Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1080
{ "count": 6302, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1060", "results": [ { "id": 37142, "title": "Will any model achieve a 40%+ performance on Humanity’s Last Exam by September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Humanity's Last Exam 40% Score", "url_title": "Humanity's Last Exam 40% Score", "slug": "humanitys-last-exam-40-score", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T16:10:27.213650Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T16:10:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T15:38:54.434579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-25T16:10:43.068655Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T15:38:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 36520, "title": "Will any model achieve a 40%+ performance on Humanity’s Last Exam by September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T16:10:27.214078Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-30T16:10:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-30T16:10:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-15T15:38:54.403774Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:10:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Humanity's Last Exam is a benchmark designed to test deep understanding and reasoning in AI systems, with current scores well below 40%", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve **YES** if any model achieves 40% or higher on the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard by August 31, 2025. Otherwise, resolve **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755236721.320199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755236721.320199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.31078105610761225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -118.27498578458015, "peer_score": -24.913082375157753, "coverage": 0.999835833938758, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999835833938758, "spot_peer_score": 15.574753153525746, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162712, "baseline_archived_score": -118.27498578458015, "peer_archived_score": -24.913082375157753, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.574753153525746, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162712 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Humanity's Last Exam is a benchmark designed to test deep understanding and reasoning in AI systems, with current scores well below 40%" }, { "id": 37141, "title": "Will OpenAI release o4 or o5-mini/o5-mini-high by September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "OpenAI O4 or O5-mini Release", "url_title": "OpenAI O4 or O5-mini Release", "slug": "openai-o4-or-o5-mini-release", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T16:09:08.570965Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T16:09:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T15:38:39.426745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-25T16:09:21.875512Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T15:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 36519, "title": "Will OpenAI release o4 or o5-mini/o5-mini-high by September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T16:09:08.571369Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-30T16:09:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-30T16:09:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T15:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-15T15:38:39.384866Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has historically released increasingly capable models (e.g., GPT-4, GPT-4o). Speculation is high regarding next generation releases.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve **YES** if OpenAI publicly announces or releases a model explicitly titled \"O4,\" \"O5-mini,\" or \"O5-mini-high\" tot he public before or on August 31, 2025. A reasonable member of the public must be able to access said model (including subscription services. Otherwise, **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37141, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754690498.324123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754690498.324123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4397684197516321 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -124.06165772987302, "peer_score": -11.116722719107516, "coverage": 0.9998935232895299, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998935232895299, "spot_peer_score": -9.192635610725954, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311397, "baseline_archived_score": -124.06165772987302, "peer_archived_score": -11.116722719107516, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.192635610725954, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311397 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has historically released increasingly capable models (e.g., GPT-4, GPT-4o). Speculation is high regarding next generation releases." }, { "id": 37138, "title": "Will the record for the warmest day on record for the entire planet be broken by September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Warmest Day", "url_title": "Warmest Day", "slug": "warmest-day", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T15:43:23.184260Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T15:43:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T15:37:35.378192Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-25T15:44:55.520645Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T15:37:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 27, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 36516, "title": "Will the record for the warmest day on record for the entire planet be broken by September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T15:43:23.184713Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-30T15:43:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-30T15:43:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T15:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-15T15:37:35.324234Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The warmest global average temperature on record was set on July 22, 2024, at 17.16°C (62.89°F). Global temperatures have been trending upwards due to strong El Niño conditions and long-term climate change.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve **YES** if by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2025, a daily global average surface air temperature greater than 17.16°C is officially recorded by authoritative sources (e.g., Berkeley Earth, NOAA, ECMWF). Otherwise, resolve **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745820316.063972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745820316.063972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.37622139699424006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898182977216933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 16.10854440711115, "peer_score": -20.276488201011347, "coverage": 0.9996388248021107, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996388248021107, "spot_peer_score": -21.44375488660006, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 16.10854440711115, "peer_archived_score": -20.276488201011347, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.44375488660006, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The warmest global average temperature on record was set on July 22, 2024, at 17.16°C (62.89°F). Global temperatures have been trending upwards due to strong El Niño conditions and long-term climate change." }, { "id": 37137, "title": "Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?", "short_title": "Will a marijuana banking bill pass before the 2026 midterm elections?", "url_title": "Will a marijuana banking bill pass before the 2026 midterm elections?", "slug": "will-a-marijuana-banking-bill-pass-before-the-2026-midterm-elections", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T13:09:51.429343Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T21:10:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T02:29:53.148916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T21:16:01.982362Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-04T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36515, "title": "Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T13:09:51.429696Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-03T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-03T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-04T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As recently as 1995, all 50 US states had marijuana classified as fully illegal. The first state to relax its laws was California, which legalized medical marijuana in 1996. Following three decades of legal reforms, as of April 1, 2025, only 6 states still had marijuana and its derived products such as Cannabidiol (CBD) oil classified as fully illegal and criminalized. \n\nHowever, despite the fact that most most states have relaxed their laws, marijuana remains fully illegal on the federal level. As a result, financial institutions such as banks have several stringent requirements from federal regulators which have, in practice, precluded legal businesses such as state-authorized marijuana dispensaries from being able to access banking services, which has forced them into operating mostly as cash businesses. [According to the Congressional Research Service](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11076) (CRS):\n\n> Federal anti-money laundering (AML) laws (i.e., §§ [1956](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1956%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1956\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) and [1957](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1957%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1957\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) of the criminal code) criminalize the handling of proceeds derived from various unlawful activities, including marijuana sales in violation of the CSA. Violators of AML laws may be subject to fines and imprisonment. Individuals could be subject to a twenty-year prison sentence and criminal money penalties under § 1956 for knowingly engaging in financial transactions involving marijuana-related proceeds with the intent to promote a further offense. For [example](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/bank-insider-charged-accepting-bribes-facilitate-millions-dollars-money-laundering), a bank could violate § 1956 for withdrawing funds generated from marijuana sales from a checking account to pay the salaries of medical marijuana dispensary employees on behalf of the dispensary. [Similarly](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/wells-fargo-personal-banker-sentenced-money-laundering-and-bank-fraud), a bank employee could face a ten-year prison term and criminal money penalties under § 1957 for knowingly receiving deposits or allowing withdrawals of \\$10,000 or more in cash derived from the distribution or sale of marijuana.\n\nAdditionally, according to the CRS, the Bank Secrecy Act creates stringent paperwork requirements to file Suspicious Activity Reports for every transaction suspected to be connected with the sale of marijuana, with the risk of severe civil penalties and asset forfeitures faced by banks that fail to comply. \n\nIn April 2025, President Donald J. Trump [was reported](https://themarijuanaherald.com/2025/04/president-trump-urging-congress-to-pass-marijuana-banking-bill-before-midterms-say-senate-staffers/) to be reaching out to members of Congress as part of a renewed push to get legislation through Congress which would ease restrictions on legal marijuana businesses being able to access banking services. According to the report: \n\n> Although cannabis banking legislation hasn’t been filed yet this session, it’s expected to happen soon, with the co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Cannabis Caucus saying recently that it’s one of the group’s top priorities.\n\n> This isn’t the first time Trump has taken a behind-the-scenes role in advocating for marijuana banking reform. The same two staffers told us back in December that he was privately encouraging lawmakers to pass the SAFER Banking Act. That report was later confirmed by CNN, with an article earlier this month stating “After winning the election, Trump and his transition team quietly backed an unsuccessful attempt to incorporate legislation easing restrictions on banking for marijuana companies into a December continuing resolution to fund the government”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, legislation is passed by the United States Congress which prohibits federal banking regulators from taking adverse action against a bank solely because of the bank providing financial services to state-sanctioned marijuana businesses that are in compliance with the laws of their respective states.", "fine_print": "This question resolves as Yes upon the same version of the bill being passed in both houses of Congress (see, e.g., from USAGov [How Laws Are Made](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made)) Thus, the bill being signed into law or enacted is not necessary for this question to resolve.\n\nThis question resolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). An example of legislation that counts, if it were to pass both houses of Congress, is [S.2860, the SAFER Banking Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/2860). \n\nA \"bank\" for purposes of this question is defined as a depository institution organized under the [Federal Deposit Insurance Act](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:12%20section:1813%20edition:prelim\\)) or [Federal Credit Union Act](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:12%20section:1752%20edition:prelim\\)).", "post_id": 37137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762655382.316662, "end_time": 1763636841.536, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762655382.316662, "end_time": 1763636841.536, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10206422596996349 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2431167344342144, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 1.0870998462289188, 2.8627354632344035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6100497057852118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As recently as 1995, all 50 US states had marijuana classified as fully illegal. The first state to relax its laws was California, which legalized medical marijuana in 1996. Following three decades of legal reforms, as of April 1, 2025, only 6 states still had marijuana and its derived products such as Cannabidiol (CBD) oil classified as fully illegal and criminalized. \n\nHowever, despite the fact that most most states have relaxed their laws, marijuana remains fully illegal on the federal level. As a result, financial institutions such as banks have several stringent requirements from federal regulators which have, in practice, precluded legal businesses such as state-authorized marijuana dispensaries from being able to access banking services, which has forced them into operating mostly as cash businesses. [According to the Congressional Research Service](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11076) (CRS):\n\n> Federal anti-money laundering (AML) laws (i.e., §§ [1956](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1956%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1956\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) and [1957](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1957%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1957\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) of the criminal code) criminalize the handling of proceeds derived from various unlawful activities, including marijuana sales in violation of the CSA. Violators of AML laws may be subject to fines and imprisonment. Individuals could be subject to a twenty-year prison sentence and criminal money penalties under § 1956 for knowingly engaging in financial transactions involving marijuana-related proceeds with the intent to promote a further offense. For [example](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/bank-insider-charged-accepting-bribes-facilitate-millions-dollars-money-laundering), a bank could violate § 1956 for withdrawing funds generated from marijuana sales from a checking account to pay the salaries of medical marijuana dispensary employees on behalf of the dispensary. [Similarly](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/wells-fargo-personal-banker-sentenced-money-laundering-and-bank-fraud), a bank employee could face a ten-year prison term and criminal money penalties under § 1957 for knowingly receiving deposits or allowing withdrawals of \\$10,000 or more in cash derived from the distribution or sale of marijuana.\n\nAdditionally, according to the CRS, the Bank Secrecy Act creates stringent paperwork requirements to file Suspicious Activity Reports for every transaction suspected to be connected with the sale of marijuana, with the risk of severe civil penalties and asset forfeitures faced by banks that fail to comply. \n\nIn April 2025, President Donald J. Trump [was reported](https://themarijuanaherald.com/2025/04/president-trump-urging-congress-to-pass-marijuana-banking-bill-before-midterms-say-senate-staffers/) to be reaching out to members of Congress as part of a renewed push to get legislation through Congress which would ease restrictions on legal marijuana businesses being able to access banking services. According to the report: \n\n> Although cannabis banking legislation hasn’t been filed yet this session, it’s expected to happen soon, with the co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Cannabis Caucus saying recently that it’s one of the group’s top priorities.\n\n> This isn’t the first time Trump has taken a behind-the-scenes role in advocating for marijuana banking reform. The same two staffers told us back in December that he was privately encouraging lawmakers to pass the SAFER Banking Act. That report was later confirmed by CNN, with an article earlier this month stating “After winning the election, Trump and his transition team quietly backed an unsuccessful attempt to incorporate legislation easing restrictions on banking for marijuana companies into a December continuing resolution to fund the government”." }, { "id": 37121, "title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "slug": "will-the-us-treasury-issue-bitbonds-by-december-31-2028", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T19:12:06.837377Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T20:31:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.470526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-22T20:31:54.139958Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-23T20:31:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 36510, "title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T19:12:06.837791Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T20:31:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-27T20:31:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-27T20:31:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The proposal for Bitcoin-Enhanced Treasury Bonds (BitBonds), outlined in a April 22, 2025, [<u>Forbes article</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/) by Tonya M. Evans, represents a bold attempt to address the U.S.’s escalating debt crisis while leveraging Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic asset. With \\$14 trillion in federal debt maturing by 2028 and refinancing costs threatening to balloon the deficit, BitBonds aim to lower interest expenses by issuing bonds with a 1% coupon, compared to the 4.5% market rate, saving billions annually. The catch: 10% of proceeds fund Bitcoin purchases for the [<u>U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established by President Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/), which declared Bitcoin “digital gold.” This question is critical as it probes whether the U.S. Treasury will implement this hybrid financial instrument by 2028, a move that could redefine fiscal policy and global perceptions of sovereign debt.\n\nEconomically, BitBonds offer a[<u> budget-neutral solution to a looming fiscal cliff</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), with proponents like Andrew Hohns estimating \\$700 billion in savings over a decade from a \\$2 trillion issuance. Investors gain a 1% coupon and Bitcoin-linked upside, with principal protected, aligning incentives amid tariff-driven inflation and market volatility. Geopolitically, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could reduce reliance on foreign creditors, enhancing monetary sovereignty as trade tensions, particularly with China, intensify. However, challenges abound: Bitcoin’s volatility, cybersecurity risks for federal custody, and regulatory hurdles from agencies like the SEC could stall adoption. [<u>Political resistance, as noted by critics like Nic Puckrin</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), may also arise due to perceptions of speculation.\n\nThe question’s importance lies in its implications for fiscal innovation, U.S. economic stability, and Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance. Forecasting this outcome requires assessing Trump’s policy priorities, Congressional support, and market appetite for a novel asset class in a high-stakes economic environment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to YES if the U.S. Treasury officially issues Bitcoin-Enhanced Treasury Bonds (BitBonds), defined as bonds with at least 10% of proceeds allocated to Bitcoin purchases, by December 31, 2028. Issuance must be confirmed by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), such as Treasury announcements, Congressional records, or major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters). A pilot program of at least \\$5 billion, as proposed by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, qualifies. If no issuance occurs by the deadline, the question resolves to NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753694678.105978, "end_time": 1765344440.808, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753694678.105978, "end_time": 1765344440.808, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.09 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The proposal for Bitcoin-Enhanced Treasury Bonds (BitBonds), outlined in a April 22, 2025, [<u>Forbes article</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/) by Tonya M. Evans, represents a bold attempt to address the U.S.’s escalating debt crisis while leveraging Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic asset. With \\$14 trillion in federal debt maturing by 2028 and refinancing costs threatening to balloon the deficit, BitBonds aim to lower interest expenses by issuing bonds with a 1% coupon, compared to the 4.5% market rate, saving billions annually. The catch: 10% of proceeds fund Bitcoin purchases for the [<u>U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established by President Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/), which declared Bitcoin “digital gold.” This question is critical as it probes whether the U.S. Treasury will implement this hybrid financial instrument by 2028, a move that could redefine fiscal policy and global perceptions of sovereign debt.\n\nEconomically, BitBonds offer a[<u> budget-neutral solution to a looming fiscal cliff</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), with proponents like Andrew Hohns estimating \\$700 billion in savings over a decade from a \\$2 trillion issuance. Investors gain a 1% coupon and Bitcoin-linked upside, with principal protected, aligning incentives amid tariff-driven inflation and market volatility. Geopolitically, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could reduce reliance on foreign creditors, enhancing monetary sovereignty as trade tensions, particularly with China, intensify. However, challenges abound: Bitcoin’s volatility, cybersecurity risks for federal custody, and regulatory hurdles from agencies like the SEC could stall adoption. [<u>Political resistance, as noted by critics like Nic Puckrin</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), may also arise due to perceptions of speculation.\n\nThe question’s importance lies in its implications for fiscal innovation, U.S. economic stability, and Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance. Forecasting this outcome requires assessing Trump’s policy priorities, Congressional support, and market appetite for a novel asset class in a high-stakes economic environment." }, { "id": 37117, "title": "If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?", "short_title": "If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?", "url_title": "If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?", "slug": "if-scotus-hears-monsanto-v-durnell-will-it-rule-for-monsanto", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:56:03.463117Z", "published_at": "2025-04-24T21:05:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T01:35:33.835537Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-24T21:06:11.346422Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36501, "title": "If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:56:03.463464Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-29T21:05:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-29T21:05:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after granting certiorari in case *Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell* (No. 24-1068), [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise sets aside the Missouri state court judgment against Monsanto in a manner favorable to Monsanto. It resolves as **No** if the Court issues a ruling affirming the judgment against Monsanto or otherwise rules in a way that rejects Monsanto’s preemption argument. If the Court does not rule in favor of Monsanto before July 15, 2026, this resolves as **No**. \n\nIf the Court does not grant certiorari in the case before January 15, 2026, this question will be **Annulled.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760837723.374844, "end_time": 1767119651.82, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760837723.374844, "end_time": 1767119651.82, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8134663158059057 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review." }, { "id": 37115, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS agree to hear Monsanto v. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS agree to hear Monsanto v. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-scotus-agree-to-hear-monsanto-v-durnell-before-january-15-2026", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:01:39.044843Z", "published_at": "2025-04-24T21:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T09:05:36.130344Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-24T21:05:23.273168Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36499, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:01:39.045233Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-29T21:04:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-29T21:04:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 15, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted Monsanto Company's petition for writ of certiorari in the case of *Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell*, docket number 24-1068. The question resolves as **No** if, prior to such date, the Court denies certiorari or the petition is withdrawn or dismissed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37115, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762465196.629, "end_time": 1764925524.034, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762465196.629, "end_time": 1764925524.034, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4591149289765138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.273976082073579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8873690230576172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 130, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review." }, { "id": 37112, "title": "Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?", "short_title": "US-Iran nuclear deal before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "US-Iran nuclear deal before Sep 2025?", "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T11:00:34.178583Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.182535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-09T09:51:37.576992Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 239, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-17T02:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T09:23:39.428085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 36497, "title": "Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T11:00:34.178963Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T00:18:07.567565Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany) concluded the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA). Under the terms of the agreement, Iran committed to reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium, limiting its enrichment capacity, and permitting enhanced oversight by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA). In exchange, several nuclear-related sanctions were eased, providing Iran with economic relief.\n\nHowever, in 2018, the United States under President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, re-imposing harsh sanctions on Iran and effectively ending the agreement. In response, Iran began scaling back its compliance with the deal, resuming uranium enrichment and increasing its stockpile of nuclear material.\n\nIn April 2025, the United States and Iran [resumed indirect negotiations](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) aimed at reaching a new agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program. These talks mark the first significant diplomatic engagement between the two nations since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The fourth round of talks [is planned](https://www.reuters.com/world/next-round-iran-us-nuclear-talks-likely-be-oman-weekend-2025-05-06/) to take place in May 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program after May 12 and before September 1, 2025.\n\nFor an agreement to qualify for this question it must meet the following criteria:\n\n1. Contains limits on Iran enriching or stockpiling nuclear materials.\n2. Allows monitoring or inspection by parties other than the Iranian Government, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency.", "fine_print": "Unilateral actions by either party will have no impact on this question, only a mutual agreement qualifies.\n\nPreliminary talks, frameworks, or informal understandings do not count. Only a formal, signed agreement qualifies. ", "post_id": 37112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753996904.869283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753996904.869283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 132, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.07109139853548438 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.765530629502601, 7.44919988866331, 1.9928133636953924, 3.70580532178521, 0.8872631892960711, 0.2180775831398611, 0.5737123304401855, 0.009011472232461938, 0.03170522890025189, 0.0, 0.7092251803370444, 0.0, 0.8752676838671157, 0.0015620010816379, 0.0012391944224951369, 0.09392445901879433, 0.012057631726622935, 0.0, 0.2294027429677301, 0.0, 0.007782515123616614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07848455830163863, 0.0, 0.00268154829236009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007126753249711776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1939281612602651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.271267486809776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011152133654235379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7837534304304083e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002449430530375752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014433494072754334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36749821724517784 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.79340483228586, "peer_score": 12.972187722359255, "coverage": 0.9999943973414188, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999943973414188, "spot_peer_score": 18.769091707723533, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 69.79340483228586, "peer_archived_score": 12.972187722359255, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.769091707723533, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany) concluded the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA). Under the terms of the agreement, Iran committed to reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium, limiting its enrichment capacity, and permitting enhanced oversight by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA). In exchange, several nuclear-related sanctions were eased, providing Iran with economic relief.\n\nHowever, in 2018, the United States under President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, re-imposing harsh sanctions on Iran and effectively ending the agreement. In response, Iran began scaling back its compliance with the deal, resuming uranium enrichment and increasing its stockpile of nuclear material.\n\nIn April 2025, the United States and Iran [resumed indirect negotiations](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) aimed at reaching a new agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program. These talks mark the first significant diplomatic engagement between the two nations since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The fourth round of talks [is planned](https://www.reuters.com/world/next-round-iran-us-nuclear-talks-likely-be-oman-weekend-2025-05-06/) to take place in May 2025." }, { "id": 37099, "title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "short_title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "url_title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "slug": "will-china-and-the-eu-reach-a-trade-or-tariff-agreement-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T13:39:59.345418Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T14:27:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T22:44:36.361195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-18T14:28:16.250997Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-04-19T14:27:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 6, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 36494, "title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T13:39:59.345859Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T14:27:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-23T14:27:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-23T14:27:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2025, the prospect of a China-EU trade or tariff agreement is shaped by escalating global trade tensions, particularly driven by U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 145%, severely restricting China’s access to the American market. This has pushed [<u>China to pivot toward the European Union</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses), its second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at €739 billion in 2023, to offset economic losses. However, the EU faces its own challenges, including U.S. tariffs of 10% on general goods and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting it to seek trade diversification.\n\nA key concern for both parties is trade diversion, where Chinese goods originally destined for the [<u>U.S. could flood the EU market</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html), threatening local industries. The EU has responded by establishing a task force to monitor import surges and is exploring safeguard measures to protect its markets. China, meanwhile, employs tariff arbitrage, redirecting exports to markets with lower barriers, such as Europe. This strategy is supported by a weakening Chinese yuan, which has fallen 10% against the euro and 14% against the Swedish krona in 2025, boosting Chinese export competitiveness. However, this risks a “[<u>deflationary tsunami</u>](https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-deflationary-tsunami-headed-europe)” in Europe, as cheaper Chinese goods could undercut local producers, creating a dilemma for EU policymakers wary of replicating U.S.-style protectionism after criticizing Trump’s trade disruptions.\n\nNegotiations between China and the EU are complex, focusing on tariffs, market access, and targeted agreements, such as [<u>minimum pricing for Chinese electric vehicles to replace EU tariffs imposed in 2024 (up to 45.3%)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/). High-level engagements, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks with EU leaders and a planned EU-China summit in July 2025, signal intent to stabilize trade relations. Yet, challenges persist: the EU’s €292 billion trade deficit with China, concerns over Chinese overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., China’s ties with Russia) fuel mistrust. Additionally, any agreement requires [<u>consensus among EU member states</u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-relations-after-the-2024-european-elections-a-timeline/), often divided on balancing economic benefits with strategic concerns. For instance, German carmakers push for cooperation due to their reliance on China, while others advocate for stronger defenses against Chinese imports.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the People's Republic of China and the European Union, according to[<u> credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must be a formal, binding arrangement (e.g., a signed trade deal, tariff adjustment agreement, or minimum pricing deal for specific goods like electric vehicles) that directly addresses trade flows, tariffs, or subsidies between the two parties. Non-binding memoranda of understanding, joint statements of intent, or agreements limited to non-trade issues (e.g., climate or cultural cooperation) do not qualify. If no such agreement is announced by the deadline, or if credible sources do not confirm an agreement, the question will resolve as 'No'.\" Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759963466.046686, "end_time": 1771651048.267, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759963466.046686, "end_time": 1771651048.267, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1721429555445061 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2025, the prospect of a China-EU trade or tariff agreement is shaped by escalating global trade tensions, particularly driven by U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 145%, severely restricting China’s access to the American market. This has pushed [<u>China to pivot toward the European Union</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses), its second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at €739 billion in 2023, to offset economic losses. However, the EU faces its own challenges, including U.S. tariffs of 10% on general goods and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting it to seek trade diversification.\n\nA key concern for both parties is trade diversion, where Chinese goods originally destined for the [<u>U.S. could flood the EU market</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html), threatening local industries. The EU has responded by establishing a task force to monitor import surges and is exploring safeguard measures to protect its markets. China, meanwhile, employs tariff arbitrage, redirecting exports to markets with lower barriers, such as Europe. This strategy is supported by a weakening Chinese yuan, which has fallen 10% against the euro and 14% against the Swedish krona in 2025, boosting Chinese export competitiveness. However, this risks a “[<u>deflationary tsunami</u>](https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-deflationary-tsunami-headed-europe)” in Europe, as cheaper Chinese goods could undercut local producers, creating a dilemma for EU policymakers wary of replicating U.S.-style protectionism after criticizing Trump’s trade disruptions.\n\nNegotiations between China and the EU are complex, focusing on tariffs, market access, and targeted agreements, such as [<u>minimum pricing for Chinese electric vehicles to replace EU tariffs imposed in 2024 (up to 45.3%)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/). High-level engagements, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks with EU leaders and a planned EU-China summit in July 2025, signal intent to stabilize trade relations. Yet, challenges persist: the EU’s €292 billion trade deficit with China, concerns over Chinese overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., China’s ties with Russia) fuel mistrust. Additionally, any agreement requires [<u>consensus among EU member states</u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-relations-after-the-2024-european-elections-a-timeline/), often divided on balancing economic benefits with strategic concerns. For instance, German carmakers push for cooperation due to their reliance on China, while others advocate for stronger defenses against Chinese imports." }, { "id": 37097, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.983097Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.899646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32761, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - 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If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\r\n\r\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \r\n\r\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \r\n\r\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\r\n\r\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\r\n\r\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.\r\n\r\nIf the event occurs before the question closes, the question resolves as Yes.", "post_id": 37097, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745550636.756797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745550636.756797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 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"baseline_archived_score": 51.98308032109279, "peer_archived_score": 0.7787116849907512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.15967882342199008, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \r\n\r\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\r\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\r\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \r\n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\r\n\r\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\r\n\r\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\r\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\r\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\r\n\r\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 37096, "title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-harvard-university-lose-its-tax-exempt-status-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:36:53.978236Z", "published_at": "2025-04-23T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.395078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T11:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 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"resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Trump Threatens Harvard’s Tax Status, Escalating Billion-Dollar Pressure Campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/us/politics/trump-harvard-tax-status.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2025, Harvard loses its [501(c)(3) status](https://oc.finance.harvard.edu/faq/harvard-university-tax-exempt-organization).", "fine_print": "If there is no credible reporting that Harvard has lost its 501(c)(3) status with the Internal Revenue Service before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. 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Less than or equal to that amount resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "Preliminary results are sufficient to resolve the question. If there is any confusion about the number, Metaculus will resolve based on whatever number is posted at [this pdf](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/tbcics.pdf) that is labelled as May 2025, including preliminary. 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"group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before July 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 37052, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745558319.639671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745558319.639671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 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2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 37051, "title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-harvard-university-lose-its-tax-exempt-status-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.161428Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.118700Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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Campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/us/politics/trump-harvard-tax-status.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2025, Harvard loses its [501(c)(3) status](https://oc.finance.harvard.edu/faq/harvard-university-tax-exempt-organization).", "fine_print": "If there is no credible reporting that Harvard has lost its 501(c)(3) status with the Internal Revenue Service before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 37051, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745552352.216123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06713054545454546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745552352.216123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06713054545454546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9328694545454546, 0.06713054545454546 ], 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