquema de nomenclatura anterior. Por ejemplo, un modelo que cumpla con el resto de los criterios y se llame \"Claude Next\" resolvería esta pregunta como **Sí**.", "post_id": 35271, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747841190.000206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 296, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.943 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747841190.000206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 296, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.943 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9466509842270052 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021828999067571495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3877152354356305e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18037502031609137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.170852148992196e-08, 0.0006720649317549861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03152660617388585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8369443465968296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001712653794238936, 0.0, 0.0, 7.970305131228223e-07, 1.9192523586240534e-06, 0.3419935075713259, 0.0, 0.00010057060557629729, 3.2983941170591786e-06, 0.0, 7.064300420592337e-07, 0.09646434828084667, 0.25718353297028534, 0.29056408883420354, 0.006479412259092705, 0.24092584255450894, 0.5654484271684439, 0.0004451791568800227, 0.3097727349329553, 0.011370551441229313, 0.22856676398940648, 0.15344572977048482, 1.335607736700587, 0.0, 0.0013288475851779109, 0.908285101775903, 0.5041981639414587, 0.2741130204698974, 0.10683723341888787, 2.0486109508612342, 2.7734519624165888, 0.06067970074134951, 1.97158468463497, 1.9721853056488245, 17.40216496482686 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 29.426344538503415, "peer_score": 2.5875251815864693, "coverage": 0.30229547583118427, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980652900049196, "spot_peer_score": 7.563198388770567, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 29.426344538503415, "peer_archived_score": 2.5875251815864693, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.563198388770567, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 452, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Anthropic es una [<u>empresa de inteligencia artificial</u>](https://www.anthropic.com/) conocida por su serie de modelos Claude. Claude 3.7 es el modelo más reciente. La empresa ha mostrado un compromiso continuo con el avance de sus tecnologías, lo que lleva a expectativas de que se lance un modelo superior en 2025. Las especulaciones en torno a Claude 4 sugieren posibles mejoras en las capacidades de razonamiento, comprensión multimodal y eficiencia en el manejo de consultas complejas. Dado el panorama de la IA en rápida evolución, Anthropic podría acelerar el desarrollo para seguir siendo competitiva frente a OpenAI, Google DeepMind y otros laboratorios de IA emergentes." }, { "id": 35270, "title": "¿Anunciará OpenAI un modelo IA GPT-5 en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Anunciará OpenAI GPT-5 en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Anunciará OpenAI GPT-5 en 2025?", "slug": "anunciara-openai-gpt-5-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T15:03:30.458713Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.688222Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:27Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-08T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 393, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34754, "title": "Will OpenAI announce a GPT-5 AI model in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T15:03:30.459048Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-08T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-08T20:01:40.242634Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 14, 2023, OpenAI announced its GPT-4 model. On May 13, 2024, OpenAI released GPT-4o, highlighting improvements to vision and reasoning capabilities. In February 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared a roadmap that included details about the GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 models. OpenAI plans to integrate several technologies into GPT-5, promising a more unified and capable system. Although exact dates were not given, it was mentioned that the launch could occur in \"[ <u>weeks/months</u> ](https://www.axios.com/2025/02/12/openai-chatgpt-roadmap-gpt5)\".\n\n There has been speculation about possible advancements in GPT-5, including improved multimodal capabilities, increased processing efficiency, and better adaptability in real-world applications. OpenAI has also focused on refining AI alignment and safety measures, which may impact the timing of GPT-5’s release. But the competitive landscape for AI models continues to evolve rapidly, so new systems are expected to launch quickly.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be answered **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, OpenAI publishes a paper (e.g., a blog post, article, or video, but not a tweet) announcing the existence of GPT-5.", "fine_print": "• For the purposes of this question, GPT-5 will be considered to exist if the OpenAI published paper describes some GPT-5 performance results or indicates that GPT-5 has been built. A reference to progress in training or development of GPT-5 will not be sufficient on its own. If OpenAI publishes some GPT-5 performance results and states that GPT-5 is still in some form of training or testing, this question will be resolved as **Yes**.\n\n • The model must be announced by OpenAI or any entity that legally acquires or merges with OpenAI.\n\n • If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualified model as GPT-5, Metaculus may determine whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5.", "post_id": 35270, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754595533.950659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754595533.950659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9583516352001368 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06670806804016349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.005545480484895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.0, 0.20136289509319918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24106033391707232, 0.04013091792878877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9503748144584436, 0.0, 0.02721846152446844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5010085847885619, 0.0, 0.0884146651186696, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.24128739730025286, 0.5396972618812853, 0.008653094397426326, 0.44555813313841275, 1.3489947706708438, 12.495109199195186 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 57.906928176757035, "peer_score": 5.952610731691907, "coverage": 0.5856731946796633, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9990380023687039, "spot_peer_score": 10.934356358740231, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 57.906928176757035, "peer_archived_score": 5.952610731691907, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.934356358740231, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 34, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 668, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 14, 2023, OpenAI announced its GPT-4 model. On May 13, 2024, OpenAI released GPT-4o, highlighting improvements to vision and reasoning capabilities. In February 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared a roadmap that included details about the GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 models. OpenAI plans to integrate several technologies into GPT-5, promising a more unified and capable system. Although exact dates were not given, it was mentioned that the launch could occur in \"[ <u>weeks/months</u> ](https://www.axios.com/2025/02/12/openai-chatgpt-roadmap-gpt5)\".\n\n There has been speculation about possible advancements in GPT-5, including improved multimodal capabilities, increased processing efficiency, and better adaptability in real-world applications. OpenAI has also focused on refining AI alignment and safety measures, which may impact the timing of GPT-5’s release. But the competitive landscape for AI models continues to evolve rapidly, so new systems are expected to launch quickly." }, { "id": 35269, "title": "¿Aterrizarán en la Luna dos o más naves espaciales en 2025?", "short_title": "¿Dos naves en la Luna en 2025?", "url_title": "¿Dos naves en la Luna en 2025?", "slug": "dos-naves-en-la-luna-en-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T14:50:57.820559Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T12:58:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.229743Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T12:58:01Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-06T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34753, "title": "¿Aterrizarán en la Luna dos o más naves espaciales en 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T14:50:57.820952Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-06T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-07T14:21:02.537061Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-06T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "La exploración lunar ha sido un aspecto clave en la historia de la exploración espacial, con misiones notables de múltiples países. A enero de 2025, ha habido un total de [<u>26 alunizajes suaves exitosos</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon#Landing_sites), realizados por cinco naciones: Estados Unidos, la Unión Soviética, Japón, China e India. Notablemente, seis de estos aterrizajes fueron misiones tripuladas Apollo llevadas a cabo por Estados Unidos entre 1969 y 1972.\n\nNo hubo aterrizajes entre 1972 y 2013. Sin embargo, la exploración lunar se ha acelerado en los últimos años. Entre 2019 y 2023, hubo tres aterrizajes —Chang'e 4, Chang'e 5 (China) y Chandrayaan-3 (India)— y en 2024, otros tres —SLIM (Japón), IM-1 (EE.UU.) y Chang'e 6 (China). Varias misiones lunares están [<u>planificadas para 2025</u>](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/missions/launches-moon-landings-and-more-the-top-spaceflight-events-to-look-forward-to-in-2025), con un creciente interés por parte de agencias espaciales y empresas privadas.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como el número de naves espaciales únicas que logren un alunizaje suave en la Luna y sobrevivan el tiempo suficiente después del aterrizaje para transmitir datos de vuelta a la Tierra durante 2025.", "fine_print": "	•\tPara contar, una nave espacial deberá transmitir cualquier tipo de datos después del alunizaje suave.\n\n	•\tEl éxito de la misión será irrelevante para la resolución de esta pregunta.", "post_id": 35269, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741355614.195473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741355614.195473, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 140, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8934318027128645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07715411147762247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.989121289631428e-05, 0.0, 0.011291666108866073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11210351668559562, 0.0, 0.024304705288517307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019028639161957515, 0.0, 0.009842387007519528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01054556721111364, 0.0, 0.0022708594208157877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24048582286614562, 0.10098658911165614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03317330499126041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004387326089193598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029436034164519582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03509714900339876, 0.11804971314622484, 0.006117969294609486, 0.0001229500427680457, 0.36221919483599646, 0.10640565876855741, 1.3975687375036256, 0.00917997187888808, 0.012651008887869955, 0.02607425644986581, 0.13761411698148743, 0.308005471405763, 0.04976722222669892, 0.00017167937732653064, 0.0020801707096139324, 0.07465475059637483, 1.1133700221198637, 0.00039676770828342244, 0.005119384602918173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6161243876572424, 0.09665242031296108, 0.05869312410468624, 0.01909838137686343, 0.035194051858112294, 2.918105640321257, 0.5169176404849697, 0.8966250631281054, 2.6004429563938105, 0.16825342650990058, 1.630953257855277, 0.058885549016232275, 2.68101640095286, 0.3150319193035038, 5.1332745244212195 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 1.8290787185477002, "peer_score": 0.8803150026288445, "coverage": 0.02559918735506093, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9777292085676607, "spot_peer_score": 35.29055653962139, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "baseline_archived_score": 1.8290787185477002, "peer_archived_score": 0.8803150026288445, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.29055653962139, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "La exploración lunar ha sido un aspecto clave en la historia de la exploración espacial, con misiones notables de múltiples países. A enero de 2025, ha habido un total de [<u>26 alunizajes suaves exitosos</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon#Landing_sites), realizados por cinco naciones: Estados Unidos, la Unión Soviética, Japón, China e India. Notablemente, seis de estos aterrizajes fueron misiones tripuladas Apollo llevadas a cabo por Estados Unidos entre 1969 y 1972.\n\nNo hubo aterrizajes entre 1972 y 2013. Sin embargo, la exploración lunar se ha acelerado en los últimos años. Entre 2019 y 2023, hubo tres aterrizajes —Chang'e 4, Chang'e 5 (China) y Chandrayaan-3 (India)— y en 2024, otros tres —SLIM (Japón), IM-1 (EE.UU.) y Chang'e 6 (China). Varias misiones lunares están [<u>planificadas para 2025</u>](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/missions/launches-moon-landings-and-more-the-top-spaceflight-events-to-look-forward-to-in-2025), con un creciente interés por parte de agencias espaciales y empresas privadas." }, { "id": 35268, "title": "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?", "short_title": "2025 warmest year on record?", "url_title": "2025 warmest year on record?", "slug": "2025-warmest-year-on-record", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T14:20:32.715514Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T12:57:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T05:14:48.997783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T12:57:56Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 631, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34752, "title": "Will 2025 be the warmest year on record globally, according to the ECMWF?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T14:20:32.715873Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Global warming and climate phenomena such as El Niño have contributed to exceptionally high temperatures in recent years. 2023 and 2024 were consecutively the warmest years on record. In early 2025, climate models indicate a continued warming trend. For more information, visit the [ <u>Copernicus Climate Change Service</u> ](https://climate.copernicus.eu/). In early 2025, [ <u>real-time data</u> ](https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/) suggest that this year is closely following the record warmth of 2024, or slightly below at this stage.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF](https://climate.copernicus.eu) reports that 2025 was the warmest year on record based on global mean surface air temperature. It will be resolved as **No** if any other year holds the record.", "fine_print": "• If the Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF does not publish such a report or data by 7 January 2026, this question will be resolved based on their latest data or estimates, or the equivalent NASA report or data. If these are not available by 1 February 2026, this question will be **void**.", "post_id": 35268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757826878.718565, "end_time": 1757861485.572, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.016 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757826878.718565, "end_time": 1757861485.572, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.016 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.984, 0.016 ], "means": [ 0.11171258798999156 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.223055265937928, 7.349124888172599, 2.107580312863507, 1.2939574168370196, 0.25679891879469086, 1.278030087803402, 0.6884662527237864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21835434206869458, 0.26430801263047554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030332771541447954, 0.0, 0.5210368510308627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018751073698452227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.338655240952036e-05, 0.2092360284960723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6373880578692137, 0.9132179444337422, 0.0009856045077656645, 0.010413832392830353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02316179493181433, 9.021541841684374e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15255812206117797, 0.0, 0.000673041456667699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00537138995917402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003817591921680922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22180226260400135, 0.0021563177460832148, 0.01407956203701032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005755106063014978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18934534527024477, 0.0, 0.012354728437226747, 0.024800491961821654, 0.0, 0.37749995561293503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006439135305666423, 0.011374249972431307, 0.0, 0.23370445597128536, 0.0034818336604185906, 0.0, 0.02548016157148698, 0.0, 0.008226760038416934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18936136456461122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06189921714545745 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 57, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1571, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Global warming and climate phenomena such as El Niño have contributed to exceptionally high temperatures in recent years. 2023 and 2024 were consecutively the warmest years on record. In early 2025, climate models indicate a continued warming trend. For more information, visit the [ <u>Copernicus Climate Change Service</u> ](https://climate.copernicus.eu/). In early 2025, [ <u>real-time data</u> ](https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/) suggest that this year is closely following the record warmth of 2024, or slightly below at this stage." }, { "id": 35267, "title": "¿Ganará el FC Barcelona tanto la Liga F como la Champions League Femenina en la temporada 2024/25?", "short_title": "¿Barcelona gana Liga F y Champions Femenina 2024/25?", "url_title": "¿Barcelona gana Liga F y Champions Femenina 2024/25?", "slug": "barcelona-gana-liga-f-y-champions-femenina-202425", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T14:06:55.511804Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.860420Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:15Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T17:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 267, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34751, "title": "¿Ganará el FC Barcelona tanto la Liga F como la Champions League Femenina en la temporada 2024/25?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T14:06:55.512164Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T17:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-25T17:09:05.351699Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-17T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "El Barcelona es uno de los clubes más exitosos en el fútbol femenino, compitiendo en la Liga F (Primera División Femenina española) y en la UEFA Women's Champions League. En los últimos años, han dominado tanto las competiciones nacionales como las europeas, consolidando su reputación como una potencia en el fútbol femenino.\n\nEn la temporada 2023/24, el FC Barcelona ganó tanto la Liga F como la Champions League Femenina. A febrero de 2025, lideran la clasificación de la Liga F, mostrando una racha invicta y un fuerte registro goleador. En la UEFA Women's Champions League, el Barcelona ha avanzado a las fases eliminatorias y sigue siendo uno de los contendientes más fuertes.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el FC Barcelona gana tanto la Liga F como la UEFA Women's Champions League en la temporada 2024/25. Se resolverá como **No** si no ganan uno o ambos títulos. La resolución se basará en los resultados oficiales publicados en las páginas web de la Liga F y la UEFA.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747515785.239879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747515785.239879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 264, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6672564958946529 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4210721752208345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46947350023897494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007115415038325515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3869558273737294e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5856605612638057e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026169156484428095, 0.0, 0.0013543602880388302, 0.0, 0.016184674723821908, 0.29575799907433165, 0.0, 0.05684616484319729, 0.0017138329682599958, 0.0, 0.3312590914726765, 0.01489868640761828, 0.09047851955411709, 0.022280012624513457, 4.7943289404733e-06, 0.22940919279770733, 0.07840730668455731, 0.03114733789420676, 0.10944629986644958, 0.0008862315025061413, 0.42914003713654125, 0.0014022027046408957, 0.01552923603821057, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4166784426625347, 0.0166653939637524, 0.0011577881876666419, 0.25983041516824745, 0.008997824226985552, 0.5813461411857258, 0.014280761044646173, 0.11043337989556207, 2.7439851615108e-05, 0.00014600373970352745, 0.037518827662987725, 1.3534875424117778, 0.49490431709212857, 0.0, 0.5432348913922195, 4.99601797546755, 0.6419308376206665, 1.1816628863786511, 0.4433143206460722, 0.5933327436107364, 1.1013136643923582, 0.5404375474399061, 0.12846764789003395, 0.023328469146678285, 0.7305877890548504, 2.4011552355955574, 0.29677516979794344, 0.12173104883259177, 0.0, 0.09884453709385095, 0.5732232557020442, 0.2193345812797774, 0.0, 1.616829073426778, 0.0, 1.9157317665566547, 0.010613220762220415, 0.011594387302868922, 0.02959485507143155, 0.0, 0.24099922165280435, 0.017570723604513186, 0.0, 0.8050448672596139, 0.0, 0.31435695651377316, 0.6615234856053025, 0.005257620088536201, 3.848221855882203e-05, 0.020676449485192858, 0.0, 3.6118944173823517e-07, 0.0, 0.00020303947963779757, 3.798480503107628 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -29.2277173302961, "peer_score": 37.25386159683008, "coverage": 0.9979679646734568, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979679646734568, "spot_peer_score": 35.931343946149774, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -29.2277173302961, "peer_archived_score": 37.25386159683008, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.931343946149774, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 424, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "El Barcelona es uno de los clubes más exitosos en el fútbol femenino, compitiendo en la Liga F (Primera División Femenina española) y en la UEFA Women's Champions League. En los últimos años, han dominado tanto las competiciones nacionales como las europeas, consolidando su reputación como una potencia en el fútbol femenino.\n\nEn la temporada 2023/24, el FC Barcelona ganó tanto la Liga F como la Champions League Femenina. A febrero de 2025, lideran la clasificación de la Liga F, mostrando una racha invicta y un fuerte registro goleador. En la UEFA Women's Champions League, el Barcelona ha avanzado a las fases eliminatorias y sigue siendo uno de los contendientes más fuertes." }, { "id": 35266, "title": "¿Será Kylian Mbappé el máximo goleador en LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?", "short_title": "¿Mbappé máximo goleador en LaLiga 2024/25?", "url_title": "¿Mbappé máximo goleador en LaLiga 2024/25?", "slug": "mbappe-maximo-goleador-en-laliga-202425", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:54:37.659293Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.587866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:35:03Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-26T10:29:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 263, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34750, "title": "¿Será Kylian Mbappé el máximo goleador en LaLiga EA Sports 2024/25?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:54:37.659945Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-26T10:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-26T10:32:05.458554Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "El Trofeo Pichichi se otorga al máximo goleador de LaLiga cada temporada. A febrero de 2025, la lucha por el Trofeo Pichichi en la temporada 2024/25 de LaLiga es particularmente competitiva. El delantero del FC Barcelona Robert Lewandowski lidera la tabla de goleadores con 20 goles, seguido de cerca por Kylian Mbappé del Real Madrid, que ha anotado 17 veces. Otros contendientes destacados incluyen a Raphinha (Barcelona) y Ante Budimir (Osasuna), ambos con 13 goles.\n\nEn temporadas recientes, el máximo goleador ha sido Robert Lewandowski con el Barcelona (2023/24), Karim Benzema con el Real Madrid (2021/22 y 2022/23) y Lionel Messi, Barcelona (2019/20 y 2020/21).", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si Kylian Mbappé aparece como el jugador con más goles en la clasificación oficial de goleadores al final de la temporada 2024/25, según [<u>la página web oficial de LaLiga</u>](https://www.laliga.com/leaderboard/todos-los-lideres?stat_competition=laliga-easports\\&stat=total_goals_ranking). Se resolverá como **No** si cualquier otro jugador tiene más goles.", "fine_print": "	•\tSi la página web oficial de LaLiga no está disponible, se utilizará una fuente alternativa fiable.\n\n	•\tEsta pregunta se resolverá igualmente como **Sí** si Mbappé está empatado en el primer puesto.", "post_id": 35266, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748034013.314166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 259, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748034013.314166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 259, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.7594809277910719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.06451970401079653, 0.4881964318502168, 0.0, 0.00958118693807439, 0.0, 0.002372997587178298, 0.0, 0.008397943366378462, 0.018125582046684033, 0.0, 0.5685138401761083, 0.0, 0.28013867646389146, 0.22217143984245982, 0.2943329189486736, 0.6155385587691509, 1.6794528219318023e-05, 0.15499851573107168, 0.14542058492547988, 0.08970634032901267, 0.6375988748984656, 0.049703383431530586, 0.23117443548180058, 0.0, 0.2679019654457968, 1.0578214643720876, 0.2134437880956631, 0.4805634811663014, 0.2948451667043397, 0.0, 0.5585380997029644, 2.786032975763727e-07, 0.21038174180002348, 0.026389923768778193, 0.002041680567197402, 0.6798628221774653, 0.022889335015776762, 0.04986073254192941, 0.003341457858114797, 0.005349798147469943, 0.21002844460263115, 0.003678748844760006, 0.00029938924069437286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048036212340750846, 0.00020805588560307228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013881417517250117, 0.23008303434138605, 0.0017181732975541254, 0.020508387632822016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2197617724684291, 0.018926495479444014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006631478759239737, 0.2650972585804847, 0.0071112829903169665, 6.328981002634307e-06, 0.00026935803844470925, 0.00593027071473204, 0.017462649136148166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008777999819317832, 0.0, 0.011396571071487605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.035926805039111e-05, 0.012983607863256126, 0.00011239659220433349, 4.873744478987215e-05, 1.521122464080353e-05, 0.0, 0.11372843993543624, 0.0, 0.0, 9.728922265083948e-05, 0.0, 0.00012067505416524075, 0.5662660487626252, 0.0, 0.0022575459027606073, 0.0, 1.866362932330237, 0.5305441475202485, 0.40869227668576885, 4.2157700768496827e-07, 0.4659079378315071, 4.11658130438521, 1.8248541262350253, 0.0, 1.1993914385967748, 10.765615975514995 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -86.38865592827278, "peer_score": 9.313970363785076, "coverage": 0.9981611798766115, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9981611798766115, "spot_peer_score": 1.9149044010033796, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -86.38865592827278, "peer_archived_score": 9.313970363785076, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9149044010033796, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 481, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "El Trofeo Pichichi se otorga al máximo goleador de LaLiga cada temporada. A febrero de 2025, la lucha por el Trofeo Pichichi en la temporada 2024/25 de LaLiga es particularmente competitiva. El delantero del FC Barcelona Robert Lewandowski lidera la tabla de goleadores con 20 goles, seguido de cerca por Kylian Mbappé del Real Madrid, que ha anotado 17 veces. Otros contendientes destacados incluyen a Raphinha (Barcelona) y Ante Budimir (Osasuna), ambos con 13 goles.\n\nEn temporadas recientes, el máximo goleador ha sido Robert Lewandowski con el Barcelona (2023/24), Karim Benzema con el Real Madrid (2021/22 y 2022/23) y Lionel Messi, Barcelona (2019/20 y 2020/21)." }, { "id": 35265, "title": "¿Ganará el Atlético de Madrid la EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?", "short_title": "¿Atlético campeón de LaLiga 2024/25?", "url_title": "¿Atlético campeón de LaLiga 2024/25?", "slug": "atletico-campeon-de-laliga-202425", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:44:02.557552Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:34:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.825758Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:34:51Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-26T10:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 266, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34749, "title": "¿Ganará el Atlético de Madrid la EA Sports LaLiga 2024/25?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:44:02.557986Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-26T10:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-26T10:36:12.371677Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "LaLiga es la división principal del fútbol español y está considerada como una de las mejores competiciones a nivel mundial. Mientras que el FC Barcelona y el Real Madrid compiten constantemente por el título, el Atlético de Madrid está bien posicionado a febrero de 2025. El equipo, bajo la dirección del entrenador de larga trayectoria Diego Simeone, ha demostrado una gran forma a lo largo de la temporada, manteniendo una batalla cerrada en la parte alta de la tabla. A febrero de 2025, el Atlético de Madrid se encuentra [<u>entre los tres primeros de LaLiga</u>](https://as.com/resultados/futbol/primera/clasificacion/), junto con el Real Madrid y el Barcelona. También están compitiendo en la Copa del Rey y en la UEFA Champions League, lo que puede suponer un desafío adicional. Ganar LaLiga marcaría el primer título doméstico del Atlético desde la temporada 2020/21.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el Atlético de Madrid termina la temporada 2024/25 en primer lugar en la tabla de LaLiga. Se resolverá como **No** si no lo hacen. La resolución se basará en la clasificación oficial publicada por LaLiga al final de la temporada.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748021935.252165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 262, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748021935.252165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 262, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.0425738696180717 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.389293338422377, 4.584840510769935, 1.0508042235606398, 0.2329671996193064, 0.41348090297242307, 0.7778552781110112, 0.8242397926659213, 0.7342385551814863, 0.9323548323456847, 0.08865481059565208, 0.2435555231558632, 0.0005388032840142226, 0.21740611350676667, 0.09787701737882892, 0.004308268113541897, 0.3468316186901613, 0.4199767800141204, 9.368831936180171e-05, 0.0014560603654234126, 0.022715931938083557, 0.3107055501450019, 8.738596316235714e-07, 0.0, 8.617214393427791e-06, 6.901105352030574e-07, 0.34997116190775723, 0.003974896323836773, 0.04461356913126322, 0.0033626181168912067, 0.0, 0.018106844061313777, 3.1818516384490214e-05, 0.00559202358605434, 0.012297126297671695, 0.0, 0.0005951731671972084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08727537132274264, 0.09050363130641977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007523560036691747, 0.0007567980958844826, 0.0, 0.0, 5.099265459078445e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015846296307009206, 4.81390886110318e-05, 0.0017877624891444975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053938277532004496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48496722342766363 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.01616552837702, "peer_score": 17.426129112449534, "coverage": 0.9981639259661453, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9981639259661453, "spot_peer_score": 12.742535435920884, "spot_baseline_score": 83.18772411916731, "baseline_archived_score": 90.01616552837702, "peer_archived_score": 17.426129112449534, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.742535435920884, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.18772411916731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 448, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "LaLiga es la división principal del fútbol español y está considerada como una de las mejores competiciones a nivel mundial. Mientras que el FC Barcelona y el Real Madrid compiten constantemente por el título, el Atlético de Madrid está bien posicionado a febrero de 2025. El equipo, bajo la dirección del entrenador de larga trayectoria Diego Simeone, ha demostrado una gran forma a lo largo de la temporada, manteniendo una batalla cerrada en la parte alta de la tabla. A febrero de 2025, el Atlético de Madrid se encuentra [<u>entre los tres primeros de LaLiga</u>](https://as.com/resultados/futbol/primera/clasificacion/), junto con el Real Madrid y el Barcelona. También están compitiendo en la Copa del Rey y en la UEFA Champions League, lo que puede suponer un desafío adicional. Ganar LaLiga marcaría el primer título doméstico del Atlético desde la temporada 2020/21." }, { "id": 35264, "title": "¿Ganará el Liverpool la UEFA Champions League 2024/25?", "short_title": "¿Liverpool campeón de la Champions 24/25?", "url_title": "¿Liverpool campeón de la Champions 24/25?", "slug": "liverpool-campeon-de-la-champions-2425", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:39:15.088686Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T12:57:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.816784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T12:57:52Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-11T22:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 304, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34748, "title": "¿Ganará el Liverpool la UEFA Champions League 2024/25?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:39:15.089083Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-11T22:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-12T00:28:12.071874Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "La UEFA Champions League, anteriormente conocida como Copa de Europa, es la competición de fútbol de clubes más prestigiosa de Europa. El Liverpool tiene una rica historia en el torneo, habiéndolo ganado seis veces (1977, 1978, 1981, 1984, 2005 y 2019). La edición 2024/25 presenta un nuevo formato con 36 equipos en una fase de liga, seguida de rondas eliminatorias. La final se jugará el 31 de mayo de 2025 en el Allianz Arena de Múnich.\n\nA febrero de 2025, el Liverpool es considerado uno de los favoritos para el título. Bajo el liderazgo del nuevo entrenador Arne Slot, el equipo ha tenido un [<u>rendimiento excepcional en la fase de liga</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liga_de_Campeones_de_la_UEFA_2024-25#Fase_de_Liga), terminando en lo más alto de la tabla con 21 puntos (7 victorias y 1 derrota), marcando 17 goles y encajando solo 5. Esto les aseguró la clasificación directa para los octavos de final, evitando la ronda de playoff requerida para los equipos peor clasificados. Otros principales contendientes incluyen al Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Bayern Múnich y Paris Saint-Germain, todos los cuales también han avanzado desde la fase de liga y los playoffs de la fase eliminatoria.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si el Liverpool gana la final de la Champions League 2024-2025. Se resolverá como **No** si no ganan. La resolución se basará en el resultado oficial publicado por la UEFA.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741733524.371741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741733524.371741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 303, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.16397158022262398 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.4203486731708095, 0.7444277970929636, 1.2593856184617365, 0.4666793228647305, 0.06016952469422246, 1.3067941798363283, 0.07187624858969492, 0.40420197602146163, 0.7658776290033602, 0.056898434293024144, 1.9889803874961516, 1.3863800092599168, 0.2385480666240065, 1.7750496569505176, 0.3392236507376681, 1.9194760920722937, 2.376333263396374, 0.32756341846542036, 1.643483507626181, 0.4303109902233876, 1.1912421754225293, 0.03735474713870982, 2.0701666566265815, 0.0026911951443596587, 0.37801994201303235, 1.7829550992573997, 0.11373692630184225, 0.0059838598577089935, 0.40072788098732876, 0.0, 0.017039914528208782, 0.5743044404676625, 0.003064272341025771, 0.3687982957499493, 1.6638838143825552e-05, 0.277913132845656, 0.0007400031179391562, 0.2449024807258415, 8.743302928697153e-05, 9.300504854137839e-05, 8.215562976413503e-05, 0.0, 0.0003633797217476514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02575392849331612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005773737151979949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12125777290929587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2773764447939043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38875049103580406, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0364344610324519e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003955876443114921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10288440164882456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9433354909374169 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.254727939916238, "peer_score": 1.4509653047059101, "coverage": 0.13408558286277122, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9874918752680851, "spot_peer_score": 13.163213766242942, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 10.254727939916238, "peer_archived_score": 1.4509653047059101, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.163213766242942, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 454, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "La UEFA Champions League, anteriormente conocida como Copa de Europa, es la competición de fútbol de clubes más prestigiosa de Europa. El Liverpool tiene una rica historia en el torneo, habiéndolo ganado seis veces (1977, 1978, 1981, 1984, 2005 y 2019). La edición 2024/25 presenta un nuevo formato con 36 equipos en una fase de liga, seguida de rondas eliminatorias. La final se jugará el 31 de mayo de 2025 en el Allianz Arena de Múnich.\n\nA febrero de 2025, el Liverpool es considerado uno de los favoritos para el título. Bajo el liderazgo del nuevo entrenador Arne Slot, el equipo ha tenido un [<u>rendimiento excepcional en la fase de liga</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liga_de_Campeones_de_la_UEFA_2024-25#Fase_de_Liga), terminando en lo más alto de la tabla con 21 puntos (7 victorias y 1 derrota), marcando 17 goles y encajando solo 5. Esto les aseguró la clasificación directa para los octavos de final, evitando la ronda de playoff requerida para los equipos peor clasificados. Otros principales contendientes incluyen al Real Madrid, FC Barcelona, Bayern Múnich y Paris Saint-Germain, todos los cuales también han avanzado desde la fase de liga y los playoffs de la fase eliminatoria." } ] }
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