Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=120
{ "count": 5883, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=100", "results": [ { "id": 39218, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:44.328011Z", "published_at": "2025-08-27T02:25:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.725557Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:44.615457Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:08:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "open_time": "2025-08-27T02:25:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38560, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 1.10% on 2025-08-27 for the Metaculus question 'Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?'?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:44.328428Z", "open_time": "2025-08-27T02:25:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:08:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:56.368861Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-27T03:55:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768\n- Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 1.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention.\n> \n> Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping. \n> \n> In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal)\n> \n> In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38768,\"question_id\":38065,\"last_cp\":0.011}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found at the URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768. If the community prediction on 2025-08-27 12:08:16 is higher than 1.10%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39218, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756266209.881574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756266209.881574, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.36328000000000005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -61.81992934815835, "peer_score": 21.69263222574397, "coverage": 0.980801478712647, "relative_legacy_score": -0.17931650240982447, "weighted_coverage": 0.980801478712647, "spot_peer_score": 20.01595453169401, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "baseline_archived_score": -61.81992934815835, "peer_archived_score": 21.69263222574397, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.17931650240982447, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.01595453169401, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768\n- Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-08-18: 1.10%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention.\n> \n> Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping. \n> \n> In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal)\n> \n> In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38768,\"question_id\":38065,\"last_cp\":0.011}}`" }, { "id": 39217, "title": "Will the FDA authorize ONS-5010 from Outlook Therapeutics for wet age-related macular degeneration by August 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the FDA authorize ONS-5010 from Outlook Therapeutics for wet age-related macular degeneration by August 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the FDA authorize ONS-5010 from Outlook Therapeutics for wet age-related macular degeneration by August 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-fda-authorize-ons-5010-from-outlook-therapeutics-for-wet-age-related-macular-degeneration-by-august-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:43.480801Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T04:13:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.879939Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:43.881310Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T05:43:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T05:43:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:50Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T04:13:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38559, "title": "Will the FDA authorize ONS-5010 from Outlook Therapeutics for wet age-related macular degeneration by August 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:43.481506Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T04:13:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T05:43:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T05:43:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:50Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:10:57.230623Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T05:43:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T05:43:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"33aa1b2e-5634-4f1b-8ce4-088b9b58a959\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A 'Yes' outcome will occur if, on or before August 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants either full or conditional marketing authorization to Outlook Therapeutics’ ONS-5010 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (wet AMD). If this does not happen by the specified deadline, the answer will be 'No.'\n\nFor the purposes of this question, qualifying authorizations include:\n- Approval letters for New Drug Applications (NDA) or Biologics License Applications (BLA) for new products\n- Supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) approvals for new indications of already-approved therapies\n- Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) approvals for generics\n- 351(k) application approvals for biosimilars\n\nRecognized forms of approval are: standard (traditional) approval, accelerated approval (including those based on surrogate endpoints), approvals with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS), and those with restrictions on distribution or indication, provided they are not solely for compassionate use or expanded access.\n\nThe following do NOT count as qualifying authorizations: letters indicating further action is required before approval, tentative approvals awaiting patent or exclusivity expiration, requests for additional data or studies, extensions of Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) deadlines, authorizations limited to compassionate use or expanded access, export-only or non-U.S. approvals, Emergency Use Authorizations (EUA) without full approval, or Complete Response Letters (CRLs) stating the application cannot be approved as submitted.\n\nIf the FDA issues a CRL or formally denies approval, or if the sponsor withdraws the application before the deadline, the answer will be 'No' immediately. Conversely, if the FDA grants approval before the cutoff, the answer will be 'Yes,' regardless of any negative advisory committee recommendations or subsequent withdrawal of approval. Conditional approvals that include post-marketing requirements or commitments are considered valid.\n\nResolution will be based primarily on official FDA communications, but if necessary, a consensus from reputable news sources will be used to confirm the outcome.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755582058.693789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755582058.693789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5216145833333335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -20.16510761128941, "peer_score": -5.8848911634661105, "coverage": 0.9421365596188439, "relative_legacy_score": 0.003909919679791925, "weighted_coverage": 0.9421365596188439, "spot_peer_score": -8.770447072367348, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -20.16510761128941, "peer_archived_score": -5.8848911634661105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.003909919679791925, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.770447072367348, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"91271ed2-0502-4c24-95aa-358c3875087f\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A determination will be made based on whether Levon Aronian is officially recognized as the overall winner of the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition. Should Aronian be declared the champion of this tournament, the answer will be \"Yes\"; in all other circumstances, including if another participant claims victory or if no winner is named, the answer will be \"No\".\n\nIf the tournament is either called off or fails to reach completion by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on October 1, 2025, the response will default to \"No\". The primary reference for establishing the outcome will be the official communications or published results from the organizers of the Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"3b755301-0fde-48ab-adf6-9c419ea7c7e7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question concerns the Bundesliga contest featuring Eintracht Frankfurt, set to commence at 9:30AM Eastern Time on August 23, 2025. The determination hinges exclusively on the result achieved by Eintracht Frankfurt during the standard 90 minutes of play, including any additional stoppage time, but excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Should Eintracht Frankfurt emerge as the winner at the conclusion of this period, the answer will be 'Yes'. Conversely, if they are defeated, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. If the match is ultimately abandoned and not rescheduled, the answer will be 'No'. All outcomes are based solely on the official result at the end of regular time plus stoppage time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755950414.078602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755950414.078602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5409803921568628 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 7.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.497334844069783, "peer_score": 8.328130000053193, "coverage": 0.9671477466600913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.005947818064067672, "weighted_coverage": 0.9671477466600913, "spot_peer_score": 8.858920709993303, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 12.497334844069783, "peer_archived_score": 8.328130000053193, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.005947818064067672, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.858920709993303, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"363f175f-66f7-4609-903a-b2196211c889\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "For this question, a positive outcome will be determined if, on or before August 22, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, either of the two designated junctions—one in Vilne and one in Kucheriv Yar—are shown as at least partially under Ukrainian control on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) Specifically, the relevant intersections must display any blue shading that denotes either 'Claimed Ukrainian Counter Offensive' or 'Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours' as of the deadline. If neither intersection is marked in this manner by the cutoff, the answer will be negative.\n\nShould Ukrainian forces assume actual control of these locations through a mutually agreed settlement, this will also satisfy the criteria for a positive result, even if the ISW map does not reflect the change. However, mere announcements of a settlement or agreements that only grant Ukraine legal (de jure) authority, without physical control, will not suffice. Only established, on-the-ground control is relevant.\n\nOnce either intersection is confirmed as under Ukrainian control according to the above standards, any subsequent loss of the area will not affect the outcome.\n\nReference images for the precise locations are available here:\n- Vilne intersection: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png\n- Kucheriv Yar intersection: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png\n- Combined/zoomed view: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg\n- General area: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg\n\nGoogle Maps references:\n- Vilne: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5\n- Kucheriv Yar: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7\n\nThe ISW Ukraine map is the primary verification tool. If it becomes inaccessible, DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) will serve as a backup. Should both sources be permanently unavailable, a consensus from reputable news outlets will be used. 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Any other scenario will result in a 'No' outcome.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, qualifying FDA authorizations include: (1) issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) for new products; (2) approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for new indications of already marketed therapies; (3) approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for generics; or (4) approval of a 351(k) application for biosimilars. Both traditional (full) and accelerated approvals, as well as those with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) requirements or with restrictions on distribution or indication, are considered valid. Approvals limited to compassionate use, expanded access, export-only, or emergency use (EUA) are not sufficient. Tentative approvals, requests for further data, or Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) date extensions do not qualify. Complete Response Letters (CRLs) or explicit non-approvals from the FDA will trigger an immediate 'No' outcome. Should the application be withdrawn by the sponsor before the deadline, the answer will also be 'No' at that time.\n\nIf the FDA grants the relevant approval before the specified cutoff, the answer will be 'Yes' even if subsequent advisory committee recommendations are negative or if the approval is later rescinded. Conditional approvals that include post-marketing requirements or commitments are acceptable for a 'Yes' result. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"f5419acf-af99-4e24-9d05-534b3f4a6017\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination of this question hinges on whether Maxime Vachier-Lagrave is officially recognized as the overall winner of the 2025 Saint Louis Rapid & Blitz chess competition. Should he be declared the champion, the answer will be \"Yes\"; in all other circumstances, including if another participant claims victory, the response will be \"No\".\n\nIf the tournament is called off or fails to reach completion by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on October 1, 2025, the answer will default to \"No\". The primary reference for establishing the outcome will be the official communications from the event’s organizing body. In the absence of clear official confirmation, widely accepted reports from reputable sources may be consulted to reach a consensus. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"f5419acf-af99-4e24-9d05-534b3f4a6017\"}}`" }, { "id": 39210, "title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "short_title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "url_title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "slug": "will-americana-receive-a-tomatometer-rating-from-rotten-tomatoes-within-the-85-to-89-range-as-of-august-25-2025-1000am-et", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:37.605628Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T20:24:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.008311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:37.947990Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T20:24:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32822, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warmup MiniBench - 2025-08-18", "slug": "minibench-2025-08-18", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "0.00", "start_date": "2025-08-18T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-08-31T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-08-28T23:40:48Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-17T23:44:51.434087Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-31T21:50:27.178908Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38552, "title": "Will \"Americana\" receive a Tomatometer rating from Rotten Tomatoes within the 85% to 89% range as of August 25, 2025, 10:00AM ET?", "created_at": "2025-08-18T00:33:37.606054Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T20:24:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T20:57:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T21:11:18.761268Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-19T21:54:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"fe5e74e2-28a7-4026-8b69-b4f83dca1a2d\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Assessment for this question hinges on the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage assigned to the film \"Americana\" (2025) by Rotten Tomatoes, specifically as it appears at 10:00AM Eastern Time on August 25, 2025. The relevant figure is the one displayed at that precise moment. Should the score be positioned at the boundary between two defined intervals, the upper interval will be used for determination. In the event that the necessary information is not accessible at the scheduled evaluation time, the source will be revisited in six-hour increments until the required data becomes available. All other aspects, including the cutoff for consideration, remain fixed at August 25, 2025 (UTC).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39210, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755639280.788654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755639280.788654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11089999999999996 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.80944204694181, "peer_score": 2.361313850424048, "coverage": 0.9540522189052018, "relative_legacy_score": -0.058979552432188595, "weighted_coverage": 0.9540522189052018, "spot_peer_score": 2.090577774350622, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 80.80944204694181, "peer_archived_score": 2.361313850424048, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.058979552432188595, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.090577774350622, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"42ddf47b-891d-4869-921d-d9a33d33e8cb\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "A determination of 'Yes' will be made if, on or before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on Friday, August 22, 2025, Drake is verified to have provided a financial donation to the Team Water initiative led by MrBeast. Verification will primarily rely on disclosures from teamwater.org, but may also incorporate direct statements from Drake or MrBeast, as well as corroboration from reputable news organizations. If no such donation is substantiated by the specified deadline, the answer will be 'No'. The underlying campaign aims to secure $40 million to supply long-term clean water access to two million individuals.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755966725.84313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755966725.84313, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04762745098039214 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 25.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"4fcb6ccf-8cb8-4590-bf7f-f07278ff38c7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question pertains to the Bundesliga fixture featuring Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart, set to commence at 9:30AM ET on August 23. The outcome will be determined as follows: Should the contest finish with both sides having the same number of goals at the final whistle, the answer will be 'Yes'. If either team secures a victory, the answer will be 'No'. In the event that the match is delayed, the question will remain unresolved until the fixture is played. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"d2a735b1-e0f2-4adc-9e5a-079bdd40037e\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome of this question, the \"All Critics\" Tomatometer percentage for the film \"Americana\" (2025) will be referenced as it appears on Rotten Tomatoes at precisely 10:00AM Eastern Time on August 25, 2025. Should the score at that moment fall within the inclusive range of 80% to 84%, this will be considered a positive result for this question. In the event that the score is positioned at the boundary between two defined intervals, the higher interval will be used for classification. If the necessary information is not accessible at the scheduled assessment time, the relevant page will be revisited at six-hour intervals until the required data becomes available. The evaluation will not consider any updates or changes to the score after the specified date and time. All criteria and timing are fixed as described.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39205, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755508826.858878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755508826.858878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19038043478260872 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 72.51151499586209, "peer_score": 7.621935265097568, "coverage": 0.9499736136860317, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00048005300985741304, "weighted_coverage": 0.9499736136860317, "spot_peer_score": 7.601732785194925, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 72.51151499586209, "peer_archived_score": 7.621935265097568, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00048005300985741304, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.601732785194925, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"7be850f2-7bae-427e-b91a-a5eb4262c410\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the 2025 referendum to reactivate the Maanshan/Third Nuclear Power Plant passes.\nFineprint: If the referendum is postponed to after September 1, 2025, or if the results are not available before September 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe primary source for resolution will be the [Central Election Commission](https://web.cec.gov.tw/english).\nDescription: Taiwan [used nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan) as part of its domestic mix of energy production beginning in the 1970s and ending in May 2025. Nuclear power peaked in the 1980s, when it made up [slightly over half](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3413) of Taiwan's electricity generation. Since then nuclear power production has gradually waned in favor of coal and later natural gas.\n\nHowever after the 2011 [Fukushima nuclear accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_accident) in Japan, anti-nuclear voices in Taiwan grew louder. In 2016 Taiwanese voters elected the Democratic Progressive Party to government on a platform that included [phasing out nuclear power by 2025](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwanese-vote-to-keep-nuclear-in-energy-mix). \n\nOnce elected, the DPP followed through on this promise by enshrining the phase-out into law. but in a [2018 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_referendum) Taiwanese voters voted to repeal this law, with 54.83% of the electorate participating in the referendum and 59.49% of those voting in favor of the repeal. Nevertheless, the DPP-led government continued its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and as a result Taiwan's six nuclear power units (two in each of three power plants) were [gradually closed down](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/reactor-closure-marks-taiwans-nuclear-exit) between 2018 and 2025.\n\nIn early 2025, the Taiwan People's Party, with support of the Kuomintang, [put forward a referendum](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/19/2003835455) to reactivate the [Maanshan nuclear power plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maanshan_Nuclear_Power_Plant) provided that it passes safety inspections. The legislature approved the referendum, which is scheduled to be held on August 23, 2025. The [referendum question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_referendum) will be\n\n> Do you agree that the Third Nuclear Power Plant should continue operating, provided that the competent authority confirms there are no safety concerns?\n\nNote that under [Taiwanese law](https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=D0020050) for a referendum to pass the total number of yes votes must constitute at least one-fourth the total number of eligible voters.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39204, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755653767.244737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755653767.244737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5151063829787234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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The principal reference for verification will be formal announcements or documentation from the Trump administration, though corroboration from multiple reputable sources may also be used if necessary.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755506429.28654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755506429.28654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7794021739130433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.96628633593149, "peer_score": 35.4561918658424, "coverage": 0.9594453051796666, "relative_legacy_score": 0.06527771275466021, "weighted_coverage": 0.9594453051796666, "spot_peer_score": 44.72165193671662, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 81.96628633593149, "peer_archived_score": 35.4561918658424, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.06527771275466021, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.72165193671662, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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