Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=120
{ "count": 6211, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=100", "results": [ { "id": 40130, "title": "Will KEYS's market close price on 2025-10-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-08?", "short_title": "KEYS's close price rises?", "url_title": "KEYS's close price rises?", "slug": "keyss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:42.027130Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T21:15:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:04:02.554140Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:42.389919Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T20:56:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T20:56:19Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T21:15:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39666, "title": "Will KEYS's market close price on 2025-10-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-08?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:42.027555Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T21:15:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T20:56:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T20:56:19Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:04:00.618834Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Keysight Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is KEYS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:37) is 173.34. You can find more information about Keysight Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KEYS\n\nKeysight Technologies, Inc. provides electronic design and test solutions worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Communications Solutions Group and Electronic Industrial Solutions Group. It offers oscilloscopes; electronic design automation software; instrument measurement and workflow software, application software testing, instrument control software and connectivity, and software testing; modular instruments; digital multimeters, phase noise measurement, power meters and power sensors, counters, LCR meters and impedance measurement products, and electrometers; spectrum, logic, noise figure, and network analyzers; and protocol analyzers and exercisers, bit error ratio testers, AC and DC power analyzers, materials test equipment, device current waveform analyzers, and curve tracers. It also provides signal, waveform, and function generators; arbitrary waveform generators, DC power supplies, and DC electronic loads; wireless drive test, radio access and core network test, wireless analyzers, wireless network emulators, channel emulations, and over-the-air test; application and threat intelligence, cloud test, 5G NR base station test, cyber training simulators, network test hardware, protocol and load test, network security test, and network modeling; bypass switches, cloud visibility and synchronization, network and application monitoring, and network packet brokers and taps; and application-specific test systems, in-circuit test systems, parametric test, laser interferometers and calibration systems, monolithic laser combiners and precision optics, photonic test and measurement products, MMIC millimeter-wave and microwave devices, and accessories. In addition, it offers product support, technical and application support, installation, training, engineering, and integration services. The company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Santa Rosa, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"KEYS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of KEYS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40130, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759963491.340156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759963491.340156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5239387372926702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 14.0, 5.0, 6.0, 12.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.776370242205098, "peer_score": 2.4005240308193003, "coverage": 0.9586933340849698, "relative_legacy_score": 0.009905311819421635, "weighted_coverage": 0.9586933340849698, "spot_peer_score": 1.983791068532781, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -5.776370242205098, "peer_archived_score": 2.4005240308193003, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.009905311819421635, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.983791068532781, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Keysight Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is KEYS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:37) is 173.34. You can find more information about Keysight Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KEYS\n\nKeysight Technologies, Inc. provides electronic design and test solutions worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Communications Solutions Group and Electronic Industrial Solutions Group. It offers oscilloscopes; electronic design automation software; instrument measurement and workflow software, application software testing, instrument control software and connectivity, and software testing; modular instruments; digital multimeters, phase noise measurement, power meters and power sensors, counters, LCR meters and impedance measurement products, and electrometers; spectrum, logic, noise figure, and network analyzers; and protocol analyzers and exercisers, bit error ratio testers, AC and DC power analyzers, materials test equipment, device current waveform analyzers, and curve tracers. It also provides signal, waveform, and function generators; arbitrary waveform generators, DC power supplies, and DC electronic loads; wireless drive test, radio access and core network test, wireless analyzers, wireless network emulators, channel emulations, and over-the-air test; application and threat intelligence, cloud test, 5G NR base station test, cyber training simulators, network test hardware, protocol and load test, network security test, and network modeling; bypass switches, cloud visibility and synchronization, network and application monitoring, and network packet brokers and taps; and application-specific test systems, in-circuit test systems, parametric test, laser interferometers and calibration systems, monolithic laser combiners and precision optics, photonic test and measurement products, MMIC millimeter-wave and microwave devices, and accessories. In addition, it offers product support, technical and application support, installation, training, engineering, and integration services. The company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Santa Rosa, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"KEYS\"}}`" }, { "id": 40129, "title": "Will TXN's market close price on 2025-10-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-01?", "short_title": "TXN's close price rises?", "url_title": "TXN's close price rises?", "slug": "txns-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:41.316368Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T06:26:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:04:04.017364Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:41.667092Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T07:56:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T07:56:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T06:49:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T06:49:56Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T06:26:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39665, "title": "Will TXN's market close price on 2025-10-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:41.316779Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T06:26:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T07:56:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T07:56:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T06:49:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T06:49:56Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:04:02.812464Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T07:56:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T07:56:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Texas Instruments Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is TXN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:36) is 184.55. You can find more information about Texas Instruments Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXN\n\nTexas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, rest of Asia, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, and lighting products. This segment provides signal chain products that sense, condition, and measure signals to allow information to be transferred or converted for further processing and control, including amplifiers, data converters, interface products, motor drives, clocks, and logic and sensing products. The Embedded Processing segment offers microcontrollers, processors, wireless connectivity, and radar products; and applications processors for specific computing activity. This segment offers products for use in various markets, such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, calculators, and others. It provides DLP products primarily for use in project high-definition images; calculators; and application-specific integrated circuits. The company markets and sells its semiconductor products through direct sales and distributors, as well as through its website. Texas Instruments Incorporated was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"TXN\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of TXN. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40129, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759305018.856355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4625 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759305018.856355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4625 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5065142045454546 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 5.0, 4.0, 9.0, 4.0, 8.0, 11.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.378290296333113, "peer_score": -1.6515418269878934, "coverage": 0.9742740190912176, "relative_legacy_score": 0.005250092897760899, "weighted_coverage": 0.9742740190912176, "spot_peer_score": -2.054509801789115, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -6.378290296333113, "peer_archived_score": -1.6515418269878934, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.005250092897760899, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.054509801789115, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Texas Instruments Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is TXN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:36) is 184.55. You can find more information about Texas Instruments Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXN\n\nTexas Instruments Incorporated designs, manufactures, and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers in the United States, China, rest of Asia, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Japan, and internationally. The company operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments. The Analog segment offers power products to manage power requirements across various voltage levels, including battery-management solutions, DC/DC switching regulators, AC/DC and isolated controllers and converters, power switches, linear regulators, voltage references, and lighting products. This segment provides signal chain products that sense, condition, and measure signals to allow information to be transferred or converted for further processing and control, including amplifiers, data converters, interface products, motor drives, clocks, and logic and sensing products. The Embedded Processing segment offers microcontrollers, processors, wireless connectivity, and radar products; and applications processors for specific computing activity. This segment offers products for use in various markets, such as industrial, automotive, personal electronics, communications equipment, enterprise systems, calculators, and others. It provides DLP products primarily for use in project high-definition images; calculators; and application-specific integrated circuits. The company markets and sells its semiconductor products through direct sales and distributors, as well as through its website. Texas Instruments Incorporated was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"TXN\"}}`" }, { "id": 40128, "title": "Will MKC's market close price on 2025-10-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-30?", "short_title": "MKC's close price rises?", "url_title": "MKC's close price rises?", "slug": "mkcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:40.594707Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T14:32:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:04:06.119178Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:40.957057Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:02:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:02:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T22:24:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T22:24:03Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T14:32:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39664, "title": "Will MKC's market close price on 2025-10-16 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-30?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:40.595342Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T14:32:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T16:02:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T16:02:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T22:24:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-16T22:24:03Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:04:04.307905Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:02:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T16:02:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "McCormick & Company, Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MKC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:34) is 65.7. You can find more information about McCormick & Company, Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MKC\n\nMcCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment offers spices, herbs, and seasonings, as well as condiments and sauces, and desserts. This segment markets its products under the McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's, Cholula Hot Sauce, Club House, Gourmet Garden, and OLD BAY brands in the Americas; Ducros, Schwartz, Kamis, LA Drogheria, and Vahiné brands in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and McCormick and DaQiao brands in the Asia/Pacific, as well as markets desserts under the Aeroplane brand and packaged chilled herbs under the Gourmet Garden brand name; and markets regional and ethnic brands, such as Zatarain's, Stubb's, Thai Kitchen, and Simply Asia. It also supplies its products under the private labels. This segment serves retailers comprising grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce retailers directly and indirectly through distributors and wholesale foodservice suppliers. The Flavor Solutions segment offers seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems, and compound flavors to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. It serves foodservice customers directly and indirectly through distributors. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MKC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of MKC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-30, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40128, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759247640.416866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759247640.416866, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5163806818181816 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 4.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 26.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 9.121513856990404, "peer_score": 4.201826623834121, "coverage": 0.9793225255718937, "relative_legacy_score": 0.046155128520812286, "weighted_coverage": 0.9793225255718937, "spot_peer_score": 3.2305861928889086, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "baseline_archived_score": 9.121513856990404, "peer_archived_score": 4.201826623834121, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.046155128520812286, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.2305861928889086, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "McCormick & Company, Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MKC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:34) is 65.7. You can find more information about McCormick & Company, Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MKC\n\nMcCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment offers spices, herbs, and seasonings, as well as condiments and sauces, and desserts. This segment markets its products under the McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's, Cholula Hot Sauce, Club House, Gourmet Garden, and OLD BAY brands in the Americas; Ducros, Schwartz, Kamis, LA Drogheria, and Vahiné brands in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; and McCormick and DaQiao brands in the Asia/Pacific, as well as markets desserts under the Aeroplane brand and packaged chilled herbs under the Gourmet Garden brand name; and markets regional and ethnic brands, such as Zatarain's, Stubb's, Thai Kitchen, and Simply Asia. It also supplies its products under the private labels. This segment serves retailers comprising grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce retailers directly and indirectly through distributors and wholesale foodservice suppliers. The Flavor Solutions segment offers seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems, and compound flavors to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. It serves foodservice customers directly and indirectly through distributors. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MKC\"}}`" }, { "id": 40127, "title": "Will FICO's market close price on 2025-10-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-03?", "short_title": "FICO's close price rises?", "url_title": "FICO's close price rises?", "slug": "ficos-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:39.875449Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T12:40:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T22:04:07.823040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:40.234364Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T14:10:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T14:10:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T18:28:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T18:28:16Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T12:40:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32832, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-29", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-29", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-29T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-10-25T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-08T22:45:42Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-28T03:58:27.801850Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T08:54:34.083772Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39663, "title": "Will FICO's market close price on 2025-10-17 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-03?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T20:53:39.875881Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T12:40:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-03T14:10:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-03T14:10:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T18:28:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-17T18:28:16Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T22:04:06.464571Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T14:10:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T14:10:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fair Isaac Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FICO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:32) is 1518.78. You can find more information about Fair Isaac Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FICO\n\nFair Isaac Corporation develops software with analytics and digital decisioning technologies that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates in two segments, Scores and Software. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. The Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. It offers FICO® Decision Modeler and FICO Blaze Advisor, FICO Xpress Optimization, FICO Analytics Workbench, FICO Data Orchestrator, FICO DMP Streaming, FICO Business Outcome Simulator, FICO Decision Optimizer, FICO TRIAD Customer Manager, FICO Fraud Solutions, FICO Originations, FICO Customer Communication Service, FICO Strategy Director, FICO Analytic Services, FICO Advisors, and FICO Blaze Advisor, as well as software implementation and configuration services. The company markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FICO\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FICO. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-03, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40127, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759500334.868591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759500334.868591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5832624458874459 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 3.0, 6.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -26.506284499602618, "peer_score": 1.409653302359827, "coverage": 0.9581838588802906, "relative_legacy_score": -0.14561329031854175, "weighted_coverage": 0.9581838588802906, "spot_peer_score": 3.2167874049555034, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": -26.506284499602618, "peer_archived_score": 1.409653302359827, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.14561329031854175, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.2167874049555034, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fair Isaac Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FICO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-09-28 13:51:32) is 1518.78. You can find more information about Fair Isaac Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FICO\n\nFair Isaac Corporation develops software with analytics and digital decisioning technologies that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates in two segments, Scores and Software. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to predictive credit and other scores that can be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. The Software segment provides pre-configured analytic and decision management solution designed for various business needs or processes, such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also offers FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. It offers FICO® Decision Modeler and FICO Blaze Advisor, FICO Xpress Optimization, FICO Analytics Workbench, FICO Data Orchestrator, FICO DMP Streaming, FICO Business Outcome Simulator, FICO Decision Optimizer, FICO TRIAD Customer Manager, FICO Fraud Solutions, FICO Originations, FICO Customer Communication Service, FICO Strategy Director, FICO Analytic Services, FICO Advisors, and FICO Blaze Advisor, as well as software implementation and configuration services. The company markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FICO\"}}`" }, { "id": 40108, "title": "Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?", "short_title": "Referendum on euro in Czechia before 2030?", "url_title": "Referendum on euro in Czechia before 2030?", "slug": "referendum-on-euro-in-czechia-before-2030", "author_id": 280037, "author_username": "OptiPes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-28T13:59:33.263759Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T13:55:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:34:49.521299Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-14T13:57:27.165862Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T13:55:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39644, "title": "Will a referendum on adopting the euro be officially announced in the Czech Republic before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-09-28T13:59:33.264317Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T13:55:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-19T13:55:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-19T13:55:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Czech Republic joined the EU in 2004 and has committed *in principle* to adopting the euro once the Maastricht criteria are met. However, public opinion has long been skeptical and political parties are divided: some support adoption, others strongly oppose it or demand a referendum.\n\nA nationwide referendum is not currently possible under ordinary law, as the Czech Republic has no general referendum act. The only nationwide referendum so far (on EU accession in 2003) was held under a one-off constitutional act. Any referendum on euro adoption would therefore require either a new constitutional act on referenda or another one-off constitutional act specifically authorizing it.\n\nFor context:\n\n* [Czech National Bank – Euro adoption](https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/education/6.-euro-adoption/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* [Czech Republic’s euro-area accession strategy (CNB & Ministry of Finance)](https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/inflation-reports/boxes-and-annexes-contained-in-inflation-reports/The-Czech-Republics-euro-area-accession-strategy-00001?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* [Euractiv: Parties divided over euro adoption]()", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2030, a decisive act by the government of the Czech Republic is adopted that sets a date for a referendum on adopting the Euro.", "fine_print": "A \"decisive act\" is defined as any action that has legal effect such as binding law or a constitutional act.\n\nOpinion polls, non-binding parliamentary motions, or public statements do not qualify for this question.", "post_id": 40108, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761070938.386317, "end_time": 1768554425.588, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761070938.386317, "end_time": 1768554425.588, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2652355679384928 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Czech Republic joined the EU in 2004 and has committed *in principle* to adopting the euro once the Maastricht criteria are met. However, public opinion has long been skeptical and political parties are divided: some support adoption, others strongly oppose it or demand a referendum.\n\nA nationwide referendum is not currently possible under ordinary law, as the Czech Republic has no general referendum act. The only nationwide referendum so far (on EU accession in 2003) was held under a one-off constitutional act. Any referendum on euro adoption would therefore require either a new constitutional act on referenda or another one-off constitutional act specifically authorizing it.\n\nFor context:\n\n* [Czech National Bank – Euro adoption](https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/education/6.-euro-adoption/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* [Czech Republic’s euro-area accession strategy (CNB & Ministry of Finance)](https://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary-policy/inflation-reports/boxes-and-annexes-contained-in-inflation-reports/The-Czech-Republics-euro-area-accession-strategy-00001?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* [Euractiv: Parties divided over euro adoption]()" }, { "id": 40053, "title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the US & Venezuela before Mar 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the US & Venezuela before Mar 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-fatal-clash-between-the-us-venezuela-before-mar-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-27T21:39:36.475335Z", "published_at": "2025-09-06T18:08:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T18:07:32.558676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-27T21:40:39.401268Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.322158Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.322158Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39588, "title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-27T21:39:36.475782Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T18:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T18:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Post September 27, 2025: [US preps for attacks against drug lords deep inside Venezuela as tensions flare: report](https://nypost.com/2025/09/27/us-news/us-preps-for-attacks-against-drug-lords-deep-inside-venezuela-as-tensions-flare-report/)\n\n> The Trump administration is reportedly drafting plans to strike drug traffickers inside Venezuela, potentially in weeks, marking a [major escalation from ](https://nypost.com/2025/09/16/world-news/us-info-on-venezuela-drug-boats-likely-coming-from-mexican-cartel-chief-source/)targeting the cartel in boats in the southern Caribbean.\n\n> President Trump has yet to approve any of the attack plans, but the move comes in response to concerns that Venezuela strongman President Nicolas Maduro, has failed to stem the flow of drugs from his country into the US and elsewhere, [NBC News reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-preparing-options-military-strikes-drug-targets-venezuela-sources-s-rcna233734).\n\n> Initial plans include the use of drones to strike leadership and members of drug trafficking cartels as well as labs, according to the report, which cited four sources familiar with the plans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after September 27, 2025 and before March 1, 2026, according to public, [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) there is any fatal clash between personnel of the [United States Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces) and personnel of the [National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bolivarian_Armed_Forces_of_Venezuela) resulting in 1 or more deaths of military personnel on either side. ", "fine_print": "To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as close-quarters combat. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.", "post_id": 40053, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761415642.275684, "end_time": 1761592934.275, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.499 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761415642.275684, "end_time": 1761592934.275, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.499 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5038076787066958 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Post September 27, 2025: [US preps for attacks against drug lords deep inside Venezuela as tensions flare: report](https://nypost.com/2025/09/27/us-news/us-preps-for-attacks-against-drug-lords-deep-inside-venezuela-as-tensions-flare-report/)\n\n> The Trump administration is reportedly drafting plans to strike drug traffickers inside Venezuela, potentially in weeks, marking a [major escalation from ](https://nypost.com/2025/09/16/world-news/us-info-on-venezuela-drug-boats-likely-coming-from-mexican-cartel-chief-source/)targeting the cartel in boats in the southern Caribbean.\n\n> President Trump has yet to approve any of the attack plans, but the move comes in response to concerns that Venezuela strongman President Nicolas Maduro, has failed to stem the flow of drugs from his country into the US and elsewhere, [NBC News reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-preparing-options-military-strikes-drug-targets-venezuela-sources-s-rcna233734).\n\n> Initial plans include the use of drones to strike leadership and members of drug trafficking cartels as well as labs, according to the report, which cited four sources familiar with the plans." }, { "id": 40052, "title": "Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?", "short_title": "French protest with 600k participants before 2026?", "url_title": "French protest with 600k participants before 2026?", "slug": "french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-26T23:46:13.595717Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T23:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T23:26:38.075347Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-04T00:00:06.086130Z", "comment_count": 39, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 144, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:12:14.694406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:12:14.694406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39587, "title": "Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-26T23:46:13.596110Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n\nAfter a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**", "post_id": 40052, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761434787.649759, "end_time": 1761588397.567, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.195 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761434787.649759, "end_time": 1761588397.567, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17743612615067342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.004541723449504015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001154680008281835, 0.04978706836786394, 1.3455057246259332, 0.0, 0.3243305309355069, 0.8002271235150558, 0.8942180920825968, 0.3389928580648341, 0.6721766714411463, 1.5403503649810082, 0.02022207425341368, 1.4198210509599072, 2.274755407951797, 0.0, 0.768545791507254, 1.8059156314853553, 0.5577055663009924, 0.6467911847853551, 0.0, 0.035230091731851175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8212645090084038, 0.7562092008147058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21943807023132875, 0.0, 0.014933198210305589, 0.0034020563898552146, 0.0, 0.15589515649005067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2674415470750466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003942665013892356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007620644183175067, 0.44279550561171177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009647069809170485, 0.01655577137417877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013439135885649942, 0.0, 0.004243600862214341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18502006442074057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07450598937243832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008157444388045044 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 486, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n\nAfter a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html)." }, { "id": 40039, "title": "Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?", "short_title": "Dutch unemployment to rise above 5% in 2025?", "url_title": "Dutch unemployment to rise above 5% in 2025?", "slug": "dutch-unemployment-to-rise-above-5-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-25T22:45:46.314068Z", "published_at": "2025-09-28T10:07:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T11:38:00.146799Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-25T22:45:46.556739Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-28T10:07:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39578, "title": "Will the Dutch unemployment rate rise above 5% in any month of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-25T22:45:46.314489Z", "open_time": "2025-09-28T10:07:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T11:37:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The unemployment rate in the Netherlands is published monthly by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. In recent years, the rate has been relatively low, hovering between 3–4%. However, changes in the global economy, energy prices, or government policy could push it higher.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39889,\"question_id\":39434}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports an unemployment rate >5.0% in any month of 2025.", "fine_print": "For this question, “unemployment rate” refers to the CBS definition, available [here](https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/detail/80590eng). \n\nSpecifically: StatLine table 80590ENG, Unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted (%)", "post_id": 40039, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759058643.382378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759058643.382378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12445444059417667 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 4.0, 5.0, 9.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The unemployment rate in the Netherlands is published monthly by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. In recent years, the rate has been relatively low, hovering between 3–4%. However, changes in the global economy, energy prices, or government policy could push it higher.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39889,\"question_id\":39434}}`" }, { "id": 40033, "title": "Will Patrice Motsepe be elected President of South Africa before 2065?", "short_title": "Will Patrice Motsepe be President of South Africa?", "url_title": "Will Patrice Motsepe be President of South Africa?", "slug": "will-patrice-motsepe-be-president-of-south-africa", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-25T10:11:59.675502Z", "published_at": "2025-10-11T14:30:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:35:10.055863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-11T14:30:52.148525Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2064-06-30T09:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2065-01-01T10:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-12T14:30:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39574, "title": "Will Patrice Motsepe be elected President of South Africa before 2065?", "created_at": "2025-09-25T10:11:59.675932Z", "open_time": "2025-10-12T14:30:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-16T14:30:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-16T14:30:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2065-01-01T10:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2064-06-30T09:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2064-06-30T09:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Patrice Tlhopane Motsepe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrice_Motsepe) is a South African billionaire businessman, born in 1962. As of October 2025, he is the President of the Confederation of African Football, a position he has held since March 2021. In recent months, there has been [reporting](https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/anc-insiders-pushing-patrice-motsepe-for-president-report/ar-AA1Eb3Mr) that members of the [African National Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_National_Congress) (ANC) are supporting Motsepe for a presidential bid in the upcoming 2029 general election, to [succeed the term-limited Cyril Ramaphosa](https://www.theafricareport.com/383335/exclusive-patrice-motsepe-leaves-presidential-question-hanging/), who is also Motsepe's brother in law. The ANC has [governed the country without interruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_South_Africa#Presidents_of_South_Africa_since_1994) since the end of apartheid in 1994.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2065, Patrice Motsepe is elected President of South Africa by the South African Parliament during a general election cycle.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760453325.093388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760453325.093388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.55 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Patrice Tlhopane Motsepe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrice_Motsepe) is a South African billionaire businessman, born in 1962. As of October 2025, he is the President of the Confederation of African Football, a position he has held since March 2021. In recent months, there has been [reporting](https://www.msn.com/en-za/news/other/anc-insiders-pushing-patrice-motsepe-for-president-report/ar-AA1Eb3Mr) that members of the [African National Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_National_Congress) (ANC) are supporting Motsepe for a presidential bid in the upcoming 2029 general election, to [succeed the term-limited Cyril Ramaphosa](https://www.theafricareport.com/383335/exclusive-patrice-motsepe-leaves-presidential-question-hanging/), who is also Motsepe's brother in law. The ANC has [governed the country without interruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_South_Africa#Presidents_of_South_Africa_since_1994) since the end of apartheid in 1994." }, { "id": 40032, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "short_title": "Will a non-top-10 player make the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "url_title": "Will a non-top-10 player make the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "slug": "will-a-non-top-10-player-make-the-2025-fide-world-cup-final", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-25T09:28:31.789521Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T12:35:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T11:34:44.583998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-03T12:35:36.631362Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-04T12:35:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39573, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "created_at": "2025-09-25T09:28:31.789944Z", "open_time": "2025-10-04T12:35:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T20:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T20:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The FIDE World Cup is a large, single-elimination (knockout) chess tournament that forms [a key part of the Candidates/World Championship cycle](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/WorldCup2025Regulations.pdf): the top three finishers in the Open section qualify for the Candidates Tournament.\n\nRounds in the Cup consist of head-to-head matches of two classical games, followed by rapid/blitz/Armageddon tie-breaks when required. The tournament bracket gives the top 50 seeds a bye into round 2, increasing the number of high-variance matches among lower seeds in early rounds.\n\nBecause the World Cup is a knockout event with many matches decided by the shorter time-control tie-breaks, upsets are common and lower-seeded players frequently make deep runs. In [the last edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2023), Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa (seed #31) reached the final and Nijat Abasov (seed #69) came fourth.\n\nThe [2025 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2025) will be held in Goa, India, from 31 October to 27 November 2025, and will feature 206 players.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the two finalists in the 2025 FIDE Chess World Cup is seeded outside the top 10 according to the official FIDE seeding list [published before the start of the event](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/WorldCup2025Regulations.pdf).", "fine_print": "The seeding list is expected to be based on the October 2025 ratings, meaning that the top 10 seeds would be:\n\n1. Gukesh D (as the world chess champion)\n2. Arjun Erigaisi\n3. R. Praggnanandhaa\n4. Anish Giri\n5. Wesley So\n6. Vincent Keymer\n7. Wei Yi\n8. Nodirbek Abdusattorov\n9. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov\n10. Hans Moke Niemann\n\nHowever, this question will resolve based on the list published by FIDE, even if it differs from the above rankings.", "post_id": 40032, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761392074.397816, "end_time": 1761649385.583, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761392074.397816, "end_time": 1761649385.583, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49513800307954026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5198669798340685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The FIDE World Cup is a large, single-elimination (knockout) chess tournament that forms [a key part of the Candidates/World Championship cycle](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/WorldCup2025Regulations.pdf): the top three finishers in the Open section qualify for the Candidates Tournament.\n\nRounds in the Cup consist of head-to-head matches of two classical games, followed by rapid/blitz/Armageddon tie-breaks when required. The tournament bracket gives the top 50 seeds a bye into round 2, increasing the number of high-variance matches among lower seeds in early rounds.\n\nBecause the World Cup is a knockout event with many matches decided by the shorter time-control tie-breaks, upsets are common and lower-seeded players frequently make deep runs. In [the last edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2023), Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa (seed #31) reached the final and Nijat Abasov (seed #69) came fourth.\n\nThe [2025 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2025) will be held in Goa, India, from 31 October to 27 November 2025, and will feature 206 players." }, { "id": 40031, "title": "Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?", "short_title": "US bailout Argentina 2025?", "url_title": "US bailout Argentina 2025?", "slug": "us-bailout-argentina-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-25T08:38:07.421023Z", "published_at": "2025-09-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.034613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-25T10:00:31.134116Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 159, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:12:14.694406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:12:14.694406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39572, "title": "Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-25T08:38:07.421480Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n\nIn the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n\nDuring Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n\nPrior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n\nIn September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n\n* Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n* Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n* Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40031, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761437042.618736, "end_time": 1761448151.37, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761437042.618736, "end_time": 1761448151.37, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7169412049077357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024180497307793418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.762224791533942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16971002120266612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6453940649182194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1675024122700364, 0.5435784905528189, 0.19277466612226013, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2551849419627288, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3071089706704644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04964668129335581, 3.3549358114538577, 0.0, 0.14790567107868602, 0.0, 0.07286294118530495, 2.3304679717573515, 0.0, 0.12047939913999373, 1.1489877138780686, 0.30018970671771467, 0.09847420066039926, 0.0, 0.10473611934045865, 0.24904414230524893, 0.26517135135016334, 0.5362493089717376, 0.15817325761837261, 0.09079275177630637, 0.28220506123837086, 0.06266573143841023, 0.25489783209538014, 0.04384029349418964, 0.09858517194394771, 0.05322018319510214, 0.29208448629784733 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 888, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n\nIn the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n\nDuring Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n\nPrior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n\nIn September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina." }, { "id": 40026, "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled at the federal level in the US before 2030?", "short_title": "Marijuana rescheduled before 2030?", "url_title": "Marijuana rescheduled before 2030?", "slug": "marijuana-rescheduled-before-2030", "author_id": 134352, "author_username": "Tristan_Williams", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-23T20:18:31.812699Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T00:49:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T20:59:33.344189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-09T00:50:10.714870Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-10T00:49:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39568, "title": "Will marijuana be rescheduled at the federal level in the US before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-09-23T20:18:31.813152Z", "open_time": "2025-10-10T00:49:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T00:49:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T00:49:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marijuana is currently a [schedule I substance](https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling) in the United States, meaning that significant punishments can be imposed on those who contribute to the production or distribution of it, as well as those who possess or use the drug. Schedule I substances are defined as drugs which have \"no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.\" Given the rise of medicinal use of marijuana, many have called for its rescheduling. [As of October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), 40 states have legalized medical use of marijuana, and 24 have legalized its recreational use. \n\nThe Drug Enforcement Administration [is currently](https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-biden-dea-criminal-justice-pot-f833a8dae6ceb31a8658a5d65832a3b8) in the process of rescheduling marijuana, a process which started in April 2024, but there have been multiple legislative attempts to block it. For example, on September 10, 2025, the House Appropriations Committee [approved](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/gop-led-congressional-committee-votes-to-block-trump-from-rescheduling-marijuana/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) legislation that would significantly limit (or even prevent) the DEA's ability to reclassify marijuana.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the United States federal government reschedules marijuana to any other schedule level [(i.e., schedule II, III, IV, V)](https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling) or deschedules it entirely.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40026, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760734762.669069, "end_time": 1768273459.355, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760734762.669069, "end_time": 1768273459.355, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.45386031994295567 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marijuana is currently a [schedule I substance](https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling) in the United States, meaning that significant punishments can be imposed on those who contribute to the production or distribution of it, as well as those who possess or use the drug. Schedule I substances are defined as drugs which have \"no currently accepted medical use and a high potential for abuse.\" Given the rise of medicinal use of marijuana, many have called for its rescheduling. [As of October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), 40 states have legalized medical use of marijuana, and 24 have legalized its recreational use. \n\nThe Drug Enforcement Administration [is currently](https://apnews.com/article/marijuana-biden-dea-criminal-justice-pot-f833a8dae6ceb31a8658a5d65832a3b8) in the process of rescheduling marijuana, a process which started in April 2024, but there have been multiple legislative attempts to block it. For example, on September 10, 2025, the House Appropriations Committee [approved](https://www.marijuanamoment.net/gop-led-congressional-committee-votes-to-block-trump-from-rescheduling-marijuana/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) legislation that would significantly limit (or even prevent) the DEA's ability to reclassify marijuana." }, { "id": 40022, "title": "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?", "short_title": "Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?", "url_title": "Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?", "slug": "stronger-2025-atlantic-hurricane-than-erin", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.767769Z", "published_at": "2025-09-27T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-27T17:00:00.188332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.975140Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-27T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39566, "title": "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?", "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.768229Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n\nStill, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).", "post_id": 40022, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758992040.28797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758992040.28797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27531744148850923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 17.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [Saffir–Simpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n\nStill, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39771,\"question_id\":39214}}`" }, { "id": 40020, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-before-october-2-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:00.875900Z", "published_at": "2025-09-27T11:34:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T20:34:13.066497Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:01.106918Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T11:34:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39564, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-23T03:48:00.876412Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T11:34:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-06T16:35:36.384709Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T13:04:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40011,\"question_id\":39556}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 2, 2025, the United States federal government is in [shut down furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#url=Shutdown-Furlough) status, as announced by the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40020, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758976556.3045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758976556.3045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7023168997094549 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 18.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.59407301608819, "peer_score": 7.075212916609485, "coverage": 0.9890590237246619, "relative_legacy_score": 0.14597664442184655, "weighted_coverage": 0.9890590237246619, "spot_peer_score": 7.973527593628057, "spot_baseline_score": 56.55971758542251, "baseline_archived_score": 56.59407301608819, "peer_archived_score": 7.075212916609485, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.14597664442184655, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.973527593628057, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.55971758542251 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40011,\"question_id\":39556}}`" }, { "id": 40015, "title": "Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 points before it next closes below 6,000?", "short_title": "S&P 500 closes above 7,000 or below 6,000 first?", "url_title": "S&P 500 closes above 7,000 or below 6,000 first?", "slug": "sp-500-closes-above-7000-or-below-6000-first", "author_id": 131523, "author_username": "RMD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-22T23:51:02.694715Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T00:10:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T14:49:42.546088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T00:10:44.769665Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-23T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39559, "title": "Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 points before it next closes below 6,000?", "created_at": "2025-09-22T23:51:02.695212Z", "open_time": "2025-09-23T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T00:10:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T00:10:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [S\\&P 500](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S\\&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.\n\nSee also from Fortune: [S\\&P 500 will hit 7,000 by early 2026, JPMorgan argues, as stocks climb ‘wall of worry’](https://fortune.com/2025/09/10/sp-500-7000-stocks-wall-of-worry/)\n\nFrom SeekingAlpha:[ ](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[S\\&P 500: 5 Signs Flashing Yellow](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[Enough Is Enough: AI Is Driving Us To Sell Our S\\&P 500 Position](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813046-enough-is-enough-ai-is-driving-us-to-sell-our-s-and-p-500-position)\n\n[Markets: Bullish Vs. Bearish Case](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4824762-markets-bullish-vs-bearish-case)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after September 22, 2025, the S\\&P 500 closes above 7,000 points before it first closes below 6,000 points, according to the Close column on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). It resolves as **No** if, after September 22, 2025, it closes below 6,000 points before first closing above 7,000 points.", "fine_print": "If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n\nThe resolution source at Yahoo! Finance can be found under the \"Historical data\" tab and \"Close\" price column. (Predictors should ignore the \"Adj. Close\" price column.) \n\nThis question will be **annulled** if the S\\&P 500 neither closes below 6,000 points nor above 7,000 points after September 22, 2025 and before January 1, 2028.", "post_id": 40015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761317371.741022, "end_time": 1765894530.78, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761317371.741022, "end_time": 1765894530.78, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6512925972750501 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [S\\&P 500](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S\\&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.\n\nSee also from Fortune: [S\\&P 500 will hit 7,000 by early 2026, JPMorgan argues, as stocks climb ‘wall of worry’](https://fortune.com/2025/09/10/sp-500-7000-stocks-wall-of-worry/)\n\nFrom SeekingAlpha:[ ](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[S\\&P 500: 5 Signs Flashing Yellow](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4815338-s-and-p-500-5-signs-flashing-yellow)\n\n[Enough Is Enough: AI Is Driving Us To Sell Our S\\&P 500 Position](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4813046-enough-is-enough-ai-is-driving-us-to-sell-our-s-and-p-500-position)\n\n[Markets: Bullish Vs. Bearish Case](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4824762-markets-bullish-vs-bearish-case)" }, { "id": 40013, "title": "Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?", "short_title": "Will Bukele rule for life?", "url_title": "Will Bukele rule for life?", "slug": "will-bukele-rule-for-life", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-22T21:33:04.968895Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T10:24:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T21:05:35.632536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T10:25:23.458134Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:24:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39557, "title": "Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?", "created_at": "2025-09-22T21:33:04.969419Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T10:24:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T09:24:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T09:24:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?*\n\nSince assuming office in 2019, President **Nayib Bukele** has consolidated significant authority in El Salvador, combining aggressive anti-gang enforcement with sweeping institutional reforms. His crackdown on gang violence—[<u>from a homicide rate of 38 per 100,000 in 2019 to one of the lowest in the region by 202</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele?)4—has cemented his popularity, even as mass detentions and state-of-emergency powers raised concerns about human rights and due process.\n\nIn a major shift this year, Bukele’s **New Ideas** party leveraged its supermajority in the Legislative Assembly to pass a constitutional [**<u>amendment on July 31, 2025</u>**<u>, allowing **indefinite presidential re-election**,</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election) extending the term from five to six years, eliminating runoff elections, and synchronizing future electoral cycles. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor—**57 to 3**, with minimal public debate or opposition participation.\n\nThese reforms have sparked alarm from human rights bodies, opposition lawmakers, and international observers. [<u>The **Inter‑American Commission on Human Rights** labeled the changes a setback for democracy</u>](https://ticotimes.net/2025/08/09/el-salvador-opposition-challenges-bukele-indefinite-reelection), while opposition figures and groups like Human Rights Watch warned that the erosion of term limits reflects a slide toward authoritarianism.\n\nBukele’s political dominance has also involved dismantling institutional checks: in 2021, his allies purged the Supreme Court’s Constitutional Chamber, enabling controversial judicial rulings—including allowing his re-election in 2024 despite previous constitutional bans—which critics say undermined democratic norms\n\nWith the next presidential election now scheduled for **February 28, 2027**, Bukele is constitutionally cleared to seek additional terms beyond that, [<u>making it feasible that he could remain in power for life</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election)—depending on political developments, possible legal challenges, or electoral outcomes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Nayib Bukele remains in office as President of El Salvador until his death.", "fine_print": "Temporary leaves of absence (such as medical leave) while remaining constitutionally recognized president will not resolve this question.\n\nIf Nayib Bukele dies before 2035, and has remained in office up until then, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 40013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761339924.623455, "end_time": 1768687240.363, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761339924.623455, "end_time": 1768687240.363, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11605126950359837 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Nayib Bukele Rule El Salvador for Life?*\n\nSince assuming office in 2019, President **Nayib Bukele** has consolidated significant authority in El Salvador, combining aggressive anti-gang enforcement with sweeping institutional reforms. His crackdown on gang violence—[<u>from a homicide rate of 38 per 100,000 in 2019 to one of the lowest in the region by 202</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nayib_Bukele?)4—has cemented his popularity, even as mass detentions and state-of-emergency powers raised concerns about human rights and due process.\n\nIn a major shift this year, Bukele’s **New Ideas** party leveraged its supermajority in the Legislative Assembly to pass a constitutional [**<u>amendment on July 31, 2025</u>**<u>, allowing **indefinite presidential re-election**,</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election) extending the term from five to six years, eliminating runoff elections, and synchronizing future electoral cycles. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor—**57 to 3**, with minimal public debate or opposition participation.\n\nThese reforms have sparked alarm from human rights bodies, opposition lawmakers, and international observers. [<u>The **Inter‑American Commission on Human Rights** labeled the changes a setback for democracy</u>](https://ticotimes.net/2025/08/09/el-salvador-opposition-challenges-bukele-indefinite-reelection), while opposition figures and groups like Human Rights Watch warned that the erosion of term limits reflects a slide toward authoritarianism.\n\nBukele’s political dominance has also involved dismantling institutional checks: in 2021, his allies purged the Supreme Court’s Constitutional Chamber, enabling controversial judicial rulings—including allowing his re-election in 2024 despite previous constitutional bans—which critics say undermined democratic norms\n\nWith the next presidential election now scheduled for **February 28, 2027**, Bukele is constitutionally cleared to seek additional terms beyond that, [<u>making it feasible that he could remain in power for life</u>](https://constitutionnet.org/news/voices/term-limits-no-limits-el-salvadors-constitutional-reform-presidential-re-election)—depending on political developments, possible legal challenges, or electoral outcomes." }, { "id": 40011, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-be-shut-down-before-october-2-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:49.886738Z", "published_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T06:11:28.455283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-22T13:05:24.868230Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.322158Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.322158Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39556, "title": "Will the US government be shut down before October 2, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-22T13:04:49.887232Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-26T12:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-26T12:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-01T08:09:03.608609Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 2, 2025, the United States federal government is in [shut down furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#url=Shutdown-Furlough) status, as announced by the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759279831.749806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759279831.749806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8732581662515931 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41887897082677805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20794218954840368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1664766545233207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42045387421329744, 0.2579261536198105, 0.0, 0.010533797021803945, 0.0, 0.4151010611874172, 0.0, 0.08126255146963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5775167969492991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7427540267039733, 0.0, 0.8059925608626395, 0.0, 0.5390361272362366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21513360951852367, 0.3403841164406407, 0.0, 0.8359805140137624, 0.0, 2.8078985190752612, 0.0, 0.4446905342845983, 0.4747323889921012, 0.0, 1.5822944667850665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7392557304732013, 3.2720344449033356 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -30.069226736231712, "peer_score": 12.319573316174838, "coverage": 0.9248042789191053, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9471743524889474, "spot_peer_score": 1.1982174883018595, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": -30.069226736231712, "peer_archived_score": 12.319573316174838, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1982174883018595, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Politico September 22, 2025: [Tables turn for Democrats as they use shutdown for leverage](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/democrats-shutdown-leverage-00574029)\n\n> On one side is the minority party, using what little leverage it has — a looming government funding deadline — to push for priorities it can’t enact otherwise. On the other is the majority, insisting a short-term funding punt is no place for negotiation.\n\n> If that sounds familiar, that’s because just such a scenario has played out dozens of times on Capitol Hill over the past decade and a half — usually with Republicans pushing for policy concessions and Democrats insisting on a “clean” stopgap.\n\n> Not this time. The roles have been reversed between the two parties as Congress [barrels toward a government shutdown](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/19/government-shutdown-standoff-senate-vote-00573168) on Oct. 1 with no obvious off-ramp in sight.\n\nThe Hill September 19, 2025: [Trump predicts government could shut down ‘for a period of time’](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5513157-trump-predicts-government-shutdown/)\n\n> President Trump on Friday predicted the government would shut down “for a period of time” amid an impasse in the Senate between Republicans and Democrats.\n\n> Trump expressed some pessimism about the two sides reaching an agreement that can garner 60 votes in the Senate. Republicans have 53 seats in the chamber, meaning at least seven Democrats will need to support a funding measure to keep the government open." }, { "id": 39998, "title": "Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?", "short_title": "Will California's Proposition 50 pass in the 2025 election?", "url_title": "Will California's Proposition 50 pass in the 2025 election?", "slug": "will-californias-proposition-50-pass-in-the-2025-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.305579Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T19:48:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:19:00.476788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.523079Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-21T19:48:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39539, "title": "Will California's Proposition 50 (allowing redistricting of House seats) pass in the 2025 election?", "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.306259Z", "open_time": "2025-09-21T19:48:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-21T21:18:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2025, Texas [gerrymandered](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/23/texas-passes-congressional-map-gerrymander-00519116) its electoral map to gain Republicans five seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (though as Nate Silver [points out](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting), there are scenarios in which the gains may be less). This has set off a [redistricting tit for tat](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting), with California governor Gavin Newsom planning its own redistricting to offset it. \n\nThe new electoral map, which was passed by California's legislature in August 2025, is [required](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-redistricting-gavin-newsom-vote/) by California law to be approved by voters. There has been opposition, such as former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger [campaiging](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/09/16/why-the-governator-could-derail-prop-50-00565187) against the measure. A recent poll [found](https://norcalpublicmedia.org/2025082698963/news-feed/uc-berkeley-poll-finds-more-california-voters-support-prop-50-than-oppose) California likely voters supporting the measure 48-32.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39989,\"question_id\":39530}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 50 passes in the state's 2025 election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.", "post_id": 39998, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758487048.650337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758487048.650337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6550942167519502 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2025, Texas [gerrymandered](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/08/23/texas-passes-congressional-map-gerrymander-00519116) its electoral map to gain Republicans five seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections (though as Nate Silver [points out](https://www.natesilver.net/p/how-many-seats-will-texas-redistricting), there are scenarios in which the gains may be less). This has set off a [redistricting tit for tat](https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-can-win-the-redistricting), with California governor Gavin Newsom planning its own redistricting to offset it. \n\nThe new electoral map, which was passed by California's legislature in August 2025, is [required](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/california-redistricting-gavin-newsom-vote/) by California law to be approved by voters. There has been opposition, such as former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger [campaiging](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2025/09/16/why-the-governator-could-derail-prop-50-00565187) against the measure. A recent poll [found](https://norcalpublicmedia.org/2025082698963/news-feed/uc-berkeley-poll-finds-more-california-voters-support-prop-50-than-oppose) California likely voters supporting the measure 48-32.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39989,\"question_id\":39530}}`" }, { "id": 39996, "title": "Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any of these US federal government officials be out before October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will any of these US federal government officials be out before October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-any-of-these-us-federal-government-officials-be-out-before-october-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:23.443408Z", "published_at": "2025-09-19T23:19:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-07T10:21:08.015250Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:23.643020Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T23:19:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T15:52:17.517918Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39537, "title": "Will any of these listed US federal government officials be out of their position before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:23.443876Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T23:19:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-20T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-06T16:35:37.006092Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-20T00:49:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump's first administration was notable for a [striking](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) amount of turnover in all four years. By contrast, Joe Biden's turnover rate [was](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-biden-administration/) much lower, with Trump [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-trump-first-presidential-debate-2024-election/card/trump-knocks-biden-for-not-firing-people-bwM4mGEdjjjYg5HwlKgV?gaa_at=eafs\\&gaa_n=ASWzDAiUmOXBO10XWmUng3R_zrqM9BR9qeSdR3zfF6MQ7m2AR-P20BPm-8Z8-SBTyU0%3D\\&gaa_ts=68c81fb5\\&gaa_sig=hGGYBoZMnGNabxhc0G0oi3qVxtuXdYbiiurZiH7JJpYh29wtQmJquKm7366ubo2H78dIPSTtOduasHthbVDAaQ%3D%3D) about Biden, \"He doesn’t fire people. I’ve never seen him fire people.\" Trump's second term, similar to his first, has been [marked](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/trump-turnover-2-0-tracking-whos-out-of-trumps-second-term) by sometimes rapid departures. Throughout the federal government, over 50,000 workers [had been let go](https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg) by the new administration as of July 2025. See also the [Trump firings tracker](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/tracking-trumps-unprecedented-often-illegal-firings-of-political-appointees-and-watchdogs/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39892,\"question_id\":39437}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any of the officials listed in the Fine Print leaves their position, announces they will leave their position, or whose employer announces that they have left or will leave their position, after September 14, 2025 and before October 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The list (with 100 roles) is as follows:\n\n| Cabinet Secretary | Incumbent |\n| --------------------------- | --------------------- |\n| State | Marco Rubio |\n| Treasury | Scott Bessent |\n| War | Peter Hegseth |\n| Justice (Attorney General) | Pamela (Pam) Bondi |\n| Interior | Doug Burgum |\n| Labor | Lori Chavez‑DeRemer |\n| Health & Human Services | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. |\n| Commerce | Howard Lutnick |\n| Education | Linda McMahon |\n| Homeland Security | Kristi Noem |\n| Agriculture | Brooke Rollins |\n| Transportation | Sean Duffy |\n| Housing & Urban Development | Eric Scott Turner |\n| Energy | Christopher Wright |\n| Veterans Affairs | Doug Collins |\n\n| Cabinet-level positions | Incumbent |\n| ------------------------------------- | -------------- |\n| Director of National Intelligence | Tulsi Gabbard |\n| Director, Central Intelligence Agency | John Ratcliffe |\n| U.S. Trade Representative | Jamieson Greer |\n| EPA Administrator | Lee Zeldin |\n| SBA Administrator | Kelly Loeffler |\n| OMB Director | Russell Vought |\n| U.N. Ambassador | Dorothy Shea |\n\n| Employer & Title | Incumbent |\n| ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------- |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Chair | Paul S. Atkins |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Hester M. Peirce |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Caroline A. Crenshaw |\n| Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner | Mark T. Uyeda |\n| Federal Trade Commission Chair | Andrew N. Ferguson |\n| Federal Trade Commission Commissioner | Melissa Holyoak |\n| Federal Trade Commission Commissioner | Mark R. Meador |\n| Federal Communications Commission Chair | Brendan Carr |\n| Federal Communications Commission Commissioner | Anna M. Gomez |\n| Federal Communications Commission Commissioner | Olivia Trusty |\n| Director of the National Security Agency (NSA) | William J. Hartman |\n| Commodity Futures Trading Commission Acting Chair | Caroline D. Pham |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chair | David Rosner |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Lindsay S. See |\n| Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Judy W. Chang |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chair | David A. Wright |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Annie Caputo |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Bradley R. Crowell |\n| Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commissioner | Matthew J. Marzano |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | James E. \"Trey\" Trainor III |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | Shana M. Broussard |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | James E. \"Trey\" Trainor III |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chair | Jerome H. Powell |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair | Philip N. Jefferson |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Vice Chair for Supervision | Michelle W. Bowman |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Michael S. Barr |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Lisa D. Cook |\n| Federal Reserve Board of Governors Governor | Christopher J. Waller |\n| White House Chief of Staff | Susie Wiles |\n| White House Press Secretary | Karoline Leavitt |\n| DOJ (FBI) Director | Kash Patel |\n| DOJ (FBI) Deputy Director | Dan Bongino |\n| Office of Science and Technology Policy Director | Michael Kratsios |\n| White House National Security Advisor | Marco Rubio |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Director & Deputy Administrator | Caprice Knapp |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Deputy Director | Anne Marie Costello |\n| HHS (CMS) CMCS Deputy Director | Sara Vitolo |\n| Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) | John Ratcliffe |\n| DHS (FEMA) Acting Administrator | David Richardson |\n| HHS (CDC) Director | Susan Monarez |\n| National Institutes of Health Chief Scientific Officer | Leighton Chan |\n| Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Chief Science Officer | Althea Grant-Lenzy |\n| NASA Acting Administrator | Sean Duffy |\n| Executive Office (DOGE) Administrator | Amy Gleason |\n| OMB Deputy Director | Dan Bishop |\n| OMB Deputy Director for Management | Eric Ueland |\n| Library of Congress Register of Copyrights | Shira Perlmutter |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Food Safety | Jose Emilio Esteban |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Natural Resources & Environment | Homer Wilkes |\n| USDA Under Secretary of Agriculture for Rural Development | Basil Gooden |\n| National Technical Information Service Director | Jeremiah Jones |\n| Bureau of Economic Analysis Director | Vipin Arora |\n| US Patent & Trademark Office Director | Coke Morgan Stewart |\n| US Patent & Trademark Office Deputy Director | Will Covey |\n| National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chief Scientist | Steve Thur |\n| NOAA Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services | Stephen Volz |\n| NOAA National Ocean Service Director | Nicole LeBoeuf |\n| National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director | Michael Farrar |\n| National Weather Service Director | Ken Graham |\n| National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center Director | Wassila Thiaw |\n| NWS National Hurricane Center Director | Michael Brennan |\n| Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Assistant Secretary | Michael Goff |\n| DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Assistant Secretary | Brad Crabtree |\n| Government National Mortgage Association Senior Vice President | Gregory A. Keith |\n| U.S. Geological Survey Director | Sarah J. Ryker |\n| U.S. Geological Survey Chief Scientist | David Applegate |\n| Bureau of Land Management Principal Deputy Director | Bill Groffy |\n| OSHA Acting Assistant Secretary of Labor | Amanda Wood Laihow |\n| Bureau of Labor Statistics Deputy Commissioner | William J. Wiatrowski |\n| Federal Highway Administration Executive Director | Gloria Shepherd |\n| Food & Drug Administration Chief Scientist | Steven Kozlowski |\n| Environmental Protection Agency Chief Scientist | Maureen Gwinn |\n| National Science Foundation Chief of Staff | Brian Stone |\n| National Science Foundation Chief Science Officer | Simon Malcomber |\n| Internal Revenue Service Commissioner | Scott Bessent |\n| Federal Election Commission Chair | Shana M. Broussard |\n| Federal Election Commission Commissioner | Dara Lindenbaum |\n| Securities & Exchange Commission Commissioner | Caroline Crenshaw |\n\nTerminations (e.g., being fired by President Trump) only count if the individual is out of their position as delineated in the main Resolution Criteria. For example, Lisa Cook, who Trump [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-fires-federal-reserve-board-member-lisa-cook/) he fired in August 2025, as of September 14, 2025 is [litigating](https://apnews.com/article/trump-lisa-cook-federal-reserve-779e2c05762400b5134cd1543b0358ae) her termination and is still [listed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/cook.htm) as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Thus, she is not considered to be out of her position for purposes of this question.\n\nBeing placed on administrative leave, as has [occurred](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stephen-volz-98b6a3b1_dear-colleagues-i-didnt-expect-to-be-communicating-activity-7355653642575572992-ZG3x/) with NOAA's Satellite and Information Systems Director Stephen Volz, does not count as long as the individual continues to be legally employed in the role. \n\nIf a listed individual is Acting in the role, it is treated as a synonym for being in the role itself. For example, Dorothy Shea is the acting United States Ambassador to the United Nations, a position that requires confirmation by the US Senate, and for purposes of this question she is treated as being in the role. \n\nPromotion within the same agency, such being promoted from Deputy Director to Director, counts as long as the individual leaves the old role as defined in the Resolution Criteria.", "post_id": 39996, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758328516.602262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758328516.602262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.36740187490270326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -76.08290265997063, "peer_score": 2.583060771988601, "coverage": 0.9790585742614888, "relative_legacy_score": -0.18433169965806567, "weighted_coverage": 0.9790585742614888, "spot_peer_score": 1.950547819981212, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -76.08290265997063, "peer_archived_score": 2.583060771988601, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.18433169965806567, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.950547819981212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump's first administration was notable for a [striking](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) amount of turnover in all four years. By contrast, Joe Biden's turnover rate [was](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-biden-administration/) much lower, with Trump [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/biden-trump-first-presidential-debate-2024-election/card/trump-knocks-biden-for-not-firing-people-bwM4mGEdjjjYg5HwlKgV?gaa_at=eafs\\&gaa_n=ASWzDAiUmOXBO10XWmUng3R_zrqM9BR9qeSdR3zfF6MQ7m2AR-P20BPm-8Z8-SBTyU0%3D\\&gaa_ts=68c81fb5\\&gaa_sig=hGGYBoZMnGNabxhc0G0oi3qVxtuXdYbiiurZiH7JJpYh29wtQmJquKm7366ubo2H78dIPSTtOduasHthbVDAaQ%3D%3D) about Biden, \"He doesn’t fire people. I’ve never seen him fire people.\" Trump's second term, similar to his first, has been [marked](https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/trump-turnover-2-0-tracking-whos-out-of-trumps-second-term) by sometimes rapid departures. Throughout the federal government, over 50,000 workers [had been let go](https://www.cnn.com/politics/tracking-federal-workforce-firings-dg) by the new administration as of July 2025. See also the [Trump firings tracker](https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-reports/tracking-trumps-unprecedented-often-illegal-firings-of-political-appointees-and-watchdogs/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39892,\"question_id\":39437}}`" }, { "id": 39993, "title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "short_title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "url_title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "slug": "will-time-magazine-name-a-human-individual-as-its-2025-person-of-the-year", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-16T23:25:54.351491Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T00:09:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T19:30:48.807571Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-17T00:10:32.582782Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-12T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-13T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-18T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.322158Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T00:04:13.322158Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39533, "title": "Will Time Magazine name a human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year?", "created_at": "2025-09-16T23:25:54.351886Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-20T00:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-20T00:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-13T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-12T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-12T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For base rate information, please see Wikipedia [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year). Prediction markets such as [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtime/times-person-of-the-year/kxtime-25) have, at the time of this question, assigned a 38% probability to the non-human entities of AI or ChatGPT winning in 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Time Magazine names a specific human individual as its 2025 Person of the Year. ", "fine_print": "Other situations in which Time does not name a specific human individual do not count and would resolve this question as **No**. For example:\n\n* AI or ChatGPT would not count, as they are not human.\n* Non-human selections such as The Endangered Earth (from 1988) or The Computer (from 1982) do not count.\n* Collective entities such as The Silence Breakers (2017) or The Guardians (2018) do not count.\n* Non-specific humans such as You (2006) or The Protester (2011) do not count.\n* Concepts such as The Spirit of Ukraine (2022) do not count.\n\nIf Time names a specific human individual along with any non-qualifying selection (for example Sam Altman and ChatGPT), that will count.\n\nMore than one specific, named individual (such as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020) will count.", "post_id": 39993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761334237.958131, "end_time": 1761476330.86, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761334237.958131, "end_time": 1761476330.86, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6264375517578168 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 303, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For base rate information, please see Wikipedia [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year). Prediction markets such as [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtime/times-person-of-the-year/kxtime-25) have, at the time of this question, assigned a 38% probability to the non-human entities of AI or ChatGPT winning in 2025." } ] }
