Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1120
{ "count": 5896, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1100", "results": [ { "id": 34963, "title": "Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an \"Exempt\" entity on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-state-of-delawares-division-of-corporations-list-openai-as-an-exempt-entity-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.945171Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.958937Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T17:48:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34449, "title": "Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an \"Exempt\" entity on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.945171Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T17:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T17:50:08.066025Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI is listed as \"Exempt\" by Delaware's Division of Corporations on March 31, 2025. To access the status page, go [here](https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/ecorp/entitysearch/NameSearch.aspx) and do a search for file number 5902936. If it shows \"Entity Type: Exempt\" then this question resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "The specific link to the website of the resolution source is provided for convenience, but if the resolution data is at a different page at the resolution source, then that will be used for resolution.", "post_id": 34963, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739389343.900643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739389343.900643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.26293477455668096 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.605409435834991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 1.226983882618223, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.488421853663366, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 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"movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/)" }, { "id": 34962, "title": "Will Donald Trump visit El Salvador after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-visit-el-salvador-after-the-launch-of-this-question-and-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.914919Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.040194Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34448, "title": "Will Donald Trump visit El Salvador after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.914919Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:15:19.635813Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025, either President Donald Trump personally visits El Salvador.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739389204.962644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739389204.962644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], 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"baseline_archived_score": 83.93648760122437, "peer_archived_score": 1.9609172290453762, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.808664322445993, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wikipedia: [List of international presidential trips made by Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Donald_Trump)" }, { "id": 34961, "title": "Will Apple stock continuously remain above $200 through March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apple-stock-continuously-remain-above-200-through-march-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.881926Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.280797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:22:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34447, "title": "Will Apple stock continuously remain above $200 through March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-08T04:04:09.881926Z", "open_time": "2025-02-12T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T21:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T21:24:06.638610Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-12T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNBC: [Apple has worst day since August following reports of China, AI struggles](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/16/apple-has-worst-day-since-august-down-11percent-from-december-peak.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple remains above $200.00 continuously after the launch of this question and through March 31, 2025. If the price ever is below that (including as an intraday low), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/).", "fine_print": "In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.", "post_id": 34961, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739389896.394414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8140000000000001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739389896.394414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8140000000000001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6569704433414547 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 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The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. 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The index dates back to 1923, when Standard and Poors introduced an index containing 233 companies. The index of 500 stocks was introduced in 1957. The S&P 500 index measures returns of the large cap segment of the U.S. stock market. 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"group_rank": null, "description": "According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: \n\n> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America. \\[...] The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy, and in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation’s economy and its people, I am directing that it officially be renamed the Gulf of America.\n\nAdditionally: \n\n> As such, within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘‘Gulf of America’’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law. The Board shall provide guidance to ensure all federal references to the Gulf of America, including on agency maps, contracts, and other documents and communica- tions shall reflect its renaming.\n\nThe National Map at nationalmap.gov is \"a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation. It has many uses ranging from recreation to scientific analysis to emergency response.\"\n\nAs of February 1, 2025, it had the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula still labelled as the Gulf of Mexico on the National Map:\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [National Map](https://apps.nationalmap.gov/viewer/) refers to the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula as the Gulf of America before March 1, 2025. If it is not referred to as the Gulf of America on that date, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is no name at all on the body of water, this resolves as **No**. For this to count, it must be called the Gulf of America on the National Map. If multiple names are used (e.g., \"Gulf of America formerly known as Gulf of Mexico\"), it will count as long as Gulf of America is one of the names.", "post_id": 34937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1739065465.173875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1739065465.173875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.33793377870318325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.5965892957781368, 1.340480546600963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41336531919859754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -59.01005043622656, "peer_score": 1.8361517728658963, "coverage": 0.9527088750070994, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9527088750070994, "spot_peer_score": -8.82661156572802, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -59.01005043622656, "peer_archived_score": 1.8361517728658963, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.82661156572802, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Donald Trump's executive order [Restoring Names That Honor American Greatness](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/pdf/2025-02096.pdf) signed January 20, 2025: \n\n> The area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning Nation and has remained an indelible part of America. \\[...] The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy, and in recognition of this flourishing economic resource and its critical importance to our Nation’s economy and its people, I am directing that it officially be renamed the Gulf of America.\n\nAdditionally: \n\n> As such, within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘‘Gulf of America’’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law. The Board shall provide guidance to ensure all federal references to the Gulf of America, including on agency maps, contracts, and other documents and communica- tions shall reflect its renaming.\n\nThe National Map at nationalmap.gov is \"a collaborative effort among the USGS and other Federal, State, and local partners to improve and deliver topographic information for the Nation. It has many uses ranging from recreation to scientific analysis to emergency response.\"\n\nAs of February 1, 2025, it had the body of water west of Florida, south of Louisiana, and north of Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula still labelled as the Gulf of Mexico on the National Map:\n\n" }, { "id": 34885, "title": "Will President Trump issue a new presidential action delaying or revoking the tariffs on Canada before March 4, 2025?", "short_title": "President Trump Delays Tariffs on Canada March 2025?", "url_title": "President Trump Delays Tariffs on Canada March 2025?", "slug": "president-trump-delays-tariffs-on-canada-march-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-07T22:35:42.748790Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T13:49:14.176314Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.543295Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-10T13:49:14.176312Z", "comment_count": 121, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-04T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T17:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 775, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34371, "title": "Will President Trump issue a new presidential action delaying or revoking the tariffs on Canada before March 4, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-07T22:35:42.749169Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-04T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-03T17:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-03T17:51:23.946802Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-03T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOn February 1, 2025, United States President Donald Trump [published an executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) that would implement tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada, with an effective date of February 4, 2025. On February 3, Trump [delayed the tariffs for one month](https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-sheinbaum-trudeau-017efa8c3343b8d2a9444f7e65356ae9) after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [announced border security steps](https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1886529228193022429) that Canada would take. The [executive order published on that date](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border/) delays the implementation of the tariffs until March 4, 2025, at 12:01 AM Eastern Time.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 10, 2025, and before 12:01 AM Eastern Time on March 4, 2025, the Trump administration has published a new [presidential action](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/) that further delays, for any amount of time, or revokes any part of the tariffs on Canada described in the [February 1, 2025, executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) and the [later executive order delaying the tariffs published on February 3, 2025](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border/).", "fine_print": "* To count, the presidential action must be published and publicly accessible (likely appearing on the [presidential actions section of the White House website](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/)) before the specified time. A verbal statement or other written announcement besides a presidential action (for example a post on social media), is not sufficient.\n* In the event the timing of the publication of the presidential action is uncertain such that it is unclear from the document itself and the website on which it is hosted whether the presidential action was published before the date and time described, Metaculus will rely on reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to determine if the presidential action was published prior to the deadline.\n* If the tariff rate changes without any part of the tariffs being delayed or revoked, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 34885, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741017576.452309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 770, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741017576.452309, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 770, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.33146198215165756 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0138518235237113, 0.23494296362781486, 0.6655157890888783, 0.1251955274118014, 0.0017567245651549767, 2.1127668318304096, 0.19383254856032192, 1.4688176687910559e-06, 0.9250129272475693, 1.2390711373651175, 1.228903443901003, 0.02198635700477531, 0.6998488160445845, 1.3110456094356944, 1.6396694562727419, 2.5233877602040473, 0.4402140721197775, 0.005133294906736438, 0.45569789331963184, 1.9602351555778275, 4.951488161980761, 1.0715167812800717, 0.04864061461660559, 1.068391029507537, 1.5676713034401457, 3.061016058802728, 0.09355596011277079, 0.0421891185045581, 0.5395164933044836, 0.37678086632234314, 2.2553651845777503, 0.008769093264039723, 0.15572561169877724, 0.6086358276421301, 0.5588252761998753, 0.8874032169905695, 0.16455979166986545, 0.5793406262378447, 0.0605361470931532, 0.5042833628672336, 0.5835003340080456, 0.058052388373141466, 0.36797897695356135, 0.07147854715748503, 0.08881273800350103, 1.0686644304890187, 0.03277567987532237, 0.0, 0.19519735864586574, 0.0, 3.3091967005473437, 0.5459517977790693, 0.004591871747240224, 1.1113879870799028, 0.0004885543887719017, 1.0287109435755533, 6.817431929029092e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04679816781763571, 0.31130114711034207, 0.11851311917748113, 0.14111585583382236, 0.07285430662916703, 0.08249574487683965, 0.5793800368729772, 0.641798261879739, 0.008217834082310192, 0.0004346482681608538, 0.0009969659069900658, 0.06406246977017858, 0.0002566592817001894, 0.023553190774010985, 0.0009775780860364716, 0.0007078198876748771, 0.09887229703548714, 6.966720331287452e-06, 0.0010001954130520621, 0.0009468130317288092, 0.0003132099159133423, 0.07058175533876862, 0.00035634234383156136, 0.7802072763546285, 0.0005703044032117339, 2.731505145010825e-07, 0.003751110392983005, 0.0005007919019704161, 1.8558050502745158e-05, 0.00016686348317772798, 2.4819438021914262e-06, 0.8994861715136512, 1.1074705902468252e-06, 0.00023961849163824718, 1.340276667132146e-05, 0.5687479834070258, 0.5283786017087636, 4.047841619821708e-06, 4.564895997674397e-09, 2.2118586674552584e-05, 3.082521902126094 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3011, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOn February 1, 2025, United States President Donald Trump [published an executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/) that would implement tariffs of 25% on most imports from Canada, with an effective date of February 4, 2025. On February 3, Trump [delayed the tariffs for one month](https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-china-sheinbaum-trudeau-017efa8c3343b8d2a9444f7e65356ae9) after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau [announced border security steps](https://x.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1886529228193022429) that Canada would take. The [executive order published on that date](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/progress-on-the-situation-at-our-northern-border/) delays the implementation of the tariffs until March 4, 2025, at 12:01 AM Eastern Time." }, { "id": 34880, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "short_title": "US tariffs against the EU before Apr 7, 2025?", "url_title": "US tariffs against the EU before Apr 7, 2025?", "slug": "us-tariffs-against-the-eu-before-apr-7-2025", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-07T11:32:12.051842Z", "published_at": "2025-02-14T16:27:59.930845Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.526848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-14T16:27:59.930843Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34368, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose new tariffs on the EU before April 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-07T11:32:12.052181Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-23T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-23T03:18:01.275067Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-17T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any new US tariffs that apply to imports from all EU member states take effect and stay in effect for at least seven days before April 7, 2025, according to official [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/news/) or EU press releases, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* Any tariff that was not in effect on February 14, 2025 counts.\n* The whole EU has to be targeted by tariffs. If at least one EU member state is not included, this question will *not* resolve as **Yes**. The tariffs can target other states besides EU members.\n* The tariff rate or tariff scope (i.e. which industries are being targetted) is immaterial to the question resolution. If tariffs are postponed after they took effect or canceled after being in effect (even for a short time), the question will still resolve positively.\n* The tariffs have to be in effect for a total of seven days. If they come into effect, are paused, and then resume, the total number of days will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 34880, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742223029.686132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742223029.686132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8507908777913331 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0011160507165339513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5028188102394395, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003140657611517779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009104928146014851, 0.5919456382250862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009400929107262819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015905270898504797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020448973309364713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017751730710432278, 0.010033693009389048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008246561353721116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1555629139392006, 0.0023430504572772284, 0.0026718728115051014, 0.00022855231852052916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006050930535116419, 0.017363302970072207, 0.013441174075732547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317656631140828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18795762859096504, 0.00745418629536983, 0.032323983287814724, 0.0038668375211360234, 0.003033740382392937, 0.42122163158758874, 0.012904395453384723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3637055472990403, 0.08633762966036213, 0.039143517677046796, 0.05299036975659428, 0.774770903305717, 1.429260426968114, 0.149460018767886, 0.6648259212438545, 1.3958102898459095, 0.053358560127498456, 2.7336254579481123, 0.005432350986704414, 0.4125824348004209, 1.1531331053890514, 0.0, 2.8979111403339974, 0.0, 0.7326215666034533, 0.00486434593115337, 2.1314812825797387 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.22308792510807, "peer_score": 34.4150392382152, "coverage": 0.9999704488650082, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999704488650082, "spot_peer_score": 64.18115367865333, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 60.22308792510807, "peer_archived_score": 34.4150392382152, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 64.18115367865333, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 580, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The new US administration under President Donald J. Trump is aggressively using new tariffs to achieve its policy goals. In the first month of his presidency, the Trump administration [imposed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, which were both [postponed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c87d5rlee52o) after agreeing upon new border security measures. An additional [10% tariff](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffs-on-imports-from-canada-mexico-and-china/) was also introduced on imports from China.\n\nTrump has already [threatened](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn4zgx808g7o) the EU with tariffs at the beginning of February 2025, mostly because of the fact that currently, the EU imposes a [10% tariff](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/bmw-ceo-proposes-cutting-eu-tariff-us-vehicle-imports-25-2025-01-28/) on US cars imported to the bloc, while the US imposes a 2.5% tariff on the EU automotive industry, making US carmakers less competitive in the European markets. The EU also maintains [higher tariffs](https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/transatlantic-trade-tensions-looming-us-eu-showdown) than the US on some agricultural products, such as beef and pork.\n\nIn 2018, the US [imposed](https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en) tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum imports from the EU under Section 232 of the [Trade Expansion Act](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-76/pdf/STATUTE-76-Pg872.pdf), citing national security concerns. These tariffs [were lifted](https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/2021/biden-and-europe-remove-trumps-steel-and-aluminum) under the Biden administration, but on February 12 they [were reannounced](https://www.reuters.com/markets/eu-should-negotiate-avert-trade-war-germany-says-bloc-ministers-meet-2025-02-12/) by the Trump administration to be imposed from March 12, 2025." }, { "id": 34861, "title": "Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?", "short_title": "China launch antitrust probe into Intel before April, 2025?", "url_title": "China launch antitrust probe into Intel before April, 2025?", "slug": "china-launch-antitrust-probe-into-intel-before-april-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-06T22:14:07.670965Z", "published_at": "2025-02-07T20:53:29.760347Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.534959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-07T20:53:29.760345Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34355, "title": "Will China launch an antitrust investigation into Intel before April, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-06T22:14:07.671289Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T13:18:34.982142Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and eliminated the duty-free exemption for low-value packages, in accordance with his campaing promises. In response, China [filed a complain](https://www.reuters.com/world/china-challenges-trump-tariffs-wto-package-shippers-warn-chaos-2025-02-06/)t with the World Trade Organization, asserting that these U.S. actions are protectionist and violate WTO rules. [Furthermore](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj31l4p7vzo), China impemented various retaliatory measures, including\n\n* its own tariffs on American coal, LGN, agricultural machinery, and pick-up trucks\n* adding Calvin Klein to their \"unreliable entity\" list, accusing them of \"discriminatory measures against Chinese enterprises\"\n* export controls on rare metals\n* reviving antitrust investigations against Google and Nvidia.\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/2ec45e79-9502-4ffd-82e8-888d9283c776), China regulators are also considering launching an investigation against Intel. 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34333, "title": "Will the US officially announce the withdrawal of at least half of its troops out of Syria before April, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-05T16:11:11.590472Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T13:05:52.205970Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726), the US Department of Defense is drafting plans for a full withdrawal of American troops from Syria following renewed interest from Donald Trump. The proposed withdrawal could occur within 30, 60, or 90 days, though officials emphasise that no final decision has been made. Trump had briefly removed US forces from Syria in the past, however he quickly reinstated them and as of early 2025, approximately 2,000 personnel are stationed there (1,100 troops as \"temporary rotational forces\" and 900 as \"core troops\"). The US military mission in Syria has been to counter ISIS and support local military groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A withdrawal could jeopardize these efforts, particularly regarding the security of detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS fighters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, either of the following has happened:\n\n* the US has officially announced that a plan to withdraw at least half of the US troops stationed in Syria will be set in motion\n* such a withdrawal has already taken place, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The \"at least half\" part of the resolution criteria could be resolved in various ways, including but not limited to an announcement that at least 1,000 troops will be withdrawn or a maximum of 1,000 troops will remain stationed there, or an announcement that all temporary rotation forces will be withdrawn.\n* For this question to resolve as **Yes** via an announcement, it will have to be an official announcement (e.g., via a DoD press briefing, an Executive Order, or CENTCOM official communications) and it will have to imply that a specific plan has been created and the decision to implement it has been made. Vague announcements of intent will not suffice.\n* For purposes of this question, the number of US troops in Syria is assumed to be 2,000. In cases in which the denominator is announced to be different from 2,000, the one-half threshold will be adjusted accordingly.", "post_id": 34838, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743380446.330439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743380446.330439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02106259419070278 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.638951172686628, 5.375008650862111, 1.7678714070777155, 0.9848072821810645, 0.3011448130352889, 0.8563627282231405, 0.001770091099343005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5517300740805677, 0.018892335520048254, 0.028168273888299754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035029298992178354, 0.01552736403589142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09010784841661792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0659099998530936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010228516799093708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002884145530320797, 0.00646051809270714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014745534528646544, 0.0, 0.012659848026058247, 0.0, 0.008178451525312864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.009159026026701877, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005712198004389287, 0.0, 0.0021014002097153586, 0.03564310727744694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005030841343722017 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 60.64081294195575, "peer_score": 20.78127434173177, "coverage": 0.9991131999893407, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9991131999893407, "spot_peer_score": 12.359186154196374, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 60.64081294195575, "peer_archived_score": 20.78127434173177, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.359186154196374, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 863, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NBC](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/dod-drafting-plans-withdraw-us-troops-syria-recent-trump-comments-rcna190726), the US Department of Defense is drafting plans for a full withdrawal of American troops from Syria following renewed interest from Donald Trump. The proposed withdrawal could occur within 30, 60, or 90 days, though officials emphasise that no final decision has been made. Trump had briefly removed US forces from Syria in the past, however he quickly reinstated them and as of early 2025, approximately 2,000 personnel are stationed there (1,100 troops as \"temporary rotational forces\" and 900 as \"core troops\"). The US military mission in Syria has been to counter ISIS and support local military groups, such as the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A withdrawal could jeopardize these efforts, particularly regarding the security of detention facilities housing thousands of ISIS fighters." }, { "id": 34829, "title": "Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-deepseek-be-ranked-higher-than-chatgpt-on-the-appstore-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-05T04:17:26.447168Z", "published_at": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.387230Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 34325, "title": "Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-05T04:17:26.447168Z", "open_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T21:44:29.117709Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[DeepSeek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek) is a Chinese AI company founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng. In December 2024, the company released DeepSeek v3, an open source model with 37B active parameters that cost under \\$6 million to train. Despite its size or its training cost, v3 had incredible benchmark scores, [significantly outperforming GPT-4o 0513](https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v1#S5). DeepSeek followed this up with DeepSeek R1 in January 2025, which [appeared to be](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf) on par with OpenAI's o1.\n\nBy January 27, 2025, DeepSeek's chatbot app had surpassed ChatGPT as the most-downloaded free app on both the App Store and Google Play, leading to Nvidia's stock [dropping](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qw7z2v1pgo) more than 15%, accompanied by similar but smaller drops in the stock prices of Microsoft and Google.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [DeepSeek - AI Assistant app](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/deepseek-ai-assistant/id6737597349) is ranked higher than [ChatGPT](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/chatgpt/id6448311069) in the [Top free iPhone Productivity Apps](https://apps.apple.com/gb/charts/iphone/productivity-apps/6007?chart=top-free) list of the AppStore when accessed by Metaculus on April 1, 2025.\n\n#### Note that this question closes early, on March 11, 2025.", "fine_print": "If ChatGPT is not present in the list but DeepSeek is, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If DeepSeek is not present but ChatGPT is, this question will resolve as **No**. If neither is present, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 34829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738859719.758517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738859719.758517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.662976380608357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4255734980278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6196655812872844, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 3.3677377552031147, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7588465445621289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -82.15604245632542, "peer_score": -6.809925441133092, "coverage": 0.9839363622003132, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839363622003132, "spot_peer_score": -0.09157516653676925, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -82.15604245632542, "peer_archived_score": -6.809925441133092, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.09157516653676925, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[DeepSeek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek) is a Chinese AI company founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng. In December 2024, the company released DeepSeek v3, an open source model with 37B active parameters that cost under \\$6 million to train. Despite its size or its training cost, v3 had incredible benchmark scores, [significantly outperforming GPT-4o 0513](https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v1#S5). DeepSeek followed this up with DeepSeek R1 in January 2025, which [appeared to be](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf) on par with OpenAI's o1.\n\nBy January 27, 2025, DeepSeek's chatbot app had surpassed ChatGPT as the most-downloaded free app on both the App Store and Google Play, leading to Nvidia's stock [dropping](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qw7z2v1pgo) more than 15%, accompanied by similar but smaller drops in the stock prices of Microsoft and Google." }, { "id": 34821, "title": "Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Farmed Birds Killed Due to Bird Flu February and March 2025?", "url_title": "Farmed Birds Killed Due to Bird Flu February and March 2025?", "slug": "farmed-birds-killed-due-to-bird-flu-february-and-march-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-05T00:48:25.575431Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T13:59:03.385517Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.018789Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-10T13:59:03.385515Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-21T15:16:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 577, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34317, "title": "Will more than 15 million farmed birds be affected (depopulated or killed) in the United States due to bird flu from February 15, 2025 to March 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-02-05T00:48:25.576037Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-21T15:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-21T15:16:41.536525Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nIn February 2022, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak [was detected](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/avian-timeline/2020s.html#:~:text=In%20February%202022%2C%20USDA/APHIS%20announced%C2%A0an%C2%A0HPAI%20H5N1%20outbreak%20in%20turkeys%20in%20a%20commercial%20poultry%20facility%2C%20marking%20the%20first%20HPAI%20detection%20in%20commercial%20poultry%20in%20the%20United%20States%20since%202020.) in the United States in a commercial poultry facility, the first since 2020. Since that outbreak over 120 million birds in commercial and backyard flocks have been [killed](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23963820/bird-flu-surge-us-ventilation-shutdown-veterinarians) due to the outbreak, in accordance with US policy. [According to the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza):\n\n> There is no treatment for HPAI. The only way to stop the disease is to depopulate all affected and exposed poultry.\n> \n> If your farm is ever affected by HPAI, you’ll need to know what to expect during the response process. We put together a series of materials to help you understand the steps we’ll take and your responsibilities at each stage.\n\nAs described in [another USDA publication](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/hpai-depopulation-disposal.pdf):\n\n> There are two main methods we use to depopulate HPAI-affected flocks: water-based foam for floor-raised birds and carbon dioxide gas for caged birds. These are the most humane and effective options available in an emergency situation involving mass numbers of birds. Trained personnel will arrive onsite and handle these tasks under the supervision of Federal and State animal health officials.\n> \n> If our preferred methods don’t allow us to depopulate the flock as quickly as needed—within 24 hours—we must consider other options. These may include shutting off the facility’s ventilation fans (“ventilation shutdown”). Federal and State officials will carefully evaluate your farm and work with you to figure out the best option for meeting the goal of 24-hour depopulation.\n> \n> In every case, we take the decision very seriously and weigh many factors when choosing what depopulation method to use. These include, among other things, the size and type of the animals, their behavior, and their containment/housing facilities. We also look at the number of animals in the flock, the location of the farm and environmental conditions there, disease information, and available resources and personnel.\n\nThe USDA maintains a page [tracking the number of confirmed HPAI detections](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks) in commercial and backyard flocks, as well as the number of \"Birds Affected\" in those flocks. For example, an entry in the database from November 12, 2024, describes a commercial chicken operation in Kern County California where 2.1 million birds were killed, which was also described in [other news reporting](https://thesungazette.com/article/news/2024/11/20/egg-prices-nearly-double-in-ca-as-bird-flu-spreads/).\n\nThe charts below present data from the [CDC poultry detections page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-commercial.html) which appears to use the same USDA data. **Please note that the data below may not reflect the latest numbers shown on the USDA page or the numbers that will be used to resolve the question.** The code to produce these charts can be found [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/hpai-depopulations).\n\n\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the number of farmed birds affected in the United States due to highly pathogenic avian influenza during the period from February 15, 2025, to March 15, 2025, inclusive, exceeds 15 million. The question will resolve according to the [USDA's Confirmed HPAI Detections table](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks), using the sum of \"Birds Affected\" where the \"Confirmation Date\" (the \"Confirmed\" column in the CSV) is in the period in question. The question will resolve when the data is assessed by Metaculus on March 21, 2025. Later updates or revisions to the data after the question has resolved are immaterial.", "fine_print": "* Note that this question does not ask about farmed bird deaths directly caused by avian influenza infection, and is only concerned with the \"Birds Affected\" as reported by USDA.\n* To download the data first change the time period in the data embed to \"Total Outbreak\" and the variable to \"Birds Affected\", then click the \"Choose a format to download\" button at the bottom right of the data embed and select \"data\" (if \"data\" is not a selectable option, try sorting the data table first). In the window that then appears select \"Full Data\" on the left, and then \"Download\" on the top right.\n * The same data (with some columns eliminated) can also be downloaded via [this CDC page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-commercial.html). However, in the event of discrepancies the USDA data will be used.\n* In the event there are modifications to the location of the USDA data or how the data is displayed or presented the equivalent data will be used to resolve the question, if available.\n* In the event Metaculus has reason to believe that initial figures for the full period have not been reported as of March 21, 2025 due to a lack of updates or maintenance (as opposed to later dates not being included due to a lack of recent confirmed HPAI detections), Metaculus will **annul** the question.", "post_id": 34821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741600109.029392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 573, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741600109.029392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 573, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05936875643560051 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.72574081888092, 11.066996038422156, 4.17720909741214, 0.4869942042713057, 0.7306695240651588, 2.318071827379657, 0.26969968990201865, 0.36562868341430294, 0.0029689742759701826, 1.0483375496663452, 0.10629218948118412, 0.0007275693494289442, 0.002258922142191263, 0.18468923375323243, 0.06896232684541843, 0.04249636539431474, 0.00013582788450920206, 0.0016557662622111204, 0.0002957399295219666, 0.0005256852558101154, 0.014223639065711054, 0.20664829958748404, 0.0011578103000044761, 0.0001768232580434269, 0.4462670461703549, 0.6705929989670391, 0.0006432117448869743, 9.388086322851856e-05, 0.00018602554790632262, 0.0, 0.005062452171020427, 1.4422157301519815e-06, 2.3210187814405964e-05, 0.00022259357203353842, 8.463195630190202e-05, 1.1989638857409702e-05, 0.00015234699266705569, 1.0257321556411339e-05, 0.0, 4.654908552599117e-10, 0.0008819832470992299, 1.0791041195699272e-06, 0.0001072596788002031, 4.407300351342755e-08, 0.0, 3.2445529229471694e-05, 0.00010205969235187713, 2.0032001507627448e-06, 3.054182361907186e-08, 6.273615943358924e-06, 1.10899401931322e-08, 0.00011110649157803681, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7295008213321692, 3.032251706401936e-05, 6.039313900597439e-05, 6.591662085298842e-05, 0.0, 2.4528508359460945e-05, 0.0006454835790366317, 2.9270640550925733e-05, 0.012145790189295137, 6.324214721585343e-07, 4.500529452100537e-05, 3.944121942225518e-06, 1.1759925864427317e-05, 4.354576892979647e-05, 0.0003250782333557485, 1.2057692861456005e-05, 0.19881756857202917, 4.8333849575809334e-05, 0.03274244251551941, 2.1856369943724325e-05, 1.1755873940490875e-07, 1.596528409138019e-05, 0.0, 6.998355920399441e-05, 0.2415308891281264, 1.4419985245411122e-07, 0.00010823750766433631, 1.2557283517997777e-05, 3.0800602355340754e-07, 1.354495579750093e-05, 1.0568055014314574e-05, 0.5897946032606043, 5.584915250697289e-07, 4.6634107525759e-05, 3.7569794359679696e-06, 0.0, 0.0075645348088061075, 0.0, 6.21756465921338e-06, 2.912091819043448e-07, 3.141644450918969e-09, 0.6154881419299268, 0.0, 0.0, 5.377604621918837e-05, 0.00012287857958649245 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -2.02348282658042, "peer_score": 56.25619521050786, "coverage": 0.9998145209426357, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998145209426357, "spot_peer_score": 60.28662497002025, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -2.02348282658042, "peer_archived_score": 56.25619521050786, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 60.28662497002025, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2424, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nIn February 2022, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak [was detected](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/avian-timeline/2020s.html#:~:text=In%20February%202022%2C%20USDA/APHIS%20announced%C2%A0an%C2%A0HPAI%20H5N1%20outbreak%20in%20turkeys%20in%20a%20commercial%20poultry%20facility%2C%20marking%20the%20first%20HPAI%20detection%20in%20commercial%20poultry%20in%20the%20United%20States%20since%202020.) in the United States in a commercial poultry facility, the first since 2020. Since that outbreak over 120 million birds in commercial and backyard flocks have been [killed](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23963820/bird-flu-surge-us-ventilation-shutdown-veterinarians) due to the outbreak, in accordance with US policy. [According to the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza):\n\n> There is no treatment for HPAI. The only way to stop the disease is to depopulate all affected and exposed poultry.\n> \n> If your farm is ever affected by HPAI, you’ll need to know what to expect during the response process. We put together a series of materials to help you understand the steps we’ll take and your responsibilities at each stage.\n\nAs described in [another USDA publication](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/hpai-depopulation-disposal.pdf):\n\n> There are two main methods we use to depopulate HPAI-affected flocks: water-based foam for floor-raised birds and carbon dioxide gas for caged birds. These are the most humane and effective options available in an emergency situation involving mass numbers of birds. Trained personnel will arrive onsite and handle these tasks under the supervision of Federal and State animal health officials.\n> \n> If our preferred methods don’t allow us to depopulate the flock as quickly as needed—within 24 hours—we must consider other options. These may include shutting off the facility’s ventilation fans (“ventilation shutdown”). Federal and State officials will carefully evaluate your farm and work with you to figure out the best option for meeting the goal of 24-hour depopulation.\n> \n> In every case, we take the decision very seriously and weigh many factors when choosing what depopulation method to use. These include, among other things, the size and type of the animals, their behavior, and their containment/housing facilities. We also look at the number of animals in the flock, the location of the farm and environmental conditions there, disease information, and available resources and personnel.\n\nThe USDA maintains a page [tracking the number of confirmed HPAI detections](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/commercial-backyard-flocks) in commercial and backyard flocks, as well as the number of \"Birds Affected\" in those flocks. For example, an entry in the database from November 12, 2024, describes a commercial chicken operation in Kern County California where 2.1 million birds were killed, which was also described in [other news reporting](https://thesungazette.com/article/news/2024/11/20/egg-prices-nearly-double-in-ca-as-bird-flu-spreads/).\n\nThe charts below present data from the [CDC poultry detections page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/data-map-commercial.html) which appears to use the same USDA data. **Please note that the data below may not reflect the latest numbers shown on the USDA page or the numbers that will be used to resolve the question.** The code to produce these charts can be found [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/hpai-depopulations).\n\n\n\n" }, { "id": 34775, "title": "Will the US Department of Education be dissolved before Jan. 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Dept of education gone soon?", "url_title": "Dept of education gone soon?", "slug": "dept-of-education-gone-soon", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-02-03T22:09:39.639467Z", "published_at": "2025-02-07T16:31:13.740565Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.921053Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-07T16:31:13.740563Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-08T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 34277, "title": "Will the US Department of Education be dissolved before Jan. 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-02-03T22:09:39.639866Z", "open_time": "2025-02-08T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-12T16:30:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-12T16:30:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the US Department of Education be dissolved under Trump?\n\nThe [<u>United States Department of Education (ED)</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Education) is a cabinet-level organization in the US government responsible for overseeing federal aid for education, collecting school data, highlighting key educational issues, and ensuring equal access to education. These responsibilities and others - such as encouraging the public to engage with federal education programs - were outlined in the 1979 Department of Education Organization Act. Under this law, [<u>the primary role of the department</u>](https://www.ed.gov/about/ed-overview/mission-of-the-us-department-of-education) “is to promote student achievement and preparation for global competitiveness by fostering educational excellence and ensuring equal access”. [<u>The ED was established in 1979 under then-President Jimmy Carter</u>](https://graylinedc.com/birth-united-states-department-education/), who created the agency by splitting the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare into two separate entities, the other being the Department of Health and Human Services.\n\nSince its establishment, however, the education department has faced considerable criticism. The same year the ED began operations, for example, [<u>the winning Republican Platform in 1980</u>](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/republican-party-platform-1980) “encourage\\[d] the elimination of the federal Department of Education”; [<u>Ronald Reagan stated in 1983</u>](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/31/why-republicans-have-failed-to-scrap-the-department-of-education) that the department, “should be abolished”; and [<u>in 1995, Republican-nominee hopeful Lamar Alexander vowed to abolish the agency</u>](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/31/why-republicans-have-failed-to-scrap-the-department-of-education). While Republican opposition diminished during the presidency of George W. Bush, who notably passed the No Child Left Behind Act in 2001, it has returned in recent years. [<u>The 2024 Republican Platform</u>](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform) promised “to close the Department of Education”, and [<u>Project 2025</u>](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf) - a roadmap for political action published by the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation - stated that “the federal Department of Education should be eliminated.” \n\nGiven that the results of the [<u>2024 US presidential election</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) handed President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican Party a significant mandate for change, with the Republicans winning both houses of Congress and the popular vote, the future of the Department of Education could become uncertain. For example, leading figures in the Department of Government Efficiency, a proposed advisory commission, have already floated the idea that several agencies will be dissolved. Vivek Ramaswamy, for instance, stated in response to a question regarding the ED, \"[<u>We expect certain agencies to be deleted outright.</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vivek-ramaswamy-musk-department-of-education-doge-b2648668.html)” On the other hand, individuals such as Arne Duncan - former education secretary under Barack Obama - have described Trump’s campaign pledge as, “[<u>another empty, broken promise</u>](https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5001063-obama-education-secretary-trumps-threat-to-eliminate-department-empty/).” As a result, the Department of Education’s continuation has become a point of contention and debate.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the United States has taken either of the following steps to eliminate the Department of Education:\n\n* Enacted a law that would eliminate the Department of Education.\n* Congress has granted [presidential reorganization authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_reorganization_authority) that gives the US president power to reorganize the government, with **both** of the following subsequently occurring:\n * the president has issued an order under such power to eliminate the Department of Education\n * any oversight procedures specified in the reorganization authority passed by Congress have completed (for example, if a time limit is set on Congress to nullify such presidential orders, the time limit has expired without nullification)\n\nThe law need not take effect before the specified date. The passage of any law that abolishes the Department of Education at a future date is sufficient.\n\nOtherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Whether or not programs or authorities currently under the purview of the Department of Education are transferred to other departments or a new department is immaterial. The question will resolve as **Yes** if the bill or order would eliminate the Department of Education, regardless of the amount and extent of existing programs that continue on in one form or another.\n* The merging or restructuring of the Department of Education, such that an agency named \"Department of Education\" ceases to exist, will count and resolve the question as **Yes**. For purposes of this question, a renaming of the Department of Education will be per se assumed to meet the threshold of a restructuring and will resolve the question as **Yes**. \n* Legal challenges brought or pending against the enacted law or order are immaterial, if the criteria above are met the question will resolve as **Yes**, regardless of whether it is later reversed or challenged.\n* This question requires that a bill be enacted or presidential order be issued under Congressional authority. Executive orders or other executive action (aside from signing a bill into law) are immaterial.", "post_id": 34775, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756786330.886351, "end_time": 1759566455.167, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756786330.886351, "end_time": 1759566455.167, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.36952222859709116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.1659893709142453, 0.1164748146920504, 0.39738560315786137, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.5285289123076462, 0.4918365633432093, 0.8079494144037086, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the US Department of Education be dissolved under Trump?\n\nThe [<u>United States Department of Education (ED)</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Education) is a cabinet-level organization in the US government responsible for overseeing federal aid for education, collecting school data, highlighting key educational issues, and ensuring equal access to education. These responsibilities and others - such as encouraging the public to engage with federal education programs - were outlined in the 1979 Department of Education Organization Act. Under this law, [<u>the primary role of the department</u>](https://www.ed.gov/about/ed-overview/mission-of-the-us-department-of-education) “is to promote student achievement and preparation for global competitiveness by fostering educational excellence and ensuring equal access”. [<u>The ED was established in 1979 under then-President Jimmy Carter</u>](https://graylinedc.com/birth-united-states-department-education/), who created the agency by splitting the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare into two separate entities, the other being the Department of Health and Human Services.\n\nSince its establishment, however, the education department has faced considerable criticism. The same year the ED began operations, for example, [<u>the winning Republican Platform in 1980</u>](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/republican-party-platform-1980) “encourage\\[d] the elimination of the federal Department of Education”; [<u>Ronald Reagan stated in 1983</u>](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/31/why-republicans-have-failed-to-scrap-the-department-of-education) that the department, “should be abolished”; and [<u>in 1995, Republican-nominee hopeful Lamar Alexander vowed to abolish the agency</u>](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/10/31/why-republicans-have-failed-to-scrap-the-department-of-education). While Republican opposition diminished during the presidency of George W. Bush, who notably passed the No Child Left Behind Act in 2001, it has returned in recent years. [<u>The 2024 Republican Platform</u>](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform) promised “to close the Department of Education”, and [<u>Project 2025</u>](https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf) - a roadmap for political action published by the conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation - stated that “the federal Department of Education should be eliminated.” \n\nGiven that the results of the [<u>2024 US presidential election</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) handed President-elect Donald Trump and the Republican Party a significant mandate for change, with the Republicans winning both houses of Congress and the popular vote, the future of the Department of Education could become uncertain. For example, leading figures in the Department of Government Efficiency, a proposed advisory commission, have already floated the idea that several agencies will be dissolved. Vivek Ramaswamy, for instance, stated in response to a question regarding the ED, \"[<u>We expect certain agencies to be deleted outright.</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/vivek-ramaswamy-musk-department-of-education-doge-b2648668.html)” On the other hand, individuals such as Arne Duncan - former education secretary under Barack Obama - have described Trump’s campaign pledge as, “[<u>another empty, broken promise</u>](https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5001063-obama-education-secretary-trumps-threat-to-eliminate-department-empty/).” As a result, the Department of Education’s continuation has become a point of contention and debate." } ] }
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.\n\n\n\n](http://here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/hpai-depopulations).%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn){kind=link}