Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1200
{ "count": 5899, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1180", "results": [ { "id": 34396, "title": "Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?", "short_title": "US annex Canada before June 3, 2072?", "url_title": "US annex Canada before June 3, 2072?", "slug": "us-annex-canada-before-june-3-2072", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T12:31:39.749547Z", "published_at": "2025-02-12T21:39:05.339823Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.370555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-12T21:39:05.339821Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-06-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-17T21:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 33889, "title": "Will the U.S. annex any part of Canada before June 3, 2072?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T12:31:39.750005Z", "open_time": "2025-02-17T21:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-02T21:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-02T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2072-06-03T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the fictional universe of the [Fallout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_\\(franchise\\)) games the United States officially announced the annexation of Canada [on June 3, 2072](https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_annexation_of_Canada) as a step in protecting Alaska from the ongoing Chinese invasion. The annexation process had fully concluded in 2077.\n\nWhile historically unlikely, political speculation about annexing Canada in the real world has been fueled by recent provocative comments from U.S. political figures, such as Donald Trump, who in 2024 mentioned that Canada can [become a 51st state](https://ground.news/article/donald-trump-says-canada-becoming-51st-us-state-a-great-idea_a35169). His remarks, while often dismissed as hyperbole or humor, have sparked discussions about the plausibility of such a scenario.\n\nCanadian prime minister Justin Trudeau (who was mentioned by Trump as \"governor Trudeau\") announced in January 2025 that he will resign from his post and leave his position as a leader of the Liberal Party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before **June 3, 2072**, any part of Canada's internationally recognized territory (as of the moment of annexation) officially becomes part of the United States as a state, territory, or other political unit through a formal process. The process must meet both the following conditions:\n\n1. **Legal Recognition**: The annexation of Canadian territory must be acknowledged by the U.S.\n2. **Territorial Integration**: The annexed area must be formally integrated into the United States as a state, territory, or other political unit recognized by U.S. law.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if:\n\n* No part of Canada's territory becomes part of the United States by the specified date.\n* Canada undergoes significant political restructuring (e.g., independence movements or mergers with other entities) but does not result in U.S. annexation of any Canadian territory.\n* No credible legal or political consensus exists regarding U.S. annexation of Canadian territory.\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Territories that were part of the [active disputes between US and Canada as of January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_areas_disputed_by_Canada_and_the_United_States\\&oldid=1262584342#Current_disputes) will not affect question resolution. These disputes are:\n\n* Machias Seal Island\n* Strait of Juan de Fuca\n* Yukon–Alaska dispute, Beaufort Sea\n* Northwest Passage\n* Dixon Entrance", "post_id": 34396, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756340288.238079, "end_time": 1784098145.826, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756340288.238079, "end_time": 1784098145.826, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.059148537944225185 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0063774501292635, 0.6984449301569673, 0.7371557070192187, 0.0, 1.625071309678011, 1.0976103830298731, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the fictional universe of the [Fallout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallout_\\(franchise\\)) games the United States officially announced the annexation of Canada [on June 3, 2072](https://fallout.fandom.com/wiki/United_States_annexation_of_Canada) as a step in protecting Alaska from the ongoing Chinese invasion. The annexation process had fully concluded in 2077.\n\nWhile historically unlikely, political speculation about annexing Canada in the real world has been fueled by recent provocative comments from U.S. political figures, such as Donald Trump, who in 2024 mentioned that Canada can [become a 51st state](https://ground.news/article/donald-trump-says-canada-becoming-51st-us-state-a-great-idea_a35169). His remarks, while often dismissed as hyperbole or humor, have sparked discussions about the plausibility of such a scenario.\n\nCanadian prime minister Justin Trudeau (who was mentioned by Trump as \"governor Trudeau\") announced in January 2025 that he will resign from his post and leave his position as a leader of the Liberal Party." }, { "id": 34390, "title": "Will Justin Trudeau cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-justin-trudeau-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-canada-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:59.149952Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.078906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T16:41:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - AI Forecasting Benchmark Q1 2025", "slug": "pro-benchmark-q12025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1_IPFp1SQ.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-17T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-08T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T22:19:31.310481Z", "edited_at": "2025-05-12T14:08:22.584970Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 33887, "title": "Will Justin Trudeau cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:59.149952Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-14T16:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-14T16:42:41.174875Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AP: [Canada's Trudeau reshuffles his Cabinet as resignation calls mount and new election threat looms](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canada-s-trudeau-to-shuffle-his-cabinet-amid-resignation-calls-and-rising-discontent/ar-AA1weqzn)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if according to credible sources Justin Trudeau ceases to be the prime minister of Canada before April 1, 2025, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via any method. Otherwise, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "In cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Trudeau's name is still listed for Canada.", "post_id": 34390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738275902.836517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.925 ], "centers": [ 0.955 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738275902.836517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.925 ], "centers": [ 0.955 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.04500000000000004, 0.955 ], "means": [ 0.9419083192943186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8412010461330255, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.836210144384, "peer_score": 2.5229613230408447, "coverage": 0.9677985272151574, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9677985272151574, "spot_peer_score": 1.6978387783191156, "spot_baseline_score": 93.35726382610238, "baseline_archived_score": 87.836210144384, "peer_archived_score": 2.5229613230408447, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6978387783191156, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 93.35726382610238 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AP: [Canada's Trudeau reshuffles his Cabinet as resignation calls mount and new election threat looms](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canada-s-trudeau-to-shuffle-his-cabinet-amid-resignation-calls-and-rising-discontent/ar-AA1weqzn)" }, { "id": 34388, "title": "Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-johnson-cease-to-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T07:08:59.077816Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.360856Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:31:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32631, "type": "question_series", "name": "Pro Forecasters - 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If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. 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33782, "title": "Will the United States accuse North Korea of invading South Korea before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:53.224183Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:44:56.343925Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Newsweek: [North Korea Threatens To Declare War With South Korea](https://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-south-korea-war-drills-1971637)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the US government publicly accuses North Korea of invading South Korea by sending its ground military forces into South Korea without consent from the South Korea government in Seoul. 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"2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC: [Kenya's Ruto embraces rivals to shore up support](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gl3xdye97o)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if according to credible sources William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before April 1, 2025, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**. This 30 day period must complete before October 1, 2024, otherwise the question will resolve as **No** if the other criteria have not been met.\n\nIf Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIn cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.", "post_id": 34284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738288168.771061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19333333333333327 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738288168.771061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19333333333333327 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 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"viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33780, "title": "Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:53.127870Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T18:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T18:40:36.885266Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAlthough Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.", "post_id": 34283, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738288673.640907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738288673.640907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.136 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16879711997966274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1733610516338708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 1.084404382362697, 0.0, 1.9475078932095613, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6347939083912385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8492281349733315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.21986553111442, "peer_score": 1.3182719395924687, "coverage": 0.9550008047289322, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9550008047289322, "spot_peer_score": 2.592862821548089, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 76.21986553111442, "peer_archived_score": 1.3182719395924687, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.592862821548089, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n\nAccording to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n\n>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n\nAs of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n\nHowever, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n\nIn 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n\nHowever, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n\nAccording to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n\n>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n\n>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n\nSee Also:\n\n- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US." }, { "id": 34282, "title": "Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-government-of-greenland-officially-announce-a-date-for-an-independence-referendum-before-april-6-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.844109Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.933143Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:24:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33779, "title": "Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.844109Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T19:26:43.031769Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-would-greenlands-independence-mean-arctic) and which unveiled a draft constitution in 2023, a move that was widely regarded as an important milestone on its journey to independence. In November 2008, 75% of Greenlanders [voted for](https://visitgreenland.com/articles/greenlands-modern-path-to-independence/) the Self-Government Act, which greatly expanded the island's autonomy. Under an agreement signed with Denmark the next year, Greenland can declare independence after a successful referendum.\n\nGreenland has potentially the [second largest](https://ip-quarterly.com/en/dont-buy-greenland-buy-its-minerals) reserves of rare earth deposits in the world potentially offering an [alternative source](https://chinaobservers.eu/de-risking-rare-earths-the-greenland-stalemate-and-the-critical-raw-materials-act/) for the United States and its European allies, which are dependent on China for much of their supply. Rare earths [are essential components](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/why-world-turning-to-greenlands-rare-earth-metals/32694/) of a wide range of modern technological products, ranging from cell phones to electric vehicles.\n\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Greenland is strategically located in the Arctic, home to Thule Air Base and close enough to Russia to make it a potential support point for tracking Russian military operations [according to CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):\n\n\n\nOn Tuesday January 8, 2025, then-President Elect Donald Trump [said](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-panama-criticism-us-expansion/), \"We need Greenland for national security purposes.\" His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., [landed in Greenland](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-not-for-sale-danish-pm-mette-frederiksen-us-donald-trump-jr/) for a visit, with President-Elect Trump [writing](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113787590758180339):\n\n> Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!\n\nSince Denmark [has firmly rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/) the notion of America buying Greenland, another path to becoming part of the United State might lie in an independence referendum. Greenland is holding parliamentary elections in April 2025, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede [has hinted](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-prime-minister-mute-egede-independence-denmark-colonialism-donald-trump-arctic/) that a referendum on independence could come in tandem with those elections. \n\nSee Also \n\n* Euro News: [Greenland's PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump's interest](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \n* Wikipedia: [Independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_referendum) (includes historical list of independence referendums)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 6, 2025, the government of Greenland or any of its agencies officially announce (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) a specific date on which a referendum on independence from Denmark is scheduled. If no such announcement occurs before April 6, 2025, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738288654.635518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738288654.635518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3497254759462745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4874162928957498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 1.4045197561552756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36011312136081397, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 1.2887017828032878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.405826700538625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 32.92220499836874, "peer_score": 18.552974470887087, "coverage": 0.9595925055609804, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9595925055609804, "spot_peer_score": 2.093845446500489, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 32.92220499836874, "peer_archived_score": 18.552974470887087, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.093845446500489, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-would-greenlands-independence-mean-arctic) and which unveiled a draft constitution in 2023, a move that was widely regarded as an important milestone on its journey to independence. In November 2008, 75% of Greenlanders [voted for](https://visitgreenland.com/articles/greenlands-modern-path-to-independence/) the Self-Government Act, which greatly expanded the island's autonomy. Under an agreement signed with Denmark the next year, Greenland can declare independence after a successful referendum.\n\nGreenland has potentially the [second largest](https://ip-quarterly.com/en/dont-buy-greenland-buy-its-minerals) reserves of rare earth deposits in the world potentially offering an [alternative source](https://chinaobservers.eu/de-risking-rare-earths-the-greenland-stalemate-and-the-critical-raw-materials-act/) for the United States and its European allies, which are dependent on China for much of their supply. Rare earths [are essential components](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/why-world-turning-to-greenlands-rare-earth-metals/32694/) of a wide range of modern technological products, ranging from cell phones to electric vehicles.\n\nFrom a geopolitical perspective, Greenland is strategically located in the Arctic, home to Thule Air Base and close enough to Russia to make it a potential support point for tracking Russian military operations [according to CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):\n\n\n\nOn Tuesday January 8, 2025, then-President Elect Donald Trump [said](https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-greenland-panama-criticism-us-expansion/), \"We need Greenland for national security purposes.\" His eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., [landed in Greenland](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-not-for-sale-danish-pm-mette-frederiksen-us-donald-trump-jr/) for a visit, with President-Elect Trump [writing](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113787590758180339):\n\n> Don Jr. and my Reps landing in Greenland. The reception has been great. They, and the Free World, need safety, security, strength, and PEACE! This is a deal that must happen. MAGA. MAKE GREENLAND GREAT AGAIN!\n\nSince Denmark [has firmly rejected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/greenland-is-not-sale-its-leader-says-response-trump-2024-12-23/) the notion of America buying Greenland, another path to becoming part of the United State might lie in an independence referendum. Greenland is holding parliamentary elections in April 2025, and Greenlandic Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede [has hinted](https://www.politico.eu/article/greenland-prime-minister-mute-egede-independence-denmark-colonialism-donald-trump-arctic/) that a referendum on independence could come in tandem with those elections. \n\nSee Also \n\n* Euro News: [Greenland's PM pushes for independence from Denmark amid Trump's interest](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/01/03/greenlands-pm-pushes-for-independence-from-denmark-amid-trumps-interest) \n* Wikipedia: [Independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_referendum) (includes historical list of independence referendums)" }, { "id": 34277, "title": "Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mike-johnson-cease-to-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.495508Z", "published_at": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.549990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33774, "title": "Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.495508Z", "open_time": "2025-01-31T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:12:16.883627Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News: ['Total dumpster fire': Republicans fume over speaker's spending plan days from shutdown deadline](https://abc7.com/post/republicans-fume-speaker-mike-johnsons-spending-plan-days-shutdown-deadline/15668588/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, Mike Johnson has ceased to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives. 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"possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the USDA: \"Yu Shang Food, Inc., a Spartanburg, SC, establishment, is recalling approximately 72,240 pounds of ready-to-eat (RTE) meat and poultry products within their shelf life that may be adulterated with Listeria monocytogenes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). This release is being reissued to expand the scope of the [November 9, 2024](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/yu-shang-food-inc--recalls-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due-possible-listeria), recall.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Yu Shang Food, Inc.'s Ready-To-Eat Meat and Poultry Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/yu-shang-food-inc--recalls-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due-possible-0) is accessed by Metaculus after February 28, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34275, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738202259.05314, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738202259.05314, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3472794645182061 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7219949215441985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.1071353503449157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40511142881922146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 1.7050673405518215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6339546177315728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.72773407254784, "peer_score": -0.33802184221424125, "coverage": 0.9469840761025746, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9469840761025746, "spot_peer_score": 8.361394093976942, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 51.72773407254784, "peer_archived_score": -0.33802184221424125, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.361394093976942, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the USDA: \"Yu Shang Food, Inc., a Spartanburg, SC, establishment, is recalling approximately 72,240 pounds of ready-to-eat (RTE) meat and poultry products within their shelf life that may be adulterated with Listeria monocytogenes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS). This release is being reissued to expand the scope of the [November 9, 2024](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/yu-shang-food-inc--recalls-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due-possible-listeria), recall.\"" }, { "id": 34273, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tiktok-become-available-in-the-us-on-both-the-app-store-and-google-play-before-april-5-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.323213Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.070477Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:10:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33770, "title": "Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.323213Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T19:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-07T19:12:47.236242Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after January 25, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, TikTok is available for download in the US from both the App Store and Google Play without the use of VPNs or other technical workarounds.", "fine_print": "* If the app is simultaneously available for any amount of time from both locations and then becomes unavailable again, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 34273, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738201903.462916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738201903.462916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24114596358911397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.505561395727673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4264494570652806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9273375289217768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.709657966497225, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -110.44470659422967, "peer_score": 20.541766832181413, "coverage": 0.9573949391974339, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9573949391974339, "spot_peer_score": -12.927104065618195, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -110.44470659422967, "peer_archived_score": 20.541766832181413, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.927104065618195, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69) delaying the implementation of the ban for 75 days. has claimed that he will overturn the ban. The question is whether or not he will be successful in doing so over the first few months of his presidency.\n\nSee also from Forbes: [When Will TikTok Be Back In App Stores? What Could Happen Without Updates](https://www.forbes.com/sites/monicamercuri/2025/01/22/when-will-tiktok-be-back-in-app-stores-what-could-happen-without-updates/)" }, { "id": 34272, "title": "Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-north-korea-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.111478Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.611817Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:09:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ 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:\n\n\n\nOn](http://CSIS](https://www.csis.org/analysis/geopolitics-and-neglected-arctic-spaces):%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnOn){kind=link}