Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1040
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1020", "results": [ { "id": 35263, "title": "¿Superará Vox el 27% de intención de voto entre los jóvenes en España a finales de 2025?", "short_title": "¿Vox >27% voto joven 2025?", "url_title": "¿Vox >27% voto joven 2025?", "slug": "vox-27-voto-joven-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:21:35.190563Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:31:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T08:01:34.745833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:31:49Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-27T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 316, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34747, "title": "¿Superará Vox el 27% de intención de voto entre los jóvenes en España a finales de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:21:35.191003Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:57:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vox es un partido político fundado en 2013 en España, clasificado por politólogos y medios de comunicación como un partido de extrema derecha o populista de derecha. En los últimos años, su apoyo entre los votantes jóvenes ha atraído una atención significativa. Según [<u>recientes encuestas de 40dB.</u>](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) publicadas por El País, Vox recibe un 27% de apoyo entre los votantes de 18 a 24 años, su porcentaje más alto en todos los grupos de edad. Esto es notablemente superior a su apoyo entre los grupos demográficos de mayor edad, que oscila entre el 10 y el 19%.\n\nEste patrón de mayor apoyo juvenil a los partidos de extrema derecha [<u>no es exclusivo de España</u>](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), ya que el RN de Marine Le Pen en Francia y AfD en Alemania también han experimentado un aumento del apoyo juvenil en los últimos años.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si, según la última encuesta de 2025 realizada por la empresa 40dB., la intención directa de voto para Vox entre los jóvenes de 18 a 24 años es superior al 27%. Se resolverá como **No** si es del 27% o menos.", "fine_print": "	•\tLa encuesta relevante probablemente será publicada por [<u>El País</u>](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n\n	•\tLa intención de voto se refiere específicamente al grupo de edad de 18-24 años y a los datos de intención directa de voto, tal como se presentan en la encuesta de 40dB. Puedes consultar [<u>este ejemplo</u>](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). Si esa franja no está disponible, se usará otra cercana para representar el voto de los jóvenes.\n\n	•\tSi la última encuesta de 2025 de 40dB se publica antes del 1 de octubre de 2025, esta pregunta será **anulada**.", "post_id": 35263, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757836884.101405, "end_time": 1758485593.594, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757836884.101405, "end_time": 1758485593.594, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6333019471214432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.14604196117695384, 0.03226982664943769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0775933119432191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039753439271563294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03585734392959071, 0.17890252631202977, 0.004176477489548196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001218877601747685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.16538435590012215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016749238171012292, 0.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.020621981324100598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008974467691096315, 0.12456931782903928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012495570994977083, 0.37021048123747125, 0.007000590723138572, 0.8376404056395564, 0.0, 0.010905509822374478, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.08482337249261131, 0.202808467492815, 0.0, 0.0, 4.471725546864284, 0.3177940554177135, 0.0, 0.5181868005089305, 0.5631529774513128, 2.094676393032658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1610108135814183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6796475974225054, 0.0, 1.403953649159376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7306733821474771, 0.0, 0.04397920349508898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.397456673005655 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 588, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Vox es un partido político fundado en 2013 en España, clasificado por politólogos y medios de comunicación como un partido de extrema derecha o populista de derecha. En los últimos años, su apoyo entre los votantes jóvenes ha atraído una atención significativa. Según [<u>recientes encuestas de 40dB.</u>](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) publicadas por El País, Vox recibe un 27% de apoyo entre los votantes de 18 a 24 años, su porcentaje más alto en todos los grupos de edad. Esto es notablemente superior a su apoyo entre los grupos demográficos de mayor edad, que oscila entre el 10 y el 19%.\n\nEste patrón de mayor apoyo juvenil a los partidos de extrema derecha [<u>no es exclusivo de España</u>](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), ya que el RN de Marine Le Pen en Francia y AfD en Alemania también han experimentado un aumento del apoyo juvenil en los últimos años." }, { "id": 35262, "title": "¿Terminará el PSOE el 2025 por delante del PP en el promedio de las encuestas?", "short_title": "¿PSOE delante del PP en encuestas al final de 2025?", "url_title": "¿PSOE delante del PP en encuestas al final de 2025?", "slug": "psoe-delante-del-pp-en-encuestas-al-final-de-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:14:38.463757Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T13:29:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T08:01:49.922367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T13:29:38Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 336, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34746, "title": "Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T13:14:38.464125Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the graph of the average of polls for the General Elections in Spain, maintained by [ <u>Politico Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PSOE is ahead of the PP in the average voting intention for December 31, 2025. It will be resolved as **No** if the PP is ahead of the PSOE or if they are tied.", "fine_print": "• Any changes to Politico’s methodology will not affect the resolution of the question.\n\n • If Politico has not published a value for December 31, 2025 by January 7, 2025, this question will be resolved based on the most recent value for 2025, as long as it is after November 30, 2025. If no such value is published by December 31, 2025, this question will be **void**.", "post_id": 35262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757836899.593376, "end_time": 1758351778.453, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757836899.593376, "end_time": 1758351778.453, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.11982886975565225 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2550649970664935, 0.33129795027311904, 1.7111544124181475, 1.1987600967711867, 0.7990649070798941, 1.4797461199462032, 1.189044727823745, 3.573333067637677, 1.1592656196566338, 0.34902821615157653, 0.5589157582499854, 0.007599064747706633, 0.29766763535129814, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.004147367952591529, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.008707034755549023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023916025099906184, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019319732351326508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037286313441487653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39289610480723736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06452395506976416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6550631564461379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39241044281454124 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 637, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called." }, { "id": 35261, "title": "¿Seguirá Pedro Sánchez siendo presidente de España a finales de 2025?", "short_title": "¿Sánchez presidente a finales de 2025?", "url_title": "¿Sánchez presidente a finales de 2025?", "slug": "sanchez-presidente-a-finales-de-2025", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-17T12:23:37.402849Z", "published_at": "2025-02-27T12:57:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:46:48.822040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-27T12:57:46Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 501, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3625, "name": "Torneo Kiko Llaneras 🔮", "type": "community", "slug": "kiko", "description": "Kiko Llaneras se especializa en analizar, explicar y predecir eventos diversos, desde elecciones a mundiales de fútbol. Tiene un doctorado en Ingeniería y lidera el equipo de datos y visualización en el diario El País.\r\n\r\nAutor del libro: ['Think Clearly: Eight Simple Rules to Succeed in the Data Age'](https://kiko.llaneras.es/en/piensa-claro). \r\n\r\nPuedes leer más sobre Kiko en [su página web](http://kiko.llaneras.es).\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### \\$5.000 en Premios\r\n\r\nAunque te animamos a seguir actualizando tus predicciones para contribuir a una mayor visión en 2025, **solo las actualizaciones hechas antes del 13 de marzo de 2025, 11:59 PM PT se contabilizarán para las clasificaciones del torneo**. Cuando todas las preguntas se resuelvan, **repartiremos los \\$5.000 entre los pronosticadores más exactos**. La serie finalizará el 7 de enero de 2026, y **los premios se distribuirán después de esa fecha**.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n### Más sobre Metaculus\r\n\r\n¿Quieres saber más sobre predicciones y su utilidad? [→](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/28701/why-forecasting-an-introduction-for-first-timers/)\r\n\r\nPara entender cómo funciona la plataforma, consulta el FAQ [→](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/)\r\n\r\n**Otros torneos de Metaculus**\r\n\r\n¿Te interesa participar en más torneos de predicción?\r\n\r\n* **Bridgewater Associates —** Regístrate para hacer predicciones, explorar oportunidades profesionales y competir por \\$25.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)\r\n* **AI Forecasting Benchmark Series** — Una comparativa del state-of-the-art en predicción IA con los mejores pronosticadores humanos. Construye un bot y compite por \\$30.000: [→](https://www.metaculus.com/aib/)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\nLa siguiente tabla de clasificación es solo para fines informativos. Realiza un seguimiento de todos los pronósticos realizados en el torneo y su precisión. Sin embargo, solo los pronósticos que se hayan realizado antes del 13 de marzo a las 12:59 PM PT determinarán los ganadores reales y los pagos de premios.", "order": 1, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_9.54.15PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/053aa174f3e23c72d0553477c85b9ca1_400x400.jpeg", "followers_count": 239, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": null } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34745, "title": "¿Seguirá Pedro Sánchez siendo presidente de España a finales de 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-17T12:23:37.403270Z", "open_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-27T12:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-14T07:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pedro Sánchez es el líder del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) y ha estado ejerciendo como Presidente del Gobierno de España desde junio de 2018. Sánchez ha gestionado un [<u>gobierno de coalición desde 2020</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Segundo_gobierno_de_Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez), con una [<u>configuración diferente tras las elecciones de 2023</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tercer_gobierno_de_Pedro_S%C3%A1nchez). En la actualidad, no hay elecciones generales programadas antes de finales de 2025. Para que Sánchez sea destituido, tendría que dimitir o enfrentarse a una [<u>moción de censura</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moci%C3%B3n_de_censura_\\(Espa%C3%B1a\\)), un proceso exigente en el sistema político español, ya que requiere una mayoría alternativa.", "resolution_criteria": "La pregunta se resolverá como **Sí** si Pedro Sánchez ocupa el cargo de Presidente del Gobierno de España al final del día 31 de diciembre de 2025. Se resolverá como **No** si no ocupa ese cargo en ese momento. La confirmación se basará en fuentes oficiales.", "fine_print": "* La pregunta no considera si Sánchez ha anunciado su futura dimisión, solo si ocupa oficialmente el cargo al final del día 31 de diciembre de 2025.\n\n	•\tSi Sánchez no ocupa el cargo, pero es el Presidente en funciones al final del día 31 de diciembre de 2025, esta pregunta se resolverá igualmente como **No**.", "post_id": 35261, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757728838.675, "end_time": 1758246659.307, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757728838.675, "end_time": 1758246659.307, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9543145502348411 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06826140917396885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02502385235281025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0922898227035347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8018133090773757, 0.0, 0.32773118405064317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3319092663269885, 0.10966804053788785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16256421897928386, 0.22414538083570054, 0.0, 0.05392541496491342, 0.0, 0.399714701846239, 1.834943472712952, 1.1290702118318665, 2.3842811143720533, 1.9814205376465834, 6.907932884436227 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 63, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 998, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pedro Sánchez es el líder del Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) y ha estado ejerciendo como Presidente del Gobierno de España desde junio de 2018. 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Para que Sánchez sea destituido, tendría que dimitir o enfrentarse a una [<u>moción de censura</u>](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moci%C3%B3n_de_censura_\\(Espa%C3%B1a\\)), un proceso exigente en el sistema político español, ya que requiere una mayoría alternativa." }, { "id": 35245, "title": "Will the state of Rhode Island have any recreational marijuana dispensaries on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-state-of-rhode-island-have-any-recreational-marijuana-dispensaries-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T05:10:33.818896Z", "published_at": "2025-02-19T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.273764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-19T18:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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purposes [in 2022](https://governor.ri.gov/press-releases/governor-mckee-signs-legislation-legalizing-and-safely-regulating-recreational)." }, { "id": 35242, "title": "Will Nikola Corporation file for bankruptcy before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nikola-corporation-file-for-bankruptcy-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T05:08:36.767397Z", "published_at": "2025-02-19T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.208519Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T02:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-20T02:41:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-19T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 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April 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs targeting the EU take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**.\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. 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Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 35240, "title": "Will Julian Assange receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-julian-assange-receive-a-pardon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T05:08:36.722225Z", "published_at": "2025-02-18T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.060633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34728, "title": "Will Julian Assange receive a pardon before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T05:08:36.722225Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:53:17.278970Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Telegraph: [Trump to consider pardon for Assange if he wins election](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/05/29/trump-to-consider-pardon-for-assange-if-he-wins-election/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, Julian Assange is publicly reported to have received a presidential pardon from Donald J. 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According to Noodles in its recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1275158/000127515824000098/ndls-20241001.htm), \"In the third quarter we saw a decline in system-wide comparable restaurant sales, and correspondingly in total revenue. System-wide comparable restaurant sales decreased 3.3% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period of 2023, comprised of a 3.4% decrease at company-owned restaurants and a 2.9% decrease at franchise-owned restaurants.\"" }, { "id": 35201, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Perplexity announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "Perplexity IPO?", "url_title": "Perplexity IPO?", "slug": "perplexity-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:04.004893Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.920385Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34689, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Perplexity announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:04.004893Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:32:22.588846Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-21T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Observer: [A.I. Unicorns Have Good Reasons Not to Go Public](https://observer.com/2024/10/ai-unicorn-not-going-public/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Perplexity AI, Inc., announces before April 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) The company filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://www.perplexity.ai/hub) section of its website. If there is no such announcement before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 35201, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740134955.006439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1225 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.234 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740134955.006439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1225 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.234 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18708771399797006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2888215375454948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.35033622771640044, 0.712548633851336, 0.0, 0.0, 1.281408452949476, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3842569464637466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.7043926150625847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.04537808071775, "peer_score": -0.7592756263745724, "coverage": 0.9928123546971214, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9928123546971214, "spot_peer_score": -3.909971234556016, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 73.04537808071775, "peer_archived_score": -0.7592756263745724, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.909971234556016, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Observer: [A.I. Unicorns Have Good Reasons Not to Go Public](https://observer.com/2024/10/ai-unicorn-not-going-public/)" }, { "id": 35200, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-trump-administration-impose-new-tariffs-on-the-eu-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.838232Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.143900Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34688, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.838232Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T18:51:22.182399Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs targeting the EU take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**.\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. If they come into effect, are paused, and then resume, the total number of days will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 35200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740070376.711115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740070376.711115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6744495483288142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.830015536754299, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8654569723930818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5870740446299216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0664967849497513, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07459302578187124, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 50.69257449649289, "peer_score": -3.160127497504915, "coverage": 0.9928466069698334, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9928466069698334, "spot_peer_score": -3.6969331277289097, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756148, "baseline_archived_score": 50.69257449649289, "peer_archived_score": -3.160127497504915, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.6969331277289097, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756148 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 35199, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Stripe announce that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "By Apr 1, 2025, Stripe announce planning an IPO?", "url_title": "By Apr 1, 2025, Stripe announce planning an IPO?", "slug": "by-apr-1-2025-stripe-announce-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.803750Z", "published_at": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.375998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34687, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will Stripe announce that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2025-02-15T04:48:03.803750Z", "open_time": "2025-02-20T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T17:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-02T17:31:13.551136Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "PaymentsDive: [Stripe shows signs of IPO, despite co-founder comments](https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/stripe-shows-signs-of-ipo-despite-co-founder-comments/727877/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe, Inc., announces before April 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. In order to streamline the resolution of this question, there are two resolution sources for the IPO announcement: 1) Stripe filing an [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) or [F-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-f-1.asp) or 2) An announcement at the [News](https://stripe.com/newsroom) section of its website. 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