Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1060
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If finalized, it would mark Korea’s first defense arms sale to the country.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the governments of Vietnam and/or South Korea announce an agreement for South Korea to export 2 or more self-propelled howitzers to Vietnam. If no such agreement is announced after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746112681.158833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.619 ], "centers": [ 0.711 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746112681.158833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.619 ], "centers": [ 0.711 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28900000000000003, 0.711 ], "means": [ 0.6993264249395392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18214514839267099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3438845244523275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5908396164006844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18497377642101376, 0.0, 0.10642834088513557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13987734136644542, 0.14546164288094451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1246610110958938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6550631564461379, 0.9989742336661124, 0.22643861771824655, 0.0, 0.8965986140594213, 0.0, 1.7833745909021292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.465828539001803, 0.7408711152380609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6928354232647891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7274548087923369, 0.9425827161078613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.492990000899772, 0.32084018499459366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5039554669535018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01212304064618212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -73.53155489268732, "peer_score": 2.2826757407620795, "coverage": 0.9845433867971103, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9845433867971103, "spot_peer_score": -0.06612500272376204, "spot_baseline_score": -79.0858602161408, "baseline_archived_score": -73.53155489268732, "peer_archived_score": 2.2826757407620795, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.06612500272376204, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -79.0858602161408 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Korea Herald: [South Korea-Vietnam ties enter new strategic terrain, but need more detailed road map: Seoul envoy](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10464718) \"Vietnam is reportedly in negotiations to import 20 units of K9 self-propelled howitzers from Korea in a deal valued at $300 million. If finalized, it would mark Korea’s first defense arms sale to the country.\"" }, { "id": 37250, "title": "Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia return to the United States before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kilmar-abrego-garcia-return-to-the-united-states-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:11.924161Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.749333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-20T09:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI 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"2025-07-09T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:56:57.873572Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 36628, "title": "Will Kilmar Abrego Garcia return to the United States before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:11.924161Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-20T09:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-20T09:49:08.343598Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Kilmar_Abrego_Garcia)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kilmar Abrego Garcia after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025 enters territory of the United States according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Subsequently leaving the United States, such as a deportation, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [Deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deportation_of_Kilmar_Abrego_Garcia)" }, { "id": 37249, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Reform UK be the highest polling party in the UK by at least 4 points, according to Politico?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-reform-uk-be-the-highest-polling-party-in-the-uk-by-at-least-4-points-according-to-politico", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:11.722246Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.699580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T21:58:45.758741Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Hill: [Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is upending British politics](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5163853-how-nigel-farages-reform-uk-is-upending-british-politics/) | Wikipedia: [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Reform UK reaches #1 in the polling averages, exceeding the 2nd place by 4 or more percentage points [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after April 30, 2025 and before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746091824.440303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746091824.440303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24755052601803604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5451197344970368, 0.17175714249032537, 0.0, 0.6177039404822752, 0.0, 1.6280008074893915, 0.0, 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Are We in One?](https://www.nytimes.com/article/bear-market-stocks-tariffs.html)" }, { "id": 37225, "title": "Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Surinamese general election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-progressive-reform-party-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2025-surinamese-general-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:09.640123Z", "published_at": "2025-04-28T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.517843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 74, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-26T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-26T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-28T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32721, 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"comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T15:00:48.391401Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" 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"question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T07:52:32.099593Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36535, "title": "Will the US Dollar Index (DXY) drop below an average of 88 for any 90-day period before the 2029 presidential inauguration?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T03:17:13.343783Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [US Dollar Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index) ticker symbol DXY and nicknamed the Dixie, is a weighted geometric mean of the US dollar (USD) compared with the following six currencies according to the Intercontinental Exchange ([pdf](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/ICE_USDX_Brochure.pdf)) which maintains the index: \n\n* Euro 57.6%\n* Japanese Yen 13.6%\n* British Pound 11.9%\n* Canadian Dollar 9.1%\n* Swedish Krona 4.2%\n* Swiss Franc 3.6%\n\nThe index began in 1973 and included a basket of European currencies that got consolidated into the Euro in 1999. The DXY's starting value in 1973 was 100, and subsequent changes in its value reflect its changes relative to that baseline. [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp):\n\n> An index value of 120 suggests that the U.S. dollar has appreciated 20% versus the basket of currencies over a particular time period. Simply put, if the USDX goes up, that means the U.S. dollar is getting stronger in value compared to the other currencies.\n\n> Similarly, an index value of 80, indicating a fall of 20 from its initial value, implies a 20% depreciation in strength relative to the other currencies. The appreciation and depreciation results are a factor of the time period in question.\n\nOver history, the DXY has fluctuated as follows, ranging from an all-time high of almost 165 in 1984 and an all time low of nearly 70 in 2007:\n\n\n\nIn April 2025, in the days following President Donald Trump's [Rose Garden announcement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) of potential high tariffs and trade wars, the USD [fell](https://www.morningstar.com/markets/dollar-hits-3-year-low-against-euro-tariff-turmoil) against other major currencies, hitting a 10-year low against the Swiss franc and a 3-year low against the Euro. This fall was a surprise to many observers, with the tariffs [having been expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/trumps-tariffs-were-expected-to-boost-the-dollar-but-theyre-not.html) to boost the dollar. \n\nAccording to an analysis by [BNP Parabas](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-Trump-drive-down-dollar-1/21/2025,51217): \n\n> Donald Trump’s position on the greenback is somewhat ambivalent and contradictory, straddled between maintaining its dominance and wanting to see it depreciate to boost the competitiveness of US exports. The upward impact on the dollar of the tariff increases that he plans to implement is a good example of the internal contradictions of his economic agenda.\n\nAnother of uncertainty is the fate of Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-would-be-biggest-casualty-if-trump-fires-fed-chair-mcgeever-2025-04-21/):\n\n> If U.S. President Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar, threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a sure-fire way of getting it. But rarely in markets, economics and policymaking has the phrase \"be careful what you wish for\" ever been more apt.\n\n> Trump's frustration with Powell for not lowering interest rates goes back to his first term in the White House, but his latest verbal attacks mark an escalation that could quickly turn a dollar slump into a potentially catastrophic rout.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at any point after the launch of this question and before January 20, 2029, the value of the US Dollar Index (DXY) averaged over any 90-day period is is less than 88.00, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/history/).  ", "fine_print": "The 90-day period refers to calendar days rather than trading days and will be the arithmetic mean of the daily Close prices for DXY. For example, at the time of this question, the 90-day period January 25, 2025 through April 25, 2025 encompassed 63 trading days presented by Yahoo Finance and had an average daily Close value of 104.51.\n\nShould the resolution source be at a different location, fail to exist at the time of resolution, or have clearly erroneous data, Metaculus may choose another appropriate resolution source.\n\nThe question may, at Metaculus' discretion, resolve as **No** before January 20, 2029 if it becomes mathematically impossible for the 90-day average through January 20, 2029 to be less than 88.00.", "post_id": 37157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762427849.741919, "end_time": 1763072662.147, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762427849.741919, "end_time": 1763072662.147, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.46750192463669515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3659631784219523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9676365865346985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008246561353721116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77659397126568, 0.26909855341785494, 0.0, 0.0017751730710432278, 0.0, 0.4565892057929601, 0.0, 0.25364764538129814, 0.010033693009389048, 0.0, 0.23173975071642164, 0.12041475265408497, 0.0, 0.583112405867151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8592606188005868, 0.21187734778929587, 1.991494954356117, 1.4700976627352433, 0.1147020106534678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14027428232286498, 0.22507195943126188, 0.5965209649334806, 0.03354609775351218, 0.0, 0.4824833169448146, 1.1742223651486696, 0.0, 0.0011160507165339513, 0.00745418629536983, 0.7177727306294104, 0.0, 0.9231006224690909, 0.0, 0.5919456382250862, 0.8255373500583546, 0.04551310199086637, 0.0, 0.5338301094328937, 0.0, 0.10909802841920627, 0.5055455702705955, 0.06864931765288898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049014995944548286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3063177549848626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1124957952088286, 0.47588748297608136, 0.19397018005681174, 0.0, 0.013290133035904001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08106343468433116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19423410297487204 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [US Dollar Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index) ticker symbol DXY and nicknamed the Dixie, is a weighted geometric mean of the US dollar (USD) compared with the following six currencies according to the Intercontinental Exchange ([pdf](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/ICE_USDX_Brochure.pdf)) which maintains the index: \n\n* Euro 57.6%\n* Japanese Yen 13.6%\n* British Pound 11.9%\n* Canadian Dollar 9.1%\n* Swedish Krona 4.2%\n* Swiss Franc 3.6%\n\nThe index began in 1973 and included a basket of European currencies that got consolidated into the Euro in 1999. The DXY's starting value in 1973 was 100, and subsequent changes in its value reflect its changes relative to that baseline. [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp):\n\n> An index value of 120 suggests that the U.S. dollar has appreciated 20% versus the basket of currencies over a particular time period. Simply put, if the USDX goes up, that means the U.S. dollar is getting stronger in value compared to the other currencies.\n\n> Similarly, an index value of 80, indicating a fall of 20 from its initial value, implies a 20% depreciation in strength relative to the other currencies. The appreciation and depreciation results are a factor of the time period in question.\n\nOver history, the DXY has fluctuated as follows, ranging from an all-time high of almost 165 in 1984 and an all time low of nearly 70 in 2007:\n\n\n\nIn April 2025, in the days following President Donald Trump's [Rose Garden announcement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) of potential high tariffs and trade wars, the USD [fell](https://www.morningstar.com/markets/dollar-hits-3-year-low-against-euro-tariff-turmoil) against other major currencies, hitting a 10-year low against the Swiss franc and a 3-year low against the Euro. This fall was a surprise to many observers, with the tariffs [having been expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/trumps-tariffs-were-expected-to-boost-the-dollar-but-theyre-not.html) to boost the dollar. \n\nAccording to an analysis by [BNP Parabas](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-Trump-drive-down-dollar-1/21/2025,51217): \n\n> Donald Trump’s position on the greenback is somewhat ambivalent and contradictory, straddled between maintaining its dominance and wanting to see it depreciate to boost the competitiveness of US exports. The upward impact on the dollar of the tariff increases that he plans to implement is a good example of the internal contradictions of his economic agenda.\n\nAnother of uncertainty is the fate of Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-would-be-biggest-casualty-if-trump-fires-fed-chair-mcgeever-2025-04-21/):\n\n> If U.S. President Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar, threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a sure-fire way of getting it. But rarely in markets, economics and policymaking has the phrase \"be careful what you wish for\" ever been more apt.\n\n> Trump's frustration with Powell for not lowering interest rates goes back to his first term in the White House, but his latest verbal attacks mark an escalation that could quickly turn a dollar slump into a potentially catastrophic rout." }, { "id": 37154, "title": "Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?", "short_title": "BP Outperform Shell June/July 2025?", "url_title": "BP Outperform Shell June/July 2025?", "slug": "bp-outperform-shell-junejuly-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T19:52:15.981264Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.507507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-16T16:44:01.441250Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T12:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36532, "title": "Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T19:52:15.981625Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T12:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-01T12:27:17.413127Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BP plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP) and [Shell plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_plc) are two British multinational oil and gas companies, ranked among the industry's \"[super majors](https://www.financial-dictionary.info/terms/big-oil-super-majors/)\" alongside ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. \n\nHistorically, BP and Shell’s stock prices have moved closely together. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, BP’s share price has significantly underperformed its peers, including Shell. \n\nA decade earlier, BP was held responsible for the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in over \\$65 billion in fines for gross negligence. In recent years, BP has aggressively pivoted toward renewable energy, loosening its focus on oil and gas output. Shell has also pursued a transition toward greener energy, but managed to maintain stronger financial performance and better share price resilience compared to BP.\n\nIn early 2025, Activist investor Elliot Investment Management announced a 5% stake in BP plc. [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/elliott-pushes-big-cost-cuts-at-bp-to-preserve-its-independence) reported the following:\n\n> Elliott wants BP to reshape its business to be more like other oil majors such as [Shell Plc](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHEL:LN) by cutting spending in areas such as renewable energy, as well as making sizable non-core asset divestments, according to the people. It’s pushing BP to refocus its capital allocation priorities so it can boost shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, the people said.\n\nElliot, managed by Paul Singer, has produced annualised returns of 11% since its inception in 1977.\n\nThe data source can be found under the \"Historical Data\" tab for each stock:\n\n* [BP](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP.L/history/)\n* [Shell](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHEL.L/history/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the share price of BP ([BP.L](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP.L/history/)) outperforms Shell ([SHEL.L](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHEL.L/history/)) from June 2, 2025 through July 31, 2025, according to the Close column of Yahoo! Finance.\n\nTo resolve the question, the relative share price change between June 2, 2025 (initial) and July 31, 2025 (final) will be calculated for both companies:\n\n$$\n\\frac{P_{\\mathrm{BP},\\,\\mathrm{final}} - P_{\\mathrm{BP},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}{P_{\\mathrm{BP},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}, \\quad\n\\frac{P_{\\mathrm{SHELL},\\,\\mathrm{final}} - P_{\\mathrm{SHELL},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}{P_{\\mathrm{SHELL},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}\n$$", "fine_print": "* In case of any ambiguity, Metaculus may wait for data errors/inaccuracies to be fixed before resolving this question or use alternate credible sources.\n* If there is an exact tie this question will resolve as **No**.\n* If Shell acquires BP, or vice versa, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 37154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750869999.150207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750869999.150207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4151573673391429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6670278745305158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.249169576728295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22182380668616716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19716273052726438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23514560661903083, 0.00011740563879277114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34998127668304724, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.00031914161448901615, 0.8603803805907527, 0.0, 0.10649833314090622, 0.0, 1.2281885907387635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6324130270374978, 0.6178309270591265, 1.0295987036594685, 0.17495057767983982, 0.37196062010033254, 0.0001776558939473092, 2.934889419080306, 0.15497013636350232, 1.0388816372377179, 0.0, 0.0508534247220765, 0.6646576488052791, 0.7546886092422507, 0.058497394149297575, 0.11585662118737149, 0.0, 1.6501010331853716, 0.02410537821862302, 0.017424541749691182, 0.0440833820924566, 0.0, 0.29554190282209014, 0.006410130681544858, 0.12167144772263841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33101098689432684, 0.0011906560386692468, 0.0, 0.7773095241269743, 0.0, 0.0820816179530651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04099844988318125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008666865535587848, 0.011309510633257629, 0.0, 0.14434035876575918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005794210002007736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023581552929626388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.904836286940408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4186753695802296 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.944647875567657, "peer_score": 10.715068955110844, "coverage": 0.9999828183448853, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999828183448853, "spot_peer_score": 29.787754843585283, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": -7.944647875567657, "peer_archived_score": 10.715068955110844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.787754843585283, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 959, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BP plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP) and [Shell plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_plc) are two British multinational oil and gas companies, ranked among the industry's \"[super majors](https://www.financial-dictionary.info/terms/big-oil-super-majors/)\" alongside ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. \n\nHistorically, BP and Shell’s stock prices have moved closely together. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, BP’s share price has significantly underperformed its peers, including Shell. \n\nA decade earlier, BP was held responsible for the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in over \\$65 billion in fines for gross negligence. In recent years, BP has aggressively pivoted toward renewable energy, loosening its focus on oil and gas output. Shell has also pursued a transition toward greener energy, but managed to maintain stronger financial performance and better share price resilience compared to BP.\n\nIn early 2025, Activist investor Elliot Investment Management announced a 5% stake in BP plc. [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/elliott-pushes-big-cost-cuts-at-bp-to-preserve-its-independence) reported the following:\n\n> Elliott wants BP to reshape its business to be more like other oil majors such as [Shell Plc](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHEL:LN) by cutting spending in areas such as renewable energy, as well as making sizable non-core asset divestments, according to the people. It’s pushing BP to refocus its capital allocation priorities so it can boost shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, the people said.\n\nElliot, managed by Paul Singer, has produced annualised returns of 11% since its inception in 1977.\n\nThe data source can be found under the \"Historical Data\" tab for each stock:\n\n* [BP](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP.L/history/)\n* [Shell](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHEL.L/history/)" }, { "id": 37153, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court allow birthright citizenship to be restricted in 2025?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Lets Birthright Citizenship End in 2025?", "url_title": "SCOTUS Lets Birthright Citizenship End in 2025?", "slug": "scotus-lets-birthright-citizenship-end-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T18:10:57.233461Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:21:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.506269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:21:55Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-10T19:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T15:00:48.391401Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T15:00:48.391401Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T15:00:48.476535Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36531, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court allow birthright citizenship to be restricted in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T18:10:57.233852Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-10T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-10T19:52:27.337893Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the executive order [Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/)*,* instructing agencies to [deny automatic citizenship](https://apnews.com/article/what-has-trump-done-trump-executive-orders-f061fbe7f08c08d81509a6af20ef8fc0) to children whose parents are neither US citizens nor lawful permanent residents. Immigrants-rights groups, citing the [Fourteenth Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/revisiting-the-birthright-citizenship-question-and-the-constitution) and the Supreme Court’s 1898 landmark [*United States v. Wong Kim Ark*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Wong_Kim_Ark), sued in several districts, and the order was [quickly blocked](https://apnews.com/article/birthright-citizenship-donald-trump-lawsuit-immigration-9ac27b234c854a68a9b9f8c0d6cd8a1c). After losing in two courts of appeals, the administration asked the Supreme Court for emergency relief, arguing that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” permits limiting birthright citizenship.\n\nOn April 17, 2025, the [Court granted certiorari](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/) and set oral argument for May 15, 2025. The Court's [order](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/041725zr1_4gd5.pdf) also left in place stays by lower courts that halted enforcement of the executive order. A decision is [expected](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/#:~:text=A%20decision%20in%20the%20case%20will%20likely%20follow%20by%20late%20June%20or%20early%20July.) in June or July, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US Supreme Court holds in its 2025 decision pertaining to birthright citizenship that the Fourteenth Amendment does **not** require birthright citizenship for at least some children born in the United States who currently qualify.\n\nThe question will immediately resolve **No** if the Supreme Court issues an opinion that upholds the status quo of birthright citizenship and Metaculus assesses the opinion reflects a final judgment on the merits.", "fine_print": "* If the Supreme Court does not issue a decision pertaining to the merits of the [consolidated cases](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/041725zr1_4gd5.pdf) *Trump v. CASA, Inc*, *Trump v. Washington*, and *Trump v New Jersey* before August 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* For the purposes of this question, if the Court holds that it is permissible to restrict birthright citizenship while preserving birthright citizenship for some categories (e.g., excluding only children of undocumented parents), that still counts as “restricting” birthright citizenship for the purpose of this question.\n* A ruling on procedural issues or tangential topics, such as the permissibility of universal injunctions, is not sufficient on its own. This question is concerned with a ruling issued on the merits of the case. If the Supreme Court denies to hear an appeal related to the merits of birthright citizenship such that Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject that effectively allows birthright citizenship to be restricted, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* Allowing a restriction on birthright citizenship to take effect will only resolve the question as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject, meaning that legal challenges to the restriction have been largely precluded.\n* Metaculus will rely on reporting from credible sources in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits.", "post_id": 37153, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752616753.948777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752616753.948777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.14615676170673536 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.314217056022022, 0.20718940814639827, 1.941868574572518, 0.0017867105110732713, 0.0, 1.7278029750143125, 0.720810465803078, 1.662888887794577, 1.491255895191977, 0.13987200986448312, 0.9173897239853779, 0.8304502211960938, 0.07931557088818018, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.5433510537617372, 0.6251142788234931, 0.02779729940940726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5048640224006964, 0.0, 0.13457997806040276, 0.002841914205169248, 0.0, 0.07774480908994791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04230013294107466, 0.20803623791753972, 0.0, 0.8546205414511105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7656099388164012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14790567107868602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31917163465548737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10473611934045865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38259480977080873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09755108854937428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09079275177630637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19277466612226013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 326, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the executive order [Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/)*,* instructing agencies to [deny automatic citizenship](https://apnews.com/article/what-has-trump-done-trump-executive-orders-f061fbe7f08c08d81509a6af20ef8fc0) to children whose parents are neither US citizens nor lawful permanent residents. Immigrants-rights groups, citing the [Fourteenth Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/revisiting-the-birthright-citizenship-question-and-the-constitution) and the Supreme Court’s 1898 landmark [*United States v. Wong Kim Ark*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Wong_Kim_Ark), sued in several districts, and the order was [quickly blocked](https://apnews.com/article/birthright-citizenship-donald-trump-lawsuit-immigration-9ac27b234c854a68a9b9f8c0d6cd8a1c). After losing in two courts of appeals, the administration asked the Supreme Court for emergency relief, arguing that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” permits limiting birthright citizenship.\n\nOn April 17, 2025, the [Court granted certiorari](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/) and set oral argument for May 15, 2025. The Court's [order](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/041725zr1_4gd5.pdf) also left in place stays by lower courts that halted enforcement of the executive order. A decision is [expected](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/#:~:text=A%20decision%20in%20the%20case%20will%20likely%20follow%20by%20late%20June%20or%20early%20July.) in June or July, 2025." }, { "id": 37152, "title": "Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?", "short_title": "Santos pardon or commutation?", "url_title": "Santos pardon or commutation?", "slug": "santos-pardon-or-commutation", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T17:48:00.251141Z", "published_at": "2025-04-26T08:39:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T11:19:21.168866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-26T08:40:11.447701Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-27T08:39:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36530, "title": "Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T17:48:00.251533Z", "open_time": "2025-04-27T08:39:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-01T08:39:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-01T08:39:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-20T11:19:05.537025Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 25, 2025, former U.S. Representative George Santos was sentenced to 87 months (7 years and 3 months) in federal prison after pleading guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft. 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