Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=120
{ "count": 5510, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=100", "results": [ { "id": 38084, "title": "Will California have 20.0 million or more residents living in drought on June 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-california-have-200-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-june-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.934325Z", "published_at": "2025-05-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:47.368480Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37390, "title": "Will California have 20.0 million or more residents living in drought on June 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.934325Z", "open_time": "2025-05-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-28T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-28T20:16:38.626833Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SF Gate: [California's drought has returned — and it's already bad](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-drought-problem-20271547.php)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/california) lists greater than or equal to 20.0 million California residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after June 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up until the end of the tournament's scoring at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 38084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748483848.006347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748483848.006347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.61044821232881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2990786581517114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43782470350779906, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.791415242919365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.09348984889254526, 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"peer_archived_score": 12.339884596724863, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.702888222730891, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SF Gate: [California's drought has returned — and it's already bad](https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-drought-problem-20271547.php)" }, { "id": 38080, "title": "Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-harvard-university-have-a-student-and-exchange-visitor-program-certification-on-july-1-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.649974Z", "published_at": "2025-05-28T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:52.029747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-28T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37386, "title": "Will Harvard University have a Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification on July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.649974Z", "open_time": "2025-05-28T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T00:27:19.318398Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\r\n\r\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on July 1, 2025, Harvard University has a certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) programme allowing international students to enroll, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* An announcement that Harvard's certification will be restored on a date after July 1, 2025 will not suffice to resolve this question. The certification needs to be in effect for this to resolve.\r\n* Getting the certification at any point on July 1, 2025 would resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 38080, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748449353.542583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748449353.542583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.5202115557188646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.076261882502705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8460382388409197, 0.5713450688736563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45647441405538336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0838974838780717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028211751262907668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1401743975060779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5654667606195058, 0.5618343227108057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5092207873276423, 0.0, 0.4452257211395179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1941378799360505, 0.0, 0.24848421122960956, 0.0, 0.7134897192591153, 0.11083301965526829, 0.0, 1.2703760526147476, 0.0, 0.9868053957634323, 0.12804351164029554, 0.0, 1.6291524589989779, 0.0, 0.6549141768598791, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5227980548888946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37297404405291623, 0.0, 0.3704164410767862, 0.055522266795466554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11917266062120754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9461206906142233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.465370126799904, "peer_score": 32.52126271027823, "coverage": 0.9846781048509812, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9846781048509812, "spot_peer_score": 29.875397166460022, "spot_baseline_score": 32.19280948873624, "baseline_archived_score": 34.465370126799904, "peer_archived_score": 32.52126271027823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.875397166460022, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 32.19280948873624 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\r\n\r\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party." }, { "id": 38071, "title": "Will Aaron Rouse win the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia in June 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-aaron-rouse-win-the-democratic-primary-for-lieutenant-governor-of-virginia-in-june-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.152889Z", "published_at": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:27.947308Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37377, "title": "Will Aaron Rouse win the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia in June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:06.152889Z", "open_time": "2025-05-27T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-19T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-19T22:46:34.317737Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-27T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ballotpedia: [Virginia lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2025 (June 17 Democratic primary)](https://ballotpedia.org/Virginia_lieutenant_gubernatorial_election,_2025_(June_17_Democratic_primary))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Aaron Rouse wins the 2025 Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Democratic primary election is currently scheduled for June 17, 2025. 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"not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37364, "title": "Will the word \"tariff\" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.613547Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-18T09:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-18T09:44:41.852726Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\r\n\r\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on any single day after May 19, 2025 and before July 1, 2025, the words \"tariff\" or \"tariffs\" appear on neither the digital version of the front page of The New York Times nor the Wall Street Journal. The following URLs will be used to resolve the question:\r\n\r\n* The New York Times: [https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper)\r\n* Wall Street Journal: [https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage](https://www.wsj.com/print-edition/20250515/frontpage)\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n<sup>Note: WSJ front page URL for May 15, 2025. Format is: yyyy-mm-dd.</sup>", "fine_print": "* Grammar or spelling will not prevent a **No** resolution.\r\n* \"Tariff(s)\" must be omitted from both papers' front pages on the same day.\r\n* \"Tariff(s)\" can appear anywhere on the page, including \"Pages A2-A3 and Corrections\", \"What's News: Business & Finance\" not just the initial section at the top. The only sections that do not qualify are those that do not change between different front pages such as the \"Most Popular News\" or \"Recommended Videos\" sections on WSJ.", "post_id": 38058, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748278029.366445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5166666666666666 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748278029.366445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5166666666666666 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3231096945347672 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8028844628298696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00867414512829912, 0.0, 0.2953646875110861, 0.0, 0.0, 1.138831508454369, 0.11666173967363361, 0.4013503291190707, 0.0, 0.0, 2.448658018298915, 0.0, 0.5394424405969069, 0.6785591737117599, 0.3778215797427243, 1.2508574975501767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6162188178768027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7122717803680271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8486068117891338, 0.0, 0.18903379691960978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6054722359048019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01623598922425778, 0.20113652926608147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000560044871523829, 0.722252804082377, 0.1251657989762928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4798589449020482, 0.5088811880510724, 0.0, 0.09405365545061962, 0.0, 1.8232221361731797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01218656365778045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5716145265285659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35785442167268844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -95.71403177680342, "peer_score": 12.47540425064847, "coverage": 0.9866883237494363, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9866883237494363, "spot_peer_score": 9.260038782128172, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -95.71403177680342, "peer_archived_score": 12.47540425064847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.260038782128172, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whether reading the newspaper or social media or watching the news, it is highly likely you are going to see something about tariffs - mainly due to US President Donald Trump's [renewed love](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250401-tariff-man-trump-s-long-history-with-trade-wars) for this somewhat antiquated form of taxation.\r\n\r\nThe New York Times and the Wall Street Journal are two of the largest print newspapers in the US. Before July, will we see tariffs wiped from the front pages of both papers?" }, { "id": 38057, "title": "Will Merab Dvalishvili defeat Sean O'Malley at UFC 316?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-merab-dvalishvili-defeat-sean-omalley-at-ufc-316", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-24T05:50:05.604584Z", "published_at": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:59.047289Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-26T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-08T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": 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"peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Please see [UFC Stats](http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/dab807a99d295832) for statistical details of the two opponents.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Johnny Walker defeats Azamat Murzakanov at [UFC 316](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_316).", "fine_print": "If Walker does not fight anyone at UFC 316 or fights someone else, this resolves as No.", "post_id": 38056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748260394.329826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 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for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\n\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before July 1, 2025, Harvard University has a certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) programme allowing international students to enroll, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* An announcement that Harvard's certification will be restored on a date after July 1, 2025 will not suffice to resolve this question. The certification needs to be in effect for this to resolve.\n* Getting the certification at any point on July 1, 2025 would resolve this question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 37920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748605924.588353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748605924.588353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7646349084562339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027172461172235558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29133448820962665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3736844955948373, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5582571619822913, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.1591575198244894, 0.32356993027434205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0707914158072585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8158127052797672, 0.0, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1783528079640113, 0.0, 0.16106653414689315, 0.020354001336032917, 0.02358838295555427, 1.0660247681512243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.561101776449919, 0.0, 1.7180212905818728, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.0, 0.7535956555594016, 0.21134819307803016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 277, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration and Harvard University have been through a significant confrontation, since Trump took office for the second time. This [started](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/harvard-university-trump.html) with a task force commissioned by Trump to address antisemitism on campus, but quickly spiralled out of control. The administration asked Harvard to provide detailed records on foreign students, including disciplinary actions and involvement in protests, and demanded that Harvard implement changes to its admissions, hiring, and diversity policies. Harvard refused, citing concerns over academic freedom and student privacy. In response, the administration froze or pulled almost \\$4 billion in federal grants and contracts to Harvard and its research partners. Harvard filed a lawsuit against the administration, accusing it of attempting to interfere in academic decision-making and penalising the institution for resisting politically motivated demands.\n\nThe situation escalated on May 22, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security [revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html) Harvard's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program, effectively barring the university from enrolling international students for the 2025–2026 academic year. This action affects approximately 6,800 international students or 27% of Harvard's student body, who must now transfer to other institutions or risk losing their legal status. The administration justified the move by accusing Harvard of fostering a \"toxic campus climate,\" failing to protect Jewish students, and allegedly collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party." }, { "id": 37905, "title": "Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?", "short_title": "Legislation before '29 reduces long-term capital gains rate for highest bracket?", "url_title": "Legislation before '29 reduces long-term capital gains rate for highest bracket?", "slug": "legislation-before-29-reduces-long-term-capital-gains-rate-for-highest-bracket", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-21T16:51:13.476343Z", "published_at": "2025-06-30T13:29:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-10T00:10:41.642711Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-30T13:29:56Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T13:29:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 37215, "title": "Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?", "created_at": "2025-05-21T16:51:13.476753Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T13:29:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-05T13:29:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate in the United States, applied to assets held over one year, is [<u>currently 0%, 15%, or 20% based on income and filing status for 2024 and 2025</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates). For the highest income bracket—s[<u>ingle filers with taxable income above \\$518,900 or married couples filing jointly above \\$583,750 in 2025—the rate is 20%</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates), plus a [<u>3.8% net investment income tax</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates) for certain high earners. Established under the [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)</u>](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-a-comparison-for-businesses), these rates are distinct from short-term capital gains, taxed as ordinary income ([<u>up to 37%</u>](https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/investments-and-taxes/guide-to-short-term-vs-long-term-capital-gains-taxes-brokerage-accounts-etc/L7KCu9etn)). The TCJA’s individual tax provisions, including LTCG rates, are set to expire after 2025, creating a window for legislative changes.\n\nRecent proposals, such as the 2025 House Budget Committee’s “[<u>One Big Beautiful Bill</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf),” focus on extending [<u>TCJA provisions but do not explicitly prioritize reducing the 20% LTCG rate for top earners</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf). Meanwhile, political discourse includes competing ideas, such as increasing the[<u> top income tax rate to 39.6%</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/5/5/raising-top-ordinary-rates-options-under-tcja-extension) or alternative tax cuts like [<u>eliminating taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/21/no-tax-on-tips-act-passes-senate/). Republican control of Congress and budget reconciliation could facilitate tax cuts, but deficit concerns may shift focus away from LTCG reductions. Critics argue the current LTCG system disproportionately benefits the wealthy due to tax deferral advantages, fueling debates over reform.\n\nIf this market resolves to “Yes,” a reduced LTCG rate could stimulate investment by lowering the tax burden on high earners, potentially boosting stock market activity and economic growth, as suggested by the Tax Foundation. However, it could exacerbate income inequality, as benefits would primarily accrue to the top 1%, who hold significant investment assets. Federal revenue could decline, with [<u>estimates suggesting a 1% rate cut might reduce receipts by billions annually</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/), potentially increasing deficits unless offset by other measures. Politically, such a reduction could face public backlash amid growing scrutiny of wealth concentration, influencing future tax policy debates. This question hinges on whether economic priorities and political will align to enact this change by 2029.\n\nThis question was inspired by the “[<u>Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025)” market on [<u>Polymarket</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, legislation is enacted that reduces the federal long-term capital gains (LTGC) tax rate for the highest bracket from the current 20%.", "fine_print": "* The reduction must apply to the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for at least one of the following: single filers, those married filing jointly, or those married filing separately.\n* Temporary reductions or breaks, or changes that do not directly lower the tax rate, such as adjustments to brackets or deductions, will not count.", "post_id": 37905, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752106231.315888, "end_time": 1760021385.666, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752106231.315888, "end_time": 1760021385.666, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.585675745258908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal long-term capital gains (LTCG) tax rate in the United States, applied to assets held over one year, is [<u>currently 0%, 15%, or 20% based on income and filing status for 2024 and 2025</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates). For the highest income bracket—s[<u>ingle filers with taxable income above \\$518,900 or married couples filing jointly above \\$583,750 in 2025—the rate is 20%</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates), plus a [<u>3.8% net investment income tax</u>](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/taxes/capital-gains-tax-rates) for certain high earners. Established under the [<u>2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)</u>](https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-a-comparison-for-businesses), these rates are distinct from short-term capital gains, taxed as ordinary income ([<u>up to 37%</u>](https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/investments-and-taxes/guide-to-short-term-vs-long-term-capital-gains-taxes-brokerage-accounts-etc/L7KCu9etn)). The TCJA’s individual tax provisions, including LTCG rates, are set to expire after 2025, creating a window for legislative changes.\n\nRecent proposals, such as the 2025 House Budget Committee’s “[<u>One Big Beautiful Bill</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf),” focus on extending [<u>TCJA provisions but do not explicitly prioritize reducing the 20% LTCG rate for top earners</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf). Meanwhile, political discourse includes competing ideas, such as increasing the[<u> top income tax rate to 39.6%</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/5/5/raising-top-ordinary-rates-options-under-tcja-extension) or alternative tax cuts like [<u>eliminating taxes on tips</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/05/21/no-tax-on-tips-act-passes-senate/). Republican control of Congress and budget reconciliation could facilitate tax cuts, but deficit concerns may shift focus away from LTCG reductions. Critics argue the current LTCG system disproportionately benefits the wealthy due to tax deferral advantages, fueling debates over reform.\n\nIf this market resolves to “Yes,” a reduced LTCG rate could stimulate investment by lowering the tax burden on high earners, potentially boosting stock market activity and economic growth, as suggested by the Tax Foundation. However, it could exacerbate income inequality, as benefits would primarily accrue to the top 1%, who hold significant investment assets. Federal revenue could decline, with [<u>estimates suggesting a 1% rate cut might reduce receipts by billions annually</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/), potentially increasing deficits unless offset by other measures. Politically, such a reduction could face public backlash amid growing scrutiny of wealth concentration, influencing future tax policy debates. This question hinges on whether economic priorities and political will align to enact this change by 2029.\n\nThis question was inspired by the “[<u>Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025)” market on [<u>Polymarket</u>](https://polymarket.com/event/will-trump-cut-long-term-capital-gains-tax-in-2025)." }, { "id": 37887, "title": "Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?", "short_title": "17th BRICS Summit new country?", "url_title": "17th BRICS Summit new country?", "slug": "17th-brics-summit-new-country", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-19T09:43:07.780298Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T09:07:42.350770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T00:05:08.780073Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-05T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T03:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-13T02:52:16.954426Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-13T02:52:16.954426Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37206, "title": "Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?", "created_at": "2025-05-19T09:43:07.780670Z", "open_time": "2025-05-26T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-31T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-05T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-08T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T23:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T23:37:52.460793Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which held their first formal summit in 2009. South Africa was invited to join in 2010, completing the original five-member grouping. BRICS serves as a forum for cooperation among major emerging economies, with a focus on economic development, political coordination, and reform of international institutions.\n\nAt the [15th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_BRICS_summit) in August 2023, the group announced a major expansion. Full membership invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina later declined the invitation, while Saudi Arabia has not formally accepted. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE officially joined on January 1, 2024. \n\nAt the [16th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16th_BRICS_summit) in October 2024, held in Kazan, Russia, BRICS formally introduced a new partner country framework. Thirteen countries were invited as partners at the 16th Summit: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria, Turkey, and Vietnam have not yet confirmed participation. Indonesia later joined as a full member on January 6, 2025.\n\nThe 17th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Many countries have formally expressed interest in joining BRICS, but new members can only be admitted with unanimous agreement from existing members. While expansion remains a stated goal of the bloc, no new invitations have been confirmed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one previously not invited country is invited to join BRICS as a full member during or before the 17th BRICS summit.\n\nThis question will only resolve based upon an invitation for full membership, not partner status or any other status in the organisation.", "fine_print": "* An invitation of a partner country to become a full member will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Reinvitation of Saudi Arabia or Argentina will not be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. \n* Whether or not a country accepts its invitation will have no impact on this question.\n* If the 17th BRICS summit is delayed, that will not impact this question unless the delay is to after August 31, 2025, in which case this question will be annulled.\n* The specific cutoff for resolution will be 00:00 following the final day of the summit. For example, if the summit is held as expected on July 6-7, the cutoff will be July 8, 00:00. This question will use the timezone of the summit's location, if the summit has no physical location, it will use UTC.\n* For the purposes of this question, \"country\" is defined as a UN member state.", "post_id": 37887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751683833.260075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751683833.260075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.1003514859984951 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.165188568607907, 3.7842279717552074, 3.027521419146094, 1.5458896786279093, 0.10345078225381978, 2.2803401554885507, 0.012630607718125297, 0.1076010545845885, 0.01511596887907778, 0.0, 0.305724311181478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02511113768417862, 0.023636342806454203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.007283406963872335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0095357691321311, 0.0, 0.0019434189214753161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3416756395230208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016870797780243333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008288495261882165, 0.0, 0.004622951861781569, 0.005162769561062351, 0.0036749449916905963, 0.003260899582300764, 0.0028831904530317756, 0.004930069554098021, 0.0, 0.005750651984612199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09389829709384126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002929478024076874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7732176109728021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5400419045981352 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -3.74029081672692, "peer_score": 29.44943651252545, "coverage": 0.9999889358019134, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999889358019134, "spot_peer_score": 39.88400003886102, "spot_baseline_score": -43.440282414577496, "baseline_archived_score": -3.74029081672692, "peer_archived_score": 29.44943651252545, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.88400003886102, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -43.440282414577496 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 891, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BRICS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS) is an intergovernmental organization originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, which held their first formal summit in 2009. South Africa was invited to join in 2010, completing the original five-member grouping. BRICS serves as a forum for cooperation among major emerging economies, with a focus on economic development, political coordination, and reform of international institutions.\n\nAt the [15th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/15th_BRICS_summit) in August 2023, the group announced a major expansion. Full membership invitations were extended to Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Argentina later declined the invitation, while Saudi Arabia has not formally accepted. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE officially joined on January 1, 2024. \n\nAt the [16th BRICS Summit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/16th_BRICS_summit) in October 2024, held in Kazan, Russia, BRICS formally introduced a new partner country framework. Thirteen countries were invited as partners at the 16th Summit: Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. Algeria, Turkey, and Vietnam have not yet confirmed participation. Indonesia later joined as a full member on January 6, 2025.\n\nThe 17th BRICS Summit is scheduled to take place on July 6–7, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Many countries have formally expressed interest in joining BRICS, but new members can only be admitted with unanimous agreement from existing members. While expansion remains a stated goal of the bloc, no new invitations have been confirmed." }, { "id": 37881, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill impose new work requirements on Medicaid recipients?", "short_title": "Medicaid work requirements?", "url_title": "Medicaid work requirements?", "slug": "medicaid-work-requirements", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:11:28.081244Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T12:41:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T01:08:30.892271Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T12:41:28Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T12:41:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37201, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill impose new work requirements on Medicaid recipients?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:11:28.081615Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T12:41:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T12:41:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-08T01:08:30.856227Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nWork requirements for federal assistance programs have been a longstanding priority for many Republicans, who argue they promote self-sufficiency and reduce dependency. During his first term, [<u>Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services released guidelines</u>](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/01/11/577307947/hhs-will-let-states-require-people-to-work-for-medicaid) encouraging states to impose work requirements.\n\nThe [<u>House Energy and Commerce Committee marked up its part of the reconciliation bill</u>](https://energycommerce.house.gov/posts/chairman-guthrie-celebrates-committee-passage-of-reconciliation-text-to-put-americans-first) on May 14, 2025. It includes new restrictions on access to Medicaid for non-working adults.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes provisions that establish or expand work requirements as a condition of eligibility for the Medicaid program. If the bill does not include such provisions, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill. (See [<u>section 44141 of the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s marked-up proposal</u>](https://d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/01_SUBTITLED_EC_RECON_AINS_01_xml_b8cdc63ffe.pdf#page=69) from May 2025 for an example of what these requirements might look like).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill contains any provision that would require Medicaid beneficiaries to engage in work, job search, job training, community service, or similar activities as a condition of receiving or maintaining Medicaid benefits.\n* A \"Yes\" resolution requires that the work requirements be new or expanded beyond those already in effect as of January 1, 2025.\n* The provision must apply to Medicaid specifically, not just to other assistance programs.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether new Medicaid work requirements are included, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37881, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751591928.246752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751591928.246752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8975815888201355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394643218522802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 1.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.6724445141846137 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.32328229853512, "peer_score": 5.795625278344581, "coverage": 0.3116585349099846, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9929182859532301, "spot_peer_score": 16.397241812575793, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 20.32328229853512, "peer_archived_score": 5.795625278344581, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.397241812575793, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nWork requirements for federal assistance programs have been a longstanding priority for many Republicans, who argue they promote self-sufficiency and reduce dependency. During his first term, [<u>Trump’s Department of Health and Human Services released guidelines</u>](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2018/01/11/577307947/hhs-will-let-states-require-people-to-work-for-medicaid) encouraging states to impose work requirements.\n\nThe [<u>House Energy and Commerce Committee marked up its part of the reconciliation bill</u>](https://energycommerce.house.gov/posts/chairman-guthrie-celebrates-committee-passage-of-reconciliation-text-to-put-americans-first) on May 14, 2025. It includes new restrictions on access to Medicaid for non-working adults." }, { "id": 37875, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill make any car loan interest deductable in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Car loan interest deductible in 2026?", "url_title": "Car loan interest deductible in 2026?", "slug": "car-loan-interest-deductible-in-2026", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:04:33.303090Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:03:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T01:07:30.959019Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:03:27Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:03:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37195, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill make any car loan interest deductable in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:04:33.303527Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:03:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:03:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-08T01:07:30.922198Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nCurrently, interest paid on car loans is generally not tax-deductible for personal vehicles, unlike mortgage interest, which remains partially deductible under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. President Donald Trump has [<u>repeatedly called for allowing such interest to be deducted</u>](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tariffs-tax-cuts-core-trumps-economic-pitch-voters-2024-09-24/). In April 2025, Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) introduced the [<u>“United States Automobile Consumer Assistance and Relief Act” or the “USA CAR Act,”</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1219/text) which would create a new above-the-line deduction for interest paid on auto loans for cars made in the US. The [<u>Yale Budget Lab estimates that this proposal</u>](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/news/241011/deals-wheels-and-deductions-fiscal-effects-car-loan-interest-tax-deduction) could cost \\$173 billion over ten years.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows a deduction of up to \\$10,000 per year for \"qualified passenger vehicle loan interest.\" This deduction applies to motorcycles and ATVs as well as traditional cars, SUVs, and trucks, and only applies for vehicles where final assembly occurs in the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes a provision allowing for deduction of interest paid on vehicle loans. If no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See [<u>section 110104 of the \"One, Big, Beautiful Bill\"</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf#page=13) as marked up by the House Ways and Means Committee for an example of what this might look like).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill creates or expands any deduction specifically for interest paid on car loans or other vehicle financing arrangements.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* Any limitations on the deduction (income thresholds, maximum deduction amounts, qualifying vehicle types, etc.) are not relevant to the resolution.\n* Non-personal tax deductions, such as business deductions are not considered for this question.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) of the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether car loan interest deductibility is increased, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748722729.168974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748722729.168974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.653827217919266 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.604654485762165, "peer_score": 2.2144002463077173, "coverage": 0.31167998021038984, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9932408954453222, "spot_peer_score": 2.3953241022492753, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 14.604654485762165, "peer_archived_score": 2.2144002463077173, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.3953241022492753, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nCurrently, interest paid on car loans is generally not tax-deductible for personal vehicles, unlike mortgage interest, which remains partially deductible under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. President Donald Trump has [<u>repeatedly called for allowing such interest to be deducted</u>](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tariffs-tax-cuts-core-trumps-economic-pitch-voters-2024-09-24/). In April 2025, Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) introduced the [<u>“United States Automobile Consumer Assistance and Relief Act” or the “USA CAR Act,”</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1219/text) which would create a new above-the-line deduction for interest paid on auto loans for cars made in the US. The [<u>Yale Budget Lab estimates that this proposal</u>](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/news/241011/deals-wheels-and-deductions-fiscal-effects-car-loan-interest-tax-deduction) could cost \\$173 billion over ten years.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation allows a deduction of up to \\$10,000 per year for \"qualified passenger vehicle loan interest.\" This deduction applies to motorcycles and ATVs as well as traditional cars, SUVs, and trucks, and only applies for vehicles where final assembly occurs in the United States." }, { "id": 37874, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce the taxation of Social Security income in tax year 2026?", "short_title": "Will \"no tax on Social Security\" pass?", "url_title": "Will \"no tax on Social Security\" pass?", "slug": "will-no-tax-on-social-security-pass", "author_id": 120689, "author_username": "dylan.matthews", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:03:35.011854Z", "published_at": "2025-05-23T13:06:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T01:09:24.521446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-23T13:06:11Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:06:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32769, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecasting the Big Beautiful Bill", "slug": "budgetbill", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bill-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-05-23T16:33:32Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-05-23T16:32:05.399464Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:00:50.664231Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37194, "title": "Will the 2025 reconciliation bill reduce the taxation of Social Security income in tax year 2026?", "created_at": "2025-05-18T22:03:35.012314Z", "open_time": "2025-05-24T13:06:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-28T13:06:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-08T01:09:24.473275Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nUnder current law, Social Security benefits may be subject to federal income tax depending on a recipient's \"combined income\" (adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of Social Security benefits). For singles with combined income between \\$25,000 and \\$34,000, up to 50% of benefits may be taxable; above \\$34,000, up to 85% may be taxable. For married couples filing jointly, the thresholds are \\$32,000 and \\$44,000, respectively. These thresholds, established in 1983 and 1993, are not indexed for inflation, meaning more retirees become subject to this tax over time.\n\nIn February 2025, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) reintroduced the [<u>Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1040/text), which would eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits entirely. The Penn Wharton Budget Model has estimated that completely eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would [<u>reduce federal revenue by approximately \\$1.4 trillion</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/10/eliminating-income-taxes-on-social-security-benefits) over the next decade. President Trump has [<u>expressed general support for reducing taxes on Social Security benefits</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-social-security-tax/) but has not specifically endorsed the Massie bill.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation does not include any change to the taxability of Social Security income.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a reconciliation bill passed during fiscal year 2025 includes any provision that reduces the taxation of Social Security benefits for some or all recipients compared to taxation levels in effect for tax year 2025. If the bill contains no such provisions, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no such reconciliation bill is enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025 (before October 1, 2025), this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe question will resolve according to the text of the enacted reconciliation bill (See the text of the [<u>Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1040/text) as a potential parallel).", "fine_print": "* This question is asking whether the bill contains any provision that would reduce the tax burden on Social Security benefits for any group of taxpayers.\n* Qualifying provisions could include increasing the thresholds at which Social Security benefits become taxable, reducing the percentage of benefits subject to taxation, or creating new deductions or credits specifically related to Social Security income.\n* The provision must be effective for tax year 2026 to qualify for a \"Yes\" resolution.\n* Metaculus may use reports from [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the bill text. In the event the bill text is not available within three months after the passage of the bill, or in the event it is unclear whether Social Security taxation is reduced, Metaculus may use reporting and estimates from other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 37874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751422012.187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751422012.187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3116078322912355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.953442524745334, "peer_score": 6.136887708002297, "coverage": 0.3116831470838821, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9932840006932506, "spot_peer_score": 18.14988500424913, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "baseline_archived_score": 18.953442524745334, "peer_archived_score": 6.136887708002297, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.14988500424913, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal budget process in the United States begins with the passage of a [<u>budget resolution</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#how-does-congress-start-the-cbpp-anchor) — a concurrent resolution passed by both the House and Senate that sets broad fiscal targets for spending, revenue, the deficit, and debt levels. While it provides a framework for the upcoming fiscal year, it does not become law and does not require the president's signature. Importantly, the budget resolution may include reconciliation instructions, which direct specific congressional committees to draft legislation that meets the resolution's fiscal goals. These instructions are optional but allow for the creation of a [<u>reconciliation bill</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation), which allows the Senate to pass certain budget-related laws with a simple majority vote and limited debate, bypassing the [<u>filibuster</u>](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm).\n\nIf reconciliation instructions are included, the resulting reconciliation bill must be passed by both chambers and signed by the president to become law. It can include changes to spending, revenue, or the debt limit, but is restricted by rules such as the [<u>Byrd Rule</u>](https://www.cbpp.org/research/introduction-to-budget-reconciliation#what-is-the-byrd-rule-cbpp-anchor), which prohibits provisions unrelated to budget changes. If the budget resolution does not include reconciliation instructions, Congress must enact any fiscal changes through the regular legislative process. In this case, changes to [<u>discretionary spending</u>](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/#the-difference-between-mandatory-discretionary-and-supplemental-spending) are made through the annual appropriations bills, which fund specific government departments and require presidential approval. Changes to mandatory spending programs (like Medicare, [<u>Medicaid</u>](https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-of-the-federal-budget-is-mandatory-spending/), or Social Security), however, require standalone legislation that amends the law governing those programs. These also must pass both chambers and be signed by the president, and they generally face a higher procedural hurdle in the Senate due to the possibility of a filibuster.\n\nUnder current law, Social Security benefits may be subject to federal income tax depending on a recipient's \"combined income\" (adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of Social Security benefits). For singles with combined income between \\$25,000 and \\$34,000, up to 50% of benefits may be taxable; above \\$34,000, up to 85% may be taxable. For married couples filing jointly, the thresholds are \\$32,000 and \\$44,000, respectively. These thresholds, established in 1983 and 1993, are not indexed for inflation, meaning more retirees become subject to this tax over time.\n\nIn February 2025, Representative Thomas Massie (R-KY) reintroduced the [<u>Senior Citizens Tax Elimination Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1040/text), which would eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits entirely. The Penn Wharton Budget Model has estimated that completely eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would [<u>reduce federal revenue by approximately \\$1.4 trillion</u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/2/10/eliminating-income-taxes-on-social-security-benefits) over the next decade. President Trump has [<u>expressed general support for reducing taxes on Social Security benefits</u>](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-social-security-tax/) but has not specifically endorsed the Massie bill.\n\nOn May 14, 2025, the [<u>House Ways and Means Committee marked up</u>](https://waysandmeans.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/The-One-Big-Beautiful-Bill-Section-by-Section.pdf) its proposed section of the reconciliation bill. This legislation does not include any change to the taxability of Social Security income." } ] }
