Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1180
{ "count": 5898, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1160", "results": [ { "id": 34517, "title": "Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Equal Rights Amendment certified before July?", "url_title": "Equal Rights Amendment certified before July?", "slug": "equal-rights-amendment-certified-before-july", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:57:12.617155Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:50:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.307877Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:50:29Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T02:20:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34032, "title": "Will the National Archivist certify and publish the Equal Rights Amendment to the Constitution by June 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:57:12.617500Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T02:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-08T02:21:20.693327Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [<u>Equal Rights Amendment</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/equal-rights-amendment-explained) (ERA) is a proposed amendment that would prohibit sex discrimination. It was passed by Congress in 1972 and submitted to the states with a seven-year ratification deadline, later extended to three years, causing the deadline to be 1982. 35 states initially approved the amendment before the deadline passed. However, several states rescinded their ratification while others ratified the amendment after the deadline, raising questions about whether a statutory ratification deadline is constitutional and whether states can rescind ratification. In the final days of his Presidency, [<u>Joe Biden declared that the ERA was part of the Constitution</u>](https://time.com/7207834/biden-says-equal-rights-amendment-is-law-of-the-land/). However, this statement has no legal effect unless the Archivist certifies the Amendment, which they have yet to do.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the National Archivist certifies and publishes the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) to the Constitution before June 30, 2025.", "fine_print": "\\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the National Archivist officially certifies the ERA and publishes it as part of the official records, indicating that it has been added to the U.S. Constitution.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or official announcements from the National Archivist.", "post_id": 34517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751236102.287896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751236102.287896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006851302782400162 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.56914058900301, 0.2553479673667384, 0.07834200030552177, 0.0, 0.05420956858263862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.1403696431136584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11056117819897848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008556628871015935 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 99.0730302930271, "peer_score": 17.576246376794643, "coverage": 0.9947266347783718, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9947266347783718, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 99.0730302930271, "peer_archived_score": 17.576246376794643, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [<u>Equal Rights Amendment</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/equal-rights-amendment-explained) (ERA) is a proposed amendment that would prohibit sex discrimination. It was passed by Congress in 1972 and submitted to the states with a seven-year ratification deadline, later extended to three years, causing the deadline to be 1982. 35 states initially approved the amendment before the deadline passed. However, several states rescinded their ratification while others ratified the amendment after the deadline, raising questions about whether a statutory ratification deadline is constitutional and whether states can rescind ratification. In the final days of his Presidency, [<u>Joe Biden declared that the ERA was part of the Constitution</u>](https://time.com/7207834/biden-says-equal-rights-amendment-is-law-of-the-land/). However, this statement has no legal effect unless the Archivist certifies the Amendment, which they have yet to do." }, { "id": 34516, "title": "Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?", "short_title": "White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?", "url_title": "White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?", "slug": "white-house-revoke-media-credentials-for-2-outlets-in-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:54:50.335789Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:50:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:47:15.318312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:50:18Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34031, "title": "Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:54:50.336218Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "\\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n\n\\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n\n\\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.", "post_id": 34516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757724424.81383, "end_time": 1758056051.017, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757724424.81383, "end_time": 1758056051.017, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6755698720063696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8025193615105249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1314375106214734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.0, 0.21434285407485848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429368094000161, 0.0, 1.0345114370362007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06050086571808722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3313188641560909, 0.5049957670217226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05573608253142087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 2.9625497093164803, 0.0, 0.10669430773056678, 0.6142403339756757, 0.0, 1.5507604639809158, 0.0, 0.6772802422331003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05615632953395877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.5590720603224366 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 361, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). " }, { "id": 34515, "title": "Will Elizabeth MacDonough, the current Senate parliamentarian, be removed or resign by June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "MacDonough to leave Senate parliamentarian role before July?", "url_title": "MacDonough to leave Senate parliamentarian role before July?", "slug": "macdonough-to-leave-senate-parliamentarian-role-before-july", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:53:10.373900Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:50:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.543607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:50:07Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. 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They serve at the discretion of the majority party of the Senate, and in recent years have played an increasingly important role ruling on what items can be included in budget reconciliation legislation under the Byrd Rule. Major pieces of legislation passed through the budget reconciliation process in recent years include the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Critically, however, the decisions made by the Senate Parliamentarian can be ignored and the Senate Parliamentarian may be removed and replaced by the Senate majority. The current Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has held the position since 2012.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the current Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has been removed from office or resigned before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "\\- This question will resolve to Yes only if there is [<u>credible</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) and verifiable reporting from reputable sources confirming that Elizabeth MacDonough has either:\n\n1\\) Resigned from her position as Senate parliamentarian, or\n\n2\\) Been formally removed from the role, or\n\n3\\) Lost her role because it has been abolished.\n\n\\- A resignation or removal must be official and publicly announced by credible sources such as the Senate, the White House, or other government representatives.\n\n\\- If Elizabeth MacDonough temporarily steps down or is temporarily replaced but later returns to the role, the question will resolve as No. If she is not holding office on the resolution date, regardless of whether the intent is for a temporary absence, this question will resolve as Yes. If the position is abolished while she is the holder, the question will resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 34515, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751302497.312303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751302497.312303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09333511192796125 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6342300327040753, 2.5768357985325956, 1.363210053415529, 0.8935164782039182, 0.6014970436190621, 3.0918101965658527, 0.6441697866193615, 1.1313573054997876, 0.2589276349598383, 1.1505622735224357, 0.7396816750260783, 0.026507746979498387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08269306736429409, 0.0, 0.011771994051702078, 0.09014106143208118, 0.06303271481606981, 0.18437835283876403, 0.0, 0.021416918649247395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01352731712145787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060389508477850925, 0.009237422463571529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06270616419322582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6949662297554562 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.99239184537353, "peer_score": 11.932695744583645, "coverage": 0.9972560752692624, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9972560752692624, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 84.99239184537353, "peer_archived_score": 11.932695744583645, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 234, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[<u>The Senate Parliamentarian</u>](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/who-is-the-senate-parliamentarian-and-what-does-she-do) is an unelected official who acts as a non-partisan arbiter of the US Senate's chamber procedures. They serve at the discretion of the majority party of the Senate, and in recent years have played an increasingly important role ruling on what items can be included in budget reconciliation legislation under the Byrd Rule. Major pieces of legislation passed through the budget reconciliation process in recent years include the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Critically, however, the decisions made by the Senate Parliamentarian can be ignored and the Senate Parliamentarian may be removed and replaced by the Senate majority. The current Senate Parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, has held the position since 2012." }, { "id": 34514, "title": "Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?", "short_title": "DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?", "url_title": "DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?", "slug": "doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:51:07.196253Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T18:56:13.443072Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:56Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34029, "title": "Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T18:51:07.196725Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n\n\\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n\n\\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n\n-Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.", "fine_print": "\\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n\n\\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n\n\\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 34514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757876162.556293, "end_time": 1758054965.179, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757876162.556293, "end_time": 1758054965.179, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3908542023353703 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7057676323246797, 0.2596374021764951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017741576519297485, 0.23873778929343153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49025694658789754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3455436301131188, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1462957657137167, 0.0, 0.9708203928178996, 0.9131363790839516, 0.5520045269366577, 0.007454186295369823, 0.08633762966036197, 1.715755275802914, 0.02713823006833058, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.09551526241989404, 0.9465628058651026, 0.03974132889310917, 0.03513810136237429, 1.0, 0.45337725660330125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14039373355087437, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4157158142462114, 0.03888896925367625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006021606162473711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07008451076222237, 0.1278411749500892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5677130138662033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05898816390614976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6639279801494866 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 357, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises." }, { "id": 34512, "title": "Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?", "short_title": "Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?", "url_title": "Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?", "slug": "trump-to-invoke-insurrection-act-in-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:45:12.057147Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T22:31:09.622729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:46Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34027, "title": "Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:45:12.057486Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "\\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 34512, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757889058.774496, "end_time": 1758096210.144, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757889058.774496, "end_time": 1758096210.144, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.13409544687672764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.08633762966036197, 0.020560827046404485, 0.0, 0.03974132889310917, 0.7972658034199205, 1.1215124787142032, 0.0, 0.4890846737037814, 0.541410681681518, 0.0, 2.640535591114904, 0.9445054216181112, 0.9623504818577451, 0.21925555021421456, 1.7469112972188827, 0.43871601884346023, 0.03513810136237429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.95933518570701, 0.0, 0.10545724016089074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2011093313353233, 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19942584780932723, 0.0, 0.5154195291925695, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010888565211072518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 499, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used." }, { "id": 34511, "title": "Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?", "short_title": "Trump to adjourn Congress in 2025?", "url_title": "Trump to adjourn Congress in 2025?", "slug": "trump-to-adjourn-congress-in-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:39:05.670177Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T18:57:37.058327Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:34Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34026, "title": "Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:39:05.670513Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[<u>Article II, Section 3</u>](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/section-3/) of the Constitution stipulates that the President has the authority to adjourn Congress in the event of a dispute over the time of adjournment. Because this power has not been employed before, the specifics of its use are not fully clear.\n\nPresident Trump has suggested that he [<u>might employ the adjournment power for the purpose of making recess appointments</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-senate-recess-appointments-new-leader/), circumventing the traditional process of Senate confirmation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked his constitutional authority to adjourn the United States Congress before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "\\- “Adjourn” refers to the formal discontinuation of a session of Congress, as defined in Article II, Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution. “Invoke” means Trump formally orders or declares an adjournment under Article II, Section 3 in an official White House document or statement. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the adjournment power would not qualify. \n\n\\- If President Trump has not formally adjourned Congress before January 1, 2026, Metaculus will resolve this question as No based on information published by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 34511, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757876246.342655, "end_time": 1758055942.28, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757876246.342655, "end_time": 1758055942.28, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.034951494151300624 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29816488454070444, 2.441459295635501, 4.944910804054546, 1.283195290466828, 1.1305306845062444, 0.5077140566134722, 0.08182097350614802, 0.05548779491047209, 0.8585512680100754, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12864818019422197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 283, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[<u>Article II, Section 3</u>](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/section-3/) of the Constitution stipulates that the President has the authority to adjourn Congress in the event of a dispute over the time of adjournment. Because this power has not been employed before, the specifics of its use are not fully clear.\n\nPresident Trump has suggested that he [<u>might employ the adjournment power for the purpose of making recess appointments</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-senate-recess-appointments-new-leader/), circumventing the traditional process of Senate confirmation." }, { "id": 34509, "title": "Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?", "short_title": "FOIA exemption for department or agency in 2025?", "url_title": "FOIA exemption for department or agency in 2025?", "slug": "foia-exemption-for-department-or-agency-in-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:34:20.779544Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:45:58.587021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:22Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34025, "title": "Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department, the CIA, or EPA from the Freedom of Information Act?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:34:20.779877Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "FOIA (5 U.S.C. § 552)\n\nThe [<u>Freedom of Information Act </u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Freedom_of_Information_Act)(FOIA) was passed in 1967 to increase government transparency. It requires that, upon request, the U.S. Government and its agencies disclose previously unavailable non-classified information. Journalists and citizen groups have consistently relied on the FOIA to expose government misconduct. For example, activists discovered in the 1980s that the Environmental Protection Agency knew that paper mills were polluting toxic waste into rivers. In 2016, President Obama signed an update to the bill that sought to create greater transparency. The update undid initial exemptions for information about the deliberation of government agencies. It also mandated government agencies to prefer openness when receiving an FOIA request (\"presumption of disclosure\").", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least one chamber of Congress (House of Representatives or Senate) has approved legislation that partially or fully exempts at least one executive branch department or agency listed in the Fine Print from the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).", "fine_print": "\\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the legislation explicitly exempts at least one executive branch agency or department on our specified list of 17 from FOIA ([<u>5 U.S.C. § 552</u>](https://www.justice.gov/oip/freedom-information-act-5-usc-552)), either in full or in part. This includes new legal exemptions or changes to existing exemptions that limit the applicability of FOIA to specific agencies or departments.\n\n\\- Our list of executive branch agencies and departments is the following: Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of Defense, Department of Education, Department of Energy, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Department of the Interior, Department of Justice, Department of Labor, Department of State, Department of Transportation, Department of the Treasury, Department of Veterans Affairs, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).\n\n\\- The legislation does not need to become law (i.e., it does not require passage by both chambers or the President’s signature) for this question to resolve as Yes.\n\n\\- Amendments to existing laws that add restrictions or requirements will qualify if they meet the above criteria.", "post_id": 34509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757724348.145113, "end_time": 1758055856.439, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757724348.145113, "end_time": 1758055856.439, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10004959760874281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.115269369020162, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2868047456086598, 2.395097031862111, 0.060957830206119154, 2.6357985252835947, 1.3351414102851633, 0.0, 2.2176479479269813, 0.07964779781950536, 0.5074009424317217, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02802391257647418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16418966961263595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2991016446417691 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "FOIA (5 U.S.C. § 552)\n\nThe [<u>Freedom of Information Act </u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Freedom_of_Information_Act)(FOIA) was passed in 1967 to increase government transparency. It requires that, upon request, the U.S. Government and its agencies disclose previously unavailable non-classified information. Journalists and citizen groups have consistently relied on the FOIA to expose government misconduct. For example, activists discovered in the 1980s that the Environmental Protection Agency knew that paper mills were polluting toxic waste into rivers. In 2016, President Obama signed an update to the bill that sought to create greater transparency. The update undid initial exemptions for information about the deliberation of government agencies. It also mandated government agencies to prefer openness when receiving an FOIA request (\"presumption of disclosure\")." }, { "id": 34508, "title": "Will legislation be approved by at least one chamber of Congress in 2025 that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections?", "short_title": "Congress to approve new voting restrictions in 2025?", "url_title": "Congress to approve new voting restrictions in 2025?", "slug": "congress-to-approve-new-voting-restrictions-in-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T15:10:19.707448Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.884730Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:49:09Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-10T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-10T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. 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[<u>Regulations differ by state</u>](https://www.usa.gov/voting-laws), as some require voters to provide a valid excuse for submitting an absentee ballot, while others allow voters to submit mail-in ballots even if they could be present on Election Day. Voters can return these ballots in person or by mail. Voter registration procedures vary by state. Some states have same-day registration, online registration, mail-in registration, and/or in-person registration.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2026, [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least one chamber of the United States Congress (House of Representatives or Senate) has approved legislation that places new rules, limits, or requirements on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in federal elections.", "fine_print": "-This question will resolve to Yes only if the legislation explicitly introduces new rules, limits, or requirements affecting early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration for federal elections. General election reform measures that do not specifically address these areas will not qualify.\n\n-The legislation does not need to become law (i.e., it does not require passage by both chambers or the President’s signature) for this question to resolve as Yes.\n\n-Amendments to existing laws that add restrictions or requirements will qualify if they meet the above criteria.", "post_id": 34508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744070943.897365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744070943.897365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8077593016551647 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009247748063936412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10482768695740607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003138745684197452, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4543454582350361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06663686154666806, 0.0, 0.0960250916311845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591489804171636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026223454560143997, 0.31843229548924823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038854741463503957, 0.5964945187819407, 0.029367576745184032, 0.7317095179665276, 0.0, 1.5930341483466872, 0.0, 0.3897531828826598, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 3.2037291599359565, 0.03279680079640044, 1.8960748521099604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218599748961071, 0.1593582125642477, 0.060576540743882155, 0.0, 0.23632165058305657, 1.4566428660401192, 0.6375225916282348, 0.0, 0.16625794312874506, 0.0, 0.29146540260578535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.007571747891352 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.341226858490757, "peer_score": 2.463097157584309, "coverage": 0.20302891569546622, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9938615530094171, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 13.341226858490757, "peer_archived_score": 2.463097157584309, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently, absentee voting is the process of voting via a mail-in ballot before Election Day. 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Some states have same-day registration, online registration, mail-in registration, and/or in-person registration." }, { "id": 34507, "title": "Will Kash Patel be confirmed by the Senate as FBI Director by June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Kash Patel FBI Director by June 2025?", "url_title": "Kash Patel FBI Director by June 2025?", "slug": "kash-patel-fbi-director-by-june-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:57:52.627562Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:48:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.531016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:48:58Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-20T13:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-20T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. 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Mr. Patel has been a vocal critic of the FBI and its investigative practices.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the US Senate has confirmed Kash Patel as Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "\\- This question will resolve to Yes only if Kash Patel is officially confirmed by the Senate as Director of the FBI, as defined under U.S. law ([<u>28 U.S.C. § 532</u>](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-2023-title28-section532\\&num=0\\&edition=2023)).\n\n\\- The confirmation must be completed on or before June 30, 2025, Eastern Time.\n\n\\- If the nomination is withdrawn, delayed beyond June 30, 2025, or Patel assumes the role without Senate confirmation (e.g., only as acting director), this question will resolve to No.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 34507, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741209555.886652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741209555.886652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.970841443944987 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0010303164300238567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006190506525619948, 0.0, 0.26517135135016334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06041068685125587, 0.0, 0.12908693797700882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16905272713831734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2193406282932918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024180497307793418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015050157310024152, 0.13821983905390708, 0.0, 0.0017867105110732713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024522378510598753, 0.24904414230524893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.0, 0.23307004192007116, 0.0005027948894301332, 0.0, 0.3673011480768568, 15.309553835487856 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.142339995948719, "peer_score": 2.5097338148509176, "coverage": 0.12843232594406956, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9793445631681256, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 12.142339995948719, "peer_archived_score": 2.5097338148509176, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "28 USC 532: Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation\n\nPresident Trump's nomination of close ally Kash Patel to be FBI director has sparked a [<u>significant amount of controversy</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kash-patel-to-face-confirmation-hearing-fbi-donald-trump-ally/). Mr. Patel has been a vocal critic of the FBI and its investigative practices." }, { "id": 34506, "title": "Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?", "short_title": "Eight or more acting heads of executive departments in 2026?", "url_title": "Eight or more acting heads of executive departments in 2026?", "slug": "eight-or-more-acting-heads-of-executive-departments-in-2026", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:54:18.954045Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:48:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T21:43:28.394463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:48:40Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34022, "title": "Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:54:18.954491Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "5 U.S. Code § 101 - Executive departments | U.S. Code | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute\n\nThere are 15 executive departments, all headed by a Cabinet Secretary nominated by the President and requiring Senate confirmation. As of 1/29/25, [<u>six of President Trump's fifteen nominees have been confirmed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/29/us/politics/trump-cabinet-confirmations-tracker.html), including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Many have yet to be scheduled for votes. Furthermore, during the first Trump administration, there was a [<u>high degree of turnover</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) resulting in many departments being headed by leaders in active roles.", "resolution_criteria": "-This question will resolve to a Yes only if at least eight of the fifteen individuals holding the positions of Secretary for the executive departments (as defined in [<u>5 U.S.C. § 101</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/101)) are officially designated as 'acting' and not confirmed by the Senate or permanently appointed by that date.\n\n\\- For this question, the executive departments include State, Treasury, Defense, Justice, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.\n\n\\- If an individual is simultaneously serving in an acting role while also nominated but not yet confirmed, they will still be considered 'acting' for the purpose of this question.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time.", "fine_print": "-This question will resolve to a Yes only if at least eight of the fifteen individuals holding the positions of Secretary for the executive departments (as defined in [<u>5 U.S.C. § 101</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/101)) are officially designated as 'acting' and not confirmed by the Senate or permanently appointed by that date.\n\n\\- For this question, the executive departments include State, Treasury, Defense, Justice, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.\n\n\\- If an individual is simultaneously serving in an acting role while also nominated but not yet confirmed, they will still be considered 'acting' for the purpose of this question.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time.", "post_id": 34506, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757886197.930644, "end_time": 1757969022.288, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757886197.930644, "end_time": 1757969022.288, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07748341064184464 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8332794110127462, 1.678774381733192, 0.561101776449919, 1.2197420398701209, 1.358370759896038, 3.5623663105576293, 0.6859677313757875, 0.2978686829232104, 0.4250357744431733, 0.6603562407761203, 0.2809769351121748, 0.2124488166765956, 0.01895802933139185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.01744285986675472, 0.0, 0.09905073698188505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.012491892736397447, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14666562708809194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 398, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "5 U.S. Code § 101 - Executive departments | U.S. Code | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute\n\nThere are 15 executive departments, all headed by a Cabinet Secretary nominated by the President and requiring Senate confirmation. As of 1/29/25, [<u>six of President Trump's fifteen nominees have been confirmed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/29/us/politics/trump-cabinet-confirmations-tracker.html), including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Many have yet to be scheduled for votes. Furthermore, during the first Trump administration, there was a [<u>high degree of turnover</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) resulting in many departments being headed by leaders in active roles." }, { "id": 34505, "title": "Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump to violate Impoundment Control Act by FY 2025?", "url_title": "Trump to violate Impoundment Control Act by FY 2025?", "slug": "trump-to-violate-impoundment-control-act-by-fy-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:40:28.270696Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:48:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T12:31:17.100439Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:48:16Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34021, "title": "Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:40:28.271157Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Impoundment Control Act: [https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim)\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Impoundment Control Act (ICA) was passed in 1974</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974) in response to the impoundment (or withholding) of congressionally allocated funds to programs that then-President Nixon opposed. It requires the President to disclose a formal intent to impound funds, at which point Congress has a brief period to vote to condone the impoundment. If the vote fails (or Congress doesn't vote), the Act requires the President to make the funding available.\n\n\n\nRecently, President Trump issued an executive order to [<u>pause up to \\$3 trillion in federal grants and loans</u>](https://time.com/7210782/trump-freezes-federal-aid-impoundment/), aiming to review and potentially eliminate certain initiatives. This action has led to legal challenges, with critics arguing that it violates the ICA by withholding funds for policy reasons not authorized under the Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a federal judge issues a decision finding the Trump administration in violation of the Impoundment Control Act (2 U.S.C. §§ 681–688) for attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds before September 30, 2025.", "fine_print": "\\- The violation must be formally determined in a judicial decision by a federal court before the end of the 2025 fiscal year (September 27, 2025). Preliminary injunctions and temporary restraining orders do not qualify. The resolution of this question will not be affected by subsequent appeals.\n\n\\- The ruling must be publicly available and reported by credible legal or governmental sources.\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on court rulings issued on or before September 27, 2025, Eastern Time, based on information and reporting available via standard web searches.", "post_id": 34505, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757853066.510361, "end_time": 1758558043.8, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757853066.510361, "end_time": 1758558043.8, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0431846752463763 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5418621409716646, 1.0536663463017213, 3.1349148863067837, 3.7866255380573888, 0.2473710650506747, 1.698405395720875, 0.4766341858277503, 0.0, 0.26969150866663705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03806556990920311, 0.0, 0.1061981125451795, 0.0, 0.061881780206469506, 0.055089962873426206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025290490754560285, 0.06930124042864184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018701514513498173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021822720259255364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.03338091191999331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040290314883579315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013393291873889481, 0.02330689590846962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 447, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Impoundment Control Act: [https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title2/chapter17B\\&edition=prelim)\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Impoundment Control Act (ICA) was passed in 1974</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974) in response to the impoundment (or withholding) of congressionally allocated funds to programs that then-President Nixon opposed. It requires the President to disclose a formal intent to impound funds, at which point Congress has a brief period to vote to condone the impoundment. If the vote fails (or Congress doesn't vote), the Act requires the President to make the funding available.\n\n\n\nRecently, President Trump issued an executive order to [<u>pause up to \\$3 trillion in federal grants and loans</u>](https://time.com/7210782/trump-freezes-federal-aid-impoundment/), aiming to review and potentially eliminate certain initiatives. This action has led to legal challenges, with critics arguing that it violates the ICA by withholding funds for policy reasons not authorized under the Act." }, { "id": 34504, "title": "Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?", "short_title": "Customs duties revenue increase to $160 billion in 2026?", "url_title": "Customs duties revenue increase to $160 billion in 2026?", "slug": "customs-duties-revenue-increase-to-160-billion-in-2026", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:27:55.770195Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:47:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T23:45:03.722268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:47:51Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-27T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34020, "title": "Will customs duties revenue to the federal government increase from $80 billion in fiscal year 2023 to $160 billion in fiscal year 2026 (in 2023 dollars)?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:27:55.770600Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-27T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-09-27T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly expressed a desire to implement tariffs on a wide range of countries, including [<u>U.S. trade competitors</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585), [<u>partners, and allies</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542). As of January 24, 2025, [<u>President Trump announced his plan to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% tariffs on China by February 1, 2025</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-is-discussing-10-tariff-china-feb-1-2025-01-21/). It remains to be seen, however, the extent to which potential tariffs mentioned during President Trump's campaign and first days in office will materialize into a significant aspect of U.S. international economic policy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the U.S. Treasury Department in its [Combined Statement](https://fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/combined-statement/current.html) or the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that customs duties revenue to the federal government is at least \\$160 billion in fiscal year 2026.", "fine_print": "\\- This question will resolve to a Yes only if revenue reaches or exceeds \\$160 billion in constant 2023 dollars, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index (CPI).\n\n\\- Fiscal year 2026 is defined as the period from September 28, 2025, to September 26, 2026. (Please note that this definition is provided for convenience, and If the US government's FY 2026 ends on a different date, then that will be used, provided that September 26, 2026 is encompassed within that FY.)\n\n\\- Metaculus will resolve this question prioritizing information from the U.S. Treasury Department, then the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), then any other [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2027, Eastern Time.", "post_id": 34504, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757893493.338071, "end_time": 1759628607.479, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757893493.338071, "end_time": 1759628607.479, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.9054027570567691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0026632629625951768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043585567180650105, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31965093010489054, 0.013197088104220753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9300205187794963, 0.10669430773056678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19462111545643215, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3830717741738767, 0.0, 1.7339048124360306, 0.3952632697996375, 1.486774417384611, 1.5905289336363002, 0.21373070951070156, 1.8735892385286057, 0.9214873039466149, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.6279294701132982 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 368, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly expressed a desire to implement tariffs on a wide range of countries, including [<u>U.S. trade competitors</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585), [<u>partners, and allies</u>](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542). As of January 24, 2025, [<u>President Trump announced his plan to implement 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as well as 10% tariffs on China by February 1, 2025</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-is-discussing-10-tariff-china-feb-1-2025-01-21/). It remains to be seen, however, the extent to which potential tariffs mentioned during President Trump's campaign and first days in office will materialize into a significant aspect of U.S. international economic policy." }, { "id": 34503, "title": "Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn or rejected before July?", "url_title": "Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn or rejected before July?", "slug": "trump-cabinet-nominee-withdrawn-or-rejected-before-july", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:23:05.415261Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T20:46:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.830692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-31T20:46:29Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-27T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-27T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 197, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34019, "title": "Will at least one announced Trump Cabinet nominee other than Matt Gaetz be withdrawn or rejected by the Senate before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-31T14:23:05.415661Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T20:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T20:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T20:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-27T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T11:04:21.251932Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-27T16:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of January 26, 2025, there are 18 Cabinet positions that are open and subject to Senate confirmation. Just 3 of President Trump's 21 Cabinet nominees have been voted on by the Senate so far - [<u>Marco Rubio has been confirmed as Secretary of State</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-confirms-marco-rubio-secretary-state-voting-continues-2025-01-20/), [<u>Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hegseth-narrowly-wins-confirmation-become-us-defense-secretary-2025-01-25/), and [<u>Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kristi-noem-confirmed-by-us-senate-trumps-homeland-secretary-2025-01-25/). Typically, Cabinet nominees who are not likely to receive majority confirmation by the Senate are withdrawn prior to the vote.\n\n\n\nThe current nominees are listed on this site: [<u>White House Cabinet List</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2025, [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report at least one of Donald Trump's Cabinet nominees is withdrawn or fails to receive majority confirmation by the Senate. If all nominees are confirmed before July 1, 2025, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "\\- If a nominee withdraws themself, this question will resolve to a Yes.\n\n\\- Individuals will be considered as nominated for a Cabinet position if their nomination was officially announced by President Trump according to credible sources, including the official White House list of Cabinet nominees: [<u>Official White House list of Cabinet nominees</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet/).", "post_id": 34503, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743073213.373371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743073213.373371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 192, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08672319315251917 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.2052123535997845, 6.769772920228171, 5.218522229036964, 1.0448257737467752, 4.084009371115348, 1.1346373533186431, 0.3007528510815429, 0.03970569511431692, 0.007813235938440473, 0.3026831970324734, 0.4434911990124618, 0.04930506286303955, 0.03348780895111231, 0.00811987497600146, 0.03612562947823609, 0.041718757453779426, 0.0034442342128375505, 0.002687476775185212, 0.0008467742079468518, 0.04161360139596964, 0.004648897955389757, 0.0, 0.12092785022150604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013517465972966677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001045347819065672, 0.0, 0.0022422521930761646, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0478116072579406e-05, 0.0, 0.02845208294217518, 0.058775041270099235, 0.002080263495668408, 0.0, 0.0017068739395755086, 0.0012126126502953706, 0.0065739159159020994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006263095864026362, 4.615879161260245e-05, 0.0, 0.0436042277847783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021792747461410154, 3.948428532128918e-06, 0.11628554127636638, 0.0, 0.0858930630332506, 7.792110190341928e-05, 0.07886573475053482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011710108305132889, 0.005203283712728742, 0.011517752899371183, 0.0, 0.015535008375718697, 0.0, 0.00452443696465471, 0.0, 0.14473164024265597, 0.15892834923723317, 0.02824786704845925, 0.001066582624417123, 0.5360994246231462, 0.0, 0.00012877717470977616, 0.06317269240083076, 0.007543997042403562, 0.46795680901927383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0051400714169678305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038086783315279114, 0.0003270313350864077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.065990299490474, 0.0, 0.0077783856637826995, 0.008705887545631091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019068192381946933, 0.0, 0.0, 7.092969607931237e-06, 0.30712738360043873 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -106.87979455568258, "peer_score": -36.16888573960661, "coverage": 0.36233074017117534, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9935931009739248, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -106.87979455568258, "peer_archived_score": -36.16888573960661, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 592, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of January 26, 2025, there are 18 Cabinet positions that are open and subject to Senate confirmation. Just 3 of President Trump's 21 Cabinet nominees have been voted on by the Senate so far - [<u>Marco Rubio has been confirmed as Secretary of State</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-confirms-marco-rubio-secretary-state-voting-continues-2025-01-20/), [<u>Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/hegseth-narrowly-wins-confirmation-become-us-defense-secretary-2025-01-25/), and [<u>Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kristi-noem-confirmed-by-us-senate-trumps-homeland-secretary-2025-01-25/). Typically, Cabinet nominees who are not likely to receive majority confirmation by the Senate are withdrawn prior to the vote.\n\n\n\nThe current nominees are listed on this site: [<u>White House Cabinet List</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/the-cabinet/)" }, { "id": 34495, "title": "Will one UN member state recognize Kurdistan before 2036?", "short_title": "Will one UN member recognize Kurdistan before 2036?", "url_title": "Will one UN member recognize Kurdistan before 2036?", "slug": "will-one-un-member-recognize-kurdistan-before-2036", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-30T11:32:13.159039Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T21:59:27.068984Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.486135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-11T21:59:27.068982Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-14T21:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34016, "title": "Will one UN member state recognize Kurdistan before 2036?", "created_at": "2025-01-30T11:32:13.159379Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T21:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T21:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kurdish people in the Middle East number between [20 million](https://rpl.hds.harvard.edu/faq/kurds-turkey) and [43 million](https://www.institutkurde.org/en/info/the-kurdish-population-1232551004), with an additional [1-2 million diaspora](https://thekurdishproject.org/kurdistan-map/kurdish-diaspora/). This makes them among the largest ethnicities without a sovereign state. Most Kurds live in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, as shown in this map ([source](https://www.britannica.com/place/Kurdistan)):\n\n\n\nIn 1946 the Soviet Union created [a short-lived Kurdish state centered around the Iranian city of Mahabad](https://kurdishpeople.org/kurdistan-republic-mahabad/), but it was absorbed by Iran before the end of that year. As of 2025, Kurds have limited self-rule in Iraq and Syria:\n\n* In Iraq, [the Kurdistan Regional Government was formed in 1992](https://us.gov.krd/en/about-kurdistan/history-of-the-krg/) and, the Ba'ath-led government of Saddam Hussein having fallen in 2003, [convened its first parliament in 2005](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kurd#ref284088). During the conflicts with the Islamic State (ISIL) starting in 2014, battlefield successes by Kurdish [peshmerga](https://thekurdishproject.org/history-and-culture/kurdish-nationalism/kurdish-peshmerga/) won international recognition ([example](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/637258/carter-kurdish-peshmerga-forces-vital-to-speed-isils-defeat/)) In a 2017 referendum, over 90% of Iraqi Kurds voted for independence, but the opposition from the governments of Iraq, Iran, and Turkey blocked any practical move toward sovereignty.\n* In the wake of the Syrian Civil War, Kurds in the Kurdish-majority northeastern regions of Syria [declared autonomy in 2012](https://rojavainformationcenter.org/background/key-facts/); the region now called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) has been effectively independent since then. The military of AANES is a coalition of local armed groups called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the Kurdish YPG \"[are the strongest fighting component and constitute the military leadership.](https://euaa.europa.eu/country-guidance-syria-2024/33-syrian-democratic-forces-and-asayish)\" Like the peshmerga in Iraq, the YPG-led SDF played an important role in the war against ISIL.\n\nIn Turkey, where Kurds make up about 18% of the population, the separatist [Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kurdistan-Workers-Party) and the Turkish government have been engaged in on-again off-again warfare since the 1970s. The PKK are designated as terrorists by Turkey, [the United States](https://www.dni.gov/nctc/terrorist_groups/pkk.html), [Australia](https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/what-australia-is-doing/terrorist-organisations/listed-terrorist-organisations/kurdistan-workers-party-pkk), and other countries. Turkey's repeated incursions into Iraq and Syria are motivated chiefly by concerns about Kurdish separatism. Iran has also occasionally launched missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan ([2022](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/13/no-us-military-casualties-after-attack-in-erbil-iraq-us-official.html?msockid=28369da2f13f693913238ee5f05968b8), [2024](https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/150120241)).\n\nAlso on Metaculus is this closed question: [Will any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/)", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if, prior to 2036, any member state of the United Nations recognizes Kurdistan as a sovereign state.\n\nResolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "\"UN member state\" means full member; observers don't count.\n\nPartial is OK: **Yes** resolution does not require that the territory of Kurdistan include all land now or historically inhabited mainly by Kurdish people. For example, if Iraqi Kurdistan becomes independent and is recognized by a UN member, the question will resolve **Yes** even if Kurdish regions of Turkey, Syria, and Iran are not included.\n\nDifferent name is OK: **Yes** resolution does not require that the country's official name be \"Kurdistan.\" If credible sources say the country is a Kurdish homeland, the question will resolve **Yes** even if the name is \"Republic of North and East Syria\" or \"Zagrosia\" etc.", "post_id": 34495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754391102.27728, "end_time": 1773976562.764657, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754391102.27728, "end_time": 1773976562.764657, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.150641117078267 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kurdish people in the Middle East number between [20 million](https://rpl.hds.harvard.edu/faq/kurds-turkey) and [43 million](https://www.institutkurde.org/en/info/the-kurdish-population-1232551004), with an additional [1-2 million diaspora](https://thekurdishproject.org/kurdistan-map/kurdish-diaspora/). This makes them among the largest ethnicities without a sovereign state. Most Kurds live in Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, as shown in this map ([source](https://www.britannica.com/place/Kurdistan)):\n\n\n\nIn 1946 the Soviet Union created [a short-lived Kurdish state centered around the Iranian city of Mahabad](https://kurdishpeople.org/kurdistan-republic-mahabad/), but it was absorbed by Iran before the end of that year. As of 2025, Kurds have limited self-rule in Iraq and Syria:\n\n* In Iraq, [the Kurdistan Regional Government was formed in 1992](https://us.gov.krd/en/about-kurdistan/history-of-the-krg/) and, the Ba'ath-led government of Saddam Hussein having fallen in 2003, [convened its first parliament in 2005](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kurd#ref284088). During the conflicts with the Islamic State (ISIL) starting in 2014, battlefield successes by Kurdish [peshmerga](https://thekurdishproject.org/history-and-culture/kurdish-nationalism/kurdish-peshmerga/) won international recognition ([example](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/637258/carter-kurdish-peshmerga-forces-vital-to-speed-isils-defeat/)) In a 2017 referendum, over 90% of Iraqi Kurds voted for independence, but the opposition from the governments of Iraq, Iran, and Turkey blocked any practical move toward sovereignty.\n* In the wake of the Syrian Civil War, Kurds in the Kurdish-majority northeastern regions of Syria [declared autonomy in 2012](https://rojavainformationcenter.org/background/key-facts/); the region now called the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) has been effectively independent since then. The military of AANES is a coalition of local armed groups called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the Kurdish YPG \"[are the strongest fighting component and constitute the military leadership.](https://euaa.europa.eu/country-guidance-syria-2024/33-syrian-democratic-forces-and-asayish)\" Like the peshmerga in Iraq, the YPG-led SDF played an important role in the war against ISIL.\n\nIn Turkey, where Kurds make up about 18% of the population, the separatist [Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kurdistan-Workers-Party) and the Turkish government have been engaged in on-again off-again warfare since the 1970s. The PKK are designated as terrorists by Turkey, [the United States](https://www.dni.gov/nctc/terrorist_groups/pkk.html), [Australia](https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/what-australia-is-doing/terrorist-organisations/listed-terrorist-organisations/kurdistan-workers-party-pkk), and other countries. Turkey's repeated incursions into Iraq and Syria are motivated chiefly by concerns about Kurdish separatism. Iran has also occasionally launched missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan ([2022](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/13/no-us-military-casualties-after-attack-in-erbil-iraq-us-official.html?msockid=28369da2f13f693913238ee5f05968b8), [2024](https://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/150120241)).\n\nAlso on Metaculus is this closed question: [Will any Kurdish independence movement succeed to the point of a Kurdish state being admitted as a member state of the United Nations by the beginning of 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/566/internationally-recognized-kurdish-state-by-2030/)" }, { "id": 34491, "title": "Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?", "short_title": "Tesla self-driving in Austin before July 2025?", "url_title": "Tesla self-driving in Austin before July 2025?", "slug": "tesla-self-driving-in-austin-before-july-2025", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-30T02:10:31.071050Z", "published_at": "2025-02-25T17:30:06.054535Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.557617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-25T17:30:06.054533Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T10:56:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T17:30:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34013, "title": "Will Tesla launch a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-30T02:10:31.071446Z", "open_time": "2025-02-26T17:30:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-02T17:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-02T17:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T10:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T10:59:20.969588Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 29, 2025, Elon Musk [claimed](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/29/elon-musk-claims-tesla-will-launch-a-self-driving-service-in-austin-in-june/ \"claimed\") that Tesla would roll out a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas by June 2025. Tesla has made ambitious timelines for its full self-driving ([FSD](https://www.tesla.com/autopilot \"FSD\")) technologies but has frequently [missed or delayed those goals](https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/23/regarding-fsd-robotaxis-i-dont-think-elon-musk-has-been-lying-for-a-decade/ \"missed or delayed those goals\"). Nonetheless, the company continues to invest heavily in autonomous vehicles.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, Tesla officially launches a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas according to the Tesla website, official Tesla announcements, or other credible sources.", "fine_print": "* \"Self-driving ride-hailing service\" means a commercial operation where Tesla vehicles can be booked for passenger trips within Austin, requiring no human driver in active control.\n* A safety driver on standby may still be present but they should be intended to take over only in emergencies and the system must be advertised as an autonomous or \"Full Self‑Driving\" service.\n* If the service is only accessible via a waitlist, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n* The service actually working is immaterial for the purposes of the question. If Tesla claims that they have launched a service that fulfills the criteria, this question resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 34491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748745399.423894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748745399.423894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.24428347679696386 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43545036035970563, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.49129737340348384, 0.4177035342880956, 1.5267844759432405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.720922830823939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -283.1465261486313, "peer_score": 22.78961222596952, "coverage": 0.9888569176292169, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9888569176292169, "spot_peer_score": 33.70132158067083, "spot_baseline_score": -21.75914350726266, "baseline_archived_score": -283.1465261486313, "peer_archived_score": 22.78961222596952, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.70132158067083, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -21.75914350726266 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 29, 2025, Elon Musk [claimed](https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/29/elon-musk-claims-tesla-will-launch-a-self-driving-service-in-austin-in-june/ \"claimed\") that Tesla would roll out a self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas by June 2025. Tesla has made ambitious timelines for its full self-driving ([FSD](https://www.tesla.com/autopilot \"FSD\")) technologies but has frequently [missed or delayed those goals](https://cleantechnica.com/2024/09/23/regarding-fsd-robotaxis-i-dont-think-elon-musk-has-been-lying-for-a-decade/ \"missed or delayed those goals\"). Nonetheless, the company continues to invest heavily in autonomous vehicles." }, { "id": 34490, "title": "Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "DeepSeek higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on Apr 1, 2025?", "url_title": "DeepSeek higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on Apr 1, 2025?", "slug": "deepseek-higher-than-chatgpt-on-the-appstore-on-apr-1-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-30T01:14:59.326631Z", "published_at": "2025-02-01T11:16:59.629065Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.822501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-01T11:16:59.629063Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 214, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2025 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T12:30:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-19T21:26:48.663128Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 34012, "title": "Will DeepSeek be ranked higher than ChatGPT on the AppStore on April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-30T01:14:59.327267Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T13:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T13:16:38.682572Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[DeepSeek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek) is a Chinese AI company founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng. In December 2024, the company released DeepSeek v3, an open source model with 37B active parameters that cost under \\$6 million to train. Despite its size or its training cost, v3 had incredible benchmark scores, [significantly outperforming GPT-4o 0513](https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v1#S5). DeepSeek followed this up with DeepSeek R1 in January 2025, which [appeared to be](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf) on par with OpenAI's o1.\n\nBy January 27, 2025, DeepSeek's chatbot app had surpassed ChatGPT as the most-downloaded free app on both the App Store and Google Play, leading to Nvidia's stock [dropping](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qw7z2v1pgo) more than 15%, accompanied by similar but smaller drops in the stock prices of Microsoft and Google.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [DeepSeek - AI Assistant app](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/deepseek-ai-assistant/id6737597349) is ranked higher than [ChatGPT](https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/chatgpt/id6448311069) in the [Top free iPhone Productivity Apps](https://apps.apple.com/gb/charts/iphone/productivity-apps/6007?chart=top-free) list of the AppStore when accessed by Metaculus on April 1, 2025.\n\n#### Note that this question closes early, on March 11, 2025.", "fine_print": "If ChatGPT is not present in the list but DeepSeek is, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If DeepSeek is not present but ChatGPT is, this question will resolve as **No**. If neither is present, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 34490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741659805.13472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.035 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741659805.13472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08235716358107964 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.885342743147542, 3.8642669830492706, 4.923215296870753, 3.3782500594792553, 1.3553484613922966, 0.4015309674811907, 0.5596944812646439, 0.49014378004123327, 5.832890140396013e-06, 0.2444882855536815, 0.2016001441403729, 0.0006230246242622439, 0.04465059374857219, 0.0018248507956988803, 3.797822926000906e-05, 0.0005815248278273464, 0.0011316837035266064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041632316843619616, 0.009875618751058052, 7.18156553227323e-05, 0.0, 0.00020499066222996393, 0.08103962420093279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29850112068499657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004327122871890106, 0.3432458326496351, 0.0002702172239556383, 0.0, 0.0, 4.244717922686228e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006733077488729551, 0.0, 0.0001531567345510321, 0.00022511842858739922, 0.21511122948840208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011237905376589303, 0.0, 0.22405963729327544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013036068927426007, 0.0, 0.0, 8.066951521233621e-05, 0.00012487251404047457, 0.0007269809911196391, 0.00010089067459412021, 0.0, 0.5601546202560406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1197744411087957, 0.0, 0.00018634768976915738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18250042476266368, 3.296885806848777e-05, 0.0, 9.034157469838967e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00045224512110667535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0426852035722634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09233846354946577, 0.00032247462546513775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03709619117970186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36528751416061195, 0.13683486747812026 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.54503538022831, "peer_score": 52.723639331039315, "coverage": 0.9997395325902051, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997395325902051, "spot_peer_score": 26.50476323098255, "spot_baseline_score": -28.63041851566409, "baseline_archived_score": 80.54503538022831, "peer_archived_score": 52.723639331039315, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.50476323098255, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -28.63041851566409 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 836, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[DeepSeek](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepSeek) is a Chinese AI company founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng. In December 2024, the company released DeepSeek v3, an open source model with 37B active parameters that cost under \\$6 million to train. Despite its size or its training cost, v3 had incredible benchmark scores, [significantly outperforming GPT-4o 0513](https://arxiv.org/html/2412.19437v1#S5). DeepSeek followed this up with DeepSeek R1 in January 2025, which [appeared to be](https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf) on par with OpenAI's o1.\n\nBy January 27, 2025, DeepSeek's chatbot app had surpassed ChatGPT as the most-downloaded free app on both the App Store and Google Play, leading to Nvidia's stock [dropping](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0qw7z2v1pgo) more than 15%, accompanied by similar but smaller drops in the stock prices of Microsoft and Google." }, { "id": 34456, "title": "Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?", "short_title": "US Debt Ceiling Increased Before March 17, 2025?", "url_title": "US Debt Ceiling Increased Before March 17, 2025?", "slug": "us-debt-ceiling-increased-before-march-17-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-27T20:33:52.472036Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:57.109645Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.434297Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:57.109641Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T14:19:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 913, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 33973, "title": "Will the debt ceiling be raised or suspended in the US before March 17, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-27T20:33:52.472481Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T14:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T14:32:07.737598Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-16T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#what_are_extraordinary_measures) to avoid default as long as possible.\n\nThe debt ceiling was last suspended in June 2023, but the suspension [expired in January 2025](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/business/debt-ceiling-limit-congress/index.html). On January 17, outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [notified Congress](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2798) that the Treasury had begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default, including implementing a \"debt issuance suspension period\" on certain funds the government typically invests. This suspension period was specified to persist through March 14, 2025.\n\n[According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation](https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-debt-ceiling-will-be-reinstated-on-january-1-heres-whats-at-stake/):\n\n> The extraordinary measures and cash balance typically can last up to a few months. Most recently, extraordinary measures enabled the government to continue meeting its obligations from January 2023 until lawmakers suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 as part of the [Fiscal Responsibility Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746).\n> \n> If the available options are exhausted prior to legislation being enacted to adjust the debt ceiling, the United States would default on its debt.\n\nThe brinkmanship involved in the 2023 debt ceiling suspension was a contributing factor to the US' credit rating being [downgraded](https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-lowers-us-credit-rating-to-negative-citing-large-federal-deficits/) by two credit agencies, Fitch and Moody's, later in 2023.\n\nReaching an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [could be difficult](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-ponders-raise-debt-ceiling-dozens-members-ve-always-held-rcna188824) for President Trump and Congress due to the Republicans' thin majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nFor additional resources, see a [tracker of the historical debt limit and debt subject to limit](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html) and the Congressional Research Service report [*Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do Extraordinary Measures Last?*](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12147)", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, before March 17, 2025, Eastern Time, the United States enacts a law that increases the statutory debt limit, suspends it for any period of time, or abolishes it, according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "* Any amount of increase to the debt limit qualifies.\n* Only an enacted law is sufficient. Attempts to increase, suspend, or abolish the debt limit by other means, such as by executive order, are immaterial.", "post_id": 34456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742159266.302842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 908, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742159266.302842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 908, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01909406776163687 ], "histogram": [ [ 44.15952751326118, 8.53765610732433, 1.378552368434914, 1.4222293977602254, 0.905113300866651, 0.3701431926933223, 0.086104551792063, 0.05072532278811118, 0.037327592107323726, 0.004062377224290545, 0.03340762926180281, 0.0028021871640248964, 0.06200539249762569, 0.0009652037960361101, 0.15404511548814487, 0.0028612747095457945, 0.00011100495444255992, 0.029794306572443374, 0.020280666625520007, 0.002060408133938607, 0.007414929544426336, 9.867093302218184e-06, 5.9450676435186695e-05, 5.9276735486169614e-05, 2.1782363745845994e-05, 0.06014739780260057, 8.573341162878922e-06, 7.044944001499341e-05, 7.490970499956754e-05, 0.0, 0.18785776533521437, 3.392654592768297e-05, 5.1324776099486825e-09, 2.76362082625106e-06, 2.677965339005846e-07, 0.004169960953851472, 5.094018643811986e-05, 0.00011529018628163111, 2.802562001105329e-09, 1.4576807319114256e-06, 0.012233849019999327, 1.022864321065147e-06, 0.004634617811829338, 7.055283205279752e-07, 0.0001847809769716166, 5.835186179311439e-07, 1.5136854854225753e-05, 0.7283778688062365, 0.0, 0.0, 5.977554276778088e-06, 0.013219621566511677, 0.0, 0.0, 4.945716823043786e-11, 0.011730174572321813, 0.17812086900245447, 2.2858637133871944e-05, 0.0, 7.356895820940528e-05, 0.011131177232701815, 7.142008379489024e-08, 2.699990726108554e-05, 4.759896259365401e-05, 0.003487528898370424, 0.03358912466214737, 3.7395390549006285e-10, 2.8525222862104003e-08, 1.295893887833145e-05, 9.854474783283064e-08, 0.011425007856501683, 0.012965991614889023, 2.6033899674480277e-07, 4.065823620524854e-08, 3.304871778376299e-11, 0.00012464532129472116, 3.3001489193433625e-07, 0.0004407421796216295, 3.096117679335171e-05, 3.0148016634664973e-12, 2.645310442105944e-05, 2.3708771600712713e-11, 6.549167773500083e-06, 0.0006277145750394096, 3.3785417520287157e-07, 2.829508435516378e-08, 0.06070449027452132, 1.7137818264239482e-06, 1.2535912258147194e-07, 1.716181665904159e-09, 0.0618049876818736, 0.0, 4.607739419988265e-07, 0.0, 0.002615624816602904, 3.3005594422448196e-11, 6.421521991243682e-09, 2.2722981608695937e-08, 0.0, 0.0998917950567262 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.72466572391139, "peer_score": 74.6076508307552, "coverage": 0.9997731049654859, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997731049654859, "spot_peer_score": 83.46462912000243, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 79.72466572391139, "peer_archived_score": 74.6076508307552, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 83.46462912000243, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3021, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nThe [debt limit](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling) or debt ceiling in the United States, first established in 1917, sets a limit on the amount of money the US Treasury can borrow. As the US typically borrows to pay prior obligations, reaching the debt limit also limits the ability of the Treasury to fulfill debt obligations, risking default. When the debt limit is reached the Treasury will typically undertake [extraordinary measures](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-debt-ceiling#what_are_extraordinary_measures) to avoid default as long as possible.\n\nThe debt ceiling was last suspended in June 2023, but the suspension [expired in January 2025](https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/17/business/debt-ceiling-limit-congress/index.html). On January 17, outgoing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [notified Congress](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2798) that the Treasury had begun taking extraordinary measures to avoid default, including implementing a \"debt issuance suspension period\" on certain funds the government typically invests. This suspension period was specified to persist through March 14, 2025.\n\n[According to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation](https://www.pgpf.org/article/the-debt-ceiling-will-be-reinstated-on-january-1-heres-whats-at-stake/):\n\n> The extraordinary measures and cash balance typically can last up to a few months. Most recently, extraordinary measures enabled the government to continue meeting its obligations from January 2023 until lawmakers suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 as part of the [Fiscal Responsibility Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3746).\n> \n> If the available options are exhausted prior to legislation being enacted to adjust the debt ceiling, the United States would default on its debt.\n\nThe brinkmanship involved in the 2023 debt ceiling suspension was a contributing factor to the US' credit rating being [downgraded](https://www.pgpf.org/article/moodys-lowers-us-credit-rating-to-negative-citing-large-federal-deficits/) by two credit agencies, Fitch and Moody's, later in 2023.\n\nReaching an agreement to raise or suspend the debt ceiling [could be difficult](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-ponders-raise-debt-ceiling-dozens-members-ve-always-held-rcna188824) for President Trump and Congress due to the Republicans' thin majority in the House of Representatives.\n\nFor additional resources, see a [tracker of the historical debt limit and debt subject to limit](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/DebtLimit.html) and the Congressional Research Service report [*Debt Limit Policy Questions: How Long Do Extraordinary Measures Last?*](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN12147)" }, { "id": 34454, "title": "Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "OpenAI Releases Full o3 Model Before March 28, 2025?", "url_title": "OpenAI Releases Full o3 Model Before March 28, 2025?", "slug": "openai-releases-full-o3-model-before-march-28-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-27T19:38:09.563228Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:16.526471Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.824452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:43:16.526469Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1010, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33971, "title": "Will OpenAI publicly release the full o3 model before March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-27T19:38:09.563628Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T21:00:53.746931Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-27T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI announced its forthcoming o3 and o3-mini AI models in a [<u>livestream</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU) on December 20, 2024. Described as a successor to o1 and skipping over o2, purportedly due to [<u>Telefonica’s O2</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_\\(UK\\)), OpenAI [<u>described</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-announces-o3-models-175657596.html) o3 as a significant breakthrough in AI reasoning. The model was reported to have significantly outperformed any previous AI system [<u>on coding and research-level math</u>](https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870172996650053653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1870172996650053653%7Ctwgr%5E16fa4771724238be9b30de71968a334c68bca7af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2024%2F12%2F20%2Fopenai-announces-new-o3-model%2F), and also [<u>exceeded previous performance</u>](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) on the [<u>Abstract and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence</u>](https://arcprize.org/arc) (ARC-AGI) challenge by far, even reaching approximately human level. According to ARC-AGI:\n\n> Despite the significant cost per task, these numbers aren't just the result of applying brute force compute to the benchmark. OpenAI's new o3 model represents a significant leap forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks. This is not merely incremental improvement, but a genuine breakthrough, marking a qualitative shift in AI capabilities compared to the prior limitations of LLMs. o3 is a system capable of adapting to tasks it has never encountered before, arguably approaching human-level performance in the ARC-AGI domain.\n> \n> Of course, such generality comes at a steep cost, and wouldn't quite be economical yet: you could pay a human to solve ARC-AGI tasks for roughly \\$5 per task (we know, we did that), while consuming mere cents in energy. Meanwhile o3 requires \\$17-20 per task in the low-compute mode. But cost-performance will likely improve quite dramatically over the next few months and years, so you should plan for these capabilities to become competitive with human work within a fairly short timeline.\n\nOpenAI also announced applicants could [<u>apply</u>](https://openai.com/index/early-access-for-safety-testing/) to help safety test forthcoming advanced models. In the announcement video, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [<u>said</u>](https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU?si=_93eeXULrkrt8K_o\\&t=1293):\n\n> We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that, but . . . the more people can help us safety test the more we can make sure we hit that.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 28, 2025, Eastern Time, OpenAI has made the full version of its announced o3 model publicly available via web interface.", "fine_print": "* Models that OpenAI states are powered by o3 will generally not count as the full o3 model, unless OpenAI publicly confirms that a released model is the planned release of o3. For example, the [deep research](https://openai.com/index/introducing-deep-research/) agent OpenAI released on February 2, 2025, will not count unless OpenAI states that the model is the anticipated release of the o3 model, in which case the question will resolve as **Yes** at the time that statement is made.\n* An o3 version will be considered to be the “full” version if it does not have any qualifiers in its name or description that suggest that the version is not the full version.\n * For example “o3-mini” would not count, and neither would a model named “o3-preview” or described in the announcement or model description as a preview or otherwise not yet the full o3. Stated intentions to continue developing and improving the o3 model will **not** on their own result in the model being considered to not yet be the full version of o3.\n * Names or descriptions that suggest a variant form of a “full” version will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**. For example, o3-pro would be sufficient, while different versions with low and high compute times would also count, for example “o3-low” or “o3-high”, so long as Metaculus assesses that their descriptions are compatible with being a variant of o3 full.\n* It is immaterial if o3 is released with limited or restricted reasoning or compute times. For example, if o3 is released in a manner that satisfies these criteria but is only available in “low” compute mode or has similar restrictions, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n* In the event OpenAI renames o3 to be something other than o3, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI states that the model is the one formerly announced as o3 and all other criteria have been met.\n* Metaculus will defer to statements made by OpenAI. For example, it will be immaterial if there is speculation that a released o3 model does not have the full capabilities described in previous announcements of o3.\n* Releases of other models are immaterial. For example if GPT-5 is released and it is not publicly described by OpenAI as being o3, that will not be sufficient.\n* The model will be considered publicly available via web interface if it is available on a webpage for users to interact and converse with, including if limited only to paid subscribers of a certain payment tier, and all of the following availability criteria also apply:\n * It must be available to users in the United States. Availability in other countries is not required.\n * It must not be subject to an invite-only waitlist, for example invite-only betas or testing periods are not sufficient. \n * In the event of a gradual or phased rollout, or in the event access and signups are disabled due to high demand, the question will resolve as **Yes** if at least two Metaculus admins are able to access o3, on separate accounts, as described in these criteria before the date in question. Metaculus admins will not make excessive effort to check for access or to try to get access (aside from completing any signup or subscription steps needed to access o3), and will simply check periodically whether they can access o3.\n * Rate limits or usage restrictions on the number of messages allowed are immaterial, so long as at least one message and response can be had.\n* Release of o3 via API without being released as a web interface is not sufficient.", "post_id": 34454, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743111148.53433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1004, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743111148.53433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1004, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03140566243178505 ], "histogram": [ [ 51.866956568045346, 5.197759949904524, 0.15112500387248684, 0.5275882010528484, 0.04032139138930005, 0.34275782441177427, 0.0025887028099425367, 0.2992554487000638, 2.8229421982006357e-09, 1.0001459429237601e-10, 1.1557224762654439, 0.04359597335512812, 0.0, 0.0001966113073889668, 0.12391940268612617, 4.595097664142577e-06, 2.8649267186845535e-08, 5.842909429657552e-09, 1.4424897792550958e-07, 0.0, 5.311173225295181e-06, 9.531746092156411e-05, 2.489715849256822e-08, 0.0, 0.16201329462194425, 0.07033959849144233, 1.3783240308891696e-05, 4.232358650647132e-06, 3.915582996614932e-06, 0.0, 0.032170978652771715, 3.4375390864687152e-06, 5.042074936479863e-07, 6.838747198744426e-06, 6.2170196540308365e-06, 0.0007691447308023981, 2.8590514528030427e-06, 0.0, 8.408746498764753e-08, 3.83375058735683e-07, 8.313023640950447e-07, 7.456433768267263e-11, 0.04282792545336189, 1.2574369475866578e-07, 1.299889111207961e-09, 2.6712019969106545e-08, 0.0, 6.112181899293111e-07, 9.064914591173229e-06, 0.0, 0.005573876555021043, 0.0007087839249432702, 2.286753037798356e-09, 0.0, 8.411093778750756e-06, 7.674423708663602e-06, 1.4088878370556721e-05, 9.590276894643578e-06, 0.0, 6.985568367875261e-08, 0.010693285111451439, 0.023363353758739224, 9.253807998807052e-07, 0.09936985745622559, 1.2528980046397129e-08, 0.35027445245558453, 1.3898694541993166e-05, 6.028884393590857e-06, 0.017191611876085398, 9.675745932465991e-07, 2.8206205443497427e-05, 0.005676906885054595, 0.00047889979979726734, 1.2716794611221104e-06, 0.05833670085085154, 2.3610942247152023e-05, 4.673249864436078e-06, 4.078502255054833e-08, 1.1427985372730518e-05, 0.07688180533969345, 1.85220144914863e-05, 1.2716583025115134e-06, 0.006234308805112233, 3.2240663098082437e-09, 1.8641405336065955e-06, 3.9709264382054385e-06, 2.673912232053724e-10, 3.0741700960990724e-08, 5.605533413498251e-07, 1.8968020021123035e-06, 0.5036137499181388, 0.00044975776553487335, 6.914439509062831e-08, 0.0, 0.0013824231173854614, 1.8566667747720162e-06, 0.0, 0.00795075966368717, 7.403789445251924e-08, 0.6448246576974008 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.85598053103577, "peer_score": 75.81395020454318, "coverage": 0.9998344079190787, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998344079190787, "spot_peer_score": 62.53961824024994, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 71.85598053103577, "peer_archived_score": 75.81395020454318, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.53961824024994, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2665, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nOpenAI announced its forthcoming o3 and o3-mini AI models in a [<u>livestream</u>](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKBG1sqdyIU) on December 20, 2024. Described as a successor to o1 and skipping over o2, purportedly due to [<u>Telefonica’s O2</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O2_\\(UK\\)), OpenAI [<u>described</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-announces-o3-models-175657596.html) o3 as a significant breakthrough in AI reasoning. The model was reported to have significantly outperformed any previous AI system [<u>on coding and research-level math</u>](https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1870172996650053653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1870172996650053653%7Ctwgr%5E16fa4771724238be9b30de71968a334c68bca7af%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2024%2F12%2F20%2Fopenai-announces-new-o3-model%2F), and also [<u>exceeded previous performance</u>](https://arcprize.org/blog/oai-o3-pub-breakthrough) on the [<u>Abstract and Reasoning Corpus for Artificial General Intelligence</u>](https://arcprize.org/arc) (ARC-AGI) challenge by far, even reaching approximately human level. According to ARC-AGI:\n\n> Despite the significant cost per task, these numbers aren't just the result of applying brute force compute to the benchmark. OpenAI's new o3 model represents a significant leap forward in AI's ability to adapt to novel tasks. This is not merely incremental improvement, but a genuine breakthrough, marking a qualitative shift in AI capabilities compared to the prior limitations of LLMs. o3 is a system capable of adapting to tasks it has never encountered before, arguably approaching human-level performance in the ARC-AGI domain.\n> \n> Of course, such generality comes at a steep cost, and wouldn't quite be economical yet: you could pay a human to solve ARC-AGI tasks for roughly \\$5 per task (we know, we did that), while consuming mere cents in energy. Meanwhile o3 requires \\$17-20 per task in the low-compute mode. But cost-performance will likely improve quite dramatically over the next few months and years, so you should plan for these capabilities to become competitive with human work within a fairly short timeline.\n\nOpenAI also announced applicants could [<u>apply</u>](https://openai.com/index/early-access-for-safety-testing/) to help safety test forthcoming advanced models. In the announcement video, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman [<u>said</u>](https://www.youtube.com/live/SKBG1sqdyIU?si=_93eeXULrkrt8K_o\\&t=1293):\n\n> We plan to launch o3-mini around the end of January, and full o3 shortly after that, but . . . the more people can help us safety test the more we can make sure we hit that." }, { "id": 34415, "title": "Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?", "short_title": "Starship IFT-8 160 KM Altitude Before March 10, 2025?", "url_title": "Starship IFT-8 160 KM Altitude Before March 10, 2025?", "slug": "starship-ift-8-160-km-altitude-before-march-10-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-27T13:25:33.259364Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:18.403830Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.737300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-01-30T23:42:18.403827Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T19:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 887, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:58:33.243270Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33933, "title": "Will the eighth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of 160 kilometers before March 10, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-27T13:25:33.259748Z", "open_time": "2025-02-03T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T19:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-10T19:16:08.353605Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [seven \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 3, 2025 and before March 10, 2025, Eastern Time, a Starship vehicle reaches an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 99 miles) intact. For this to count, the Starship spacecraft has to be stacked on top of the Super Heavy booster at launch with both launched together.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX, including telemetry displayed during its livestream (provided Metaculus has no reason to believe the displayed telemetry is in error), or reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). In the event the altitude achieved is near 160 km but it is not clear whether 160 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved to resolve the question. If on March 25, 2025, Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to determine whether Starship reached an altitude of 160 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX or reporting from credible sources saying that Starship reached an altitude of \"approximately 160 kilometers\" or \"\\~160 kilometers\" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 160 kilometers or more.\n* The Starship will be considered to be \"intact\" even if it has minor damage or defects, so long as it remains largely whole.", "post_id": 34415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741555595.969061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 881, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741555595.969061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 881, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01166688178904359 ], "histogram": [ [ 50.01330036471346, 1.7412873834740887, 0.8890655126686507, 1.0006722808225976, 0.4247876826940426, 1.9495132301149503, 0.00011709280459960051, 7.640472098642274e-05, 0.006707273035046925, 3.15110060549006e-05, 0.8167690546407844, 0.00011161581649186007, 0.0012881214102031518, 3.668998348818606e-05, 4.783023266383124e-05, 0.2653745845607644, 0.07416715942611497, 2.2988496394831236e-05, 5.103874439262486e-05, 3.312409211273971e-05, 7.270759840893506e-06, 6.452725612129437e-05, 3.217849845698039e-06, 3.7237353452163814e-05, 2.241579035137164e-08, 0.00028096703974088644, 0.0, 1.2552720356774753e-06, 1.0455132057777286e-05, 0.0, 0.27494827190765453, 2.110924981305748e-06, 2.680935886666414e-06, 1.0241653697951957e-06, 2.765865066701097e-06, 0.001896436359880667, 6.270219721687493e-06, 5.570575024140137e-06, 7.331825139527403e-05, 1.6865094449134185e-06, 0.25630363531445177, 2.008317541937687e-08, 4.576581678048369e-09, 0.00035053345522059374, 0.00011869035924007946, 9.519032482001517e-05, 0.0, 0.0013384741389865233, 2.8445387387464276e-06, 0.0, 0.008770238024744935, 2.5628415265731795e-09, 0.0, 0.0001022857710772414, 0.0002262881351468939, 3.761696284924459e-05, 0.001672439950604951, 9.98188623449268e-05, 0.0, 0.00037699294600680776, 0.0020883237428768004, 1.697001223435981e-08, 0.00035369745555295033, 0.0013041434350182977, 1.8427619265234837e-05, 0.0011012535431049004, 0.0003348916490792708, 5.301545400370531e-07, 0.0005990670781401261, 0.0005598987859991924, 0.0017250659908121069, 0.0012883808697099863, 0.0008264349590555942, 0.0012271605497857431, 0.0011929131662418188, 0.0013190432318024624, 0.00598303057772679, 0.003084464677165116, 0.0003425513471514662, 0.0035542730071300064, 0.0033031557487823745, 0.0014130795054347243, 0.07121872135557077, 4.772506538829126e-11, 0.0017134046536633506, 0.006923148304799494, 0.0009028823110177302, 0.0013094045586610785, 0.0014590491381956052, 0.0005165699892462484, 0.002797002216349, 6.715391756870545e-09, 2.8065519638311314e-11, 0.0006325631155626137, 0.00212451863233324, 2.6176855198399683e-07, 7.180343218661212e-11, 4.544303471579984e-05, 0.0006615239401813709, 0.01246668609632893 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.030379002785795, "peer_score": 34.68629428351258, "coverage": 0.999748046775467, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999748046775467, "spot_peer_score": 62.19732658882869, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 6.030379002785795, "peer_archived_score": 34.68629428351258, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.19732658882869, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) as the second stage. SpaceX [describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [seven \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches), two in 2023, four in 2024, and one in 2025 using the new Block 2 ship design. The ship of the latter flight exploded over the Turks and Caicos Islands during initial burn, likely due to a fuel leak." }, { "id": 34396, "title": "Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?", "short_title": "US annex Canada before June 3, 2072?", "url_title": "US annex Canada before June 3, 2072?", "slug": "us-annex-canada-before-june-3-2072", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T12:31:39.749547Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T21:39:05.339823Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.370555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T21:39:05.339821Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-06-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-17T21:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33889, "title": "Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T12:31:39.750005Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T21:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-02T21:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-02T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-06-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the fictional universe of the [Fallout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_\\(franchise\\)) games the United States officially announced the annexation of Canada [on June 3, 2072](https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_annexation_of_Canada) as a step in protecting Alaska from the ongoing Chinese invasion. The annexation process had fully concluded in 2077.\n\nWhile historically unlikely, political speculation about annexing Canada in the real world has been fueled by recent provocative comments from U.S. political figures, such as Donald Trump, who in 2024 mentioned that Canada can [become a 51st state](https://ground.news/article/donald-trump-says-canada-becoming-51st-us-state-a-great-idea_a35169). His remarks, while often dismissed as hyperbole or humor, have sparked discussions about the plausibility of such a scenario.\n\nCanadian prime minister Justin Trudeau (who was mentioned by Trump as \"governor Trudeau\") announced in January 2025 that he will resign from his post and leave his position as a leader of the Liberal Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before **June 3, 2072**, any part of Canada's internationally recognized territory (as of the moment of annexation) officially becomes part of the United States as a state, territory, or other political unit through a formal process. The process must meet both the following conditions:\n\n1. **Legal Recognition**: The annexation of Canadian territory must be acknowledged by the U.S.\n2. **Territorial Integration**: The annexed area must be formally integrated into the United States as a state, territory, or other political unit recognized by U.S. law.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if:\n\n* No part of Canada's territory becomes part of the United States by the specified date.\n* Canada undergoes significant political restructuring (e.g., independence movements or mergers with other entities) but does not result in U.S. annexation of any Canadian territory.\n* No credible legal or political consensus exists regarding U.S. annexation of Canadian territory.\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Territories that were part of the [active disputes between US and Canada as of January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_areas_disputed_by_Canada_and_the_United_States\\&oldid=1262584342#Current_disputes) will not affect question resolution. These disputes are:\n\n* Machias Seal Island\n* Strait of Juan de Fuca\n* Yukon–Alaska dispute, Beaufort Sea\n* Northwest Passage\n* Dixon Entrance", "post_id": 34396, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756340288.238079, "end_time": 1784098145.826, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756340288.238079, "end_time": 1784098145.826, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.059148537944225185 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0063774501292635, 0.6984449301569673, 0.7371557070192187, 0.0, 1.625071309678011, 1.0976103830298731, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the fictional universe of the [Fallout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_\\(franchise\\)) games the United States officially announced the annexation of Canada [on June 3, 2072](https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_annexation_of_Canada) as a step in protecting Alaska from the ongoing Chinese invasion. The annexation process had fully concluded in 2077.\n\nWhile historically unlikely, political speculation about annexing Canada in the real world has been fueled by recent provocative comments from U.S. political figures, such as Donald Trump, who in 2024 mentioned that Canada can [become a 51st state](https://ground.news/article/donald-trump-says-canada-becoming-51st-us-state-a-great-idea_a35169). His remarks, while often dismissed as hyperbole or humor, have sparked discussions about the plausibility of such a scenario.\n\nCanadian prime minister Justin Trudeau (who was mentioned by Trump as \"governor Trudeau\") announced in January 2025 that he will resign from his post and leave his position as a leader of the Liberal Party." } ] }
):\n\n\n\nIn](http://source](https://www.britannica.com/place/Kurdistan)):%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnIn){kind=link}
