Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1100
{ "count": 5895, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1080", "results": [ { "id": 34983, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by Nail Factory of Ineligible Frozen Siluriformes Fish Products Imported From Vietnam issued December 19, 2024, be closed before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-by-nail-factory-of-ineligible-frozen-siluriformes-fish-products-imported-from-vietnam-issued-december-19-2024-be-closed-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.602631Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.927847Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T23:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34469, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by Nail Factory of Ineligible Frozen Siluriformes Fish Products Imported From Vietnam issued December 19, 2024, be closed before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.602631Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T23:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T23:09:32.344916Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.85, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[US importer recalls frozen catfish from Vietnam](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/nail-factory-recalls-ineligible-frozen-siluriformes-fish-products-imported-vietnam)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of NAIL Factory's imported ineligible frozen Siluriformes fish products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/nail-factory-recalls-ineligible-frozen-siluriformes-fish-products-imported-vietnam) is accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739516001.557426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6125 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739516001.557426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6125 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.437804343145211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.027983961324444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9337656555592835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.4356884894911544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.23317510324042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.07095202666684558, 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"single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[US importer recalls frozen catfish from Vietnam](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/nail-factory-recalls-ineligible-frozen-siluriformes-fish-products-imported-vietnam)" }, { "id": 34982, "title": "Will the US federal government be shutdown before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-federal-government-be-shutdown-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.570480Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.993701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34468, "title": "Will the US federal government be shutdown before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.570480Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:46:58.568866Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nerdwallet: Government Shutdown Averted in Last-Minute Flurry](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/government-shutdown-looms-yet-again-what-you-need-to-know) \"With the shutdown clock reset to March 14, the new Republican-led Congress must pass a spending bill for the fiscal year or another continuing resolution by then, or face another shutdown crisis.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the United States federal government is in [shut down furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#url=Shutdown-Furlough) status, as announced by the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739516076.785069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739516076.785069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3631117963217999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 1.693138704005709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3632978732382441, 2.1866477401446156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3807242655725125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7742166368108382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 23.14798547061168, "peer_score": 12.299958208264686, "coverage": 0.968984836406178, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.968984836406178, "spot_peer_score": 10.141428517610162, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 23.14798547061168, "peer_archived_score": 12.299958208264686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.141428517610162, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nerdwallet: Government Shutdown Averted in Last-Minute Flurry](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/government-shutdown-looms-yet-again-what-you-need-to-know) \"With the shutdown clock reset to March 14, the new Republican-led Congress must pass a spending bill for the fiscal year or another continuing resolution by then, or face another shutdown crisis.\"" }, { "id": 34981, "title": "Will the US formally recognize Nicolás Maduro as the President of Venezuela before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-formally-recognize-nicolas-maduro-as-the-president-of-venezuela-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.538846Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.668068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T23:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34467, "title": "Will the US formally recognize Nicolás Maduro as the President of Venezuela before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.538846Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T23:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T23:03:00.601336Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, the US does not formally recognize Maduro as President of Venezuala and instead has recognized opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia as Venezuela's president-elect. 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T00:46:32.286215Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before April 1, 2025: - The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before the one listed above. - A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before the one listed above. - Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before the one listed above. - The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before the one listed above. - A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. - A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before the one listed above. 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Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 34978, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-impose-any-new-tariffs-on-colombia-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.138891Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.053553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T22:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34464, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on Colombia before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:11.138891Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T22:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T22:47:44.578102Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-14T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters: [All of Donald Trump's tariff threats](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/all-donald-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-28/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US government officially announces the implementation of any new tariff on imports from Colombia after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. 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If a tariff is announced but does not go into effect, [such as happened](https://www.globaltradeandsanctionslaw.com/trump-2-0-u-s-tariffs-on-china-take-effect-mexico-and-canada-granted-30-day-pause/) with Mexico and Canada, it will not count.", "post_id": 34978, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739516005.076437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739516005.076437, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22399999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.776, 0.22399999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.4048187707039211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.19496837784713386, 1.4944553162571963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22991711557618177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5593562264303004, 0.0, 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If a tariff is announced but does not go into effect, [such as happened](https://www.globaltradeandsanctionslaw.com/trump-2-0-u-s-tariffs-on-china-take-effect-mexico-and-canada-granted-30-day-pause/) with Mexico and Canada, it will not count.", "post_id": 34977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739479853.500808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739479853.500808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20570644821597972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7332555181382134, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.974095018595498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6774401445581095, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4105005026629334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 1.3127211782764296, 0.0, 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The proposed withdrawal could occur within 30, 60, or 90 days, though officials emphasise that no final decision has been made. Trump had briefly removed US forces from Syria in the past, however he quickly reinstated them and as of early 2025, approximately 2,000 personnel are stationed there (1,100 troops as \"temporary rotational forces\" and 900 as \"core troops\"). The US military mission in Syria has been to counter ISIS and support local military groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A withdrawal could jeopardize these efforts, particularly regarding the security of detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS fighters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, either of the following has happened:\n\n* the US has officially announced that a plan to withdraw at least half of the US troops stationed in Syria will be set in motion\n* such a withdrawal has already taken place, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The \"at least half\" part of the resolution criteria could be resolved in various ways, including but not limited to an announcement that at least 1,000 troops will be withdrawn or a maximum of 1,000 troops will remain stationed there, or an announcement that all temporary rotation forces will be withdrawn.\n* For this question to resolve as **Yes** via an announcement, it will have to be an official announcement (e.g., via a DoD press briefing, an Executive Order, or CENTCOM official communications) and it will have to imply that a specific plan has been created and the decision to implement it has been made. Vague announcements of intent will not suffice.\n* For purposes of this question, the number of US troops in Syria is assumed to be 2,000. 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For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 34967, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739389247.308875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7070000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739389247.308875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7070000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7821507030766515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.976124Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T18:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T18:36:19.870033Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC Science Focus: [How many countries are there in 2025?](https://www.sciencefocus.com/planet-earth/how-many-countries-are-there): \"There are 195 recognised countries in the world, according to the United Nations. 193 of these are member states of the UN, while two countries are non-member observer states: Vatican City and the State of Palestine. Other organisations list a different number of countries on Earth, with US intelligence agency the CIA listing 237 countries in total.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states is exactly 193 on March 31, 2025, when checked by Metaculus. It will resolve negatively if the number of member states is not 193. The mechanism of checking will be to access [this specific link](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states) from the UN. 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Other organisations list a different number of countries on Earth, with US intelligence agency the CIA listing 237 countries in total.\"" }, { "id": 34963, "title": "Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an \"Exempt\" entity on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-state-of-delawares-division-of-corporations-list-openai-as-an-exempt-entity-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.945171Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.958937Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T17:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34449, "title": "Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an \"Exempt\" entity on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.945171Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T17:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T17:50:08.066025Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI is listed as \"Exempt\" by Delaware's Division of Corporations on March 31, 2025. To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. If it shows \"Entity Type: Exempt\" then this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "The specific link to the website of the resolution source is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution.", "post_id": 34963, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739389343.900643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739389343.900643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.26293477455668096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.605409435834991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 1.226983882618223, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.488421853663366, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7408114564876929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5778496399137918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7505895384294058, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7550491926232843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -143.27557056317482, "peer_score": -2.9708979071538986, "coverage": 0.9719164533085293, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9719164533085293, "spot_peer_score": -16.45597389267457, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -143.27557056317482, "peer_archived_score": -2.9708979071538986, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.45597389267457, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)" } ] }
