Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=1220
{ "count": 5899, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1240", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=1200", "results": [ { "id": 34270, "title": "Will the Euro Area Inflation Rate be above 2.4% for January 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-euro-area-inflation-rate-be-above-24-for-january-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.030506Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.033639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-24T12:43:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33767, "title": "Will the Euro Area Inflation Rate be above 2.4% for January 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:52.030506Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-24T12:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-24T12:44:32.482839Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Euro News: [Eurozone inflation rises for third month as energy costs edge up](https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/01/17/eurozone-inflation-rises-for-third-month-as-energy-costs-edge-up)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Eurozone inflation rate for January 2025 is above 2.4% on an annualized basis according to [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 34270, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738201902.913095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738201902.913095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5217680895422342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7963739058787758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.052618612018597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6548653680864354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 1.3276092507191306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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{}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Euro News: [Eurozone inflation rises for third month as energy costs edge up](https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/01/17/eurozone-inflation-rises-for-third-month-as-energy-costs-edge-up)" }, { "id": 34267, "title": "Will Elon Musk confirm that he is Adrian Dittman before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-elon-musk-confirm-that-he-is-adrian-dittman-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.691576Z", "published_at": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.212685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33764, "title": "Will Elon Musk confirm that he is Adrian Dittman before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.691576Z", "open_time": "2025-01-30T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T12:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T12:49:02.264101Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-30T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Newsweek: [Who Is Adrian Dittmann? Why Some X Users Are Convinced It's Elon Musk](https://www.newsweek.com/adrian-dittmann-elon-musk-comparison-twitter-x-2007173)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Elon Musk specifically confirms before April 1, 2025, that he has personally operated the [Adrian Dittmann](https://x.com/AdrianDittmann) X (Twitter) account and/or has appeared as Adrian Dittmann on X Spaces. If there is no such confirmation, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "A spokesperson authorized to speak on Musk's behalf would count as well. Any confirmations must be clear and unambiguous--for example, jokes or hinting at it would not count.", "post_id": 34267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738201901.699577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738201901.699577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.059169843814991394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 1.284882758777943, 1.3707061880744444, 0.0, 1.6084794314452788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 2.3395870689361415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.00341422097357, "peer_score": 1.3094967179243246, "coverage": 0.9932581516769197, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9932581516769197, "spot_peer_score": 1.5058269366269894, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 92.00341422097357, "peer_archived_score": 1.3094967179243246, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.5058269366269894, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Newsweek: [Who Is Adrian Dittmann? Why Some X Users Are Convinced It's Elon Musk](https://www.newsweek.com/adrian-dittmann-elon-musk-comparison-twitter-x-2007173)" }, { "id": 34266, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will the government of Scotland officially announce a date for an independence referendum?", "short_title": "By 4/1/25, will govt of Scotland annce date for indep refm?", "url_title": "By 4/1/25, will govt of Scotland annce date for indep refm?", "slug": "by-4125-will-govt-of-scotland-annce-date-for-indep-refm", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.649872Z", "published_at": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.933620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:05:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33763, "title": "Before April 1, 2025, will the government of Scotland officially announce a date for an independence referendum?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:51.649872Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T01:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T01:06:56.302068Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [Proposed second Scottish independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, a referendum on the independence of Scotland from the United Kingdom is officially scheduled. If this does not occur before April 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the referendum will be considered \"officially scheduled\" when it is announced by a person or entity with the authority to do so within Scotland. Please note that broader legality, such as within the United Kingdom, will be considered irrelevant for this question, so if the federal government declared the referendum illegal, the question would still resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 34266, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738133726.43945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.052000000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16900000000000004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738133726.43945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.052000000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16900000000000004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11993078817586175 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 1.544365638254094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3182584914436357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.119692303582607, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7633016222733049, 0.0, 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Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie when looking at dollar values of their net worths, this resolves as **No**. 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Can Elon Musk Deliver?](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/27/business/tesla-sales-stock-elon-musk.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed \"Close\" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $420.00 for March 31, 2025. If it is under that price, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this question.", "post_id": 34262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738133965.597814, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4336666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738133965.597814, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4336666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5663333333333334, 0.4336666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.4391913857634962 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6370258029058473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3305966195519114, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9212443800578234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.383107861179975, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.8619991692406476, "peer_score": 4.81323132984977, "coverage": 0.9628662297460766, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9628662297460766, "spot_peer_score": 10.452218260483507, "spot_baseline_score": 17.972335180097737, "baseline_archived_score": 0.8619991692406476, "peer_archived_score": 4.81323132984977, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.452218260483507, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 17.972335180097737 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times December 27, 2024: [Tesla Investors Are Still Bullish. Can Elon Musk Deliver?](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/27/business/tesla-sales-stock-elon-musk.html)" }, { "id": 34257, "title": "Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of February 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-temperature-in-san-francisco-ca-ever-go-below-40-degrees-f-in-the-entire-month-of-february-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.981171Z", "published_at": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.860736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33754, "title": "Will the temperature in San Francisco, CA ever go below 40 degrees F in the entire month of February 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.981171Z", "open_time": "2025-01-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-17T11:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-17T11:43:24.811481Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-29T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2024 this event did not occur. In February 2023, the lowest was 39 on the 23rd and 24th. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the low temperature in degrees Fahrenheit is ever below 40 degrees for the downtown San Francisco Downtown weather station in February 2025, as reported [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SFOC1&network=CA_DCP). If the low for any day has not been below that, then this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Missing data for any of the observed values (coded by the NWS as \"MM\") will not be considered. In order to streamline resolution, no other resolution source other than the Data Calendar posted at Iowa State University will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after the resolution date. 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In February 2023, the lowest was 39 on the 23rd and 24th. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), \"The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website.\" " }, { "id": 34256, "title": "Will SpaceX fail to make any new posts on its Updates page before April 1, 2025? 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For example: [Has recent rainfall made a dent in the South Texas drought? Here's where we stand.](https://www.expressnews.com/san-antonio-weather/article/rain-south-texas-san-antonio-drought-update-19961967.php)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/texas) lists greater than or equal to 15.0 million Texas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after February 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 34253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738100703.061646, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5801000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738100703.061646, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5801000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41989999999999994, 0.5801000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.5046210300277973 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9489455035811902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3134139391066886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8432845359229701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 1.8476673846986682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170496366558614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1851223516044766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -16.000433270011282, "peer_score": 12.708700202873587, "coverage": 0.9527810921933917, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9527810921933917, "spot_peer_score": 1.4501783063041414, "spot_baseline_score": -25.188230671443254, "baseline_archived_score": -16.000433270011282, "peer_archived_score": 12.708700202873587, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4501783063041414, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.188230671443254 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Has recent rainfall made a dent in the South Texas drought? Here's where we stand.](https://www.expressnews.com/san-antonio-weather/article/rain-south-texas-san-antonio-drought-update-19961967.php)" }, { "id": 34252, "title": "Will Texas have 15.0 million or more residents living in drought on March 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-texas-have-150-million-or-more-residents-living-in-drought-on-march-28-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.612897Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.554832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T17:50:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33749, "title": "Will Texas have 15.0 million or more residents living in drought on March 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.612897Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T17:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T17:51:10.227172Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Has recent rainfall made a dent in the South Texas drought? Here's where we stand.](https://www.expressnews.com/san-antonio-weather/article/rain-south-texas-san-antonio-drought-update-19961967.php)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/texas) lists greater than or equal to 15.0 million Texas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after March 28, 2025. If the number is below that, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to April 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 34252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738100637.32569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738100637.32569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5122636496235731 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 1.61309728918301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3071622089402206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -41.022456610677395, "peer_score": -7.864883807817579, "coverage": 0.9577200002802744, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9577200002802744, "spot_peer_score": -5.7356172794453535, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -41.022456610677395, "peer_archived_score": -7.864883807817579, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.7356172794453535, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Has recent rainfall made a dent in the South Texas drought? Here's where we stand.](https://www.expressnews.com/san-antonio-weather/article/rain-south-texas-san-antonio-drought-update-19961967.php)" }, { "id": 34247, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on March 31, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-march-31-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.204318Z", "published_at": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.208866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33744, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on March 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.204318Z", "open_time": "2025-01-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T11:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-31T11:46:50.900475Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after March 31, 2025:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 34247, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738100679.58381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738100679.58381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.581288917316653 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2711794336755582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1624082587120177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5721843635183668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.26964019362466, "peer_score": -7.904651492155329, "coverage": 0.9935542136430742, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9935542136430742, "spot_peer_score": -22.60801281212541, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "baseline_archived_score": 43.26964019362466, "peer_archived_score": -7.904651492155329, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.60801281212541, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 34246, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on February 28, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-february-28-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.156842Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.967617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-16T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33743, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on February 28, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.156842Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-16T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-16T17:35:15.923881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after February 28, 2025:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 34246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018781.800354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018781.800354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5844983413509993 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6813134944700813, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25094036469438474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0719519678261453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3815909134497419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2720506699960181, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45149554862835356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -47.083398644994304, "peer_score": 21.371810298912777, "coverage": 0.9462412085798051, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9462412085798051, "spot_peer_score": 35.708044056477775, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "baseline_archived_score": -47.083398644994304, "peer_archived_score": 21.371810298912777, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.708044056477775, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 34245, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on January 30, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-january-30-2025", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.097910Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.710060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:28:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33742, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on January 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:50.097910Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-11T03:29:27.520425Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 30, 2025:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 34245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018781.490966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018781.490966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5824508874940674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17753889170438222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12403378248661255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6317215992479355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.86159598031185, "peer_score": 16.828180438899626, "coverage": 0.9486779650052387, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9486779650052387, "spot_peer_score": 10.455395688349206, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 44.86159598031185, "peer_archived_score": 16.828180438899626, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.455395688349206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 34242, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before April 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.811375Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.234931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33739, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before April 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.811375Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-01T11:48:25.544744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\n", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 34242, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018792.899448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018792.899448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3040547527725028 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 1.0278039913470645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.230887815716027, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.4998325749597323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2443529698557632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8075193842755515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.05910982632452, "peer_score": 11.599905931204185, "coverage": 0.9664872508578831, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9664872508578831, "spot_peer_score": 7.137743898665456, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 47.05910982632452, "peer_archived_score": 11.599905931204185, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.137743898665456, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. " }, { "id": 34241, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before February 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-february-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.770687Z", "published_at": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.771808Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 72, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:32:00Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-05-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T15:58:08.536152Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 33738, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before February 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T06:31:49.770687Z", "open_time": "2025-01-27T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-11T03:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-11T03:34:48.672778Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-27T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.53, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after the launch of this question and before February 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\nThe primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable or not timely updated..", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before the resolution date, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 34241, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738018780.906563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.057999999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738018780.906563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.057999999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.20426492620768322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06987644194532422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 2.1232242405145976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.261185949008575, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6894322378104971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.67032846667065, "peer_score": 13.780614302294117, "coverage": 0.9721016547414993, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9721016547414993, "spot_peer_score": 24.08354448749365, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 84.67032846667065, "peer_archived_score": 13.780614302294117, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.08354448749365, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on November 8, 2024 and September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. " }, { "id": 31884, "title": "Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "short_title": "Will Brazil's unemployment be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "url_title": "Will Brazil's unemployment be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "slug": "will-brazils-unemployment-be-below-62-in-february-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-25T00:35:52.180959Z", "published_at": "2025-02-10T14:02:58.433400Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.617341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-10T14:02:58.433398Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T20:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 552, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32567, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/bw-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2025-02-03T10:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-03-31T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-12-13T21:57:31.703059Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T00:51:15.310393Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 31382, "title": "Will Brazil's unemployment rate be below 6.2% in February 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-25T00:35:52.181433Z", "open_time": "2025-02-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T20:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-28T20:19:19.055125Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nAccording to the [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/highlights/24141-technical-note-on-the-continuous-pnad.html) (IBGE), \n\n> The IBGE´s Continuous National Household Sample Survey - Continuous PNAD investigates the conditions of the labor market in Brazil based on a sample with more than 210 thousand households, distributed along nearly 3,500 municipalities. On a quarterly basis, this sample is visited by nearly 2 thousand survey agents. The Continuous PNAD raises information on the workers in Brazil, including those without a formal contract.\n\nFor the three months ended November 2024, average unemployment fell to 6.1% in Brazil, the [lowest](https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/42334-unemployment-drops-to-6-1-in-the-quarter-ended-november-lowest-rate-in-the-time-series) in the over two decades since the Continuous PNAD began: \n\n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=spline&d1=2012-03-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> \nBrazil's economy has been on a tear, with real GDP growth of 5.9% annualized in Q1 and Q2 2024, and 4% for Q3 as of November 2024, massively outperforming forecasts of 1.6% made for the country in January 2024, [according to Deloitte](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/americas/brazil-economic-outlook.html). This has been driven by strong consumer spending driving strong [retail sales growth](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/brazil/retail-sales-growth) and [business investment](https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/brazil/). In the trailing twelve months, Brazil's unemployment rate has been as follows:\n\n  \n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=column&d1=2023-12-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> \nBrazil's economy and its outlook are not without their challenges, however. In December 2024, Brazil's current account deficit [widened](https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202501240710RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L2N3OK0F0_1), with imports growing 8.8% and exports shrinking 1.2%. Additionally, [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-fresh-all-time-low-job-creation-slows-2024-12-27/), even as the unemployment rate hits fresh historical lows, there are signs the labor market is cooling. Inflation has been elevated, [triggering](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-inflation-slowdown-falls-short-131722984.html) interest rate increases from Brazil's central bank. Additionally, economists [are projecting](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-record-low-of-6-1-in-october-2024/) an uptrend in unemployment in 2025, though with unemployment still remaining below long-term historical averages. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the unemployment rate in Brazil for people aged 14 and over (*Taxa de desocupação, na semana de referência, das pessoas de 14 anos ou mais de idade*) in the three months ended February 2025 is less than 6.2%, as reported by the [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/social/labor/16833-monthly-dissemination-pnadc1.html?=\\&t=destaques). If the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 6.2%, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* This question resolves based on the figures first reported by IBGE for the three-month average of December 2024, January 2025, and February 2025 that includes all three months. Later revisions will not cause this question to be re-resolved.\n* If the required data is not available before 3 PM Eastern Time on March 31, 2025, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 31884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740804850.717726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 549, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740804850.717726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 549, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04600920426534545 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.003006494644763, 6.429765060341532, 7.274156674818991, 4.9227489364196995, 3.1747545659938377, 3.1359033899931434, 2.752328200153624, 0.20104863798168132, 0.774404027855375, 0.0028831402462372565, 0.9716630324797084, 0.002095275332537441, 0.2535171231972856, 7.910398366376731e-07, 3.425852577780378e-07, 0.35013137452540316, 0.004714785774968588, 5.2288386597225915e-06, 0.0004621113477542058, 1.4268170268088408e-06, 0.7863523872341003, 0.0, 5.405119841784112e-07, 2.1816034455771747e-06, 0.0, 5.604767933510636e-05, 4.928831305383811e-10, 0.005615961514647631, 1.2676706195504473e-07, 0.0, 0.13446343164693117, 0.0, 0.0, 3.571536200355239e-05, 7.947516952723533e-07, 1.2288682616613461e-06, 0.0, 4.29782021890042e-06, 0.0, 5.884146493526734e-08, 0.0323647007881096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05705239479003132, 0.0, 0.07996199994039907, 0.0, 3.770292971785068e-10, 8.948592835061526e-09, 0.18173849483777996, 4.699096426413446e-08, 0.0, 0.07441614397873472, 0.0, 0.020528979090776403, 0.006613457076171877, 3.1526276023449433e-07, 0.047166120791941116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10633845636345356, 4.352160613900698e-08, 0.0, 0.027839049748934436, 0.0, 1.7466437320316877e-08, 1.2631635547818315e-06, 0.015065243156353951, 3.6496462422271024e-08, 9.034352603250279e-08, 0.10143776144636744, 0.0, 0.0004913123362027204, 6.241183823675589e-10, 1.5758494644534504e-09, 0.19803323634794212, 4.027138014887226e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3175562498872534e-06, 9.985527733072875e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003218168034336172, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8808283588413168e-06, 6.036233365186593e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04358834008880934, 0.0, 0.0012713265278943855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18601210227658696 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.7761459597898, "peer_score": 32.10454666587113, "coverage": 0.9999003787188769, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999003787188769, "spot_peer_score": 49.33027077386765, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 86.7761459597898, "peer_archived_score": 32.10454666587113, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.33027077386765, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1360, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is part of the* [*Bridgewater Forecasting Contest*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*. To be eligible to win prizes in the competition you must register for the tournament. The last day to register is March 24, 2025. Sign up or check your registration status* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/)*.*\n\n***\n\nAccording to the [Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística](https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/highlights/24141-technical-note-on-the-continuous-pnad.html) (IBGE), \n\n> The IBGE´s Continuous National Household Sample Survey - Continuous PNAD investigates the conditions of the labor market in Brazil based on a sample with more than 210 thousand households, distributed along nearly 3,500 municipalities. On a quarterly basis, this sample is visited by nearly 2 thousand survey agents. The Continuous PNAD raises information on the workers in Brazil, including those without a formal contract.\n\nFor the three months ended November 2024, average unemployment fell to 6.1% in Brazil, the [lowest](https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/42334-unemployment-drops-to-6-1-in-the-quarter-ended-november-lowest-rate-in-the-time-series) in the over two decades since the Continuous PNAD began: \n\n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=spline&d1=2012-03-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> \nBrazil's economy has been on a tear, with real GDP growth of 5.9% annualized in Q1 and Q2 2024, and 4% for Q3 as of November 2024, massively outperforming forecasts of 1.6% made for the country in January 2024, [according to Deloitte](https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/americas/brazil-economic-outlook.html). This has been driven by strong consumer spending driving strong [retail sales growth](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/brazil/retail-sales-growth) and [business investment](https://www.state.gov/reports/2024-investment-climate-statements/brazil/). In the trailing twelve months, Brazil's unemployment rate has been as follows:\n\n  \n<iframe src=\"https://tradingeconomics.com/embed/?s=bzuetotn&v=202412271219V20230410&h=300&w=600&ref=/brazil/unemployment-rate&type=column&d1=2023-12-01&d2=2024-12-01\" height=\"300\" width=\"600\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" /> \nBrazil's economy and its outlook are not without their challenges, however. In December 2024, Brazil's current account deficit [widened](https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FINewsArticle?id=202501240710RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_L2N3OK0F0_1), with imports growing 8.8% and exports shrinking 1.2%. Additionally, [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-fresh-all-time-low-job-creation-slows-2024-12-27/), even as the unemployment rate hits fresh historical lows, there are signs the labor market is cooling. Inflation has been elevated, [triggering](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-inflation-slowdown-falls-short-131722984.html) interest rate increases from Brazil's central bank. Additionally, economists [are projecting](https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazils-jobless-rate-hits-record-low-of-6-1-in-october-2024/) an uptrend in unemployment in 2025, though with unemployment still remaining below long-term historical averages. " }, { "id": 31836, "title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "short_title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "url_title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "slug": "will-any-top-us-official-visit-greenland-in-2025", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-01-23T03:22:00.482741Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T18:48:29.919151Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.284822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-11T18:48:29.919149Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T18:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 31356, "title": "Will any top US official visit Greenland in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-01-23T03:22:00.483076Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T18:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T18:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-29T01:08:51.302210Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-28T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In 1946, the United States government under Harry Truman offered to buy Greenland from Denmark for \\$100 million](https://apnews.com/article/9d4a8021c3650800fdf6dd5903f68972). In 2019 US president Donald Trump said his administration was [looking into making another offer](https://www.npr.org/2019/08/19/752274659/no-joke-trump-really-does-want-to-buy-greenland). In 2024, US president-elect Donald Trump again suggested the US government would try to purchase the world's largest island. [On January 7, 2025, Donald Trump, Jr. visited Greenland](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/06/europe/trump-greenland-visit-denmark-intl-latam/index.html). The Danish government has repeatedly said that Greenland is not for sale.\n\nA visit by a top US government official may indicate the seriousness of the Trump administration's intentions to purchase the island.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves `Yes` if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the then-current holder of any of the following United States government positions has visited Greenland between February 15, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (dates inclusive):\n\n* President\n* Vice President\n* Speaker of the House\n* Secretary of State\n* Secretary of Defense\n* US Ambassador to Denmark\n\nIf none of the above officeholders is confirmed to have visited Greenland, according to public information, during the specified time period, the question resolves `No`.", "fine_print": "Only visits that are confirmed by credible sources as of the Resolution Date count. If a visit occurs in secret and is known only after the Resolution Date, that visit will not count toward positive resolution.", "post_id": 31836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743111937.288986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743111937.288986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8578143360848465 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7191051364770336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 1.206986644946858 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.8050049963589461, "peer_score": 2.279984246292687, "coverage": 0.1288321950878507, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9936340571128538, "spot_peer_score": 27.142479676402207, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -0.8050049963589461, "peer_archived_score": 2.279984246292687, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.142479676402207, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In 1946, the United States government under Harry Truman offered to buy Greenland from Denmark for \\$100 million](https://apnews.com/article/9d4a8021c3650800fdf6dd5903f68972). In 2019 US president Donald Trump said his administration was [looking into making another offer](https://www.npr.org/2019/08/19/752274659/no-joke-trump-really-does-want-to-buy-greenland). In 2024, US president-elect Donald Trump again suggested the US government would try to purchase the world's largest island. [On January 7, 2025, Donald Trump, Jr. visited Greenland](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/06/europe/trump-greenland-visit-denmark-intl-latam/index.html). The Danish government has repeatedly said that Greenland is not for sale.\n\nA visit by a top US government official may indicate the seriousness of the Trump administration's intentions to purchase the island." } ] }
